AlwaysinModeration

Fun topic. Also fun to look at last year’s list. A notable miss from last year’s list was Escobar, whose great four months netted him a big return. Turns out he had a lot of value, especially if Duran turns into a frontline starter. In terms of Javier moving up two spots, I’m trying to reverse engineer that move. Without going name by name, I see 12 players who should be clearcut top 15 ahead of him (and that includes May). That leaves 3 spots for Rogers, Rooker, Larnach, Thorpe, Garver, and Austin. Which three are top 15, and which are outside the top 20?

Hicks posted an OPS of .787 in the second half of 2015 before he was traded. Dozier played worse with the Dodgers than he did with the Twins (which was saying something). Anyway, I disagree with your premise.

You are right, not safe to assume any extension can be had for any of the three. However, Gibson is a long-time organizational player (and the player rep), and the Twins invested in Pineda when he was injured, so I think both would give them consideration. But even if they wind up with none of them next year, I think that Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves and Mejia (plus Thorpe and Little) are plenty enough to work on as a basis for a rotation in 2020, which could be supplemented by an extra arm via free agency. My point is just that I don’t think that there is “nothing” in the cupboard for 2020. I would not be targeting an extension for Odorizzi.

A few important questions: 1. How does one pronounce “Jhoan”? 2. Is his nickname Jhoan “Hungry Likes the Wolves” Duran or just Jhoan “Duran” Duran? 3. Can he be convinced to start calling himself Johan?

To follow up on this, I looked up Gonsalves’ minor league numbers: 108 games started, 599IP, 2.42ERA, 1.10WHIP, 9.5/3.6 K/BB. Duran’s numbers: 54GS, 259IP, 4.02ERA, 1.32WHIP, 8.0/3.2K/BB. Gonsalves had 4 mediocre starts in the big leagues and people have written him off. Not to throw shade on Duran, like I said I hope he turns into a great prospect for the Twins and sustains the improvement. I would have Gonsalves ahead of Duran on prospect lists, though. He could turn into a mainstay in the rotation for years to come. Duran is a long way from becoming that. Edit to add: I see that you have Gonsalves ahead of Duran, Tom. But two of the four of you have Gonsalves ranked lower than Duran. I think that Gonsalves’ mediocre debut shouldn’t tarnish his outlook. Remember Berrios....

Certainly hope that the performance Duran finished the year with is a new level for him that he can sustain. Quite something that some of you have him in the top 10 of Twins prospects, ahead of all SPs aside from Graterol. (Ahead of Gonsalves?!? Wasn’t he the top of some lists last year? Has he fallen that far, or is Duran really that good?)

Taking a slightly different tack on this. If I recall correctly, Gibson was brought up late one season, to the point where the Twins gained an extra year of service time. If Gibson has a great year this year, he is going to set himself up for a significantly higher contract next offseason than if he were a free agent right now. So having that extra year could actually wind up helping Gibson earn a lot more money. This backs up a point I was making about Buxton. The assumption is he is getting screwed by losing a year of service time, but maybe that’s not definitive. The other point I’d make is - why so much fretting about who they have have under contract for 2020? They have Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves, and Mejia. They can extend any of Gibson, Odorizzi or Pineda next offseason if need be. And there is next year’s free agency market too. I’m not too worried about filling out their rotation in 2020 right now. But in answer to the question, I personally would prefer extending Gibson, a guy who the Twins have invested a lot of time in, and who finally seems to have come into his own, rather than a guy they just got, who seems worse.

While I would have no problem with Keuchel signing, I think Cahill or Buchholz would be just fine as a SP signing. But I would like that supplemented with two RP signings. Kelvin Herrera (hopefully two years) and Zach Britton are both fairly young and have excellent track records. Robertson and Miller would also be great options. Adding Cahill, Herrera and Britton would be a great result for the pitching staff offseason, in my view.

Touché. He definitely hasn’t had the same immediate success as some other players his age.

Even in this hypothetical situation where he is OPSing under 600 in June, he will still be a 25 year old with 1600 ABs of 875 OPS in the minors and 1200 ABs of 665 OPS in the majors. Maybe he won't ever get up to 875 in the majors, but my money is on the likelihood he starts posting seasonal OPS of 750+ sooner rather than later, with >800 OPS well within his reach. I wouldn't say Hicks is a late bloomer, either - he reached his full potential in his age 27 and 28 seasons, right when he should have. Buxton is still two years away from hitting his prime.

I am sure the Yankees will be more than happy to take him off of the Twins' hands if he posts two months of sub 600 OPS next year. It would provide some nice parallel structure. On June 12, 2015, (after starting the year -- his age 25 season -- in Rochester, through May 12), Aaron Hicks was demoted. His OPS was .599. Then the Twins traded him at the end of the year...even though he OPSed 750+ down the stretch. With the Yankees as a 26 year old in 2016 he OPSed 617. Then 864 and 833 the last two seasons.

Quit the depression talk...happy birthday, diehard!

