Wookiee of the Year

The Stewart ranking has to be the biggest surprise, for me. Not that he's seen an incredible drop-off this season, but I just didn't realize he'd done much to improve his prospect stock. Had I made a list of Prospect Risers and Prospect Sinkers so far this season, I wouldn't have put Stewart's name on either one--which means seeing him at #19 is not something I saw coming. Certainly no complaints! EDIT: I'll add I've got no problem with Buxton at #2 and Bryant at #1. Biggest surprise of the Futures Game was that Bryant didn't hit a home run. And I'm confident once Buxton can prove his wrist injury is completely behind him and go back to putting up eye-popping numbers, he'll reclaim the top spot.

Derek Jeter. (gag)

I agree with the general sentiment of the article--that managers and especially trainers need to be receptive to their players telling them about soreness or early signs of an injury, and teams should work to create a culture where players volunteer this information without fear of not looking macho. However, I just don't think this test case applies. As the article states, it took some coaxing to get Nolasco to open up. I'm much more concerned it went down like this: "C'mon, Ricky, look at the way you've been pitching lately. Something must be wrong." "No, Coach, I feel fine." "Ricky, think about it. These aren't the results we want from a major league starter. The results you're showing are more like a bullpen pitcher. But if that's because of injury, well, I don't see any need to move you to the bullpen--we can put you on the DL, let you recover from whatever the problem is, work on your mechanics in the minors, and then you can come back and start for us again when you can pitch like a major leaguer. What do you say?" "Oh, I see. Well, Coach, now that you mention it, my arm is a little sore..." Than like this: "Ricky, I know I've told you I expect you to go out there every five days, no matter how you feel, but now I'm curious how you feel." "Uh... N-no problems, Coach. I, uh, I feel fine." "You sure about that? I don't normally want to hear it if you think you're hurt, but right now, I want you to open up with me." "But Coach, when I tried to talk to you earlier this year, you told me to grind it out." "Well, I guess I've had a change of heart. I don't want to hear it if it's minor, but now I'm curious if it's bigger than that." "That's a relief, Coach. Because my arm's been sore since Spring Training and I think it might be serious, but I've been keeping it to myself because you told us not to talk about injuries." I admit it could've gone down on either end of the spectrum or any which way in between. But from the facts as we know them, the former seems more likely than the latter, and is also the scenario I'm much more worried about.

When's more news on this happy hour coming? Sounds like fun!

The question you leave me wondering is: When you bought the tickets in April, what percent chance would you have said there was at the time that you would sell the tickets?

You're not wrong, but it sets a different tone to say, "Sure, three of our top five prospects are out right now, but Prospect #22 on the depth chart is really impressing!" These guys are showing signs of improvement, but I think the point of this article was you don't have to go all that far down the prospect list to find reasons for optimism.

That's the great thing about shortstop prospects--they can all play the outfield in a pinch. Jeremy, I'm curious: If the Twins do take Nick Gordon or someone else in the first round that they can sign for underslot, is there any predicting which names might drop due to signability issues that the Twins could then target? Or would that be purely taking shots in the dark, and it all depends on how draft day goes down?

Thanks for this, Cody. It actually reassures me some to be reminded just how much younger Buxton and Sano have been compared to their competition. Even with their lost time, they're still well ahead of schedule. I imagine if Buxton comes back even around mid-season, they can start him in A+ where he can get his feet wet before a promotion to AA for the rest of the year. Depending on his numbers, he'd probably finish this year about where Sano did last year--unclear whether he'll start 2015 in AA or AAA, with legitimate cases for both. Hopefully Sano can get back by the end of the season and flash some continued brilliance either in AA, the Arizona Fall League, or Winter Ball. I want to see him demonstrate that he should start 2015 in AAA. I'd like to see Rosario play 2B, CF, and corner outfield spots--maybe he can be the Twins' equivalent of Ben Zobrist. I imagine he debuts back at AA this year, but where he finishes, I have no idea--not least of all because the Twins have such a need in CF. I'll also be curious if the Twins are slow to promote him due to perceived maturity issues, or if they feel he's served the consequences of his actions with his suspension and no further penalty is warranted.

