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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    A bench player that can only play 2B/3B isn't all that useful.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    This is correct. The only remaining MLB teams without a PH HR in 2018 are Detroit, the Yankees, and Seattle. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018-situational-batting.shtml Not to jinx the Twins, but Detroit and Seattle haven't hit one since 2016.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Why do you say that? Dozier Kinsler Lowrie Murphy LeMahieu Cabrera Forsythe Plus infielders Escobar and Machado, plus some utility guys like Descalso and Marwin Gonzalez, and shortstops like Iglesias, Hechavarria, Mercer, and Galvis. (And over at third base, Donaldson, Moustakas, and Beltre.) Not all of these guys are great, of course, but this looks as deep of an infield market as I can remember. Easily beats the market from last winter, where by far the biggest infield contract was Zack Cozart at 3/38, and Mike Moustakas struggled to get any deal at all.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Forsythe can't play SS, which is a bit of a problem for a "utility guy" in the era of short benches. And assuming he will have trade value down the line is a stretch, considering he doesn't right now.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Am I missing something? I searched sold listings for "royce lewis first bowman chrome" on eBay and they were all much cheaper than the number you referenced: https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=royce+lewis+first+bowman+chrome&_sacat=0&rt=nc&LH_Sold=1&LH_Complete=1
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    So which is it -- were they smart for picking him up, or foolish for letting him go? I guess the Pawtucket Red Sox can technically be called "the Red Sox." Seriously, Haley did make a mop-up cameo for Boston earlier but is not currently on their 25-man roster. I must have missed the poster crediting our postseason berth to Haley. Usually you like to mock opinions on this forum -- is that really the one you want to embrace?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I assume he is suggesting trading Kepler for something of value, and then signing Gonzalez to replace him. But even if you can get good value for Kepler (which I sort of doubt, he's largely stagnated and his salary jumps this offseason with arbitration), it's probably a bad idea to replace him with Gonzalez regardless.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    That seems underwhelming. The offense would be the same as 2018, but sub Forsythe for Dozier, and Carlos Gonzalez for Kepler? Gonzalez is on a 1/5 deal right now. Forsythe could be 1/2 or something cheap with incentives. Escobar, I would be pretty surprised if he got more than 3/39 and he could get less. That's like less than $20 mil in 2019 payroll. Cheap but not terribly good or efficient. Unless you think we can sign both Kershaw and Keuchel or something? You'd be giving up on Sano at 3B, and adding an outfielder who can't play CF.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It looks like prices you are quoting are for Bowman "refractor" cards, which are extremely limited versions of their regular cards. Is that correct? I haven't collected cards in many, many years, but it seemed like these prices were way off unless there was some kind of gimmick to make them rare.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Machado might be the only infielder who can afford to be so choosey. Murphy will be 34 and only got a 3 year deal last time. Lowrie will be 35. Escobar is younger, but has only started once on opening day aside from Polanco's suspension. They're not going to find "ideal scenarios" where they won't be subject to competition at 2B from younger players in 2-3 years. If anything, Minnesota have an advantage by being able to offer an everyday 1B/DH spot for that eventuality (or 3B, in the case of Escobar).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I might put Harper ahead of Bard. Although that might say more about Bard than about Harper... Like Bard, Harper will also be eligible for minor league free agency this offseason (again) if not added to the 40-man roster. They seem like pretty fungible AAA depth.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Drake is over 2 years service time now, so we could potentially control him for 4 years after 2018. He won't be arbitration eligible until after 2019. Although he has no minor league options remaining, so he's stuck on the 25-man roster. And even if we waive him and he clears, he can elect free agency rather than accept an assignment to Rochester. Oh, and he turns 32 this winter.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Bard's K% at AAA is 25.4% this year, down considerably from his 2017 mark of 34.7%. I think he's pretty much without hope of anything more than a AAAA type career at this point, if even that. He's eligible for minor league free agency this winter too, if not added to the 40-man.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Forsythe still has ~$2 mil remaining in 2018 salary. Getting rid of some of that wouldn't be *nothing*, exactly. Although I don't see a fit on any remaining contenders. Schoop has been awful for the Brewers but they're probably not looking for yet another external infielder. Maybe if someone wants a RH pinch hitter?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    And just so I don't seem too anti-Forsythe, ZiPS still pegs him around a 2 WAR player. You could certainly do worse. But that's also assuming power (.137-.160 ISO) that he hasn't shown in 2 years now, which might be an unnecessary risk to take, given all of our resources and needs.