Wookiee of the Year

Those who know their Minnesota Twins history will know that the Twins’ World Series wins in 1987 and 1991 are two of only three World Series ever where the home team won every game. Additionally, in their 1965 World Series appearance, the home team won the first 6 games before the Dodgers took the Series in Game 7 at the Met. This made me wonder: Do the postseason Twins exhibit extreme home-road splits? To find out, I compared the Twins’ postseason record against the overall record of postseason teams within two years either way of a Twins postseason appearance, in series not featuring the Twins. (The Twins made the postseason in 1965, 1969-70, 1987, 1991, 2002-04, 2006, and 2009-10. This means I compared the Twins’ home-road splits to the home-road splits in postseason games not featuring the Twins in the years 1963-72, 1985-93, and 2000-2012.) In postseason games featuring the Twins, the home team went 39-25 for a .609 winning percentage. In contrast, all other postseason home teams had a .544 winning percentage. Historically, Twins postseason games have in fact seen the home team win more often than the league average. Unfortunately, this is not because the Twins are especially good at winning at home. The Twins have gone only 16-16 to break even at home; however, Minnesota has posted an abysmal .281 (9-23) road record in the postseason (versus a league average of .456 on the road). Historically, Minnesota Twins postseasons have been ruined by road losses. And this is where things become fascinating, because it’s not just the Twins who can’t perform on the road in the postseason. The Road Curse extends to all four of Minnesota’s major professional sports franchises. The Wild are currently embroiled in the Stanley Cup playoffs, and in the first round with the St. Louis Blues saw the home team win half the games. Coming into this year’s postseason, the Minnesota Wild had seen the home team go 28-19 in all their playoff games. This .596 home winning percentage is higher than that demonstrated by all other NHL postseason teams since the introduction of the Wild (2001-2014), which have gone .553. However, the Wild’s elevated home winning percentage is once again driven by their opponents winning at home, as the postseason Wild have gone 8-18 (.308) on the road—significantly worse than other teams’ combined .447. The problem continues for the Vikings, whose .273 (6-16) winning percentage on the road contrasts unfavorably with the NFL’s—since the introduction of the Superbowl, in NFL postseason games not featuring the Vikings, road teams have a .325 winning percentage. (This also doesn’t include Superbowls among postseason games, since there is no home team for the Superbowl.) How about the Timberwolves? From 1997-2004, the T-wolves made the playoffs every year, but went only 5-19 (.208) on the road. During that same time period, in all postseason games not featuring the Timberwolves, NBA teams had a .350 winning percentage on the road. What gives? Likely, this is a bizarre statistical anomaly with no explanation other than randomness. Nevertheless, for Minnesota teams—including the Twins—to have success in future postseasons, they’ll need to do a better job of winning on the road.

Rob Antony: "I think a lot of people look at it and go 'Geez, you won 70 games last year and now you think there's going to be a 12-game improvement? In one year that might be tough.' I think last year we underachieved. I felt we should have won 76/77 games. So to say that we should get over .500 this year, I don't think that's a major thing. I think we ought to be able to improve five, six, seven games over last year. I look at it as what we should have won rather than what we did win. I hope that's not unrealistic. I don't think it is. But I think 2015 should be a year where we're competitive and in the mix and guys take steps forward." --From TwinkieTown, on February 3. I'm also fairly certain I've heard Mike Berardino say or Tweet as much: The Twins really do believe they were several wins better last year. And I know Terry Ryan said at TwinsFest that if they can get to 85 or 86 wins this year, that could be enough to win the division. To be clear: This is not an analysis I buy, but the Twins are certainly selling it. And I readily admit selling something's not the same as buying into it yourself. But I've heard it in enough places in enough different contexts to think the Twins might believe it.

I totally agree with this in theory--but in practice, I'm not sure I've seen evidence the Twins are good evaluators of process during spring training. Aaron Hicks puts up great numbers in Spring Training 2013 and Spring Training 2014, and the Twins said, "Yup, he's our guy!" Maybe there should have been some process clues that he wasn't ready. On the flip side, Jason Bartlett puts up a .093/.152/.093 line in Spring Training 2014, and the Twins say, "We liked his process. We're not worried about him." I don't know what they saw in his process that told him that, but it would suggest they need to hire some new evaluators. If I want to be charitable to the Twins this spring, I say their decision-makers really are convinced they were a good team last year but caught some bad breaks. I'm of the belief that on a bad team, you want to take risks on inconsistent guys who flash greatness, while a good team should fill the margins with reliable mediocrity where there's no risk the bottom will fall out. If the Twins really think they're a contender, maybe that's why they went for reliability. Of course, I don't think they're a contender, and so I remind myself the roster on May 15 and even July 1 is more important than the roster on Opening Day. If that roster still isn't willing to take chances with young guys who lead with their upside, then I'll be very disappointed. Note: I was very disappointed in 2014.

