Parker Hageman

Download attachment: Hendriks2.jpg On Thursday night, the Minnesota Twins showcased two of their potential starters for their remaining rotation vacancy – Liam Hendriks and Cole Devries. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Together, the pair silenced the Yankees’ bats over eight innings, allowing just one unearned run over eight innings. Of course, spring training is not about the results but the process. For Hendriks, that process included peppering in more non-fastballs. As was discussed during the Fox Sports North broadcast, the Twins staff were looking for Hendriks to mix in more of his secondary offerings after he became what they felt was too reliant on his fastball during his last outing. “It was coming out of my hand well,” Hendriks told reports afterwards. “Curveball was good. Mainly slider to the righties, curveball to the lefties." Perhaps Hendriks’ biggest issue right now is his inability to shut down right-handed hitters. Last year, lefties slapped him around to the tune of .768 OPS. Righties, meanwhile, torched him with a 1.020 OPS. Among starters with a minimum of 30 innings against right-handed hitters, Hendriks’ .351 batting average was the highest in baseball. Against righties, he is a two-pitch pitcher, arming himself with a fastball and a slider. The slider, up to this point in his career, has been a detriment to his success. According to BaseballProspectus.com’s leaderboard, Hendriks’ slider created the lowest percentage of outs in baseball last year. His slider had “put away” just 4.1% of hitters on the times it was thrown, making it terribly ineffective. C.C. Sabathia, a Yankee sitting across the field from Hendriks yesterday, managed to retire 32% of his opponents on that pitch – the highest rate in baseball. It does not take a math major to realize there is a huge chasm between the results of Sabathia’s offering and the one Hendriks spins. Did we learn anything new from this most recent spring start? Probably not. After all, the Yankees only threw out three right-handed hitters against Hendriks: Kevin Youkilis, Eduardo Nunez and Francisco Cervelli. A literal non-Murderer’s Row of Yankee sluggers. Nevertheless, to his credit, with the exception of the fourth-inning walk to the shaved Youkilis, Hendriks did his job – none of the aforementioned righties reached base. I’ve cited several times over that one of Hendriks’s biggest issues is his slider and the coaching staff likely recognizes this as well. During his last bullpen session prior to the start, the 24 year-old struggled with his secondary offerings’ location. “During my bullpen, during my offspeed, I could not locate a single thing,” Hendriks told reporters. “It was disgraceful. [Anderson] said ‘Stay back, stay relaxed.’” Unquestionably, the curveball looked sharp. He maintained a strong 12-to-6 break with this pitch and kept the Yankees’ left-handed unit at bay, one that included renowned sluggers like Travis Hafner and World Baseball Classic winner, Robinson Cano. Hendriks’ fastball command helped set up that giant breaking ball and kept the lefties off-balanced for the duration of his outing. But there were occasions in while he seemed to lack the confidence in that pitch. During an early battle with Hafner, the Aussie held a 2-2 advantage but shook catcher Drew Butera off twice before throwing a fastball (a ball) and then followed it up with a second fastball (fouled off) before missing with a curve. The shake-off could have been a cat-and-mouse game of shaking off a fastball only to set up Hafner for the fastball still, however, his admittance of command issues of his breaking stuff in his recent pen session only seems to reaffirm the notion that Hendriks shook off a curve. If 2012 has any bearings on it, Hendriks has demonstrated that he shies away from his breaking stuff when he is ahead of the hitters. Look at his pitch breakdown from BrooksBaseball.com from last year: Download attachment: Hendriks.PNG What Hendriks needs is more confidence in his secondary pitches. He pitches backwards by throwing his non-fastballs out-front but he fails in the sense that he does not have a put-away pitch. Spotting his fastball will only get him so far. And, to this point in his career, that has meant success at Triple-A. With Samuel Deduno making a strong case for one of the two positions open in the rotation, the race is tightening between Hendriks and Devries. Click here to view the article

This past week the Twins made several notable moves that affected their payroll – signing free agent reliever Joel Zumaya and coming to terms with several arbitration-eligible players including Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano. The Twins signed Zumaya to an incentive-laden deal that can be as little of a commitment as $400,000 if he fails to break camp with the team all the way up to $1.75 million if he reaches certain performance bonuses. Shortly thereafter, the team agreed to deal with Perkins ($1.55 million) and Liriano ($5.5 million) while continuing to work on an agreement with their last arb-eligible player, second baseman Alexi Casilla. Casilla’s camp submitted a figure of $1.75 million while the Twins countered with a deal offered $1.065. Considering this organization does not enter arbitration with players regularly, it is assumed that the team and Casilla will eventually split the difference on a one-year contract. Given those recent transactions, here is the current 2012 projected payroll based on the existing knowledge found at Cot’s Contracts and the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen’s prior assumptions: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: Twins Payroll Estimate_1.23.12.jpg As of right now, the Twins are anticipated to spend around $98.5 million on the 2012 team. That is significantly under the $115 million that the 2011 team was paid out, however, given the ownership’s desire to lower than figure, the drop-off should not be surprising. (You can certainly argue the merits of the decrease but you cannot say it was unexpected.) A few months after La Velle Neal’s interview with Jim Pohlad, the team fired general manager Bill Smith and replaced him with Terry Ryan. During Ryan’s reintroduction press conference in November, he gave a few more details regarding the payroll number: At the $98.5 million mark, the payroll is right in that sweet spot of where Ryan was describing. Because of that, it isn’t necessarily a given that the team will seek to spend that $1.5 million remaining from the assumed $100 million payroll. If Ryan opts to close up shop right now and move forward with the present lot, no one could blame him. Then again, that wouldn’t be in the best interest of the on-field product, especially considering the state of the bullpen. Even though Zumaya could be a very capable arm, based on his injury history, there is no guarantee he can sustain the duration of the season (in fact, I would easily bet against him making the maximum of his contract). Outside of Zumaya, the Twins have a bevy of intriguing yet unproven right-handed arms. The most prudent thing would be to use that money towards signing someone like Todd Coffey or Dan Wheeler. As I outlined recently, Coffey could be a valuable but inexpensive addition to the bullpen to stave off right-handed foes. Making just $1.35 million with the Nationals last year, Coffey figures to have his potential earnings diluted in the current plethora of relievers on the market and could easily be signed for $1.5 million or less. Meanwhile Wheeler, who is even more of a threat against right-handed hitters than Coffey, made a pretty penny in Boston a year ago ($3 million) but a shoulder injury at the end of the season combined with the deep market could also push him into that $1.5 million range as well. Either option would be a solid addition to deepen a fairly shallow bullpen. For the Twins, who are down to their final few shillings, choosing to spend that $1.5 million to land a bargain bin-priced reliever would undoubtedly strengthen the pitching staff. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Worley.jpg Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire confirmed a floating rumor this afternoon that Vance Worley will be indeed be the Twins’ Opening Day starter. The 25-year-old right-hander, who had tossed five innings of seven hit, two run ball with five strikeouts this afternoon, has had an up-and-down spring, amassing a 7.36 ERA coming off a season in which he had minor clean-up in his pitching elbow.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Still, with Mike Pelfrey still inconsistent due to his Tommy John recovery, Worley appears to be the best option to take on Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers on Monday. While Worley may not be of Verlanderian caliber, the announcement brings to an end this sad graphic which was displayed on the Twins’ website: Download attachment: TwinsGraphic.jpg Worley’s methods include an array of pitches, none of which missed bats at a high frequency, and his chief method of achieving a striking out is to get hitters looking. A year ago, Worley pitched 133 innings in 23 starts, with a 6-9 record and a 4.20 ERA in addition to a 107-to-47 strikeouts-to-walks ratio before being shut down with elbow tenderness. Following Wednesday’s game, Gardenhire told reporters that he expects the new acquisition to reach the 200-inning plateau in 2013. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 10-17.jpg Beneath the fold of the October 17 edition of the Star Tribune was a story that may have grabbed larger headlines anywhere outside of this market. On the morning of October 14, an eighteen-month-old little girl by the name of Jessica had horrifically fallen 22 feet into a well in the backyard of a Midland home in West Texas. Improbably, she lasted two days and change without food and water while rescuers dug through bedrock to reach her. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] When she was lifted out of the narrow hole on October 16, she was caked in dirt but retrived without a scratch. It was nothing short of miraculous. On a far less life-threatening level, Minnesota baseball fans had witnessed their own miracle and the citizens reacted with the same jubilation and exuberance. Pitted against a Detroit Tigers’ team which had won more games than anyone in baseball while scoring nearly six runs per game -- a team which had won 8 of 12 and outscored them 83-to-58 -- the Twins had somehow emerged victorious. On October 16, World Series fever had a full-out stranglehold on the Twin Cities. It would be, after all, the first World Series played in Minnesota in 22 years. This Minneapolis-St Paul was completely different from the sleepy town that hosted its first Series in 1965. When the Dodgers came to Minnesota that year, the rivalry between the Twin Cities was still going strong to the point where a disagreement on daylight savings time resulted in an hour difference between the two metropolitan cities divided by a river. The area’s population had exploded in the 1980s and the new inhabitants were elated to be on baseball’s grand stage. Nothing else mattered. The night before, the NBA made a preseason appearance at the Met Center. The Milwaukee Bucks hosted the Seattle SuperSonics in front of a crowd of 5,350 -- a lowly number even by preseason standards. Met Center officials admitted they were anticipating 7,500 to 9,500 but when the World Series forced the University of Minnesota to reschedule their football game from Saturday, October 16 to Friday, October 15 it creating a head-to-head with the exhibition game. But David Shama, the Met Center’s marketing director, told the Star Tribune’s Tom Moton that the real reason for the sparse crowd was the Twins mania that had swept the area since clinching the American League pennant in Detroit. Nicollet Mall was freshened up with 150 new banners inscribed with “How ‘bout Them Twins?” Northwest Airlines reported that the four daily nonstop flights between Minneapolis and St. Louis with 422 seats were sold out for the impending games in St. Louis. Juan Berenguer, Tony Oliva Les Straker and Al Newman took to Prince’s Chanhassen studio to record “The Berenguer Boogie”, an anthem and video created in what seemed to be 15 minutes to capture the flame-thrower’s patented move. Street vendors had flooded the downtown areas of Minneapolis and St. Paul, peddling their fresh World Series wears that people happily snapped up