I see tomorrow (Friday) night's game includes a "Twins Music Download Card" giveaway. Any idea what that is? I figure it could be really awesome or really lame, depending.

This whole story is bizarre to me. If anyone at MLB really did think it was a good idea to remove the podcasts, surely they anticipated there would be a backlash? But given how fast MLB caved in rather than attempt to weather the backlash, maybe it really was a misunderstanding with Apple--as hard as that is to swallow. You should just describe it as, "An official Minnesota twins podcast." You and Eric are twins--and officially so--born in Minnesota (I assume?). Could be a fun court case. and It might be worth acknowledging that MLB does claim extremely sweeping copyright protection. As we hear in every broadcast, (Emphasis mine) They certainly don't have a Constitutional leg to stand on there, but MLB does assert the legal right to anything you or I say about what happens during a baseball game. Anyway, I'm glad all the podcasts are back.

Did anyone else catch the radio promo for the Colabello cowbells? I heard it once in the car on Friday, and it was awesome! Does anyone know of anywhere online I can listen to it again? (My searching so far has proved fruitless, so I'm not optimistic--but it was too good to hear just once!)

I have to assume it goes back to the lazy philosophy that walks are the pitcher's fault, and that doesn't recognize plate discipline for the valuable skill it is. It's nice to see the wind changing direction; thanks for the analysis, Nick.

Pepperoni, Sausage, Mushroom, Pinto, and Banana Peppers. One of those is my favorite Twin; the rest go on my favorite pizza.

stringer bell, thanks for the comment--I admit, the pinch hinter angle is one I hadn't considered. That said, if you consider Pinto the best option at DH on days he'd otherwise be riding the bench--and I do--then there's something odd in the notion that the Twins should keep a superior bat out of the line-up to ensure a defensive replacement in case they have to pinch-hit a superior bat for Suzuki. I'd think it would be better to put as many of your best bats in the line-up as possible in the first place.

Any tips on finding and using photos for blog entries? I know the FAQ says, "Please make sure you are not using copyrighted or licensed images." Besides using personal photos I've taken, what are potential sources for images that I could fairly use? Thanks in advance for any advice.