Terry Ryan: "He should have never been in that predicament in the first place. We gave them way too many outs." Sounds like a good mantra for 2015...

This was a good read. I'm glad the emphasis is on Dozier increasing his batting average without it affecting his OBP or his power. Honestly, I'm not too worried about getting Dozier to the next level or seeing him break out; I think he's broken out, and I'd take his 2014 season again in 2015 and 2016 and as long as he can deliver it. In some ways, hearing he's striving to make adjustments to increase his batting average makes me nervous, because I don't want to see him give anything back in order to do that. But I also know that the kind of player who's satisfied with the player he is is unlikely to remain as that kind of player. So on that count, it's good to hear Dozier's one who seeks continual improvement. Excited (with some trepidation) to see what his 2015 looks like.

I'm here to agree with Twins Twerp. At first at thought it was your microphones going, then I realized the audio quality's poor during the intro sound, too. Then I thought it was my speaker, until I realized quality is still fine on older episodes. Just listen to the first 3 seconds of the intro music in episodes 181 & 182 vs. 183 & 184. The difference is immediately apparent.

For those who think length of game isn't a problem, I'd suggest it might not be so much length of games as lateness of games. During the Front Office Q&A session at TwinsFest, I asked how concerned the Twins are about pace of games, and Dave St. Peter said the big problem is that the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings are supposed to be the most exciting innings, and on many weeknight games you look around the stands and half the fans have left before the game reaches its conclusion. I don't think this is ADD or a lack of attention span; it's that people have to get home after a weeknight game. I live in St. Paul, but when I take the bus & light rail to and from a game that's gone til 10:45, I'm often getting home close to midnight. People driving from the exurbs or further are experiencing the same thing--and if you've got kids, there's no way you're staying til the game concludes. That's a problem. I'm also curious about strategies to cut down on pitching changes; that holds much more appeal to me than a pitch clock (even if it is on the books, it just seems distracting for me as a fan--and impossible to implement with runners on base, when the pitcher can just throw over to 1st to buy more time). The three main strategies I've seen are: 1) Outright limiting the number of pitching changes (with adjustments for extra innings). To me, that feels difficult to implement in a way that both impacts the game and doesn't have a radical impact on bullpen management (though in many ways, maybe that's not a loss). 2) Requiring pitchers to pitch to at least 2 or at least 3 batters after entering a game. This one's intriguing to me, but also somewhat radical and could have some problems around the margins (injuries, rain delays, etc.). 3) Capping the number of players who are primarily pitchers on the roster. This one probably holds the most appeal for me--I'd think it would have the least dramatic impact on strategy while still offering strong encouragement to limit pitching changes. And it could give birth to some "go both ways"-style players, i.e. a Drew Butera who's your back-up catcher but steps in to pitch occasionally when the bullpen's worn down (though classifying these sorts of players could cause problems).

At TwinsFest, Terry Ryan said this season, managers will issue challenges from the top step of the dugout. That should at least do away with the long meander to buy time.

Nice write-up. Pardon my historical ignorance, but: Were there any owners who continued to serve as their team's principle General Manager later than Griffith, or was he the final one?

...Crossing my fingers that a Top 5 Moments in Dave St. Peter's Career is on the way this week...

Fun read--can't wait for the Meltdown! Any word on if there'll be a place to submit potential questions for Jones, Laudner, and St. Peter?

Sounds cool. I have a couple names I assume are near the top of the list, but I look forward to watching this unfold.

Can I ask: Who's freshly out of options this year? Milone? Pressly? Nunez?

Awesome--looking forward to it. And plan on picking a couple up as Christmas gifts, too.

I'll be curious to see whether he even makes the Opening Day roster, or if he starts the year in AAA (assuming that's an option for a Korean FA signing?). It might be nice to figure out what we have before throwing him into the major leagues.

