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Wookiee of the Year

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Everything posted by Wookiee of the Year

  1. Wookiee of the Year
    I like it--these are the types of moves the Twins should be making. I don't know that I'd trade Willingham in the offseason--his value's so low right now, I'd rather gamble on a bounceback--but I certainly won't be upset if that sort of wheeling and dealing happens this offseason. In fact, my biggest criticism is that you have Hicks starting the year for the Twins. I'd give him some time to figure it out in AAA before throwing him into the big league spotlight again, but you can just slide Presley over to CF and use Arcia/Willingham/Parmelee in the corners. With Morneau ($14M) off the books, I would hope so. Plus Blackburn ($5.5M), Carroll ($3.75M), and the aforementioned Pelfrey ($4M).
  2. Wookiee of the Year
    I pretty much agree with this. If payroll is higher in 2014 than 2013, I'll likely be satisfied. Something in the $90-100 million range makes the most sense to me. I do think, given the large payroll space this year but not much chance we'll contend next year, it makes sense to approach guys looking for one-year deals to see if they can have a bounceback year. If so, you can always flip them at the deadline for prospects and further build toward the future and without hurting payroll moving forward. Guys like Josh Johnson, Johan Santana, and Colby Lewis would be at the top of my target list. I'm hoping we get one longer-term piece, someone like Jimenez or Hughes, but some one-year upside moves could prove smart investments.
  3. Wookiee of the Year
    John's right--"out of touch" is an apt way to describe the Terry Ryan interview. He just seemed so dismissive of views of the Twins fanbase and unaware of the perceptions of the front office. It's frustrating when I have such high regard for the opinions of the bloggers and commenters here to see him just shrug those outside opinions off.
  4. Wookiee of the Year
    Good interview. Wolfson did a good job of throwing out specific names and situations and making Ryan respond. I agree with twinsnorth49--the response to Doogie's comment on Lincecum was pretty telling. Sounds like Ryan might once again be surprised by how high the market will go this year. (Or hopefully, he's right and Lincecum's an isolated case. But I'd bet more on the former than the latter.) I've also noticed a pattern in Ryan's interviews where he makes a lot of references to "taking the phone calls" from other GMs, but he rarely says anything about making the calls. I don't know if it's a verbal tic or even intentional to keep people from knowing his priorities, but it does seem to suggest he's pretty passive on the trade market, which has been my impression. The other exchange I found noteworthy: That sounds like a reference to Ubaldo Jimenez to me (does anyone else fit that "option and possibly a tender" description?). I wonder if TR's thinking Jimenez?
  5. Wookiee of the Year
    Yeah--I'm mostly just encouraged to see Meyer doing so well. We had full, impressive minor league seasons from Buxton and Rosario, so I'm not terribly worried about their AFL performances. It'd be nice to see Kepler do something, but as previously pointed out, he'd be expected to be over his head in the AFL. My biggest question I was hoping the AFL could answer is how Meyer is looking, and if he's bouncing back from his shoulder injury. The positive results we're seeing there are far more encouraging to me than the subpar performancese of the hitters are disheartening.
  6. Wookiee of the Year
    See, that's part of the issue, though--while I wouldn't want to trade Rosario for a year of Bailey + an extension, a team in Win Now Mode that needs pitching might be willing to. My guess is the Reds wouldn't accept much less than a Rosario-level prospect.
  7. Wookiee of the Year
    I definitely like your Josh Johnson signing, but I wonder if he'd accept a 2-year deal. My guess is he's looking for that clean, one-year "prove it" deal. And I'd be fine with the Twins giving him that. If he has a good year, you either flip him at the deadline for a good return, or you wait and offer him a Qualifying Offer at the end of the year (if Johnson has a healthy year and he's good enough that you'd want him back, he'd be worth the QO).
  8. Wookiee of the Year
    I read it and thoroughly enjoyed it. Thought it was funny you listed the agent for the top tier Free Agents (don't remember that from last year)--but I imagine that means a lot to some people. Definitely enjoyed Seth's breakdown of potential 40 Man roster additions (especially know it's the reason I'm posting this on Page 8 of the Comments section). Very surprised Seth's blueprint included trading Eddie Rosario for Homer Bailey. Bailey's a great pitcher, don't get me wrong, but is one year of him (in 2014, no less) worth Rosario? I know you required negotiating an extension, but I guess my reaction is, why not just wait until next offseason to target him as a FA? He'll probably cost you similar dollars as the extension would, and you don't have to sacrifice a prospect. I've put together my own blueprint I'll likely share at some point--don't know what the best venue for that is.