I'm not looking for a DH candidate in a catcher, I've been that route. I need two catchers. If I have that then I'm going to need three catchers and I don’t want to do that. --Ron Gardenhire, March 13, 2014 That's the sound of Ron Gardenhire making it clear he doesn't plan to play Josmil Pinto at Designated Hitter this year. Having trimmed the roster down to two catchers, Gardy wants to use his rookie catcher as a true back-up, not as an occasional DH. Yet, even when following Gardenhire's logic, Pinto should be allowed to step to the plate as a DH in 2014. It's well known in Twins Territory that Gardy harbors a deep-seated fear of a mid-game catcher injury that forces a bench scramble. This fear has manifested itself in a proclivity for carrying three catchers on the 25-Man Roster, but also shows up in places like the above quote, illustrating Gardy's attention to the consequences of thinning the ranks of his replacement receivers. This year, the Twins' Opening Day roster will feature two catchers: Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto. Gardenhire has already made the decision that Suzuki, his veteran presence, and his defensive prowess will helm the catching duo, relegating Pinto to the role of back-up. However, Pinto's history suggests the offense-challenged Twins of 2014 would benefit from his bat in the line-up. Given Pinto's youth and development path, he would also benefit from regular offensive playing time. In 2013, Pinto hit .342/.398/.566 in 83 September plate appearances with the Twins, building on a .309/.400/.482 line across AA and AAA for the season (his second consecutive MiLB season with an OPS over .800). His major league OPS was the best in 2013 among Twins with a minimum of 50 plate appearances. Small sample size and September numbers caveats aside, that's a slash line that turns heads and suggests Pinto has a bat that could aid the Twins in 2014. That point is only underscored by the dearth of offense the Twins are carrying into this season. To an offense that ranked 12th in the league (based on OPS) in 2013, the Twins have added Jason Kubel, who put up at .216/.293/.317 line in 2013, and Jason Bartlett, who was completely absent from baseball in 2013 after putting up a .133/.240/.193 line in 98 plate appearances in 2012. Their Spring Training slash lines--.186/.286/.279 and .098/.159/.098, respectively--have done nothing to assuage concerns that they've entered the decline phases of their careers. Besides 31-year-old Kubel and 34-year-old Bartlett, 25-year-old Pinto's other competition at DH is 30-year-old Chris Colabello, an independent league find who put up an eye-popping .352/.427/.639 line in 2013 before struggling to .194/.287/.344 in 181 plate appearances with the Twins. Colabello still teases the possibility of offensive skill, but on a rebuilding team, youth must carry the day. At 30, Colabello's bat has likely learned what it can; at 25, Pinto needs the development opportunity provided by regular at-bats, and can't waste away as a back-up catching playing only a couple times a week. Gardy believes Pinto needs more defensive seasoning before taking over a full-time catching role. Fine. But the Twins still need Pinto's bat—at DH if he's not catching. Gardenhire doesn't want to risk losing the DH if Suzuki goes down and Pinto must take over mid-game, forcing the DH slot into the hands of pinch hitters and hitting pitchers. Fine. But there's another possibility here, one that Gardenhire demonstrated a comfort with as recently as last year. Gardy went the DHing catcher route before--as referenced in his above quote--as recently as 2013. Opening Day of 2013, in fact, featured back-up catcher Ryan Doumit in the DH slot, Joe Mauer behind the dish, and a third catcher... no where to be found. Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann, Eric Fryer, and Josmil Pinto all sat out on the East Coast with minor league affiliates, a plane’s flight away from taking over in the event of an injury. In fact, in 2013, Doumit logged a whopping 216 plate appearances in 54 games at DH with no third catcher on the roster. Chris Herrmann joined the roster for a brief stint from late May through mid-June following Wilkin Ramirez's concussion, and then did not slot in again until mid-July. Yet Doumit took those DH at-bats, anyway. So what was the plan if Mauer had gone down while Doumit was the Designated Hitter? [Eduardo] Escobar spent a half-hour this afternoon catching pitches from a pitching machine... It's clear Gardenhire is considering Escobar as an emergency catcher, on hand only in case Joe Mauer or Ryan Doumit get hurt during a game... "Another catcher is only a phone call away," [Gardenhire] said. "He would only have to get you through nine innings, or whatever." --From Phil Miller, March 13, 2013 In 2013, the Twins had a utility infielder who could serve as an emergency third catcher in the event of injury. By a stroke of good fortune, the same Eduardo Escobar is breaking camp with the 2014 Minnesota Twins. Is it possible Gardenhire's forgotten this skill Escobar carries in his toolbox? There's no evidence the Escobar-as-emergency-catcher method failed, as Escobar was never forced to take the on the role. Given Gardy's above quote, it does sound like he has some second thoughts over using his back-up catcher as his DH. But looking at the way 2013 went down, the only regret I can see is Doumit's .247/.314/.396 line. Even by Ron Gardenhire's logic, there is no reason to prohibit Josmil Pinto from serving at Designated Hitter on days when he's not catching. The line-up will benefit from his bat, and his bat will benefit from being in the line-up. By letting Josmil Pinto DH, the Twins will be better in 2013 and beyond.

Is that a typo? If it's not, I have to wonder how meaningful it is--how many "Routine" play opportunities did Hicks see last year? It wouldn't take more than an unlucky misstep or two, I would think, to go from a well-rated center fielder to a poorly-rated one if 98% is the lowest score.

I'm actually most surprised by Mastroianni being sent down. Doesn't that make a strong case that Hicks will make the Opening Day roster and therefore be the center fielder?

Thanks for the reply and for taking the time, biggentleben. I took a couple stats classes in college, but it's obvious I'm rusty when it comes to drilling down much. Let's see if I'm understanding this: Would it be fair to say that if catch framing has a 0.3 correlation, than if the Twins re-ran their 2013 season but replaced Joe Mauer's defense with, say, Jose Molina's, there's a 30% chance they'd have had fewer Runs Allowed?

