Wookiee of the Year

It's not hard for me to imagine them being the best team in the AL. Over.

I'll go Under. I don't believe in their second-half surge last year.

It's always easier to predict bounceback years for home team players after an off-year, and that career years for home team players will repeat. I'm going to predict we've seen the best of Brian Dozier, though I sure hope I'm wrong. What if the second half Dozier is closer to the Dozier we see going forward? I'll toss out: .230/.295/.370 (.665)

Enough people are going under that I want to go over, but the "Dipoto wants an excuse to blow it all up" line of reasoning is too appealing. Under.

On the strength of Scioscia magic alone, I'll bet the Over.

It looks to me like they're actually rebuilding this year, so: Under.

Probably more because I like them and want them to do well than because I actually believe it, but-- Over.

Under. I'm finding myself making a lot of these decisions on the strength of the pitching staff, and while Price is a heck of an improvement, their rotation isn't that exciting beyond him.

Over. Almost solely on the strength of that bullpen. Though also because they have a couple pitchers who could surprise, and because Aaron Hicks probably reaches All-Star talents now that he's left Minnesota. Such is the way of things.

Under. As others have said, it's an aging roster, and those seem prone to injuries and sudden declines.

Over. Because the Rays often surprise, but mainly because everyone else is taking the Under.

You say unreliability, I say even over 162 games, it's tough to determine a team's true talent level. The lesson to take from Gleeman's stat is both that the projection could easily be off EIGHT WINS in either direction, and that it could be off eight wins IN EITHER DIRECTION. There's two ways a projection can be off: One is by poorly estimating a team's true talent level, the other is by estimating it correctly, but having luck get in the way of the team demonstrating that talent level (whether they overshoot or undershoot). It's true that even with perfect knowledge, the limit to a projection system is plus or minus 6.4 wins. But if the projection system accurately projects a team's true talent, then it's serving a useful purpose. How to know if it's accurately projecting a team's talent? Maybe see how it does over a period of say, 6 years rather than 1 year, and see if its misses even out. Regarding "cluster luck": The thing that makes it luck is that it's not predictive. If it's a skill, you would expect it to be a repeatable skill. However, historically, teams who cluster their hits in June are no more likely to cluster their hits in July than a team that showed league average hit clustering or even league worst hit clustering. Same thing from one year to the next. If there's no rhyme or reason to whether something will continue, then it's random/luck, not a skill. Maybe Molitor's figured out the Cluster Luck Secret Sauce, but he'd be the first.

I actually think the trade itself is a pretty good one--as others have pointed out, Murphy out-hit Hicks each of the past two years, and is one year younger. The disappointment--for me, at least--is that I was hoping the Twins would upgrade catcher in a big way this offseason, and this isn't it. On a micro level, it's a good trade. On a macro level, it's underwhelming.

I look forward to this announcement every year! Not just because the Handbook is well worth the money, but because it's one of the few opportunities available annually to pay you guys for the great work you do here at Twins Daily. November 2 can't come soon enough!

I didn't like the 2nd WC when it was announced, but the first season I saw it in action, I immediately changed my mind and saw it as an improvement. I, too, was turned off by the idea of a one-game play-off in baseball, but then I realized it actually serves a purpose. I will say I prefer the imbalanced schedule and the rivalries it creates, but I think if you do that, you need at least one Wild Card team. And the current Wild Card format is the best I've seen so far. 1) It adds September excitement. This is obviously true for the extra teams battling for a Wild Card spot, like the Twins this year. But just as importantly, it adds excitement in division races, because it makes winning your division extremely important. In divisions like the AL East historically (Yankees-Red Sox) and the NL Central (Cardinals-Cubs) this year, that's not present because both are assured equal play-off berths. Now, if you lose the division, you don't get an equal starting point compared to the other teams--you have to win a coin flip game. 2) It properly penalizes Wild Card teams. As I said earlier, with an imbalanced schedule (which I prefer for the divisional rivalries it fosters), it's important to have offsetting Wild Card teams to level the playing field. In the old format, there was no penalty for being a Wild Card team. Now, there clearly is: Your World Series Champion chances are cut in half by the one-game play-off, and you're likely to burn your best pitcher just to get through that coin flip. That strikes me as an appropriate calibration of Wild Card penalization. 3) It adds a shot of excitement from the start. There's immediately an "advance or go home" game that gets people's attention and says, "Postseason Baseball has begun!" I have to think this is good for the sport, both for Joe Casual Fan who might not have tuned in to the play-offs until later, and for Joe Super Fan, who gets an exciting game to kick things off. That's my case, anyway.

I find this less reassuring, given that if the Twins do squeak into the Wild Card game, the Yankees are their likely opponent.

This says it for me. As long as he doesn't have any injuries that actually lower his ceiling (ala Kubel's knee injury), I just have to believe this will work itself out as Buxton matures.

Not sure if it was a recording issue or an editing issue, but the podcast ends partway into the two of you talking about Pablo Sandoval. Any chance that audio exists and can be reattached?

It was a great time! I enjoyed chatting with you, John, about Buxton. (I have a hunch that doesn't narrow it down any as to who I am among the Twins Daily attendees...) The performers were very good singers and I'm glad to finally be able to say I've seen Damn Yankees.

...To underscore the difference from a development perspective: Over 8 seasons, Aaron Hicks logged 594 games in the minors, resulting in 2,577 plate appearances. Over 7 seasons, Trevor May logged 775 innings pitched in 147 minor league games, resulting in 22 plate appearances. Over 9 seasons, Pedro Florimon has logged 849 games in the minors, resulting in 3,356 plate appearances. Over 6 seasons, Nationals pitching prospect A.J. Cole has logged 534 innings pitched in 106 games in the minors, resulting in 28 plate appearances. These developmental tracks are just completely different. And even if you eliminated the DH at every level of the minors, pitchers would still only bat at best every fifth day, meaning they'll just never get the developmental time as hitters that every single position player prospect gets.

I know you're being hyperbolic, but this just isn't the same thing. All through their development, position players bat day-in, day-out, and get exposed to pitching at every level of the minors. On the other hand, pitchers in the majors and minors get at-bats at best once every five days. But it's worse than that--pitching prospects don't bat at all in Rookie Ball, A-, or A+, and only bat in AA and AAA if both teams are affiliates of NL teams. Pitchers just don't get the kind of everyday reps that are essential to knowing what you're doing at the plate in major leagues. And that's not true at all for position players, so your argument is absolutely apples and oranges rather than evidence of a slippery slope.

I agree in theory, but you just can't do it that way with an odd number of teams in each league (15 each, ever since the Astros moved over). The alternative would be one team in each league taking each weekend off, and that's an even worse option. Bold Prediction: With the current CBA expiring at the end of 2016, the new CBA will institute a DH in both leagues.

This was a great read--thank you so much for taking the time to share your inside perspective with the Twins Daily community!

Can't wait! I'll be there with Mrs. Wookiee!

I wonder if any of this could be related to shifts? There was a lot of talk about shifting on Mauer last year, but I don't think I've heard any more comments about it this year, and don't know how common it's been. Nevertheless, shifts are much more common with the bases empty than with runners on that the defense needs to hold. Makes me wonder if there's a connection.