quickly. On the popular culture front, the Kirby Puckett haircut was suddenly (and inexplicably) a thing. The Star Tribune, who had created and distributed the Homer Hanky, announced that they were completed sold out even before to the biggest game of the decade. On the front page, Tom Culligan, the paper’s Vice President of Marketing, informed readers that there were “four factories working around the clock producing hankies” but there would be a limited number of the wildly popular handkerchief available at the Star Tribune’s headquarters that afternoon. Columnist Jim Klobuchar documented the scene. Everyone wanted one. Those who were unable to get one at the Star Tribune headquarters that day were forced to wait weeks for mail order delivery. The main event, Game One, was just a day away. ABC, who covered the World Series in odd-number years, had the privilege of broadcasting the series between two teams from fly-over land. The network would be pulling out all the stops when it comes to coverage by using 12 cameras. This is quaint compared by modern standards. In 2012, Fox employed 38 cameras total including five new slo-mo high speed cameras. But that would be for those who were not fortunate enough to score tickets to the actual game. And there were plenty who did not. Even Twins owner Carl Pohlad was not immuned to the mania gripping the fanbase - his phone wouldn’t stop ringing with ticket requests from long-lost acquaintances he told staff writers Rob Hotskainen and Randy Furst. In preparation for next day’s game, focus shifted towards the two men who would climb the mound. For Minnesota, that would be the left-handed Frank Viola. The 27-year-old Viola had finished the year 17-10 with a solid 2.90 ERA (a career-best 159 ERA+) but was facing a significant off-field ordeal: His younger brother had scheduled his wedding for October 17 and Frank was supposed to be the best man. Naturally, as much as it pained him, Frank was not going to cancel his first World Series visit for his brother’s wedding, writes Steve Aschburner. As for the match-up on the field, it was the cliched power versus speed. The Twins had slugged 196 home runs in the season while the Cardinals finished last with 97. First baseman Kent Hrbek had led the Twins with 34 home runs and could out-mash anybody on the Cards’ roster, save for the injured Jack Clark (35), but would be hard-pressed to beat any of them in a foot race around the bases with a five minute head start. The Cardinals, meanwhile, excelled in the National League thanks to strong on-base presence (.340 OBP - 4th in MLB) then robbing the next base (248 steals). They also had a stalwart pitching who allowed just 4.4 runs per game compared to the Twins’ 5 runs. Doug Grow summarized the clubs. The 1987 World Series would mark the first time baseball would play the game under a roof. The game’s purists lambasted the notion. before the Series, Peter Gammons, then with Sports Illustrated, wrote that “There’s the matter of taking any team seriously that makes its living in the Metrodome. Humpball is the name of the game played there.” Jay Weiner, who would later go on to pen Stadium Boondoggles after his coverage of the Twins’ stadium plea in the late 1990s, defended the Dome’s honor and pointed out that purists hated all changes about the game and the transition to indoor ball was a natural evolution. No one will blame Weiner for his miss on that one. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7815119.jpg When it was announced Minnesota Twins pitcher Scott Diamond went unclaimed through waivers and would not be named the fifth starter, the left-hander doffed his cap to his competition in Kyle Gibson. The decision was a tough one, with the left-hander being out of options, but Gibson’s strong spring showing ultimately won him the job. What solidified his spot in the rotation, in the manager’s mind, was a combination of his stuff and his demeanor. “The big power sinker. Right out of the get-go his ball was at a great angle and it was diving down. He just didn’t look like he was overwhelmed,” said Ron Gardenhire after the final spring training game of the year at Hammond Stadium. “Last year in spring training we saw him yanking pitches, when he came to the big league we saw him misfiring quite a bit. Catcher would be setting up inside and he would yank it all the way across the plate.” Gibson missed his spots often but pitchf/x data does not suggest he was missing out of the strike zone. In fact, Gibson was one of the most demerited pitchers when it came to pitches in the zone actually being called balls. Speaking in general to the blossoming benefits of framing, backstop Kurt Suzuki was questioned how much influence the catcher has over the calls versus the reputation and execution of the pitcher. “I don’t put too much stock in that,” Suzuki said. “Don’t get me wrong, I think that has a lot to do with it but at the same time, what a pitcher does has a lot to do with it. If he’s all over the place, he’s obviously not going to get those borderline calls, no matter how good you make it look. If you are around the plate consistently, you are going to get those calls.” In part, Gibson’s shrunken strike zone last year may have, had to do with his catchers. After all, he spent 40 of his 50 innings paired with Joe Mauer and Mauer, while a very solid receiver at gaining extra strikes at the top of the zone, had a history of not getting the calls at the bottom of the zone -- precisely where Gibson liked to work his sinker. At the same time, he was admittedly erratic with his pitches and failed to establish control. Gibson, who spent ten starts in Minnesota attempting to exploit the edges of the strike zone, said that in the moment he did not notice the scales perhaps being unfairly tipped to the hitter’s advantage. “On borderline pitches whether you’re a pitcher, hitter, catcher, whatever, it’s tough to really tell where that was,” remarked Gibson. “The way umpires can actually call those pitches as well as they do is pretty amazing, honestly.” To the naked eye, it is hard to call those pitches that fall within a fraction of an inch of the invisible strike zone. The cameras in the sky have a different perspective. According to the data, Gibson had just 73% of his in-zone pitches called strikes, well below the 81% average. Gibson believes that, if there was an effect, it likely stemmed from his inability to locate his pitches consistently. “What I was always taught in college was the more you get an umpire calling a strike, the more he’s going to call strikes on the borderline part,” he said. “And the fact of the matter was I was getting behind a lot and when it’s 1-0 and 2-0 and you’ve repeatedly shown that you can’t locate right there on the edge of the plate, you probably are not going to get that call.” That is the area that Gibson would like to focus on the most: working ahead in the count. This spring, his three walks in 16.1 innings suggest he has made strides in that department, but he recognizes that the improvement needs to come north with him. “Hopefully this year, if I am able to pound the zone and go back to those same pitches, then I might get more of those calls. But you've got to get ahead and earn the fact that you can hit that spot and I just wasn’t doing that.” If his spring performance has been any indication, he should be ready. “He’s been real consistent,” said Gardenhire. “Getting pretty close to the glove with a good angle and a hard slider and when he’s doing that, it’s hard for hitters to get on him. If he’s got that power sinker going -- at about 91, 92, 93 miles per hour. And that’s what he’s done this spring, really in control of himself.” Click here to view the article

The Twins recently announced that Target Field would be a smoke-free facility starting in 2012. Apparently, they were not referencing tobacco products but rather Carl Pavano’s fastball. Minnesota’s inning-eating stalwart of the past several seasons entered Opening Day in Baltimore and was not impressing any radar gun enthusiasts by tossing his fastball a touch over 85 miles an hour. On Saturday, Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan reported that there were some organizational staffers who were “alarmed” at this development. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: PavanoVelocity_4.8.12.jpg At Baseball Prospectus, former analyst and current Houston Astros’ staffer Mike Fast found that pitchers’ velocity is a bell curve over the course of the season: “Fastball speed for an average major-league pitcher starts at its lowest point in early April, rises by about 1.0-1.5 mph to a peak in the month of July, and declines gradually thereafter. These trends apply similarly to starting pitchers and relief pitchers.” As you can see from the chart above, like Fast’s research which showed velocity increased throughout the season, Pavano also had a gradual climb in velocity as the season progressed. In 2009 and 2010, he added roughly 2 miles an hour to his fastball. Last year, however, he was only able to dial up his heat 0.2 miles an hour. Meanwhile, this year, he has begun at his lowest starting point in the past four years. At 36 years old and coming off of two straight seasons of throwing over 222 innings -- not to mention a failure to ratchet up his fastball in 2011 like he did in 2009 and 2010 -- this may be an early indication that he could be wearing down indefinitely. To be fair, Pavano, who has never been a hard thrower even in the early stages of his career, has always relied on his fastball’s command and movement over power. Because of its pedestrian nature in comparison to the rest of the league, when he misses his spots over the plate opponents have been able to lacerate his fastball (such as what happened when Nick Markakis launched a two-run home run off of him in the first inning of Friday’s contest). For instance, in 2009, the year in which the Twins traded for him at the waiver deadline, Pavano’s fastball was valued at -23.8 runs below average by Fangraphs.com – the worst rate in baseball among qualified starters. The following year it came in at -7.2, a fair improvement but still near the bottom of the league. Last season his fastball finished at -25.6, second only to A.J. Burnett’s -34. Despite all of that, Pavano has managed to remain a pitcher who has turned in consecutive seasons of 3 wins above replacement since 2009. What allowed him to succeed despite the sheer obliteration of his heater was guile – throwing a decent combination of a slider and changeup that incited plenty of opponents to expand the strike zone and swing at less than favorable pitches. Between 2009 and 2011, he was able to get hitters to swing at 34.4 percent of out-of-zone pitches – the second-highest amount in baseball. In short, opponents were less likely to square up on a ball that is off the plate leading to more outs for Pavano in spite of chucking a lackluster fastball. But here’s another factor that should be considered as his velocity declines: the differential between his fastball and his off-speed pitches is eroding. Along with his command and movement, the secondary pitches provided Pavano with a change of speed that disrupted the opposition’s timing. Baseball researcher Dave Allen discovered that the optimal differential between a fastball and a changeup to be effective is between 5% and 12%. In essence, anything below 5% and anything above 12% gives the hitter a better read on the pitch. For Pavano, in 2009 and 2010, he had an approximate nine mile per hour differential between his fastball and his changeup. This resulted in differentials of 10.2% in ‘09 and 9.4% in ’10. Last season, he posted a differential of 8.8%, still within the sweet spot Allen described but was definitely trending downward as his fastball’s velocity decreased. In just his one start, he held a differential of 4.5% slightly below the threshold for effectiveness. In theory, if Pavano continues to throw his fastball and changeup in this range, he will lose the ability to fool hitters with the off-speed stuff. Yes, it is just one outing, and his first of the year at that, but there are some signs which suggest Pavano may be in line for a hard season if he is unable to add some MPHs to his fastball. