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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. It should be noted that Shields has been much better lately. Actually, folks have been citing the roll that Santana has been on -- 2.02 ERA his last 7 starts. Well, Shields has a 2.11 ERA his last 7 starts. (Santana has the edge on peripherals, but they've both been benefitting from a low BABIP.) Shields is up to an 86 ERA+ on the season, which is pretty incredible compared to where it was a month ago. Also, with the money the Padres are picking up for Shields, the White Sox can shop him now with only $24 mil guaranteed left on his deal, as compared to Ervin's remaining $33 mil.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Ah, good catch. I was a stickler about the buyout before, but I've just read $27 mil so many times now, I thought it included the buyout. So yeah, we're at $33 mil remaining guaranteed on Santana, $5 mil this year and $28 mil after. That said, I think a decent offer for Santana is almost as unlikely as any offer for Nolasco. Even if Santana is a decent pitcher on a decent contract, there just isn't a history of that level of pitcher, at that age and with that kind of contract, getting traded at the deadline for a solid return. I think the deadline is a time when teams want to add premium talent (i.e. Chapman), or they want to get a good deal on someone's surplus asset (i.e. Melvin Upton to the Jays). Santana will fall in the latter group.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Was TR under contract for 2017 too? Gardy was definitely under contract after 2014. I don't really see how Antony being under contract for 2017 is meaningful, assuming that Antony would be owed a far smaller "severance package" than either of those guys.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    There is some truth to this. While we all focus on Santana's remaining 2/27 after this season, Ervin is still owed about $5 mil for 2016 too, and given our position, that is just money down the drain. There could be a right mix of prospects and money that makes this interesting, even if it's short of overwhelming.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    They'd have to absorb virtually all of the money, I think. See the Melvin (BJ) Upton deal to Toronto -- San Diego paid $17 of his remaining $22 mil, and Upton has been an above-average hitter and defender this year and last. Baltimore was actually interested in swapping Jimenez for Upton, but apparently they didn't like the financials (Upton is owed about $4 mil more)? Chris Davis mega-deal aside, they are relatively frugal. I doubt they would have the stomach to pick up much of Nolasco's deal. Vance Worley seems about as good a bet as Nolasco to hold down the fort at the back of the rotation. Milone is a different matter -- he's pretty affordable.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Possibly. But at what cost? I have no doubt that multiple teams would be interested in Milone and Nolasco at minimum salary, but at that point it doesn't make much sense for the Twins to dump them (particularly if they have a spot in the pen to stash them).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Not only are these suspect stats, but some of this seems factually incorrect too. 2016 stats Chapman 2.22 WPA, 17:3 SD/MD (85%) Jansen 1.06 WPA, 23:5 SD/MD (82%) 2015-2016 stats Chapman 4.85 WPA, 48:10 SD/MD (82.8%) Allen 3.14 WPA, 50:11 SD/MD (82.0%) Kimbrel 3.05 WPA, 57:13 SD/MD (81.4%) Yup, Chapman is clearly at the end of this list... Add to the fact that the Cubs already had a closer, and there were other closers being offered in trade, and none of these other "dominant" guys are pending FA being offered in trade (with the exception of the already traded and questionable record of Ziegler), I am pretty sure it was Chapman's dominance that made him an acquisition target, more than his closing mojo.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    SD/MD? And WPA? Sounds like you are the one who's looking at closer credentials, not the Cubs. And you know that WPA is a counting stat? And Chapman missed the first month of the season? Chapman ranks 8th among relievers in WPA this year at Fangraphs, but has a higher WPA/IP rate than 6 of the guys ahead of him. (Edit: Coke to Brock!) If you want to diss Chapman because of the off-field stuff, that's fine, but it doesn't change the fact that he is clearly one of the most dominant relievers in the league (a reputation that isn't earned in a year or two by SD/MD and WPA). And his trade to the Cubs is primarily based on that record, not his closer credentials, and thus has no bearing in the thread subject at hand (Kintzler).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Well stated. The jury is obviously still out on Buxton in MLB, but it was probably better to pick top 2 in 2012 too than #5 (the oft injured Kyle Zimmer). That year the Astros leveraged their #1 into an under-slot Correa and above-slot McCullers later. Not that #4 or #5 picks are bad players, but you generally don't have the same shot at elite talents or leveraging slots like you do at #1 or #2. (That said, from their August/September records, it looks like the Twins may have been more or less tanking at the end of the season from 2011-2013.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Makes me wish we had actually tried that -- Pelfrey has managed 0.6 bWAR since he returned from surgery in 2013. In that same time frame, Kintzler has managed 2.8 bWAR....