  9. Wookiee of the Year
    I'm going to guess this article comes pretty close to what Nick's answer would be: Tim Lincecum and the Slow Death of ERA.
  10. Wookiee of the Year
    You never know--I remember hearing last offseason that the Twins didn't like Edwin Jackson because when they scouted him as a high schooler, they thought his motion made him injury prone. So it could still be relevant to them.
  11. Wookiee of the Year
    This makes sense to me--if Lincecum wants a 1-2 year deal, I don't know why he wouldn't take the Qualifying Offer. If he's available with a QO attached, it's safe to assume he's looking for a longer-term deal; if he's available with no QO attached, then he probably is interested in a short-term deal.
  12. Wookiee of the Year
    I wonder if we're too low on Doumit. The Nationals Baseball blog (a member, like Twins Daily, of ESPN's SweetSpot Network, so I assume it has some legitimacy) and its commenters actually seem somewhat positive about the idea of trading for Doumit. For examples, try here and here. A quote from the blogger there: "How about Ryan Doumit? Not a bad idea. They guy can play 1B and C (though not well) and can sit in the OF as well as say, Tyler Moore can. He can also hit lefty to complement Ramos... Do the Nats have what it takes to get him? Not sure. The Nats don't have a deep system and can't afford to trade anything worthwhile." And from some commenters (prompting the blogger's above quote): "I agree the Doumit idea is not bad a bad idea at all imo. Very underrated hitter (albeit with defense leaving something to be desired, wherever you put him in the field)" "Yeah, I like the Doumit idea too as as a catching/OF depth move, but I noticed he hasn't played 1st much in the last several years. He's only making 3.5 million, so I assume that they'll have to give up a legitimate player for him, but last year's numbers maybe dropped his value back to an reasonable target." ...Now obviously, posts on a fan blog and by fan commenters aren't the same as comments from a Front Office, but it does make me think Doumit could have some value to the right team.
  13. Wookiee of the Year
    I'm going to derail (re-rail?) this conversation by jumping back to a response to my comment on page 1. The comments on Nick's 5 Offseason Predictions article got me thinking: What if the Twins dealt Doumit and Duensing for Espinosa? Would that be enough? I know the Nats had a dearth of lefty bullpen options this past season.
  14. Wookiee of the Year
    Honestly, if there was an offseason this would be overkill, it's this one. The Twins have (1) $23.8 million coming off payroll from Opening Day last year, (2) $25 million in new revenue from the new national TV deal, and (3) opened 2013 with a payroll $31.45 million lower than two years prior, and we know for sure the payroll cap was $10-20 million higher last year than what we actually spent. Unless a plan just goes nuts with spending, it's not unrealistic to think Plan B could be, "Make the same moves but spend more money."
  15. Wookiee of the Year
    Yeah, I figured you wouldn't mind too much, or I wouldn't have bothered to post. It's a pretty good exercise--you do have to wonder if some of these guys could be had, even with Doumit's limited value, considering how unlikely the are to develop. Rcfarmer, whose system is Ismael Guillon in? I'm guessing the Reds', given it's the name of his Rookie Ball team?
  16. Wookiee of the Year
    Ah... yup, good call.
  17. Wookiee of the Year
    Has J.D. Williams been mentioned? He might make sense as the 11th most likely add. Achter, Darnell, Vargas, Kepler, Watts, Wimmers, Polanco, Oliveros, Dean, Ibarra, Williams ...As a lurker attempting to profit off the hard work of Shane and goulik, consider this an entry in goulik's name.