Looks like it is now. Is the video available somewhere?

Wellll, what have we here? Nice post--I enjoyed reading it. Third is quite the stretch; I'm just focused on beating the White Sox. (I hate finishing behind them!)

Hmm... 1) I totally get the "no game stories" philosophy--if the closest Twins Daily ever came to that was Brad Swanson's "Monday Morning Madness" posts, I'd be plenty happy. So I'm somewhat surprised the minor league coverage often takes that form. I understand that that's much more of a vacuum that Twins Daily's filling, but I'd like the minor league coverage to mirror the site's major league coverage in format to a greater extent. Even implementing something like a "Two Week Check-in" article that highlights the current significant minor league narratives would be great. In my experience, there's a gap between the daily game stories coverage and coverage that's at the 10,000 foot level, with a hole in between. 2) Get Gleeman over here. He's not blogging all that much anymore and it would reduce the number of websites I check daily by one. 3) I love the Off-Season and Prospect Handbooks--keep both of those coming! Plus, it's one of the few times every year I get to compensate you guys for the amazing work you do.

My gosh--Buxton is making this delayed "spring training" look like child's play. I would've thought he'd spent 2-3 weeks at Ft. Myers before moving up to AA, but when every game's a multi-hit game with at least one falling for extra bases, he could be promoted any day now. I do wonder if Aaron Hicks' need for time in CF could be logjamming him--maybe Buxton says at A+ a bit longer just so Hicks can have some extra time as the primary CF at AA. It's so amazing to have a prospect like Buxton who leads you into having lofty expectations for him, but then still manages to beat those expectations. Incredible.

I'll be happy if Buxton finishes the year developmentally where Sano finished 2013--having spent some time in 2013 at AA with success but not outrageous success, leaving us to debate whether he should start next year at AA or AAA. If he can make it to that point by the end of the season, then even with the wrist injury, I'll consider this year a modest success in his development. Are the Twins slow to promote? Yes, but honestly, that bugs me the least with 20-year-olds like Buxton. At this point, every year longer it takes him to reach the majors is one more year of his prime that the Twins get at a reduced price. I mean, the Cardinals kept a 20-year-old Oscar Taveras at AA for 124 games while he put up a .321/.380/.572 line, then at AAA for 108 games over the better part of two seasons while he hit .313/.358/.485. In return, they'll control him until he's 28. The Rays are also known for sitting on guys who've mastered the minors to maximize their effectiveness in the majors. On the other hand, you have the Marlins, who slotted a 20-year-old Jose Fernandez into their starting rotation while they went 62-100, threw away a service year while Fernandez sits out with Tommy John, and will lose him to Free Agency following his age 25 season. There's a certain injustice to making a player who's ready to contribute at the major league level wile away in the minors, but I tend to think waiting for a player to demonstrate mastery of a level and then promoting isn't a bad way to go. I far prefer it to the current Aaron Hicks debacle.

stringer bell, thanks for the comment--I admit, the pinch hinter angle is one I hadn't considered. That said, if you consider Pinto the best option at DH on days he'd otherwise be riding the bench--and I do--then there's something odd in the notion that the Twins should keep a superior bat out of the line-up to ensure a defensive replacement in case they have to pinch-hit a superior bat for Suzuki. I'd think it would be better to put as many of your best bats in the line-up as possible in the first place.