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, Palka still has a couple months of being 24 years old. Let's not age him prematurely. So you're saying, an astute GM might flip Palka for catching depth this winter?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I don't see that. When we acquired him last year, Jepsen had a career 0.6 HR/9 and 8.5 K/9 in consistently high leverage work. Kintzler has stepped up nicely, but even this year he has a 1.2 HR/9 and a 5.9 K/9, and similar rates for his career (0.9 HR/9, 6.5 K/9). For his career, he's been a neutral leverage pitcher. He's more valuable than, say, Blaine Boyer, but I think his effectiveness is probably viewed as closer to Boyer on the spectrum than even Jepsen 2015, much less the arms that went before Jepsen last year and the arms that are being swapped and discussed so far this year.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh? Are you seriously arguing the Chapman isn't one of the most dominating RP in the game? He may not be the "most" dominant this year, but that wasn't the claim -- he is clearly one of the most dominant, and is valued according to that. Chapman's K% ranks among qualified relievers after his rookie year: 2016: 6th 2015: 1st 2014: 1st 2013: 1st 2012: 2nd K-BB% ranks (eliminating the overly wild strikeout guys) 2016: 6th 2015: 3rd 2014: 1st 2013: 3rd 2012: 2nd Oh, and he has a 1.91 ERA since 2012, and a 1.76 FIP, lest you are concerned that his peripherals haven't led to results. And a 2.01 ERA and 1.93 FIP this year.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Those weren't the only options. They could have tried to pass Herrmann through waivers and outright him to AAA, and if he was really as interchangeable with Juan Centeno as you claim, it shouldn't have been too much of a problem to time such a transaction -- an out of options Centeno cleared waivers himself in November. Read the article again. Nick, to whom I was responding, most definitely completely ignores Herrmann's 2016 performance. There is no mention of it at all in the article, even just to dismiss it as a small sample size, outlier, etc. Which sort of matters when he wants to conclude the trade is a "big win" based on the 2016 minor league performance of Palka. I'd even be willing to consider the trade as win for Minnesota right now, but I think such a conclusion needs a more honest accounting of all of the facts, and the fact is that Herrmann has looked like a useful MLB player in 2016 at a position of need for the Twins, and it isn't all that clear that Palka will ever exceed that threshold. (The "X" factor is, of course, if the Twins have coaching/development problems that were stifling Herrmann here.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought you just said that Herrmann lacking options was a big negative? That's certainly a difference that he and Centeno don't share with Hicks, who is not only optionable this year, but again in 2017. Being able to more freely audition catchers, in an org with a catching deficiency, seems like it would be more than a negligible or minute difference.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Until they allow trading of draft picks, and remove the draft spending caps, those examples aren't really relevant to present day MLB. (IIRC, Appel fell in the draft and declined to sign for a lower slot, so he re-entered and went higher the next year. He would not have refused to sign had he originally been selected #1.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Can't tell if serious, but Berrios is well past that point, this season. He was only up for ~3 weeks earlier, and we're about 7 weeks past the assumed Super 2 threshold date.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Hasn't happened often, and not recently. (Aiken chose not to sign because of a reduced offer.) A player taken #1 would probably be nuts to pass up a slot offer.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Completely downplay? I said he's a decent prospect. "Completely downplay" would be to call the trade a "big win" for the Twins, while completely ignoring the post-trade performance of the player the Twins gave up...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Depending on how you value Hu and Tapia, it seems that TR ultimately paid the equivalent of Bastardo's contract (2/12) for Jepsen. And of course, Perkins. Has TR's bullpen plan really been effective? Or just not as bad as it could have been? Sounds like a familiar refrain -- last year it was Boyer, before that Duensing, Fien, and Burton. Another reminder to not count your trade returns from Abad and Kintzler before they hatch...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    So does TR deserve criticism for not putting Kintzler and Abad in the same bucket to start the season, and paying Perkins, Jepsen, and Fien and pilfering May from the rotation instead? I mean, it is nice that some guys are performing in the pen right now, but TR spent ~$13 mil (and a potential SP) on his pen and watched it fail first. That seems to offset whatever credit TR deserves at this point for Abad, Kintzler, and Boshers (pending a trade for "actual value").
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Wait, so Herrmann was expendable because we had John Hicks (although I seem to recall he was claimed after Herrmann was traded)... and in the very next point, John Hicks was expendable for David Murphy too. Got it. What great catching depth we must have! Why are people worried about the position at all going forward? Seems crazy, the way you portray it.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Palka is of actual value? He is an interesting corner power prospect. I am not sure we could turn around and trade him for anything more than Herrmann today. He might have more value in the future, IF he can make that big step to MLB and provide enough offense to offset his defensive/positional limitations. It is also pretty amusing to read how valuable that catchers are, hence why Herrmann was able to be traded for "actual value", but then see those same people completely ignore any performance or value that Herrmann provides...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Them are some very small samples. I think the most encouraging thing about Herrmann's past batting history is the K/BB rates. He's still not looking good in MLB in the K department, although he's better than 2015. But if he can add some power to the mix, and holds his own in the BABIP department, he could be solid.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Who the heck are you responding too? No one is expecting a .371 BABIP from Herrmann. I think Thrylos probably overstated Herrmann's batting history, but I doubt even he thinks this is a sustainable BABIP, or he wouldn't have started his first post with "I don't know about the Palka trade" -- it would be a clear win for Arizona if he thought that BABIP was remotely sustainable. Please read these comments in the context of Nick's "big win" statement in the article.
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