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Wookiee of the Year

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Everything posted by Wookiee of the Year

  1. Wookiee of the Year
    Gosh. I normally enjoy your and Aaron's back-and-forth, but this one was a little much for me (plus, I rushed to listen to it for thoughts on the trade and details on Meyer, so my expectations were probably above average for a podcast going in). They're weird arguments, too--I tend to agree with you that Aaron seems to arguing with someone else half the time. In any case, he often gets much more worked up and defensive (and, dare I say, offensive) about these things than you get, John. While I agree with Aaron that Meyer should be labeled better than a C prospect, I totally agree with you that you can really use any scale you want, so it makes sense to ask him, "What scale are you using? Roughly how many A, B, and C prospects would you say there there are per team?" I don't know why asking that question warrants minutes of insults. I often go back and forth as to which of you I agree with in your back-and-forths, but the one thing I can never figure out is why Aaron would rather argue than discuss.
  2. Wookiee of the Year
    Between the initial article and the resulting discussion, fascinating stuff. I tend to agree we should be skeptical of any stat that places so much value on the defensive capabilities of the back-up catcher, let alone one particular skill within those capabilities. Still, I've long written off pitch framing as not a real skill, but this article's making me think twice on that point. Even if I remain skeptical of this article's findings, I'm still glad to have read it.
  3. Wookiee of the Year
    Ah, very good point. I did fail to factor that in. Thanks! I've enjoyed reading and occasionally commenting on Twins Daily for a few months now, so it's nice to take the next step in becoming a member of the community.
  4. Wookiee of the Year
    Lots of good thoughts. I tend to think Morneau would warrant a 1 year contract in the $7-9 million range, probably on the higher end this offseason with the thin market at first base, and probably with an option year. However, I could also see the winning bidder overpay a bit by going to a 2 year contract, again with an option year. If that's right--and it seems to be in the range most of you are thinking--then I'd imagine even with his current contract, packaging Morneau with a prospect and a little cash could prove desirable for some team with a hole at first base, and earn the Twins a respectable starting pitcher or middle infielder in return. I also imagine that's a trade you could only make after LaRoche signs somewhere, as his empty-handed suitors wouldn't have strong FA options for 1B and might be willing to gamble on Morneau's health.
  5. Wookiee of the Year
    Inspired by Seth Stohs' invitation, I'd like to hear some Twins Daily member input on a question some of my friends and I've kicked around in the last couple weeks: If Justin Morneau's contract had expired this year and he was a Free Agent right now, what sort of a contract do you believe he would land? The Offseason Handbook does a good job establishing potential first basemen contracts for this year's crop of free agents, but I'll just note the bigger names on the market are this year: Adam LaRoche, Mark Reynolds, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Lee lead the pack. And I'd like to think this exercise isn't completely academic, as determining Morneau's value this offseason helps establish his trade value.
  6. Wookiee of the Year
    You're right that you guys did an overall good job of estimating contracts, but it's interesting to note that with a few exceptions, you were more likely to overestimate than underestimate contract size. That might mean you should tone down your estimates this year ever so slightly, but not necessarily; it could also mean (1) you expect the Twins need to pay a little more for a player than the average team coming off a big losing season, and/or (2) for the Twins to have landed any of the names above, they would have had to outbid the offer that the player did land, which often would have put the contract right at your estimate.
  7. Wookiee of the Year
    I'm new here, so I'll avoid commenting on the tendencies of other posters, but I think there's a big difference between (1) wanting to test out prospects in the majors to see what they can do during a lost season, even if it requires benching better players, and (2) trying to build the best 25-man roster the Twins can for 2013. I also think there's a difference between temporarily putting a lower-quality player with upside on the field to "see what he can do," and permanently setting a roster when you're dealing with players who are known quantities. Speaking for myself, I wouldn't want to see the Twins go with a known downgrade to "see what [Player X] can do," especially on a contending team. But if I have a team with a lost season and an unknown quantity who might be better than a known quantity? Yes, I'd want to see him in action, and I don't see that as inconsistent. Maybe I'm reading your comment wrong or you're responding to sentiments different enough from my own that they do represent logical inconsistencies. But I don't see trying to get a handle on a player's major league-level ability when it's unknown and striving to put together the best roster as contradictory in the slightest.
  8. Wookiee of the Year
    Well, following the Twins going down by 7 runs, Herrmann got his first major league at bat today. He made contact, even if he didn't reach base. Hopefully he gets a chance to correct that .000 BA in Cleveland. I ran a query on BRef the other day, there have been 4,058 position players since 1900 that have been given 500+ plate appearances. Butera's OPS+ ranks 4,053rd. Word.
  9. Wookiee of the Year
    This is a strong analysis, but I'm still left wondering why right-handed hitters in AAA were held to a much lower average than those in the majors. Is the quality of right-handed hitting that much better in the majors? Has Hendrick's pitching strategy changed at all? Your analysis makes sense, except it still leaves me wondering why he found success against right-handers that he can't replicate one step up the ladder.
  10. Wookiee of the Year
    Shane, what's your read on how soon Herrmann should replace Butera as our third-string catcher? I agree with you that it would've been great to see him play at AAA this year, but given where we sit today, when would it be reasonable to move him onto the Twins' active roster in a primarily bench role without risk of stunting his development? Also, do you know if he's related to the Frank Herrmann who threw an inning of relief pitching for the Cleveland Indians last night?
  11. Wookiee of the Year
    I thought that was you, Mr. Bonnes, across the Saints' grandstand, but with just your display picture to go off of, I wasn't certain. It is nice to step away from the Twins for an evening and enjoy another local team's baseball performance. I just wish the rosters they handed out included batting stats, and not just height/weight/age/hometown. I'd feel like a much more informed and invested fan. And while they sometimes put up those stats on the scoreboard during the at-bats, it's not with enough regularity to feel useful to me.
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