Otto von Ballpark

Sure, which is one reason I specifically mentioned K rate. A dramatic improvement there would probably be more interesting at this point than a good slash line. But even if he doesn't improve or impress, I think he needs the opportunity. And, in my other posts, I also spelled out how I am not really looking for him to prove anything more before opening day 2019. To me, he's already proven his inconcistency and unreliability. The only thing we can really do is give him chances when possible (like September 2018) and prepare a viable alternative outfield (offseason and April 2019).

No, that's not really my position. Let me put it this way: will you be comfortable, after your shutdown, of penciling Buxton in as your opening day CF in 2019? If not, then why bother shutting him down? You still have an option for 2019, you can use it and achieve the same goal (extra year of control) before May 1st. If yes, then that sounds pretty reckless, both from a player and a team perspective. With the performance challenges he already had, plus basically the lost season, it seems highly questionable to take away his last shot at healthy* high-level reps before the offseason and opening day 2019, replace them with instructs, and throw him back into the fire at the first opportunity and just expect it is all going to work out somehow. I am not saying his September 2018 MLB stats will be super-meaningful, or critical to any chance of future success. All I am saying is that it's an opportunity for him to finally play and I don't see a compelling reason to just skip it. The extra year of control is not exclusive to the shut down plan. If anything, we should plan to option him in 2019 regardless. But he needs to play when possible. * And we should be able assume he is healthy, by any reasonable definition. Even if they want to give him extra days off (and there is still plenty of time to slowly adjust that this season, if we so desire). If he's not healthy, he shouldn't be playing anywhere right now. Obviously if he get hurt again, or he really struggles at Rochester, you can change course. If he needs to be rebuilt in Ft Myers like Sano, then so be it. (But if you think that today, then he should be in Ft Myers today, nothing gained by waiting.)

You started this tangent by saying "I’d be surprised if it was $1 mil" and now you are saying a good comp got $1.2 mil, 4 years ago. (Actually 5 seasons/offseasons ago -- Bourjos got that award after 2013, Buxton will get his after 2018.) Even if you think he is slightly worse than Bourjos, that sounds like you think he'll get a million. FWIW, Bourjos and the Cards settled at $1.2 mil, and included $150k in PA incentives, so the actual value of the deal was a tick higher. Another oddity with Bourjos is that the Angels made him a bench player for a full season AFTER his big year -- 101 games, only 195 PA. Bench players are a lower salary class than starters, and I'm guessing that gave the Cardinals some leverage in arbitration, not unlike how an injury or AAA demotion might affect a starter like Buxton (perhaps not as much, but offsetting some). Also, 5 years is a long time. It is quite possible that Bourjos did not have enough defensive data available to fully convince an arbitrator of his defensive value -- Statcast didn't even come around until 2015. Buxton will be able to point to a stronger correlation between defensive metrics and higher salaries. Bourjos didn't have a gold glove like Buxton either, for a more traditional defensive value argument. Soler's 100 OPS+ over 2015-2016 is not that much better than Buxton's 92 over 2016-2017. And it is more than offset by baserunning and defense. And there's a point of diminishing returns to a bad OPS+ -- in similar playing time (or lack thereof), a guy with a 36 isn't going to be considered appreciably better than a guy with a 5. They're both just bad. None of this is to say Buxton will get $2 mil. I've conceded my potential $2 mil guess (which was just that, a guess) was likely too high. But $1 mil seems like the floor here.

Won't Wade and Austin be facing the same suspect pitching, in the same amount of PAs as Buxton? What's that going to tell you? Wade in particular has virtually zero shot of starting on opening day 2019, where presumably Buxton does. Austin has hardly played OF in 3 years. I'd actually be a little surprised if the Twins call up Wade this September, and more surprised if they give him any significant PAs. If we are just wishcasting, why not use 1B and DH to maximize opportunities for younger players? DH might be particularly good for Buxton if you are concerned about health. I also think "September pitching is worse" is frequently overstated. Sure, some new pitchers usually get called up, but it's not like the whole staffs or rotations get turned over on September 1st, nor do minor league lifers suddenly see significant September action. I'd wager the percentage of PAs for a particular batter against low quality "September callup" pitching is not meaningful, or at least not meaningfully different than other months. (With expanded bullpens, you might even wind up at a platoon disadvantage more often in September too.) Like I posted upthread, if you really want reps for Buxton but you also want that extra year of control, play him in September, and then option him for 29 days to start 2019.