  18. Wookiee of the Year
    I'm going to break all the rules. What about trading Ryan Doumit to the Washington Nationals for Danny Espinosa (2B/SS)? Espinosa had a terrible year, so bad he doesn't seem to be in the Nats' future plans anymore (they were shopping him in August), and his value could be low enough that Doumit might net him while being a good buy-low candidate. The Nationals could use Doumit as a back-up or even third catcher/bench bat (given Ramos' injury history, it could be good insurance to have), and there's even some interest in the Nationals online community. For the Twins, we know Florimon can't be a long-term answer at SS. Espinosa is an above average defensive shortstop (his natural position) with the potential for 20-20 numbers, under team control through 2016, and his versatility in playing 2B suggests he could be a stopgap at 3B pre-Sano, too. Maybe he never ends up making his way back to the majors, but that's why you might be able to get him for Doumit. Regarding Willingham, I agree with kab21, gunnarthor, and Boom Boom. He's not really blocking anyone, and his trade value is so low right now compared to where it could be that even if there's only a 25% chance he has a good enough first half to increase his value, you might as well take that chance.
  19. Wookiee of the Year
    I might've thought so, but Mientkiewicz also won Manager of the Year in the Florida State League. Makes me wonder if the fight wasn't as big a deal as you are I would think? It's hard to imagine the Manager of the Year being someone who literally tackled another manager, but it happened. His peers must not look down on the incident that much. First, I have to agree with Jim Crikket that the most likely scenario is Gardy gets a two-year contract. My expectation is the front office will offer him a one-year deal, he'll say thanks, but no thanks, and then the front office will cave and go to two. And while it's doubtful they'd look outside the organization, if you're looking for less commonly mentioned candidates, I'd nominate Manny Acta for manager. He's more into stats than your typical manager, he's available, and I'd like to see the Twins add a manager who's not monolingual. Plus, let's face it, Acta has some experience with rebuilding teams.
  20. Wookiee of the Year
    I have to wonder if there's some Good Cop/Bad Cop going on here. Jim Pohlad wants to be seen as the benevolent owner, so he offers a quote suggesting a willingness to spend big. Meanwhile, Terry Ryan's job is to temper expectations, so he says that Free Agency isn't a silver bullet for the Twins. (Gardy, of course, just wants to keep his job, so tries to artfully deflect blame for a 90-loss season.) Makes me think the truth lies in between--Pohlad and Ryan both know they're going to need to do a bit of spending this off-season, but it won't turn the team into play-off contenders in 2014. And if things go awry and there aren't any solid pitchers to be had for reasonable money (or fans are simply disappointed by the overall Free Agent haul), then at least Pohlad's been quoted announcing his financial commitment to the team and TR gets to look like the penny-pinching miser keeping the Twins from respectability.
  21. Wookiee of the Year
    How much value do you think Doumit has on the trading market? Would teams have interest in him as a back-up catcher?
  22. Wookiee of the Year
    I have to think one of the reasons the Twins didn't just let Willingham go is it would be a terrible PR move to give him up for nothing by feeding right into the "Twins are cheap" stereotype. (Reminds me of the post you wrote last off-season, John, about the dangers of doing things that fit into preexisting negative narratives.) Willingham's still relatively popular in Twins country, so I imagine public opinion would have come down harshly on a contract dump for nothing, even if it made some strategic sense.
  23. Wookiee of the Year
    Yeah, that's sort of the problem I see, too--it's unlikely all the Twins prospects will develop into great major leaguers, but at this point, you don't know for sure which ones will and which holes you'll have to fill. That makes 2014 a tougher year for signing a big Free Agent. Obviously, the pitching rotation has room for improvement now. But I also worry some about signing a big pitcher deal when we're still multiple years from contention, what with the volatility of pitcher performance and health. All of that said, I support the notion that the time is right to surpass the Willingham Contract with a new Biggest Twins FA Deal of All Time by signing a pitcher. I wouldn't personally count one such contract as the Twins going big this offseason, but coupled with a few high-upside signings like Johan and bringing in maybe one solid everyday player, the Twins might be able to push payroll up to at least this year's level.
  24. Wookiee of the Year
    That 2014 line-up is ambitious--certainly too ambitious for Opening Day. But the idea that the Twins could have that line-up at some point in August 2014? It's optimistic, but not unbelievably so. It would be exciting if the Twins finished 2014 with those players all as "regulars" in one form or another.
  25. Wookiee of the Year
    I wish more cellar-dweller teams (like, unfortunately, the Twins over the last few years) showed more willingness to try outside-the-box thinking like this. When it's apparent you're going to be bad, why not dare to be different to see if you can change that?
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