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: The Freak.jpg On Thursday, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs.com tweeted out a very depressing but all too telling statistic about the Minnesota Twins’ rotation: The bullpen staff has 17 more strikeouts than the starting rotation. Sure, it is bleak but it is not as historically awful as it sounds: The current 12.3% strikeout rate by the Twins’ staff ranks 203rd among MLB starting rotations dating back to 1961. The issue, however, is that the Twins are trending in the wrong direction. Since 2008 [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]he game has seen a proliferation of K’s like no other era. In fact, since 2008, the strikeout rate in MLB has been set and broken each season. Meanwhile, this season’s 18.7% league-wide strikeout rate has been the best ever. As bats have become more porous or the strike zone has expanded or the ball has become easier to spin, the Twins have failed to collect any pitchers who can capitalize on this growing whiff movement. At the player development level, the organization is slowly bringing along hurlers who have strikeout capabilities but the cavalry is still several years away. While developing pitchers is ultimately the best method for long-term success, it is clear in order to improve soon the Twins will have to acquire an arm either by trade or the free agent market. As one Twins front office member described to me, the organization has had interest in plenty of free agent starting pitchers but have been eschewed by the players and their agents for competitive reasons. For example, while his season wound up plenty disappointing, the veteran Dan Haren’s interest was to play for a presumed contender in the Washington Nationals. So after what will be a third 90-loss season, the Twins may yet again fall short of being able to lure a pitcher with a similar track record as a Dan Haren. Of course, money can change minds and the Twins may be at the point of needing to overpay for talent – at least to appease the dwindling ticket-buying consumers. Here are four strikeout pitchers who should be on the team’s radar: Tim Lincecum: A two-time Cy Young winner as recently as 2009, the now 29-year-old Lincecum has fallen from elite status as his velocity has dipped and his walk rate swelled. Hitters were able to tee up on both his fastball and change-up in 2012 which dramatically increased his home run rate. What’s interesting about the home run distribution lately is that the vast majority are pulled. Prior to the velocity decrease in 2012, the ones he allowed were to the middle of the park – hitters were not able to yank his offerings. Now, they have turned on the fastball/change as the velo discrepancies shrank significantly. Why would the Twins want him? Well, he still misses bats at a very high rate. As it stands right now, the Twins’ bullpen has more strikeouts than the starting rotation. Strikeouts are fascist but this rotation is desperate for a little of that action. Of the soon-to-be free agent starters, Lincecum’s 23.8% strikeout rate over the last three years leads the group. That would be a pretty sexy addition. The downside is he walks a ton too and that is the baggage the organization has shied away from. What’s more, Target Field is much more home run friendly than Lincecum’s former home at AT&T Park in San Francisco so in addition to seeing lineups with DH's upon switching from the NL to the AL, he could also be stepping into an environment which will inflate his home run rate. Ervin Santana: The word is Santana actually likes pitching in Kansas City, which means he may opt to stick around America’s bread basket. That puts the Twins at a disadvantage considering the Royals are actually competitive and the Twins are still in a rebuild. That said, it is possible that the Royals decide to not bring him back and, considering his volatility in recent years, he may be a less desired product than some of the other free agents on the market. Whatever he did, he started to throw more strikes and pepper the zone regularly while in a Royals uniform. This translated into fewer walks. He kept the ball down better which resulted in fewer home runs as well, which was a huge change from the previous season. Last year he allowed 39 home runs but has reduced that to 22 so far this year. One interesting note: After allowing 16 home runs up the middle, he has allowed just 7 that direction this year. (Caveat: It is possible that the 39 home runs allowed in 2012 were simply fluky when you consider how many left the park in the furthest reaches of the field.) Over the past three years, Santana’s held the second-lowest batting average on balls in play (.240) among free agents. This usually means hitters have a tough time squaring up on a pitcher – which is true for Santana – however he allowed 39 home runs a year ago meaning that a vast majority of balls that would have counted towards that BABIP left the field in a painful way. Phil Hughes: Baseball America’s fourth overall prospect in 2007. As a major leaguer, Phil Hughes’ career has been inconsistent in New York. Part of that may have to do with facing the beasts of the AL East while another half of that is performing in Yankee Stadium with the favorable hitting conditions. How badly has Yankee Stadium victimized him? Since 2000, Hughes’ home run-to-fly ball ratio of 13.1% has been the 14th highest in baseball among those with 300 innings. Meanwhile, away from Yankee Stadium, Hughes has had a 7% home run-to-fly ball ratio, the second-lowest among starting pitchers (only Clayton Kershaw is better). Clearly, moving him away from the Bronx and say moving into a home run suppressing venue like Target Field would be in his best interest. In terms of strikeouts, he will not put up gaudy totals. In fact, his rates are surprisingly average in that department. His slider is his only swing-and-miss pitch and that carries just a 12.6% swinging strike rate (below average for a slider). Johan Santana: Yes, the former Twin has had a rash of dehabilitating injuries in New York and the most recent one offers no guarantee that he will be ready to shoulder an entire season but, when healthy, he’s been a dominating force. He has expressed interest in pitching again in 2013 and will need just a one-year, make good Mike Pelfrey-type of deal. How sweet would it be to see Santana out on the Target Field mound again? (Answer: Very.) Beyond just nostalgia, there is a possibility that Santana may actually pitch well too. In 2012, his last healthy season, Santana whiffed 22.3% of batters faced. The velocity certainly isn’t what it used to be, as he now has a DeLorean fastball (88 miles per hour) but that cotton ball of a change-up has still made batters look foolish as hell. The flipside is that both age (34) and numerous surgeries could mean that Santana never recovers and winds up a Rich Harden or Joel Zumaya for the Twins. It would definitely be a low risk but high reward move. Plus I want to rock the “Santana” shirsey one last time. Man oh man. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morneau.jpg On a gorgeous Minnesota July afternoon, Jack Goin, the Twins’ manager of major league administration and baseball research, sits in the Target Field broadcast booth high above the playing field. Below, the Twins are taking batting practice and a variation of infield warm-ups that happens behind protective screens at every base. There is controlled chaos with batted balls going every direction. The team is preparing for that evening’s game. Goin, meanwhile, is a part of the Twins’ front office team that has been preparing for the upcoming trade deadline.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Since the June draft, the organization’s attention has shifted toward the game’s big swap meet on the last day of July. The internal process for preparing for the trade deadline starts with an abundance of prospect research and scouting reports. Goin reviews each organization’s top prospects, adding others who may be intriguing statistically, and connects with the team’s director of pro scouting, Vern Followell, to compare notes. “We start looking at if we have reports on prospects, real prospects, which everyone has ranked. We look at the top 20, top 30, whatever, specifically of those teams that are in the buying mode,” Goin says. “Now whether that is off those lists or I’ve gone through and tried to cross-check it myself and say here are guys we should have interest in regardless of what our scouting reports say. Then we talk about it.” This is when Goin’s statistical favorites are vetted through the lens of the scout. Followell and his team’s scouting reports may help illuminate why prospects are having an abundance of unexpected success. They may be hitters seeing a high percentage of fastballs in bandbox minor league parks or pitchers who are old for that particular level and are thriving by spinning off curveballs in the dirt; essentially, players who are succeeding through methods that may become ineffective as they progress up the minor league system. Occasionally, a potentially useful prospect may fly under the radar and require further scouting. It could be due to Goin’s research or a scout’s recommendation that a player was identified, but the Twins want to be as thorough and complete with their information as possible if a team unexpectedly calls to discuss a deal. “We try to make sure we haven’t missed anybody to limit the emergency visits as you get close [to the deadline]. It’s kind of like the draft; you are flying across the country at the last minute.” If a team has an information advantage going into the trade deadline, it means they can swap a David Hollins for a David Ortiz or turn a Brian Buchanan into a Jason Bartlett. Of course, those types of trades seem like ages ago for the ballclub. When was the last time the Twins could consider themselves the indisputable victor? Since then, teams have beefed up their analytics departments as well as their scouting teams. On their website, the Twins have 14 people listed under Baseball Operations. By comparison, the Pittsburgh Pirates, baseball’s newest surging darling, have 37 Baseball Operations employees, involving both scouts and analysts. Even small-market teams like the Pirates are going on the offensive when it comes to identifying as well as retaining talent. Goin agrees that the constructs of the trade deadline have changed. “There’s a difference in what the trade deadline is now versus what the trade deadline used to be,” he added. “I think it used to be more of a negotiation where you say we’re not giving up this guy and you get a list of A, B and C and you can take one guy from A and one guy from B and two guys from C, or whatever the combination.” “Because there is so much prep work – between analysis and scouting – teams really funnel down who they want. They say if you want this guy, we need this guy, this guy and this guy. Or they have a formula of we need a guy who's close in Triple-A, maybe a lesser ceiling, we need a certain position and then we want another guy that is low but has a chance to be the guy.” The Cubs’ recent Matt Garza trade demonstrates this mentality. With the Rangers in need of additional pitching and the Cubs looking to rebuild, they landed Mike Olt, a third base prospect with some major league experience, Justin Grimm, a starting pitcher with 22 major league games under his belt and then a lower level pitcher, C.J. Edwards, who has plenty of upside. The Cubs will also be entitled to a player-to- be-named-later as well. One starter with an expiring contract landed Chicago up to four useful chips. How do trade talks start? In the movie Moneyball, Brad Pitt ate three fistfuls of popcorn, made five calls and dealt two players – all in the span of ten minutes. That is the Hollywood version of what is often a lengthy process. Some teams will first try to determine the lay of the land early in the month of July. Calls will be made by various members of the front office to former colleagues or friends in another organization, putting out feelers to gauge interest. What do they need? Are they looking to shop anyone? Maybe a follow-up call is made. This is done by buyers and sellers alike but not the Twins, says Goin. That is not how they operate. For the Twins, trade talks can start in the stands at a game with an innocuous conversation between scouts. “You’ll get one of our scouts calling in and he’ll say I was talking to so-and-so at the park the other day and they've got interest in this guy or need a backup catcher and we need a utility infielder. Then Terry [Ryan] would just respond by saying tell them to call us.” Some general managers use the media as