Remember, the Twins could have optioned Sano just a couple days earlier back in June, and they would have stood to gain an extra year of control if Sano suffered an injury in the minors and couldn't return to the majors in 2018. They didn't do it. Suggests that perhaps the timing of Buxton's demotion was not service-time related either, and if he is healthy enough to return for Rochester, he should be healthy enough to return to MLB yet this season.

Rochester plus Minnesota, Buxton had potentially 46 games remaining in 2018 when this article was written, over 7 weeks. Could get 120-150 PA there if we wanted. Even if we want to give him ample rest, and he only plays 4 games a week, he will probably be pushing 100 PA. And hypothetically, if 120-150 is where it stabilizes, I have to imagine that a significant enough improvement at 100 PA could be meaningful. Say a guy was previously at 30% K rate, but managed 100 PA at 15%. I wouldn't call that worthless information. And for that matter, even if he continued struggling over his next 100 PA, or 120-150 or whatever -- there is value to knowing that on October 1st this year, rather than on May 25th next year. Not just for the player's offseason prep, but the team's too -- trades/FA, waiver claims (could be big in spring training), etc.

I said Franco had a clear advantage in games. He was just an example of guys getting awards based in part on earlier seasons. I don't think Buxton will get close to his award, but he's not getting $650k either. May's career is 0.3 bWAR. Peak of 1.4. 2018 won't help, but Buxton is going to get some credit for 2017, and even some for 2016 (1.8 bWAR in just over half a season). If you want a comp for a guy coming off a terrible season, there is Jorge Soler last winter. 110 PA of 36 OPS+. MLBTR still estimated he would have gotten $1.1 mil as a super-2 in arbitration last winter, and his previous seasons were no better than Buxton either (slighty better bat but far worse glove and baserunning, and fewer PAs too). Not a stretch at all to think Buxton might get $1.5 mil, even if you think my initial guess of $2 mil was too high.

Peeking at last year's arb awards, I see Maikel Franco got $2.95 mil as a super-2 coming off a -0.2 bWAR season. Obviously gets points over Buxton for staying on the field, but Franco was 2 years removed from being a plus-hitter, and obviously didn't have a gold glove. $1.5-2 mil for Buxton wouldn't seem outlandish. Should be interesting to follow.

Could get enough at bats to show improved K rate, that stabilizes pretty quickly, no? And could be a good indicator for 2019.

Career 4.5 fWAR, 7.0 bWAR already. 5.2 bWAR last year alone, plus a Gold Glove. It's not all based on this season, or on basic counting stats anymore. Plouffe got $2.35 mil as a super-2 and had't done too much, 1.5 career bWAR at that point. Even ignoring his poor defense, it was 4.6 oWAR in 1351 PA, compared to 3.5 oWAR in 1074 for Buxton. And that was 5 years ago. If Buxton isn't super-2 and surpasses 3 years service time in September, note that Escobar got $2.1 mil in his first arb season, with 3.9 bWAR, 4.1 oWAR in 1243 career PA. Even got a raise the next year to $2.6 mil after a dismal -0.7 bWAR campaign. Maybe Buxton won't get $2 mil this winter, I am no expert -- but I don't think he'll get a token award barely above the minimum either.

Like I said, he could get $2 mil this winter in arbitration. Probably $2 mil minimum for 2020 too, even if he does nothing -- he's not getting cut in the next year. Already got $6 mil signing bonus, he's made ~$1.6 mil in MLB salaries to date. The lucrative Sheboygan saugage endorsement. Already has a pension, plus lifetime health care. Not sure guaranteeing $25 mil right now is all that important, when he already has ~$12 mil without hedging bets on his future.

I get that, but it's not so simple. I mean, his injuries this year were migraines, a broken toe from a foul ball, and a wrist sprain. I'm not an "exercise" kind of guy but I don't know what you can do about those first two. And the last one, he had a similar wrist issue going into last September, and wound up with a solid .790 OPS that month. I have no idea what his offseason regimen was last year, but if you are willing to play him for 3 weeks at AAA right now, health-wise I don't see why you shouldn't be willing to play him for 4 weeks in MLB after that.

True, but close. Buxton and May were both optioned directly from rehab stints this summer.

It's not just giving away leverage, though. It's also giving away our only chance to see him face major league competition until spring training 2019 (if not opening day 2019, depending on how you view spring training). So you're also giving away a potentially important evaluation opportunity (do we need to acquire another outfielder this offseason? for how much?), and possibly a development opportunity too. You can still get the same extra-year-of-control leverage after calling him up in September, if you option him for 29 days in 2019. Maybe that's the best plan, to maximize his opportunity?

