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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Provus even did that on the radio! Before he had to sheepishly report that the ball was caught by the shortstop...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Escobar is having a great year, although he's been exclusively a third basemen (save for 1 game at second base).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Luck is the residue of design, perhaps?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    The 16 inning game in Puerto Rico accounted for a third of those 21 extra innings. Plus a 14 inning game vs KC,and that's over half.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Watch a little closer -- he may have been tapping out the pitch names in Morse code too!
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Great game last night. I wonder if Smeltzer will stick around? They could certainly stick to a 5 man rotation despite the off days. Smeltzer would be in line to start the opening game in Cleveland next Tuesday. Although one would have to imagine that Cruz and/or Garver would be activated by then too, which could mean two of Arraez, Astudillo, and Littell have to get optioned to AAA. (Hopefully Buxton stays off the IL!)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think they care too much about balance -- they care about money. That's why they raised the international bonus pool age up to 25, from 23. If there's not a direct cost savings, I don't know if they really care about changing the rules to shut Stewart out. I don't think the foreign league path is going to be lucrative for anyone but unusual cases like this (as opposed to the aforementioned age rule change, which potentially affected a number of Cubans, Japanese, etc.). That said, reading further, I see Japan requires 9 years before true free agency. So even at the end of this 6 year deal, Stewart would have to be posted. But the 6 year term suggests this deal was reached with goal of posting Stewart at age 25, when he will qualify as an international player and bonus pool limits won't apply either. And the posting system isn't quite as wild as it once was -- it's basically just 20% or less of the player's MLB contract. So if a MLB team wants to sign Stewart for 2/20 at age 25, they'd also pay $4 mil to his Japanese team, for a total outlay of $24 mil. https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3560
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    They like 8 man bullpens more than 13 man staffs. And they'd still have an 8 man bullpen, even if they optioned Smeltzer and activated a position player for a few days.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not really 3 UTIL guys, though, at least not in a redundant sense. Marwin covers OF/1B. With all 3, you can let Marwin do his OF/1B thing, you can spot start Adrianza or Arraez in the middle infield, and still have the other one available for pinch running (for Cruz/Sano/Cron/catcher).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    3rd catcher isn't that useful if Garver can't play 1B/DH (due to the presence of Cruz/Sano/Cron). Given our lineup, I think I'd prefer having two pinch runners in Adrianza and Arraez, rather than a 3rd catcher in Astudillo.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    You think Smeltzer is sticking around until Pineda returns, despite the off days? I guess he could earn it with a good start tonight, but my gut says they're going to use the spot to postpone any Arraez/Astudillo demotion.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I never said it wouldn't work. I just took issue with your statement "Pineda can probably have a sub-2.00 ERA as a bullpen arm", that's all.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    With Sano back, and assuming Cruz comes back, and Cron hitting well -- Garver is going to need to play catcher to get at-bats. He's not going to have 1B and DH available as much now as they were earlier in the season. Hence, less opportunity for Astudillo to catch. That's part of my thinking, in why I'd consider demoting Astudillo soon. Whereas Adrianza and Arraez would seem to still have usefulness as utility infielders and pinch runners, with Marwin as a fourth outfielder.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Astudillo can be better in those areas -- if he has a good BABIP and/or power. Which is what he flashed last year in MLB. But in the last 4 years, he's only got about 225 PAs with a good BABIP, and about 750 now with a low BABIP. It may be a regular part of his game at higher levels of competition?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    "Vote up to 5 times every 24 hours. Voting ends June 21, 2019 at 4 p.m. ET." Dang, that's a lot of work! And the bots will still probably win...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I know you frequently warn about sample sizes, and it's often a fair warning, but I don't think it's necessarily appropriate here. There are appropriate times to simply favor the hot hand, and this might be one of them, and citing the slash lines here is an acceptable form of evidence that I wouldn't want to discourage. (Obviously we and the Twins can consider more evidence than that, if you have any to offer. But from my eye test, it's not as if Adrianza has been taking garbage at-bats or anything, and Astudillo doesn't have much of a track record of success either.) They're not deciding who to release. It's just bench spot vs. AAA. Those slash stats, combined with the fact that Astudillo has options, can't pinch run, and may be no better than 3rd on our depth chart at any position -- I think it's potentially a valid choice to send him down soon. He can always be recalled later.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree, I wouldn't expect them to send down Astudillo as soon as they activate Garver. But assuming Garver gets through his rehab with no trouble, it may come shortly after -- like at the end of next week, when they plan/hope to reactivate Pineda (June 7-8).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a pretty bold forecast, for a guy who's never made a relief appearance in his MLB career. I'm not sure it's that straightforward, either in terms of performance or effects on his knee.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't doubt Pineda's knee is actually sore. But I'm guessing lots of ballplayers experience similar soreness without it necessarily warranting an IL trip. Whether or not to put a player on the IL is the subjective part, and all kinds of factors can influence that subjective decision: the ready availability of a replacement, innings control, upcoming off days, other roster moves, etc.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    It doesn't sound like Garver would return before Saturday: https://www.mlb.com/news/mitch-garver-heads-to-rehab-assignment I would assume Cruz is ahead of that, but the last I read, he didn't swing a bat all weekend. (He previously took batting practice last week, though, so maybe it was just extra rest once they decided they weren't going to activate him for Milwaukee?) https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-nelson-cruz-not-taking-swings-with-bat/
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps they figured they didn't need Cruz vs the White Sox (correct), and they were postponing his activation until they did this little starting pitcher dance with Pineda and Smeltzer? Although some might say we could have used him vs Milwaukee... Assuming they send down Smeltzer and activate Cruz before the Tampa series, that lets them keep Arraez, Astudillo, and all the current relievers on the roster too, until Garver or Pineda is ready to come back.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    B-Ref says Boston was 41-33 vs. .500 or better teams in 2018, 3rd best mark in MLB: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018-standings.shtml#expanded_standings_overall::21
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The primary factor is going to be population. Although I'll add that a fully new park has a different effect than a renovated one, even a well-regarded renovated one. And of course, it's a lot easier to fill a football stadium 8 times a year than a baseball stadium 81 times a year! The last place 2019 Royals are on track to out-draw the first place 2018 Chiefs in the next month. But I am sure there are plenty of other ways to measure the popularity of football over baseball in KC.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    True, but no one said the World Series or dominance is necessarily the bar for "respect" here. The Yankees have won the last two AL Wild Card games. The 2017 Yankees beat the defending AL champs Cleveland in the division series, and almost beat the eventual world champ Astros in a 7-game ALCS. The 2018 Yankees lost in the ALDS, but even that was to the 108 win juggernaut and eventual world champ Red Sox. If the Twins and Yankees have roughly similar records in the 2019 regular season so far, and someone wants to "power rank" the Yankees ahead of the Twins, I don't really see a problem with that.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Once we put Pineda on the IL, Perez would have faced Tampa Bay anyway -- it's a 4-game series after the off day Wednesday. This just changes his Tampa start from Sunday to Thursday. It does allow Perez to face Cleveland next week, though. (Assuming Smeltzer goes back down after tonight's start, and we go with a 4 man rotation for a little bit.)
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