a means of letting other teams know that they are buyers or sellers. Ryan recently used the local scribes to let people know the team would listen to offers on anyone, thereby letting other GMs know the Twins are open for business. Others use media to gain information, particularly from MLBTradeRumors.com. “Everybody monitors that stuff,” acknowledges Goin. “There are GMs that see something and they call right away and they admit, hey, I saw on MLB Trade Rumors that you guys are shopping Liriano.” The trade market changes on the fly. One day a GM may be checking to see if his office phone is actually plugged in, to having it ring incessantly. Houston’s GM Jeff Luhnow said that prior to the Garza trade there was little discussion for the Astros’ right-handed starter Bud Norris. Now, with Garza off the board, Luhnow expects to have more frequent conversations regarding his player. As the trade deadline plays out, teams that are buying may become more desperate. At the same time, selling teams may wait too long and miss out on the buyer's market. Timing is everything. Part of that timing is deciding whether the team is a buyer or seller. There is no magic date in the schedule by which teams make that decision. The Twins do not run projections at the All-Star break to calculate what the remainder of the season is going to look like. The standings tell them everything they need to know. A double-digit deficit can be a gentle reminder that the season is not going as desired and the team will find itself in the sellers camp. “Depending on where you are, you try to hang on. Sometimes you may hang on too long,” says Goin. “We’re all competitive and it is hard to get that out of your system. We still want to compete, we want to win. There are a lot of things that go into making a trade. Then there are times that it is obvious that you are out of it.” And this is one of those times. Having seen this season play out and now going on three losing years, the Twins would be fooling themselves if they believe they should be anything but sellers. Minnesota’s most valuable trade commodity is Glen Perkins. In additional to being an elite reliever, he has an extremely team-friendly contract. Because of baseball’s enlightenment that says stats like the save are overvalued, would a closer like Perkins still be able to garner a decent return? “There are teams that have gone beyond that, sure” Goin admits. “But I think there are still teams that are going to go out and try to make a trade for a Perkins or [Jonathon] Papelbon or whoever they think they need to get to shore up the back of the bullpen. Some teams are not going to worry about that as much but there still are teams that will say this guy is having a good year, he’s driven in 85 runs through July and we need to get a bat. It may be a function of him being a good hitter and the RBIs are secondary.” With just a week remaining until the trade deadline, the Twins have conducted their due diligence. Goin and company have identified and researched hundreds of potential prospects across the league. The question remains if any teams will be interested enough in any of the currently available players. That, Goin says, may be one of the biggest misconception about the trade deadline. “With media the way it is, internet, Twitter, everything, it gets so much more hype than what actually goes on. You might sit there and no one is calling you back. You may say we’d love to trade. We've got guys or we’d like to trade for your guy and you do not get a call back. They literally do not call back. It’s strange. There is a lot of work that actually goes on to prepare for nothingness.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Parmelee.jpg The Twins made a move today sending starter Cole DeVries down to Rochester and recalling the white-hot hitting Chris Parmelee back to the club. After struggling hardcore at the beginning of the year with the Twins, Parmelee was demoted to AAA and has rediscovered his swing. Interestingly, according to FirstInning.com's data, Parmelee's line drive rate was down to 13% but his zone acumen was significantly better as he walked in 12 of his 58 plate appearances while only coaxing six free passes in 92 plate appearances with the Twins. Overall, the left-handed hitting Parmelee has posted a .375/.500/.708 batting line with four home runs and 12 runs batted in. While less than 60 plate appearances is not a strong sampling - it's the same size which fooled people during spring training - he has certainly made quite the impression in Rochester. Please leave your comments in the forum. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Mauer_Joe_orig.jpg Joe Mauer carries a lot of pressure on his knees, both physically and metaphorically speaking. Some of that is pressure a few of us can relate to, like being a newly married man with a family on the way (twins, no less). Most of it, however, we can’t. Like checking your bank account and seeing a figure which includes multiple commas or getting buzzed by a Chris Sale fastball followed by a slider that seems to bend through space and time. And the scrutiny that follows when you don’t deliver 30-plus home runs a season. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] ~~~ This is a story from a free ebook that TwinsDaily is publishing on Opening Day that previews the Minnesota Twins 2013 season. To get your free copy, just make sure you follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter or Like our Facebook page. ~~~ As the anchor of the lineup, Mauer’s knees carry the weight of the local baseball world. Physically, catching can definitely take a toll on the body, especially the knees, and that can certainly affect a player’s output at the plate. After the 2011 season, then-hitting coach Joe Vavra said in a radio interview that he noticed Mauer had troubles “getting off of his backside and favored his legs a bit” during his swing. To improve, Mauer focused heavily on strengthening his knee after that season and entered the 2012 season better prepared for the rigors of the position, and the numbers speak for themselves. The added offseason attention helped overall but he also demonstrated that he could continue to hit even while catching on a regular basis – a feat some felt was not possible as they plotted a new position for Minnesota’s highest paid athlete. In 2012 his offensive production when adorning the tools of ignorance far exceeded that when he wasn’t squatting in 2012. In 323 plate appearances last year while catching, he put up a triple-slash line of .365/.460/.493 with six of his home runs. The results were significant improved from over his 2011 season in which he hit .239/.328/.324 in the aftermath of his knee surgery. That said the knees may have been a factor behind his defensive decline in ’12. His caught stealing rate plummeted to a career low and the coaching staff attributed this to a mechanical change. “I don’t know if he’s throwing different but I think he’s had some injuries that have changed some of his mechanics,” manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters in camp. “His arm is still there, he’s still got a cannon. I think the tendencies are when you are not able to work on things like that a lot you get a little long with your actions.” One of the biggest questions is how many innings will Mauer play as a catcher. While Mauer has offensive acumen that would play anywhere on the field, having his bat at the catcher’s position greatly enhances his value to the team, allow someone with more traditional power to assume the first base or designated hitter role. Last year, in terms of innings played at the position, he ranked 26th among all backstops. One of the game’s ironmen, the Cardinals’ Yadier Molina, caught multiple games in a row for long stretches of time, maxing out at 12 in September. By comparison, Mauer’s longest streak was three games in 2012. With the addition of Ryan Doumit, it is conceivable that the days of Mauer hooking up the chest protector for more than 900 innings are behind him, but Gardenhire says the amount that Mauer spends behind the plate in 2013 is purely up to his star. With more time to heal and his admitted passion to catch, he could be more inclined to do so this year. The defensive abilities may simply erode with age but Mauer’s hitting will never come under question. If you are expecting a sudden home run outburst, that is probably never going to come to fruition. Because of his hitting style and ballpark that is not conducive to it, his home run totals will probably fall into the 10-to-15 range annually. Still, the on-base percentage and high average should continue so long as he is able to draw a breath. ~~~ You'll get to kick of Opening Day with your free @TwinsDaily Minnesota Twins 2013 Season Preview. Just add us to your Twitter feed by following us, or tell us you like us (we're pathetic like that). We'll publish a link to the free ebook on Opening Day on both sites. http://apps.startrib...ry_id=200551031 Click here to view the article

On Thursday, Ron Gardenhire announced his opening day lineup. Giving it the once over, you will notice that the lineup is filled with “professional” hitters, a stark contrast to the motley crew that the manager was forced to field at the end of last year. Headlining names like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span have returned. It is deep enough that Chris Parmelee, who hit in the heart of the order in September, is batting eighth. With the offseason additions of Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll, there is optimism that this offense will not finish at the bottom of the league in runs scored. Download attachment: baker.jpg Of course, while the offense is providing some warm fuzzies, it’s the pitching staff that is the real concern. And it’s already off to an ominous start.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Scott Baker, in efforts to rehab an arm issue he experienced this spring, made a start for the Ft Myers Miracle yesterday. It did not go well. Just 11 pitches into the outing, he was pulled, stating he was unable to get loose. The News-Press’s David Dorsey tweeted that Miracle manager Jake Mauer said “the radar guns were 80 to 84 or whatever the heck it was. He wasn’t comfortable at all.” There is no clarity as to what is actually wrong with Baker, either. Earlier in the day, general manager Terry Ryan was on KFAN with Dan Barreiro and said, of Baker, “the only concern I have is that he’s not injured. There’s nothing wrong; we’ve done all the test and so forth.” Baker’s situation is starting to sound somewhat similar to Glen Perkins’ plight in 2010. That season, Perkins complained about shoulder pain which sidelined him for an extended period of time and drew the ire of Twins officials who were “privately questioning his pain tolerance and willingness to compete.” As we know, Perkins rebounded swimmingly, assuming the set-up man’s position in the bullpen and earning himself a three-year deal after a terrific 2011 season. Baker, meanwhile, has now had multiple seasons now end with arm issues and this one, much like Perkins in 2010, does not have a clear diagnosis. Is he now receiving the Perkins treatment from the team’s inner circle? In August of last year, Baker headed for the disabled list, saying that he noticed a “lack of velocity and less sharpness in his breaking pitches.” Back then he was still hitting the upper-80s despite the discomfort. This spring, the radar gun has said he has been at 86 miles per hour and below. As someone who lives up in the zone and allows a high percentage of fly balls, the drop in velocity would be fuel to the fire. It’s frustrating, as Ryan told Barreiro, because despite throwing just over 130 innings last year, Baker was undoubtedly the rotation’s lone bright spot through the first half of the season. He was a breath of fresh air as a strikeout pitcher (whiffing 22.5% of batters faced) in a sea of contact artists (Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn) and zone avoiders (Francisco Liriano). Now it appears there is no timeline in which Baker will recover in the near future. His absence will also further highlight the Twins lack of depth in the system when it comes to the starting rotation. Liam Hendriks, who pitched decently in September, will assume his spot however, if any other injuries crop up, there is little left in the farm system to replace them. There are no Matt Garzas, Kevin Sloweys or Francisco Lirianos waiting in the wings. And what of the bullpen? A year ago, the reinforcements blew 20 save opportunities and were responsible for 28 losses (the most in the American League) while allowing 4.96 runs per game (the second most in the AL). Have the Twins improved themselves in this area? Matt Capps’ spring - following up a tumultuous 2011 season - has not reassured fans much that he’s turned things around. Likewise, the one pitcher who may have added a dominating force to last year’s group, Joel Zumaya, lasted 13 spring pitches. The Twins have also lost Joe Nathan and have not replaced him with a similar right-handed reliever. This doesn’t inspire much confidence, does it? Well, you are not alone in that sentiment. Ryan was also equally as uncertain by the unit he put together. “The biggest question is the bullpen,” said Ryan Thursday afternoon over the airwaves. “The bullpen has a bunch of question marks…I’m worried about the bullpen just like you are.” At the very least, the honesty is refreshing. It’s not like the front office is trying to feed us a spoon full of sugar to help the medicine go do. The reality is this pitching staff may very well leave a bitter taste. