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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. Sounds like Mike Pelfrey from last spring all over again.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Quentin can get that opportunity at AAA. He can't opt out until June 1st. I'm not sure what good there is in giving him priority in March.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about that. A good number of our past roster choices deemed "reliable, professional, consistent" players haven't lasted the season. It sure seems like TR and company perhaps overestimate veteran's abilities to be "reliable, professional, consistent" players at times.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    No 5 man bench. That would mean only a 6 man bullpen, which is almost unheard of these days. Hence why most posters are predicting just two of the guys from this article make the team.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    If the odds are very low that he makes the team, isn't it a little pointless to invest a lot of spring training at bats in him?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Nolasco will not have trade value this spring. I can't emphasize that enough. His last two years have been so bad, and teams are generally loath to make bigger trade additions in March and the early season months. They have their own in-house alternatives they would want to try before giving up an interesting prospect or taking on salary in a suspect like Nolasco.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That wasn't really the suggestion, though. It was about Nolasco's performance this spring. A 3.00 ERA this spring doesn't give much benefit to the Twins. And it's not really about rooting for someone to fail, or not wanting him to do well. It's really just a wish for some finality around a player who probably doesn't have much of a future here. And that finality could come in two different ways, a dominant performance (unlikely) or a poor performance that closes the book (more likely). The worst and most likely outcome is a middling performance. Plenty of guys have been in this zone for the Twins over the years, although Nolasco is owed more money than most of those guys which probably lowers his acceptable "middling" performance threshold in the eyes of the club (although at the same time, at least he's not in any danger of an undeserved extension!).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, keep in mind that timeline match was 2 years ago for Hicks. Since then, he had a nice half-season repeating AA, a mediocre AAA debut, then a pretty darn awful season at AAA last year (68 wRC+, notably worse than even Turner's suspect 2015 line at AA). Still, if his defense is good, he's not a bad guy to stash at AAA right now, but there's probably a reason he went unclaimed by ~16 teams in November, despite existing in a universe where Drew Butera gets offered arbitration and Chris Herrmann nets a prospect in trade.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite. Hicks finished his first AA season right around his 24th birthday, and Turner finished his a few months before his 24th birthday. So Turner 2016 is a pretty good timeline match for Hicks 2014.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Service time should be a non-issue. I haven't found a single pitcher who ever got the "Kris Bryant" treatment (held back for ~2 weeks to get an extra year of control). Even finding a pitcher who got the "Wil Myers" treatment (called up immediately after the super-2 threshold date) is difficult -- Gerrit Cole is the only one who comes to mind. Teams just don't seem to care about service time games with pitchers. Berrios is a fine prospect, but I'm not sure he's the guy to break the mold. EDIT: I found one pitcher, David Price -- he was called up in September 2008, then kept down until late May 2009, and wound up 8 days short of free agency after the 2014 season. Of course, he was the #1 overall pick and #2 prospect in baseball at the time, and was under some serious pitch count restrictions in early 2009 as the Rays were pacing him for his first full pro season (a season in which he wasn't super effective anyway).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    The floor for that article is apparently not making it out of the "draft" stage...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    One thing all of Twins Daily can agree on: if your extension candidate list includes Kurt Suzuki circa 2016, you should probably just shorten your list.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    In the comparison I made of their stats, I was throwing out Gordon's first 2 months at Cedar Rapids. Is that not enough of an adjustment period? At that point Gordon had almost as many career pro plate appearances as Polanco did in rookie league ball. (And it wasn't as if Gordon was just a random high school player before then, he was going to elite national tournaments and showcases since his sophomore year.) And like I showed, going forward from that point, Gordon still under-performed Polanco at the plate, particularly in power and plate approach. I'm not saying that Gordon is destined to be a worse hitter than Polanco or anything, but right now, there is very little evidence to suggest he will clearly overtake Polanco in all 3 of those offensive categories (average, power, and plate approach) as Seth predicted. I don't think most qualitative scouting reports are even predicting that at this point. (Not that he has to overtake Polanco to be more valuable, with his presumed defensive advantage, but that was not the point being discussed.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I like Rosario, and he might not regress much, but I have a feeling he could be a bit of a stagnation candidate offensively. If he's repeating his 2015 season at the plate, and either Arcia bounces back or Kepler adapts quickly to AAA, I would absolutely reduce Rosario's playing time to make room. Having 4 healthy and contributing outfielders is a good problem to have! Especially if 2 of those outfielders are capable in CF (Buxton, Rosario, maybe Kepler), and up to 2 (Sano, Arcia) should get some games at DH too. (And another reason why getting Sano some games at 3B could help the team as well, but I digress.