There are any number of articles detailing how the small sample size of spring training has almost no bearing on regular season performance. I’ve said this before, but let me try one more time. Buxton is 25. He posted overall minor league numbers of OPS 850+, with over 900OPS in AAA, en route to becoming the top prospect in all of baseball. He hasn’t achieved anywhere near those heights in the majors yet. But as we’ve seen from many, many players, it can take a while for hitters to put it together against MLB pitchers. I think we can all agree that we want Buxton to become a standout player, with the bat as well as his glove. I think that the best way for him to get there is to play CF for the Twins all year in 2019 - even if he has a lousy spring training. I also think it is very useful for the front office and new manager to give him a vote of confidence that he isn’t going to be immediately demoted if he has a bad start. (Which is apparently what many of the posters on TD would be prepared to do.)

Interestingly, Tyler Wells isn’t on any of their breakouts lists for 2019, either. (Go buy the handbook to find out who is). He does get a nice long article as the organization’s pitcher of the year, and as he landed that award, it does seem fitting that he isn’t really a good breakout candidate. While he would technically fit the bill (top 30 with a chance to break into the top 10), it wouldn’t really be under the radar. I also found it noteworthy that Wells dropped 60 pounds over the last couple of years.

Seth, Tom and Cody— I just bought the PDF version of the handbook. Not only have I been enjoying it, I am also very glad to support you guys for all of your work on this site. The handbook is extremely well done. Congratulations, and more importantly, thank you! Two things: 1. Was there a profile of Misael Urbina? If so I think I missed it. Saw his rankings in the top 20 for two of you. 2. I won’t give away all of the “breakouts” candidates you have all selected (people should go buy the handbook to find them; they are starred in the player profiles), but I will share one of them, with this great nugget, paraphrased: A scout said that if Blaine Enlow had gone to LSU (he had committed there and would have been a sophomore now), he would have easily landed in the top 15 picks of the draft after three years (2020 draft). So by getting him to sign as a high schooler, the Twins essentially stole a first round pick.

One interesting aspect of this situation is that there is a presumption by everyone involved (Buxton, the front office, the fine, obtuse and hypocritical Twins Daily posters alike) that the Twins’ adding another year of Buxton service time is costing him lots of money. I don’t necessarily think that is the case for Buck. First of all, if he were arbitration eligible this year, how much would he make? I don’t know exactly, but I am guessing around $3mm. Then he could have a good year, and jump to $6 or $7mm next year, and then $10-$12mm in two years, before becoming a free agent. However, if has a strong year this year, I think it is reasonable that he could get more in arbitration next year, say $5mm. He could make $9-10 the following year, and maybe $12-$15mm in three years. (Remember, Jonathan Schoop was set to make $10mm this year). So he will likely be making higher arbitration salaries by the delay. What about his first free agent contract? Obviously, being young when you hit FA is a bonus, so getting his big payday for his age 28 season would be better than age 29. However, it seems clear he hasn’t established himself as a superstar yet. (If he were a free agent, I wonder what he’d get on the open market right now?). I think it is more likely that he establishes himself in the next four years rather than the next three. So having four more years as a Twin before his first FA contract might actually help him have enough time to become one of the best players in the game. A lot of that is speculation, but I just thought I’d point out that it’s not 100% cut and dried that losing a year of service time absolutely hurts Buxton.

Just to explore this a bit further, I went to look up the career splits for Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, and Sano. Adding in minor league and major league ABs: Kepler vs RHP.....PA: 2722....OPS: 803....vs LHP....PA: 860...OPS: 678 Rosario vs RHP.....PA: 2974....OPS: 838....vs LHP....PA: 1203...OPS: 732 Buxton vs RHP.....PA: 1977....OPS: 792....vs LHP....PA: 697...OPS: 801 Sano vs RHP.....PA: 2760....OPS: 870....vs LHP....PA: 887...OPS: 918 Copying the other numbers as well: Austin vs RHP.....PA: 2144....OPS: 834....vs LHP....PA: 927...OPS: 811 Cron vs RHP.....PA: 2716....OPS: 790....vs LHP....PA: 1030...OPS: 833 Cave vs RHP.....PA: 2355....OPS: 815....vs LHP....PA: 836...OPS: 632 Cruz vs RHP.....PA: 4651....OPS: 835....vs LHP....PA: 1767...OPS: 927 Certainly seems like Austin should be in the OF every time a lefty is on the mound, subbing in for either Kepler or Rosario. And he should start at 1B against righties.

For both Cron and Austin, they had K/BB numbers in the minors of about 2.5 to 1. In the majors, Cron’s rate jumped to 4:1, whereas Austin’s has jumped to 5:1. For Nelson Cruz, he had a similar rate of 2.5 or so to 1 K/BB in the minors and also in the majors. I would assume that both Austin and Cron would improve their K/BB rates over time, gravitating towards their minor league rates. On a slightly different note, Justin Bour has an OPS of 853 against righties, better than Austin, Cron, Cave and Cruz!