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Hicks.jpg Leading baseball in strikeouts probably is not what Aaron Hicks had in mind when he daydreamed about his first week in the major leagues. He probably has visions of scorching liners into the right-center gap or sending a shot into the overhang in right field. He pictured himself[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] dancing off of first and swindling second with blaze of dust behind him. Instead, he has made so little contact at the plate that his bat is going through separation anxiety. How has it started this poorly for Hicks and how can he turn it around? The first key to improvement is avoiding falling behind in the count so frequently. Perhaps pitchers in the Eastern League would tip-toe around the strike zone but major league pitchers have come right at Hicks. With a reputation for being borderline overly patient, opponents have poured in first-pitch strikes and put the center fielder behind in the count 76% of his plate appearance thus far in his young career. By comparison, the rest of the league’s hitter’s have been ahead in the count more often than not, as pitchers have gained a first-pitch strike edge just 48% of the time on average. Overall, Hicks has not given opponents much reason to avoid pumping strikes, either. While he has swung 11 times on the initial pitch of his at-bats, he’s put the ball in play just twice (one of his two hits, no less). This may evoke comparisons to Joe Mauer’s laissez-faire attitude towards first pitches but even this season in which the catcher has had an unusually high strikeout rate, pitchers have fallen behind him too (45% first-pitch strike rate). While he does not swing often, Mauer does have a .422 career average when swinging on the first pitch, providing pitchers consideration for not living inside the zone. Hicks, however, has built no such reputation. The second key for Hicks to rebound is improving his pitch recognition – specifically the breaking balls. Once he falls behind in the count, teams have twisted and turned the ball at him. In counts when behind (0-1, 0-2 and 1-2), Hicks has seen 17 fastballs compared to 26 non-fastballs (curves, sliders and change-ups). According to Pitchf/x data, Hicks has seen 46 non-fastballs from right-handed pitchers. He’s offered at 18 of those pitches. Of those 18 swings, he’s made contact just seven times. His early season lack of contact is one reason – besides falling behind in the count – which he has struck out in 16 of his 37 trips to the plate. In his second inning at-bat against Kansas City’s Wade Davis on Wednesday night, the pitch sequencing used has become a common theme for Hicks – dominating the strike zone airspace early in the count and then dropping the hammer with two-strikes. First pitch: Fastball, strike looking. Second pitch: Fastball, strike looking. Third pitch: Cutter, ball. Fourth pitch: Fastball, foul. Fifth pitch: Curve, swinging strike. Strike three. Goodnight Gracie. Take a look at the concluding pitch: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1365745119_HicksvDavis.gif Now this pitch had very little chance of being put into play but what you see in these clips is what Hicks has been doing all season on breaking and off-speed pitches. His front side opens up and then his back side drops, effectively eliminating any chance of making decent contact. All of this happens because he over-commits to the pitch. The way he swings at these grossly unhittable pitches, it is clear that he is having troubles deciphering breaking balls from fastballs. On a basic level, hitters know that breaking balls and other various swing-and-miss type pitches are coming once a pitcher gets ahead in the count. The trick is recognizing the spin. And that part simply comes with comfort and repetition. This is not an uncommon struggle for younger ballplayers. In a recent interview, Mets hitting coach Dave Hudgens addressed outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis’s similar curve ball problem and his advice is very applicable to Hicks as well: “The key is laying off those pitches you should be lay off, and that comes down to pitch recognition. When you start struggling a little bit, guys start chasing hits, and chasing results. Whenever you start doing that, you start a little bit earlier. … I try to teach the guys, if you see spin down — knee high or thigh high — if it’s spinning, you have to discipline yourself. But when you’re hunting hits, it’s very difficult to do. That’s how it snow balled with Nieuwenhuis a little bit. He couldn’t calm himself down and he wanted to hit so bad, he was committing himself early and not recognizing those pitches. My suggestion to [the hitters] is early in the count, we’re tracking pitches. Right now, we’re going down and watching our pitchers on the side and watching that spin. Then when the games begin, hunt fastballs. [He] can hit breaking balls, but it has to be a breaking ball that’s up.” It is early in the year and management knows that he has plenty of time to turn things around. Still, if this continues for a prolonged period of time, Hicks may have to recalibrate in Rochester. http://apps.startrib...ry_id=202645181 Click here to view the article

Download attachment: minnesota-twins-catcher-joe-mauer.jpg One of the more notable batted ball tendencies out of Joe Mauer’s 2012 season is that for the first time in his career, he actually pulled the ball more often than he went the other way. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This happened very quietly, perhaps because he still managed to spray the entire field with hits and, admittedly, it was not as if he was launching majestic shots onto the plaza with this new found tendency to make anyone take notice. Rather, the Twins backstop/first baseman/designated hitter drove the ball into the ground at the same alarming rate he had for the majority of his career. Only this time, they found real estate at a higher clip than his norm. With the league’s second-highest ground ball rate when pulling – an unsightly 85.1% ground ball rate – it is hard to believe that so many of those scooted past first and second basemen in 2012. Nevertheless, when he did yank the pitch, he had a ball in play average of .285 – his highest success rate aside from his ’07 mark of .295 produced thanks, in part, to the ground ball-accelerating carpeting of the Metrodome. While this could be a statistical anomaly or simply batted ball luck, digging deeper, it appears that there may be some intelligent design behind this method. The first thing to consider is that Mauer’s pull tendencies do not reflect any changes made in response to changes in the oppositions’ approach, on the contrary, they kept the ball down-and-away at a high frequency. However, when they did go down-and-in or on his belt off of the plate, Mauer opened up more readily on those pitches. Here, his batting average on balls in play chart in 2012, provided by BaseballProspectus.com, shows how well he was at handling pitches down and in: https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/MLcASzn-hC8H5BXWnvLh1-M0fKeBzq9vflPdtkSmWiflLiTax8WTN3oIcf9TW6uOgJLoqQeriiIoetP53XXuNaX21MZ6QxWKKYo0P4lFuT7S-25OW7Q Particularly interesting is Mauer’s aggressive tendencies with pitches that were in off of the plate. Although he does inside-out plenty of pitches on the inner half, the further they are off the plate, the more likely it is that a hitter must open up and attack the pitch out in front. This translates into a higher percentage of hits to the right-side of the field for left-handed hitters. Now, situationally, next to the Yankees’ Robinson Cano (166) Mauer was at the plate for the most appearances in double-play situations. Of his 641 times at bat, 148 of those were with a runner on first with less than two outs. For those who recall booing him lustily this year, you probably remember that Mauer bounced into 23 double-plays -- an unfortunate byproduct of having ground ball tendencies when pulling. The other side of that coin is that in terms of defensive positioning, this gives the left-handed Mauer a bigger infield hole on that right side and a decisive advantage. In practice, when a left-handed hitter is up, the shortstop will cover second base on a stolen base attempt and allow the second baseman to cheat towards first base while staying the vicinity of the base in the event of a double play ball. In Mauer’s case, his career-long tendency of hitting the ball back up-the-middle has enticed defensive alignments to squeeze him up the middle rather than have the second baseman shade towards his left. Below is an example of this configuration that Mauer faced often. In this instance, the Phillies were up by three and the Twins had runners on the corners with no outs. With the lead, Philadelphia chose to play the middle infield at double play depth, bringing the second baseman in and towards the bag. The first baseman held the runner. This created ample room for a well hit grounder to skip through the right side. And, as such, the Phillies’ left-handed reliever, Antonio Bastardo delivered a pitch on the inner half of the plate and Mauer re-directed it to that vacant space. Download attachment: Mauer_Right3.jpg Even taking it a step further and simply having a runner on first is very advantageous for Mauer, regardless if the double play is in order. Download attachment: Mauer_Right2.jpg In similar example of Mauer profiting from having a runner on first, in this game against the Indians, the Twins were leading by four in the fourth. Once again, the runners were on the corners. Not wanting to put another runner in scoring position, the Indians held Revere at the bag. Gambling on Mauer’s tendency to use the middle of the field, Indians’ second baseman Jason Kipnis was playing back (which would help cover more ground) but squeezing towards short. Comparatively, when teams do not have to defend against base runner, they were able to play Mauer straight-up in the infield (perhaps cheating their middle infielders towards the center of the diamond). In this case, the Brewers’ second baseman Rickie Weeks is able to play back and first baseman Corey Hart is able to do the same, increasing the defensive coverage and reducing the BABIP odds on grounders to the right side of the field. Download attachment: Mauer_Middle2.jpg Without a runners on base, Mauer’s average on balls in play has been lower over his career and is 34 points lower than when he has at least a runner on first with less than two outs. This past year his ball in play average was 83 points lower (.333) with no one on versus with a runner on first, less than two outs situation (.416). Theoretically, some of that has to do with his success at directional hitting when given sizable targets in which to aim. Based on his altered batted ball tendencies and the results, it is not far fetched to say that Joe Mauer is using his unequaled bat control to garner a few more hits in those circumstances. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: CleteThomas.jpg What Clete Thomas experienced last year at the major league level was the opposition's complete ownership of the airspace in and around the strike zone. He was, as the internet kids say, pwned. In 29 plate appearances in 2012, he struck out 16 times and did not draw a walk. What the data tells us, but does not need to, is that in this small sampling Thomas was a complete free-swinger. Not only that, he was chasing after anything that moved in the general vicinity of the stadium. This resulted in a quick and much needed demotion to Rochester. The whiffing did not stop while playing in The Flower City (Author’s note: it’s a thing, look it up) either. He was thrown a chair a whopping 109 times in 426 plate appearances. After parting ways briefly in November, the Twins re-enlisted Thomas in December for organizational outfield depth. He was told to tone down his swing and improve his contact. The idea of retooling a player's swing or pitching mechanics fascinates me – particularly for guys on the fringe. You know that thing you have complete muscle memory for and are comfortable with? Change it. If it doesn't work? Oh well, you may be out of baseball. Pat on the butt and best of luck. Plenty of struggling players are asked to rework this or tinker with that and the vast majority of them seem to stay at or near the level of production they had before the overhaul. That said, there are a few notable players who have turned their careers around by changing things up, like Roy Halladay or Jose Bautista. But players like these are the exceptions, not the rule. Locally, Twins hitter Trevor Plouffe made improvements to his swing and that turned into one of the most potent 30-day power binges this state has ever seen. Although the third baseman has had trouble at third and staying healthy, he has shown an ability to drive the ball better since his re-education. On the other hand, players like Delmon Young and Luke Hughes also made some adjustments that helped fuel brief hot stretches but never really made much long term progress. On the recent FSN broadcasts, Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven lauded Thomas’s work to improve his contact rates; this effort helped him produce a fantastic start with Rochester this year. True, Thomas’ strikeout rate stayed the same but it was not due to wild swinging. The edict to change not only incited alterations in Thomas’ mental approach (i.e. plate discipline, pitch selection) but also in his mechanics to ensure a greater rate of contact. He improved his walk rate from 6% to 12% and with that came an increase in strikeouts looking. When he put the bat on the ball, it packed some punch. He raised his slugging percentage from .405 to .576 thanks to nine home runs in 36 games, after hitting 12 in 109 last year. Thomas’s changes started with the set. In 2012 (right) he stood more upright, holding his hands higher and keeping his front foot opened. Comparatively, this year, Thomas has brought the front leg inward, lowered his hand level and has a more compacted stance. Download attachment: Clete.jpg The side-by-side differences are evident but how did they affect his swing? http://i.imgur.com/MU0bepq.gif Thomas has had a long, looping swing that generated some power but far more empty swings – as evidence by his 23% strikeout rate in the minors and a 25% rate in the majors. With an opened and upright stance, Thomas exhibited a sizable load with his hands prior to bringing the bat through the zone. During his swing, his head would change planes, likely causing some hand-eye issues and resulting in the hefty in-zone swinging strike rates. Though many hitters have open-stances like pre-2013 Thomas had, those players typically have a toe-tap or other timing mechanism (not unlike former Twin Jason Kubel) to keep their weight back and evenly distributed. In Thomas’ case, the front side is all drifting away from the plate leaving him susceptible to pitches away. http://i.imgur.com/Wrl1O56.gif?1 The most noticeable change in how muted his hand-load is this: instead of drawing his hands as far back as he did in 2012, he has a smaller loading point which quickens his hands and bat through the zone. With bat speed being one key to power, this alteration is part of the reason for the increase in power. Second, with the compacted stance, his head does not change planes as much which leads to better vision. If a hitter’s eye level is changed during the swing he will have additional difficulty squaring up on the ball. Last, with the more closed stance, his weight stays centered at the middle of the hitter's field rather than pulling open, giving him better plate coverage. Dating back to his tenure with the Detroit Tigers and their minor league organization, Thomas always had high levels of whiffability but also displayed enough power and speed to continue being considered a fourth outfielder candidate stashed away in Triple-A. However, once at the major league level, pitchers would exploit his deficiencies and render him fairly useless at the plate. The work ethic shown in being able to revamp his approach and swing has made him a useful component to the Twins. His stay with the Twins may be short-lived once Aaron Hicks proves ready to return; nevertheless, give Thomas credit for being willing and able to make enough adjustments in his approach and mechanics to have given himself value to the Twins . Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Maer.jpg Catcher framing is extremely popular in baseball research circles right now. Go over to Fangraphs.com or BaseballProspectus.com and you will find several studies and articles on the subject. It’s Hansel hot right now. While we can determine which catchers are better at getting more out-of-zone pitches called strikes than others, we still do not have a full grasp on what it means to a team’s bottom line.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In some ways, it feels like a butterfly effect. If a catcher is unable to get a borderline pitch for a punchout strike, it could mean an addition pitch for the pitcher which could mean a base hit which means another at bat which means an additional four or five pitches which runs up the pitch count and could mean going to the bullpen in the fifth rather than the sixth or seventh. One of the more recent studies on Baseball Prospectus found that Joe Mauer’s ability to coax the low strike. As Ben Lindbergh’s data shows, Mauer’s 19.5% strike rate low in the zone is well-below the average for catchers –in fact, 41.3% below average. By comparison, Milwaukee’s Jonathon Lucroy has excelled at getting this pitched called. His strike rate in the low portion is 77.1% (or 66.1% above average). (On the other hand, because of his tall statute, Mauer has been much better at getting high strikes versus the smaller framed Lucroy. Much, MUCH better. According to Lindbergh’s figures, Mauer is 86.3% better than the average at coercing the high strike.) Lindbergh provides a .gif that visually shows the difference between the two catchers’ called strike zones, not the bottom dark dots on Mauer’s chart that represent called balls: Download attachment: LucroyMauer (2).gif As a real-life example, in Tuesday night’s game against the Angels, with Anthony Swarzak cruising through his first inning of work, retiring Howie Kendrick and Chris Iannetta on seven pitches. He was in the middle of doing the same to Angels’ third baseman, Luis Jimenez, up 0-2 and twirled off this exquisite curveball: Here’s a thought: How does Mauer’s inability to get low strikes effect what is predominately a sinker ball rotation? In years past, Mauer’s height and tendency to get high strikes called would have played well for pitchers like Scott Baker who work mainly up in the zone with their fastballs. But with Vance Worley and Mike Pelfrey toeing the rubber, their arsenal is more reliant on getting borderline pitches called strikes in order to get strike three. So far, both pitchers are well-below their career strikeout norms. Obviously, plenty the blame needs to be assigned to the pitcher, but how much influence does Mauer’s handling have? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: span1.jpg Heading into the 2012 season, the Twins had plenty of question marks throughout the lineup. Among those unanswered questions was center fielder Denard Span. The concern was Span, like Justin Morneau to a lesser extent, would be unable to play consistently throughout the season at a high level. After all, Span’s concussion in the middle of the 2011 season sidelined him for an extended period of time and, when he returned for 14 games in August and September, he provided minimal production, going 7-for-53 (.132) with 10 strikeouts to three walks. Nevertheless, the Twins’ leadoff hitter has had a fast start to the season, setting the tables like never before. In addition to an impressive batting average (.333) and a decent amount of extra base hits (7), he’s reaching base at a very good .373 clip which gives the heart of the order someone to attempt to drive home. What makes Span such a valuable asset at the top of the Twins’ order is his outstanding plate discipline. For starters, he rarely expands the strike zone, instead shows off an amazing amount of restraint. According to Fangraphs.com’s Plate Discipline statistics, Span has chased after just 19.6% of all out-of-zone pitches which is well below the 28.9% league average. By not offering at out-of-zone pitches, Span is confident that he is putting mostly in-zone pitches into play. These types of choice pitches are often within a hitter’s swing zone and result in more square contact. Because of this, it is not surprising to see that Span has maintained his second highest line drive output (23%) since his first season with the Twins. What’s more is that his 10% fly ball rate is the lowest in baseball at this juncture and he has yet to hit an infield fly ball. These are all signs of a hitter who is seeing the ball extremely well and putting the ball into play extremely well. Part of what is driving his success this year is his ability to go the other way rather than pulling the ball. There’s no question that he is a rare offensive specimen is his quick wrists and patience. He can wait until the pitch is almost in the catcher’s mitt only to flick his wrists and send a screaming line drive somewhere on the left side of the field. However, when Span becomes too pull happy, he winds up turning over those quick wrists and grounding out (he has a 73% ground ball rate when pulling the ball) a trait we saw far too often in his 2010 campaign. However, there are signs that Span, now a veteran with four major league seasons under his belt, is adapting and making changes to his approach for the better. NOTE: For whatever reason, TwinsDaily.com does not seem to have .gif capabilities. Please visit the post at the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric page to see the video clips. Compare his 2011 approach to the two clips below from 2012. In 2011, although he is going to opposite field with the pitch, he is doing so more with his upper body rather than with his legs and hips: Download attachment: DSpan_2011_1.jpg Meanwhile, in 2012, watch his back leg as he draws it back towards the first base side, directing his hips towards the left side of the field: Download attachment: DSpan_2012_1.jpg Download attachment: DSpan_2012_2.jpg Pitchers have stared the 2012 season by peppering the outer half of the zone to Span. To his credit, he has succeeded by giving what they pitch him and driving the ball towards left. This is why 39% of the balls he puts into play wind up headed towards the opposite field, well above his career rate of 28%. Soon enough, however, teams will likely adjust their approach to Span and attempt to bust him inside more often in attempts to keep him from focusing on going away with every pitch. The Royals, while their pitching staff is struggling worse than the Twins, have moved towards using video scouting more often than in-person scouting. If the Royals advanced video scouts have picked up on this, they may implement a game plan this weekend that will result in Span being pitched inside more frequently. Watch for Span to continue to go away with pitches out over the plate but keep in mind Kansas City will likely attempt to shut him down by busting him inside. Click here to view the article