I assume he's healthy now, or he wouldn't be playing at AAA. (At least, I hope we're not rushing him back again!) So let's be clear: he doesn't need to be shut down to "get" healthy, or this would be an easy decision. He should be able to "stay" healthy with a shutdown... but only for as long as you are willing to shut him down.

Buxton is probably guaranteed a decent amount this winter in arbitration ($2 mil, perhaps?). That's pretty much his baseline for the next few years too, even if he doesn't get healthy or produce -- someone will keep betting on that potential through a few arb seasons in his mid-20's. If he's in any way useful during that time, he's probably going to get $25 mil. Trevor Plouffe got $19.65 million through 4 arbitration seasons.

Among healthy position players with MLB experience on the 40-man roster, there aren't many that get sent home in September. Dozier in 2012, Hicks in 2013. Both of those guys were rookies, though, and weren't hitting at AAA either. Jorge Polanco in 2014-2015, but he had only been an "emergency" callup those seasons. -- not much AAA action yet. He also played winter ball that offseason. If Buxton can hit well and stay healthy the next few weeks, he will have a stronger case for a September recall than any of these guys. Albeit maybe not strong enough to win a grievance, but maybe that's not the best criteria for the Twins to use either.

With expanded rosters, this would probably only make a grievance more inevitable or perhaps even winnable.

FWIW, Gagne was a 3.9 bWAR player in 1987. He averaged 3.2 bWAR and 470 PA per year from 1987-1991. Kepler is currently averaging about 2 bWAR per 470 PA. Bush, Smalley, and Larkin were not everyday players those seasons either.

Well, that's far easier to justify in modern MLB with a pitcher. You can even send them down just to control their innings. For a pitcher, you're trying to avoid the bright line of surgery which has longer-term benefits. For a position player, are you really avoiding anything other than them getting hurt that month? But absolutely, if there is any specific concern about Buxton's health (presumably the wrist at this point), you could shut him down. But in that case, I'm not sure you'd risk playing him at AAA for 3 weeks right now either.

I don't think Buxton has any incentive to sign anything at this point that doesn't still present significant risk for the Twins.

Nick, I just scanned that article, and the names listed were Bryant, Gregory Polanco, Singleton, and Springer. Those were all players who had their initial MLB call-ups manipulated. The Buxton situation is different -- this is a player who has already been on the MLB roster, he's already represented by the player's union, and he will have nowhere else to play in September. I don't think Buxton would win a grievance, but if he performs at AAA and demonstrates health over the next few weeks, it certainly wouldn't be frivolous. And even if the Twins can "win" the grievance process, in some ways they might "lose" just be letting it get to that point. If we were talking about a pitcher, it would be far easier to justify the "shut down" plan. But I think a position player like Buxton makes that a less convincing case.

Gordon was already trending down in some preseason ranks -- #93 BA, #80 MLB. For awhile I thought it would be balanced out a bit by his hot start at AA, but he now has a 49 wRC+ in 324 PA at AAA on the season. Remember when JP Crawford struggled mightily at AAA a few years ago? He still wound up with a 90 wRC+ in 385 PA (and he was still a year younger than Gordon is now). Since the day MLB released their midseason update list (June 21), which still had Gordon at 77, his wRC+ is 34 in 198 PA. Not sure where he placed on BA's midseason list, since that appears to be entirely behind a paywall now. Prospectus was the high one on Gordon preseason - #35 - and they still had him #33 in their midseason update a month ago, although that list didn't include any new 2018 draftees/signees, so it was probably still a drop.

Ha! No. I think 1 year MLB service time is the max for AFL players. Could do winter ball, but like all players -- do you want him to risk injury in winter ball?

But it's kind of a catch-22. On one hand, 2018 is indeed lost, so perhaps there's no sense wasting service time in 2018. But if 2019 is important, you want the player ready on opening day if at all possible, so maybe September 2018 isn't really a "waste" of service time after all. With an option remaining for 2019, I'm increasingly thinking that it might be a win-win to promote him this September (assuming he's healthy and performing in Rochester, of course). Either it benefits him toward becoming a good MLB hitter again by opening day 2019, in which case we'll all be very thankful given the alternative. Or if it doesn't, he will probably need 29 days in the minors next year anyway.