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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks as usual for the write-up, Tom. 7 hits and 4 walks in 5 innings probably meant a few mistake pitches. And probably a few mistakes by Oakland batters in not getting more runs, earlier.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but is that causing a short bench, which has been the claim in this thread? Even if Mauer was an iron man starting at 1B, we'd still need someone like Morrison or Austin to start at DH. If we were an NL team, Mauer not starting often enough at 1B would be more of a problem for roster construction. For an AL team, I am not sure it matters all that much.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, my post said "out of the lineup" not off of first base. You are correct that he is spending time at DH too, although that doesn't appear to be causing a short bench situation either.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    In fairness to Mauer, he hasn't been out of the lineup multiple games every week this year -- he was on the DL for 25 games. When he has been on the active roster this year, he has been starting at a 140 game full season pace. (Plus another 11 pinch hitting appearances.) Obviously, he still missed those 25 games, but we were able to replace him on the roster for them. He hasn't been the cause of short benches in 2018.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it particularly matters whether you open at home or on the road, at least for a series or two. You wouldn't want to stretch it any further than that, though.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think what he means is, he doesn't want to see a placeholder at any position. Which the subject of this thread (Forsythe) would represent, in his opinion.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I have no idea about Lowrie's or Oakland's preference, but if history is any guide, there absolutely could be a big money difference -- Oakland is always pretty constrained in that regard. And the debate isn't just Lowrie vs Forsythe. This might be the deepest FA middle infield market I can remember. No reason to think that Forsythe is the best option right now, until we see signs that his power is back and/or other options are off the table.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think age necessarily caused Forsythe's decline, but he is at an age where is is hard to come back from any decline. I don't know how you see him now as closer to the Tampa player than the Dodgers player. The power is still gone, and he's not going to continue being an above-average hitter without it. And if Twins coaches can't get the power to come back in this two-month audition, I am not sure we should be too optimistic about it coming back in 2019 with us either. I should say, I am not opposed to bringing Forsythe back for 2019, but I would want to see that power come back here in 2018 first, or I am going to look a lot harder elsewhere.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Jay wouldn't be on waivers -- he would just be available in the Rule 5 draft. But the order would be the same anyway, and Baltimore has been pretty aggressive with Rule 5, and that was before their 2018 collapse and trades.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. Reed has improved his K rate recently, and has been quite good -- opponents batting only .205/.288/.288 for the season, and only .105/.190/.132 over the last 28 days. I have no idea how that will translate to MLB, but they could easily DL Addison Reed, and 60 day DL Belisle, and call up Jake Reed for a look.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Even in jest, maybe a September promotion wouldn't be bad for Arraez. I am not even sure I would want to rely on Gordon as an injury replacement in early 2019 either.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    And Griffith's frugality. Carew immediately got a massive pay increase when he went to the Angels.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    All prospect trading is different today than it was years ago, not just in August. As MLB salaries rise, veterans have less relative value and cheap prospects have more. (Plus teams have an additional year before prospects can be eligible for Rule 5 now.) Even in the special case of Verlander, 20+ years ago he would have brought back more, and may have needed to be traded by the July 31st non-waiver deadline. About the only non-Verlander way to get a decent prospect in August now would be a fluke of timing -- a player who has both a non-negligible salary and serious health concerns and is thus able to clear waivers on August 1st, but then answers those health concerns quickly thereafter. Ervin was close, except for the "answering those health concerns" part.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, that kid was named David Arias. Bagwell and Smoltz came over in August trades too. But a lot has changed since then.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    So instead you want to sign a 32 year old who has already shown signs of falling off a cliff? Players don't all age the same. Again, if all else was equal, sure I take the 32 year old over the 35 year old. But all else isn't equal here. Just from their current performance levels, you could apply a steeper aging curve to Lowrie and he could still out-perform Forsythe next year.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. Looks like you could get totals through the regular Fangraphs stats page: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2010&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d But as to the question, you could probably pick out some pre-FA guys on that list -- Wright, Utley, Cabrera, etc. -- and compare them to Mauer somehow, both pre-FA and post-FA. I suspect Mauer will come out looking just fine, but it would at least provide some context.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Players are on such a weird schedule already, compared to most of us -- but I wonder what they think of the earlier start time? They would get home a half hour earlier too.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Why do you care about age that much, to completely dismiss Lowrie? If it's for a 1 or maybe 2 year deal, does it really matter? All else being equal, sure you prefer the younger player, but all else is certainly not equal here. Forsythe will be in his age 32 season, coming off a 78 wRC+, compared to Lowrie in his age 35 season, coming off a 128 wRC+.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Meh, the fans are aware of such things. They can give him some extra applause just in case. I think Hunter didn't officially retire before the end of 2015 either. I could imagine it might be a bit of a distraction for him -- and maybe he doesn't want to make up his mind until October.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you would need to show some context to give this illustration meaning. Seeing it for a single player isn't surprising -- virtually all players are underpaid in their early years; those few whose careers survive long enough probably get overpaid later in their careers. I have no idea how Mauer's value/salary ranks among his peers. I suspect it's not that bad, even post-30, but I can't tell just from Mauer's numbers alone.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    And his time travel skills are incredible!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, didn't mean to invoke value in that way. Just saying that very little information has changed in regards to Pineda since last offseason -- everyone knew he needed TJ, that he would get parked on the 60-day DL, and he would be returning late this year. He's not going to get to pitch enough in September to mean much either. A team deciding to pony up meaningful prospects for him this offseason would be similar to a newly-signed free agent getting traded in May -- it generally doesn't happen. By invoking the contract, I just meant that teams probably wouldn't have changed their minds that much about Pineda since last offseason, that's all. (And that goes for the Twins too -- we signed him to be part of the 2019 rotation, and nothing has really changed from that. We certainly don't need to shed his salary, and no new SP have really emerged to take his place yet -- if anything, we might need him more now than we did back then.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Right. What I meant was, if no one outbid the Twins last winter, it stands to reason that no one will be willing to give up meaningful prospects to acquire him and his contract this winter.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think he'd have that much value. He was available pretty cheaply last winter, and will hardly pitch this year.
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