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. It's certainly possible he develops like that offensively, I'm just not sold yet. Fortunately, we don't have to be sold yet, he's got plenty of time to develop.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually BA and BP each bumped Gordon up by 8 spots in their top 100 lists this year. MLB dropped him 58 spots.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, given some of Kepler's health history, Brantley might be a good ceiling comp across the board.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Oh, definitely on the defensive side. I was just responding to Seth's ranking of future offense.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, yeah, if you assume that Gordon is going to be the best of that group in average, power, and approach, he's probably the best. Polanco at age 19 in Cedar Rapids had a .308 AVG .144 ISO, 8.0 BB%, and 11.3 K%. Gordon at age 19 in Cedar Rapids was obviously worse across the board, even giving him the benefit of the doubt and looking only at his stats from June onward: .304 AVG, .102 ISO, 6.6 BB%, 15.1 K%. Polanco has bested those numbers at pretty much every level, and in his career minor league numbers. Gordon's a couple inches taller, but I have a hard time projecting him higher than Polanco's demonstrated average, power, and approach skills right now.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    It's kind of a chicken-or-the-egg thing, though. His draft slot and scouting reports aren't produced in a vacuum, they are just as prone to be influenced directly or indirectly by his bloodlines and opportunity. No doubt he's a solid prospect regardless, but I think it's fair to question things, especially when "Barry Larkin" starts getting thrown around as a ceiling. Although maybe I'm wrong and Gordon really has that power potential and is a victim of his brother's low power profile.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, he had a league average bat in the Midwest League. Not quite sure he can be "at least" a league average bat in MLB, that's 4 levels away. It's quite possible he *can* do it, of course, but I wouldn't put the "at least" qualifier on it, not quite yet, until he's league average closer to MLB and/or starts flashing an above league-average bat for an extended period in the minors.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Good bloodlines actually worry me a little bit in the modern era. Growing up, Gordon had access to the best amateur baseball instruction and opportunities the world has to offer, not to mention exercise and nutrition. And unlike his brother Dee, Nick was focused on following his dad into baseball at a pretty young age, so he was able to take full advantage. The baseline expectation for a guy like that is to show a solid glove and hold his own at the plate, which is pretty much all we've seen from Gordon so far. I think more than other prospects, you really want to see an elite skill demonstrated early in "bloodlines" players if you want to be confident about their future. For Dee, that was a .300 AVG and basestealing. Nick posted a .300 AVG from June onward last year, so hopefully that is a harbinger of a hitting skill. As we seem to say with every prospect, the next year is very important for him.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, although it would be good to define exactly what "floor" means here. For example, it appears that the floors for Buxton and Gordon are roughly equal overall ("plus defensive outfielder" is probably pretty close to "solid average MLB regular"). Maybe Gordon's floor is fair if you are comparing him to other 2014 draftees in A-ball, but it doesn't seem quite right comparing it to a player of Buxton's experience. I like to think of floor as what the player should achieve if they stay healthy, but don't have a breakout and lose a little effectiveness at each new level as they advance. I think all 3 of these guys should reach MLB, but only Buxton is probably guaranteed a long leash as a regular.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I like to say our series victory over Oakland, and Oakland's series victory over us, cancel each other out, and both franchises should be considered without a playoff series win in the 21st century. Not unlike Braves vs. Indians in 1995, or a hypothetical Cubs vs Red Sox series in 2003 would have been. Although in addition to sweeping us, at least Oakland took all of their other first round losses to the full 5 games. After we beat Oakland 3-2, our next 3 series (LAA, NYY, NYY) followed the same format: we won the first game, then got swept in the rest. Our next 3 series after that (OAK, NYY, NYY), we just got swept, period (despite twice having the first two games at home). Admittedly still a small sample, but I'm willing to believe there's something to it more than just chance or a Yankees curse.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Just doing a very quick comparison of BA's top 250 draft prospect rankings from May 17, 2013, and the first 8 rounds of the actual draft (256 picks), I found 166 name matches, of which 29 had a greater difference in rank and actual pick than Gonsalves' difference referenced in the article (83 spots behind his preseason rank). And those ranks were published only 3 weeks before the draft, you can imagine the differences from a preseason list. MLB.com, which apparently ranked him 27th preseason, gave him a final rank of #98 before the draft, and did not reference the suspension at all in its write-up: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/#list=draft
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