biggentleben--exactly. So if catcher framing had a correlation of 1 with Runs Allowed, it would mean your catcher's framing ability determined it completely. (If the two correlate perfectly in perfect tandem, no other independent factor could contribute. Otherwise, if they diverged, you'd have a paradox--the dependent variable wouldn't know which way to go. And the same would hold true for why you can't have two independent factors correlating at 0.9--if they diverged, the dependent variable couldn't be 90% determined by both of them simultaneously.) So to say 30% of Runs Allowed has to do with catch framing sounds huge to me. That other 70% isn't coincidence, it's all the other factors/variables that affect Runs Allowed, right? That means that pitcher ability, team defense, and non-catch framing catcher skills like pitch selection don't correlate in their totality more than 0.7, because 30% of Runs Allowed is already accounted for. ...Right? (I'd imagine this isn't perfect because it didn't sound like the 0.3 correlation involved a multiple regression analysis to isolate catch framing and make sure it was fully independent of all other factors--but since it's generally considered an ignored skill right now, I'd think it's closer to isolated from other variables than most factors would be.) To come at this from another angle: How well does a team's best player's OBP correlate with Runs Scored? My guess is it's pretty low. (The Twins have had one of the league leaders in OBP on their roster over the past three seasons, after all.) I would think it would be difficult to find correlations over 0.5 between one individual player's performance and a team's overall performance--because no individual player's performance can have that much of a causal relationship with the team's overall performance, even more so if you're measuring just one skill within that player's skill set. ...Right? So to say it's a "weak" determinant at best of team outcomes has nothing to do with whether it's a real, repeatable skill.

Hold on--weak? That sounds almost unbelievably strong to me. Wouldn't that mean 30% of a team's Runs Allowed is determined by one dimension of one player? I don't know, but I have to think if you looked at the correlation between Centerfield UZR and Runs Allowed, or between closer ERA and Runs Allowed, or even between lead-off man OBP and Runs Scored, they'd all be significantly less than .30. And that's even with all of these being known skills, so you would expect an investment in them when a team is in "win-now" mode and a disinvestment during rebuilding. As a potentially undervalued skill, I'd expect catcher framing to be much more divorced from where a team is in the winning cycle than these other skills. And .30 still sounds massive to me. Am I interpreting that wrong?

I haven't dug in too far yet, but I can think of three potential answers: 1) What counts as "so variable"? From 2007 to present, Joe Mauer's batting averages were: .293, .328, .365, .327, .287, .319, .324 From 2007 to present, Mike Pelfrey's ERAs were: 5.57, 3.72, 5.03, 3.66, 4.74, 2.29, 5.19 Those all look pretty variable, but I don't doubt batting average and ERA are repeatable skills. How does pitch framing's variability compare to the typical stat? 2) We'd have to look at the sample sizes for each of the players in each year. Anyone who's a back-up or anyone who spent part of the year injured is going to have more variability because they caught fewer games--whether it's a counting stat (Total Framing Runs) or rate stat (Framing Runs per 7,000 Chances). Counting stats are obviously driven by playing time, but the rate stat's less accurate, too, if the sample's not large enough. How does consistency compare to annual sample size? 3) Some if it could just come down to seasonal opportunity. When I think about the year-to-year variability in defensive stats, I always think of any given center fielder and the number of chances he has every year to rob a home run. Some years you're just served up more opportunities. How many borderline calls are we looking at in a given year? Again, without digging into the study yet, I think these are ranked in order of their impact--#3 the least, because even if borderline pitches aren't particularly common, catchers are seeing so many pitches every year that I'd think, given a season of playing time, you'd have a good sample size. #1 first because it does look to me like the same names keep showing up at the top and bottom each year.

mlhouse, let me ask you this: What is the harm, then, in any monopoly or in collusion? If all the gas stations in the country get together and decide to raise the price of gas by $2 per gallon, what's the harm? Only the people willing to pay $5.50 for a gallon of gas will do so, and those unwilling to pay that price won't. No one is being forced into taking part in that transaction, so why not let them do so? While we're at it, why do we need the Player's Union--what's wrong with MLB declaring that the maximum player salary is $500,000 annually? No one is forced to play baseball, and I'm sure there are plenty of people who would play at that price, so is that a fair proposal?

I didn't know Pablo Sandoval could pitch. Spring training's crazy.

Take it up with the Twins... https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/440150649322631169/photo/1