Becoming a good or very good Major League baseball player is a long process, which clearly differs from player to player. If you look at Hicks, you can see the almost linear progression of his career: play at a level, perform at a pretty mediocre level, repeat the level, perform at a high level, get promoted, perform poorly, repeat. He was moved up slowly, getting to the bigs by 23. He didn’t do well in the majors at first, as we all remember. And it took him longer to adjust in the majors than at any other level. But he now seems to have arrived, putting up the numbers that were there from his minor league track record. Buxton has not had nearly such a linear path. Yet as a top pick and a top prospect, he was promoted aggressively, getting to the show when he was 21. Even with the quick promotions, he posted an .874 OPS for his minor league career over 1600 PAs, with the most ABs at AAA posting .901. In the majors, he has accumulated 1000 PAs and OPSed .674. To me, he has earned the chance to play every day in the majors, and we should look for progress from him this year, not a finished product. He won’t OPS .874 this year, but topping .750 would be a great step towards achieving his potential. When he puts it all together with the bat, we can expect him to post seasons topping 800 OPS. Combined with his all-world defense, that is going to generate all star nods and MVP votes. He needs to be in CF all year this year. That isn’t rewarding him unjustly, that is part of the process.

I’d say he’s closer to Aaron Hicks. Both were five-tool athletic high school outfielders drafted by the Twins in the first round, who were high on prospect lists. In Hicks’ first four seasons in the show, age 23-26, he posted three seasons on OPS’ in the 600s, including his age 26 season with the Yankees, after the Twins gave up on him and traded him for a marginal catcher who is no longer with the organization. In the last two years, Hicks has posted 800+ OPS each year, hitting 15 and 27 home runs respectively. In his first four seasons in the bigs, from age 21-24, Buxton has posted two seasons of OPS over 700, one in the 600s, and then last year (I won’t mention). He’s also already won a gold glove / platinum glove, and generally considered he best CF in the game. He is 25 this year, with two full seasons before he hits his prime. (And the Twins have him under team control for two of his three prime years, which are generally age 27-29). Incidentally, he also has 29 consecutive stolen bases, more than halfway to the MLB record. As for anyone arguing that the Twins should pull the plug on Buxton in April, I don’t even know where to start. (Perhaps at Cooperstown at David Ortiz’ HOF induction ceremony in a few years?)

I don’t think even Baines was pushing for Baines for the HOF.

I don't like that he gets interviewed at a charity and says that he doesn't want to talk about the situation, and winds up doing it anyway, and saying some things that can be spun as disgruntled and will likely cause him a headache. Everyone knows that the management did a business move by not calling him up. You can squint and see their justification base on the numbers and the play, but obviously it was all about having him as a Twin in 2022 as a 28 year old instead of hitting free agency. Buxton is a super-2. He's a Twin for 2019, 2020, 2021, and now also 2022. I think he is going to play CF full-time this year, hopefully getting ABs in the top part of the line-up sooner rather than later. I think he will win another gold glove, and improve all of the pitchers' performances. And I think he is going to start hitting this year, putting up a 750+ OPS (maybe 800+) with a bunch of homers and triples. Then next off-season, I hope the FO signs him to an extension (off the top of my head, 5 years, $60million, buying out two years of FA at $20mm per year?) that puts this whole issue to bed.

Sorry for the weird formatting. In any event, the narrative that Austin can only hit LHP is based on his MLB numbers, which is a small sample, and is incorrect when you add in his minor league stats. So, in answer to the question, what do you do about Austin, I say "keep him!" He can play 1B full-time, or DH, or even play some OF. Even if they sign Cruz, I think there is plenty of reason to keep Austin around. (And don't forget, they gave up Lynn to get him.)

I dug through the bbref pages to pull up the platoon splits for Austin, Cron, Cave and Cruz, including their minors numbers (but not Cruz' minors; plenty to go on from his MLB resume). Here are the results, which were somewhat surprising to me: Player PA vs RHP OPS vs RHP PA vs LHP OPS vs LHP Austin 2144 .... .834 .... 927 ... .811 Cron 2716 ... .790 ... 1030 ... .833 Cave 2355 ... .815 ... 836 ... .632 Cruz 4651 ... .835 .... 1767 ... .927 So Cruz, unsurprisingly, is the best player of the four, regardless of the starting pitcher. Signing him should help the team, depending, of course, on how much he declines. Note that Cruz OPSed over 850 in two of the past three years versus right handers. The second most valuable player from that group, in my view, is Austin. He has hit RHP just as well as Nelson Cruz over his career! Cave looks like the third most valuable, with an OPS north of 800 against RHP, which is more than 70% of the ABs. Of course, as a lefty with Kepler and Rosario, he doesn't have a good path to ABs in the OF, and he doesn't hit righties better than Austin or Cruz, either. And he is terrible versus lefties. Cron looks weakest from this group. Sure, he mashes lefties, but not much more than Austin, and definitely not more than Cruz.

Would like to see them sign Cruz. But would it really mean the end for Austin? A four person bench; catcher, MI, OF, 1B/DH type? I kind of feel like Austin has some nice upside. As for the others, Soria, sure. Others, not as sure. Ramos would be an upgrade, but Garver thrived last year.