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to pick on you, but what moves do you see that would require saving this money in the infield? Check out the potential FA list here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html Keep in mind, Murphy last signed for 3/37, and Lowrie for 4/28 -- and now they are 3-4 years older. Dozier and Escobar probably aren't getting any more than those deals either. I think you might be overrating the financial savings of signing Forsythe for 1/4 or whatever, and under-rating the decrease in quality (and meaningful position flexibility -- a guy who can cover SS, or whose bat could play at 1B/DH could be huge for this team).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you are actually over-rating Gordon here. I think he gets his feet wet in MLB some time in the 2019 season, but I doubt he actually forces himself into the lineup at 2B before season's end. There's absolutely no reason we can't sign someone to play 2B and give them reasonable assurance that the job is theirs for 2019.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    In some ways, he hasn't actually rebounded from his LAD form. His isolated power (SLG minus AVG) with the Twins is .082, virtually the same as it was with the Dodgers this year (.083). His combined LAD/MIN season BABIP is now up to .316, above his career mark of .302, almost up to his career high of .323. And his season wRC+ is still only 82, and he's barely above replacement overall (0.3 fWAR). Another way to look at it: his OPS with the Twins is 1.031, with a .537 BABIP. Substitute a .317 BABIP, and that OPS plummets to .680 -- which, lo and behold, is very close to his mediocre combined LAD/MIN OPS of .656. (And that's assuming that his drop in K% stays -- career 20.5%, down to 14.8% with the Twins. Normalize that, and his Twins OPS would actually be .642, worse than his Dodgers OPS.) I'm not trying to rain on any parades -- Forsythe has absolutely had a couple successful weeks. But there's almost nothing "projectionable" in that two week performance at all.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really "tons of flexibility." You could shift him to 3rd. He can't play shortstop, and his bat likely won't play at first or DH. If Sano is healthy and capably manning third, you're basically stuck with Forsythe at second, or on the bench as one of two utility infielders (you'd need someone else to play short).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    What's even better than acquiring an expiring contract? Acquiring an expired contract!
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt. I wasn't trying to exclude earlier years, just noting with some surprise that he had managed to stay pretty darn healthy the last 2 years. 2015 he missed a month or so midseason, still managed close to 500 PA combined minors/majors. 2014 was a bad one, similar to 2018, pretty much a lost season in the minors. Not good that he has had 2 such seasons in 6 years as a pro... Maybe worth noting his wrist has been a consistent source of trouble. In spring training 2014, he injured it on a dive in the field; he aggravated it in May on a slide into a base. September 2017 he reported wrist issues but played through it, and now in July 2018 he was on the DL for a wrist sprain -- just from swinging the bat, apparently? It hasn't even been HBPs. I don't know what you do about that. Some really cool wristbands? In between, there has been a concussion (2014), thumb sprain (2015), groin strain (2017), migraines and a fractured toe (2018)...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, just noticed on Buxton's transaction log, as much as he does seem to be injured -- he didn't spend a single day on the DL all of 2016, and only one 15 day stint in mid-2017. Hopefully 2018 remains the outlier of his MLB career!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I can't think of any player who has signed extension at a point when he is struggling as badly as Buxton has in 2018. Keep in mind Buxton is still just a few months removed from talking extension with the Twins last spring, when Nick floated a 6/80 idea here and ultimately a deal didn't get done. I am guessing neither side wants to dramatically alter their position to get a deal done now either. Just to use some numbers to illustrate, maybe Buxton was looking for that $80 mil last spring and the club was countering with $50 mil. Earlier this thread, Chief threw out $25 mil (which honestly seems appropriate now given his awful year) -- but if you're Buxton, and just turned down $50 mil in pursuit of $80 mil a few months ago, are you really going to be receptive to $25 mil now? And if you are the Twins, you might be insulting him to try reopening negotiations at this point with a dramatically lower offer than last time, especially if you explicitly invoked the potential extra year of control thing as leverage. I mean, even if on some level it might make some sense for both sides, it just isn't realistic to make it happen right now.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    A September call-up could also provide a bit more data on the "slow starter" theory. I don't really know why, and it could just be random, but the guy has started off very bad in all 4 of his MLB seasons, and finished solid-to-great in his first 3 so far too.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Did he have a foot injury in early 2016 and early 2017 too?
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