I'm not looking for a DH candidate in a catcher, I've been that route. I need two catchers. If I have that then I'm going to need three catchers and I don’t want to do that. --Ron Gardenhire, March 13, 2014 That's the sound of Ron Gardenhire making it clear he doesn't plan to play Josmil Pinto at Designated Hitter this year. Having trimmed the roster down to two catchers, Gardy wants to use his rookie catcher as a true back-up, not as an occasional DH. Yet, even when following Gardenhire's logic, Pinto should be allowed to step to the plate as a DH in 2014. It's well known in Twins Territory that Gardy harbors a deep-seated fear of a mid-game catcher injury that forces a bench scramble. This fear has manifested itself in a proclivity for carrying three catchers on the 25-Man Roster, but also shows up in places like the above quote, illustrating Gardy's attention to the consequences of thinning the ranks of his replacement receivers. This year, the Twins' Opening Day roster will feature two catchers: Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto. Gardenhire has already made the decision that Suzuki, his veteran presence, and his defensive prowess will helm the catching duo, relegating Pinto to the role of back-up. However, Pinto's history suggests the offense-challenged Twins of 2014 would benefit from his bat in the line-up. Given Pinto's youth and development path, he would also benefit from regular offensive playing time. In 2013, Pinto hit .342/.398/.566 in 83 September plate appearances with the Twins, building on a .309/.400/.482 line across AA and AAA for the season (his second consecutive MiLB season with an OPS over .800). His major league OPS was the best in 2013 among Twins with a minimum of 50 plate appearances. Small sample size and September numbers caveats aside, that's a slash line that turns heads and suggests Pinto has a bat that could aid the Twins in 2014. That point is only underscored by the dearth of offense the Twins are carrying into this season. To an offense that ranked 12th in the league (based on OPS) in 2013, the Twins have added Jason Kubel, who put up at .216/.293/.317 line in 2013, and Jason Bartlett, who was completely absent from baseball in 2013 after putting up a .133/.240/.193 line in 98 plate appearances in 2012. Their Spring Training slash lines--.186/.286/.279 and .098/.159/.098, respectively--have done nothing to assuage concerns that they've entered the decline phases of their careers. Besides 31-year-old Kubel and 34-year-old Bartlett, 25-year-old Pinto's other competition at DH is 30-year-old Chris Colabello, an independent league find who put up an eye-popping .352/.427/.639 line in 2013 before struggling to .194/.287/.344 in 181 plate appearances with the Twins. Colabello still teases the possibility of offensive skill, but on a rebuilding team, youth must carry the day. At 30, Colabello's bat has likely learned what it can; at 25, Pinto needs the development opportunity provided by regular at-bats, and can't waste away as a back-up catching playing only a couple times a week. Gardy believes Pinto needs more defensive seasoning before taking over a full-time catching role. Fine. But the Twins still need Pinto's bat—at DH if he's not catching. Gardenhire doesn't want to risk losing the DH if Suzuki goes down and Pinto must take over mid-game, forcing the DH slot into the hands of pinch hitters and hitting pitchers. Fine. But there's another possibility here, one that Gardenhire demonstrated a comfort with as recently as last year. Gardy went the DHing catcher route before--as referenced in his above quote--as recently as 2013. Opening Day of 2013, in fact, featured back-up catcher Ryan Doumit in the DH slot, Joe Mauer behind the dish, and a third catcher... no where to be found. Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann, Eric Fryer, and Josmil Pinto all sat out on the East Coast with minor league affiliates, a plane’s flight away from taking over in the event of an injury. In fact, in 2013, Doumit logged a whopping 216 plate appearances in 54 games at DH with no third catcher on the roster. Chris Herrmann joined the roster for a brief stint from late May through mid-June following Wilkin Ramirez's concussion, and then did not slot in again until mid-July. Yet Doumit took those DH at-bats, anyway. So what was the plan if Mauer had gone down while Doumit was the Designated Hitter? [Eduardo] Escobar spent a half-hour this afternoon catching pitches from a pitching machine... It's clear Gardenhire is considering Escobar as an emergency catcher, on hand only in case Joe Mauer or Ryan Doumit get hurt during a game... "Another catcher is only a phone call away," [Gardenhire] said. "He would only have to get you through nine innings, or whatever." --From Phil Miller, March 13, 2013 In 2013, the Twins had a utility infielder who could serve as an emergency third catcher in the event of injury. By a stroke of good fortune, the same Eduardo Escobar is breaking camp with the 2014 Minnesota Twins. Is it possible Gardenhire's forgotten this skill Escobar carries in his toolbox? There's no evidence the Escobar-as-emergency-catcher method failed, as Escobar was never forced to take the on the role. Given Gardy's above quote, it does sound like he has some second thoughts over using his back-up catcher as his DH. But looking at the way 2013 went down, the only regret I can see is Doumit's .247/.314/.396 line. Even by Ron Gardenhire's logic, there is no reason to prohibit Josmil Pinto from serving at Designated Hitter on days when he's not catching. The line-up will benefit from his bat, and his bat will benefit from being in the line-up. By letting Josmil Pinto DH, the Twins will be better in 2013 and beyond.

These are bizarre and wonderful. I missed them the first time around; my favorites between both lists are: Pedro Florimon: Implode For Ron Darin Mastroianni: Indiana Rainstorm Pedro Hernandez: End Red Porn Haze