Just two seasons into Target Field’s existence and already the ballpark’s environment had drawn as much consternation from hitters as an expanded strike zone or moving the mound ten feet closer to the plate. Departing Twins took shots at the venue as they left the team, suggesting that the way the field plays makes players alter their swings to avoid long fly outs to the gaps. Rather than continuing to jam square pegs into a round hole, the Twins made an offseason signing that is proving early on that if you select the right talent, Target Field can be porous. With a sampling of two seasons, the home run chart at Target Field showed that the easiest way to leave the field of play was to yank one down the left field line - and that’s where Josh Willingham comes in. Because of his high pull tendencies and Target Field’s favorable environment to right-handed pull hitters, this winter’s acquisition had all the signs that it could be successful. Just three games into the first homestand of the year, Willingham has reminded fans why the team named the third deck section of left field the “Home Run Porch” by pulverizing the Rawlings deep into the stands and narrowly missing a fourth by several feet on Monday. In concert with Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, both of whom homered on Thursday, the Twins now have five home runs at home. That is downright a derby contest compared to last season in which fans had to wait until the twelfth home game of the season to be treated to the fifth Twins home run. Let’s take a closer look as to why Willingham has been such a solid power source. As I wrote back in December, what makes him such a dangerous hitter is that he “draws his power from a stiff front leg which helps with leverage and keeps his hands inside as his back arm stays close to his body at a little over a 90 degree angle – otherwise known as the “Power L” position. This combination, plus his natural strength, has led to a home run every 18.6 at bats since 2009.” Here is an example of this in his home run off of Jared Weaver on Wednesday night. What I failed to mention back then is the explosive hip action he has when he uncorks. Take note of the stiff front leg and the way his trailing arm stays tucked in. Notice, also, that the point of impact is well out in front of his body resulting in him pulling the ball: Download attachment: Willingham_outfront2.jpg Next is an almost identical position for his home run off of Kevin Jepsen. Observe the same front leg, arm tucked in and the impact made out in front of his body: Download attachment: Willingham_outfront.jpg Because of this approach, Willingham has had great success when being pitched middle-in: Download attachment: Willingham_hit zone.jpg Due to his early season success, one has to believe that the Rangers advanced scouts are filing reports that say “PITCH HIM AWAY! AWAY! AWAY!” in big bold letters and underlined. After all, Texas can neutralize him in this weekend’s series by forcing him to use the large part of the park rather than directing the ball towards the porch in left. It is impossible to think that his pace will continue throughout the season, but pitchers do make mistakes – like Jepsen did when he tried to hit the outer-half the zone on Thursday only to have it stay over the middle – and Willingham appears to be a hitter who takes advantage of such mistakes. While this season still needs to play out, as of right now, it appears that the Twins front office has made one home run of a signing. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Hammer.jpg Who knows why Josh Willingham left first base with the intention of stealing second base on April 27th, 2013. Coaches claim the thievery was not planned. It’s possible that with the left-handed Michael Kirkman on the mound, Willingham was fooled by his delivery or was caught leaning when the Ranger threw over to first. Either way, with his team up 4-0 -- thanks in part to his two-run home run two innings prior -- Willingham broke for second, took the base but aggravated his knee in the process. All for what? The knee, which he had injured in 2010 while with the Nationals, gave Willingham troubles the rest of last year. For the remainder of the season, the man who had punished pitching and made people think the concrete had finally settled at Target Field in 2012 hit a Punto-nian .200/.332/.336 over nearly 400 plate appearances. With the left knee out of commission -- the right-handed slugger’s front knee which absorbs the impact in his stride and weight transfer and twists violently when he is opening up his hips to turn on the ball -- Willingham’s power drained significantly. He hit just 14 home runs compared to the 35 he had in 2012. His standard fly ball distance dropped from 279 feet to 265 feet on average. Whether or not directly related to the knee injury, what gave Willingham the most trouble was doing anything with pitches on the outer-half of the strike zone. In 2012 he hit .217/.337/.422 with 22 extra base hits including 11 home runs on pitches on the outer-third of the plate. This past year he managed to produce just a .170/.296/.224 batting line that included nine extra base hits (all doubles). The heat maps and spray charts from ESPN’s Stats & Info Department show how much better Willingham was at hitting those pitches for power and driving the ball for distance. In 2012 his average fly ball distance on those pitches was 296 feet. Last year the average distance dropped to 255 feet. 2012 http://twinsdaily.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=6426&stc=1 2013 http://twinsdaily.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=6427&stc=1 Based on the heat map of his slugging percentage (left) it is clear Willingham thrived when being able to extend his hands on pitches up and out over the plate to drive the ball. In 2013, he was unable to get the desired results on the same pitches as he did in 2012. Interestingly enough, his contact rates in that location in these two seasons are very comparable but the production simply dropped off. It is indeed likely the knee was the catalyst for the plate coverage power drop-off, when we see that in both 2011 and 2009 he hit six home runs on the outer-half of the plate but in 2010, when he injured his knee and required surgery on his meniscus, he had just one home run and very little power (.277 slugging). The takeaway is that once healthy in 2011, Willingham’s power rebounded nicely (29 home runs, .477 slugging percentage overall). If healthy in 2014, the Twins should expect the home run power to return. All graphs and data provided by ESPN Stats & Info. Click here to view the article

For the 9-to-5ers in Twins Territory, those who did not attend the game should consider themselves lucky they stayed in the office rather than witness Nick Blackburn’s last start on Wednesday afternoon. For the second consecutive start, Blackburn was punished across the field, allowing another pair of home runs to Chicago’s Adam Dunn and Alex Rios. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The one-time groundball-getter has failed to induce the batted ball types that earned him that label. In those two starts, he managed to get 12 grounders to 26 fly balls – hardly the worm-burning ratio. At a point when the Twins are in desperate need of a starter to just throw consistent innings Blackburn, the guy they paid millions to supply just that, has been unable to fulfill their needs. Is there any hope of Blackburn turning things around or is he simply a casualty waiting to happen? In March 2010, the Twins made the decision to sign Blackburn to a four-year deal -- in spite of coming off a season in which he led the league in hits allowed (240) -- effectively buying out his arbitration years and a year of free agency for $14 million. Not long after that Rob Antony, the team’s assistant general manager, explained the logic behind locking in Blackburn saying that the organization believed he was capable of providing the team with more than his nearly 400 innings (399.0 to be exact), 22-22 record and 4.04 ERA which he had already put up in 2008 and 2009. “You start putting down the numbers and all the comps that he has and you base it off of if he just does what he has done,” Antony said. “You don’t project that he is getting better – although we believe there is more in there. Instead of being an 11-11 guy, we believe he could easily be a 15-9 guy.” Had he simply sustained his previous production, Blackburn would have been a huge bargain for the Twins. In his first two seasons, Fangraphs.com’s value metric said that he was worth $24.8 million mostly based on working 200 innings. Of course, he would not be able to maintain that level of output. Injuries and general ineffectiveness has made it look like he hornswoggled the team out of millions. Over the past three seasons, Fangraphs.com’s value metric has said he has been only worth $2.4 million while the Twins have paid him $8.25 million in actual money. Blackburn has always been a pitcher who seems to work in a delicately balanced universe. As a high contact groundballer with the propensity to give up long home runs, he requires sterling defense behind him and laser-sharp command to guide him through his starts. If one of those items falls out of equilibrium, the levee breaks. To his credit, Blackburn seems very cognizant of his abilities and his reliance on his mechanics to help the movement in his sinker. This spring, Blackburn headed into camp talking about changes he had made to him mechanics and approach. The first was shifting to the middle of the pitching rubber away from the first base side he had lived at for most of his career. This, he said, would give added deception. The second change was getting to a more “over-the-top” release point to alleviate stress on his arm. In considering his season thus far, clearly neither addition has been the answer. While pitchers are always adapting, Blackburn’s latest mechanics seem further and further away from his successful 2009 season which landed him his large payday. Take a look at his 2009 version compared to his current one: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1340946905_Blackburn_OAK09.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_CIN12.gif If you are looking for it, you will notice several differences but the most critical difference is in his leg stride. Notice in his 2009 model that he gets his front leg up higher and instead of bringing it back down immediately, he stretches it further out towards home. There is a brief hesitation as he gets to the peak of his leg lift before bringing his leg forward. As that is happening, his weight stays back extremely well. Meanwhile, his current mechanics involve bringing the front leg down and then drifting it forward rather than stretching it as he did in 2009. Compare the two motions at the point in which he is beginning to move his front leg forward. Here you can see how much more he elevations his front leg in 2009 and how the 2012 version is taking more of a swinging path towards home. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_tpost2009-OAK.jpg http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_tpost2012-CIN.jpg Pitch F/X data details a significantly different story in the path of his sinker (classified as a two-seamer) from 2009 and 2012. In 2009, while lining up on the first base side of the rubber, Blackburn’s sinker most often was thrown on the black of the plate (in on righties, away from lefties). This, more or less, is an ideal spot for that pitch. Notice in the overhead below that the pitch has some pitcher’s glove side run to it as well. This season, with the relocation to the middle of the slab, the sinker is thrown smack dab in the center of the plate and, unlike the 2009 version, does not have much run if any. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_Overhead.jpg From the strike zone view, you will see how the 2009 sinker ran in on the hands of right-handed hitters and away from the left-handed hitters’ swings. This season a solid majority of his offerings have been within the zone, giving hitters something they can square up on: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_Zone.jpg In short, in 2009 he stayed back well and was able to get outstanding movement and location. In 2012, he is rushing a bit towards home which creates a timing issue and has less movement on the sinker. As has been discussed at length at Twins Daily’s forum, Blackburn is currently a sunk cost to the Twins. He now has thrown several stinkers in a row without any signs of improving. The general attitude among the community appears to be to cut him loose and give those innings to another pitcher. Unfortunately, the team is on the hook again for $5.5 million next year and, with the current state of the rotation, the Twins could certainly use the 2009 version of Blackburn again. There are probably some very good reasons behind Blackburn’s mechanical changes since 2009. However, given his struggles, I would submit that it cannot hurt to attempt to return to the motion he was using back when the front office invested $14 million in him and his power sinker. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Florimon.jpg When the Twins front office begins to renovate this mess of a house in the winter, at the top of the list the highest priority has to be fixing the starting rotation. It is the home’s crumbling foundation and that needs the most attention. Afterwards, item number two could be repairing the all-important middle infield position. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Offensively, over the past two seasons the Twins shortstops have hit a combined .241/.303/.326. It was this kind of hitting that had forced the 2009 team into acquiring Orlando Cabrera and the 2010 team to land JJ Hardy. In terms of OPS, just three other American League teams have extracted less production out of the position since the end of the 2010 season: the Mariners, Rays and Athletics. The difference is, while those teams’ shortstops struggled at the dish, they were all good with the glove providing them with some value. What’s more is that two of those three teams either changed direction or will likely change in the near future. In the past two seasons, outside of a geriatric doctor in Sarasota performing physicals, nobody in this country picked up more balls than Seattle’s Brendan Ryan, so it is easy to exchange offense for his defense. Meanwhile, Elliot Johnson in Tampa has been solid, doing more on defense in 2010 over 2011, but he will likely give way to one of the two defensive stalwarts in Tim Beckham or Hak-Ju Lee in the coming future. Over in Oakland, Chad Pennington has been average in the field however his lack of offense encouraged the A’s to grab the equally struggling Stephen Drew, who has yet to rebound after leaving the hitting-haven of Arizona’s Chase Field. In theory, the Twins thought they were getting a strong defensive player in Tsuyoshi Nishioka but realized that the bar for a Gold Glove in Japan was apparently set ridiculously low. For their part, recognizing the lack of depth at the upper levels, the Twins have nabbed a few additional shortstops including Pedro Florimon and Eduardo Escobar to go with the in-house Brian Dozier. Florimon, who has been up with the team for all of 19 games, comes equipped with plenty of range but an error-prone resume. We’ve seen some slick fielding plays thanks to his speed. Consider with a grain of salt based on the sample size yet according to Baseball Info Solution’s data in 158.1 innings he has made 11 out-of-zone plays at short. Compare that to Jamey Carroll - who had 150 more innings than him at short – and made just 18 out-of-zone plays. However, he’s been unable to make the plays within the standard zone. He’s had 42 balls hit into his zone and made just 27 plays (.643 revised zone rating). While Carroll could not touch Florimon’s speed, Carroll compensated by making the vast majority of plays that were hit near him (85 of 105 for a .810 revised zone rating). And although he has turned a corner and has made just 16 errors so far this year, the fewest E’s the 25-year-old shortstop has commitment was 21 in the low-A Sally League. If he does not find a way to harness all of his physical talent and smooth out his glove work, his minor league track record suggests he will not contribute much offensively judging by his .249/.321/.354 batting line in just under 3,000 plate appearances. Escobar has proven to be a much more sure-handed individual over his development but does not necessarily project as a starting shortstop – more likely a second baseman or utility infielder. Even though the White Sox used him at third base, there is nothing in his minor league batting line of .267/.312/.348 that would be indicative of someone capable of hitting like a third baseman. Before they decided against recalling him in September, the accept belief was that Brian Dozier would be the frontrunner for the position in 2013 among all the internal options. For most of the year Dozier played decisively average defense. Compared to the rest of the league’s starting shortstops according to BIS, he made a less than average amount of plays in a shortstop’s zone. Some of that was blamed on lack of awareness of his competition. Upon his demotion, Ron Gardenhire questioned some of his positioning that allowed speedier guys like Cleveland’s Jason Kipnis and Kansas City’s Jarrod Dyson to reach on grounders. Improving his defense would require preparation and ability to position in the field to handle those types of situations. Then again, there are plenty of baseball minds who have believed Dozier to be more of a second baseman than a shortstop. And, offensively, he degraded into a Danny Valencia-like mess at the plate, chasing sliders out of the zone and putting a very high amount of those kinds of pitches in play (74% out of zone contact). To be sure, the gaggle of shortstops has improved the defense a smidge over the 2011 group. Last year the team had a .268 batting average on ground balls in play, well above the league average of .240. This year, that number has dropped to .258. Still on the high-side but an increase of grounders converted to outs, nonetheless. Based on what we know today, it would seem that none of these three players are close to becoming fixtures in the middle infield. They certainly all have skills and plenty of upside, although it is hard to envision a team interested in competing for a division title next year to roll forward with any of these three at the vital position. The point is, when the Twins brass sits down when the season ends on October 3, they should think critically about their plans for shortstop next year. Any one of these players may be able to get a team through a season and it is possible that one of these existing candidates figures things out either defensively or offensively. On the other hand, based on their prior experience, it is more likely that they do not and will leave the organization, once again, hunting for an answer at shortstop. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Josmil.jpg With Joe Mauer’s season cut short due to brain trauma, now more than ever there is discussion of moving the franchise player out from behind the plate to a “safer” position in the infield. TwinsDaily.com’s Nick Nelsonshared his thoughts and explained in detail why the move makes sense for 2014. The crux of Nelson’s argument is to protect the team’s best offensive player from missing extended time from additional concussions that have been plaguing backstops this year. What makes this transition easier to accept has been the emergence of catcher Josmil Pinto, whose September performance has been tantalizing to say the least. One aspect of his game that has been impressive is his ability to use the entire field -- particularly driving the ball the other way in big situations. On Monday night, he shot a game-winning, walk-off single into right field. On Thursday, he drove a Chris Perez offering into the seats in the overhang in right to bring the Twins within one run of the Indians. Following the extra inning win against Detroit, manager Ron Gardenhire raved about Pinto’s short swing which allows him to wait back on off-speed pitches as well as keep us with the league’s harder throwers. “He got himself in a little bit of a hole, but he took a nice, short swing, didn't try to do too much with it and shot it the other way,” Gardenhire told reporters this week. “That's kind of ahead of your time. You don't see many young hitters being able to do those things. He's been able to do that stuff. It's been fun to watch.” Pinto is not quite at the Joe Mauer level when it comes to exploiting the opposite field but his tendencies to go that direction demonstrate a hitter with great plate coverage and comprehension of what he should do with a pitch. In some cases, young hitters tend to become too pull heavy and are often overmatched when pitchers begin to pitch away. In discussing Chris Colabello’s opposite field leaning, Twins general manager noted that many hitting instructors value a young player’s ability to go the other way since it is a skill that is difficult to master once a hitter is set in their ways. A source for Pinto’s pop has been the strong lower-half drive created by his pronounced leg kick. This action has been often cited as a reason why some hitters will struggle. The idea is that they have a tendency to move their weight forward early and can be fooled by offspeed stuff. So far, Pinto has not shown this weakness. Speaking to his evolution as a hitter, Pinto had showcased a more significant kick during his 2012 season with the New Britain Rock Cats. Here we see that he brought the apex of his kick almost to his waist. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1380305322_Pinto_Minors.gif Since then, Pinto has muted that movement somewhat and is not raising his front leg as high. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1380305231_Pinto_MLB.gif This may have been a change instilled by a coach, instructor or possibly Pinto himself as he ascended the minor league chain and competition grew stronger and better equipped to dismantle a hitter. Either way, so far into his career, it has been working well for him. The question is, will it be something opponents can exploit? Locally, we know Kirby Puckett was very successful with his trademark high leg kick. Puckett, however, seemed more the exception than the rule. Other players have had varying degrees of success with an over-exaggerated stride. As RJ Anderson pointed out at BaseballProspectus.com (subscription required) in July, the Athletics’ Josh Donaldson, who is garnering MVP consideration, struggled with the leg kick because it created a timing issue for him. Only once he was able to set his trigger properly was he able to produce at his current high level. In regard to the methods' overall acceptance, Anderson also recounts hitting instructor Bobby Tewkbury’s thoughts on why a high leg kick is not as much of a hinderance if implemented properly: “While some people might think the bigger leg kick is too much movement, when you use it properly it actually offers a great deal of control. You obviously shouldn’t just be lunging forward, but the leg kick into the creep forward allows the hitter to be balanced on the back leg during pitch recognition. This is where I see hitters establishing good adjustability to the pitch they are facing.” Pinto does not display the traits of someone lunging forward. Even with the high leg kick, he keeps his weight back extremely well and uses the short swing to get the bat to the ball quickly in the hitting zone. Because of his early success against off-speed pitches, one has to assume he is recognizing pitches very well. There will still be questions regarding Pinto’s full season abilities because his initial major league success comes in a small sample size; however, he has a strong foundation that should provide above-average production from the catcher’s spot in the future. Rest up Joe. Josmil’s got you covered. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Pinto.jpg There is a baseball adage among scouts and evaluators that you get fooled in spring training and in September. In both cases, teams are giving opportunity to evaluate younger, inexperienced players to often face other younger, inexperienced players. Have a big Grapefruit League performance, like outfielder Aaron Hicks, and suddenly you may find yourself with a starting position in April. Similarly, have a big September call-up performance, as Chris Parmelee did in 2011, and the following year you may be at the top of the depth chart. Success (or failure) in these environments can cause even the best evaluators to make ill-advised decisions. Former manager Bobby Valentine had been vocal about avoiding evaluating players based on September play. As did former Rockies manager Jim Tracy, who scoffed at the idea of evaluating players on a twenty-two game sample in 2011. Twins general manager Terry Ryan, a former scout himself who has seen plenty of September baseball, agreed. “I’m not so sure you can’t equate it to success or failure,” Ryan said recently in terms of evaluating his call-ups performance in the season’s final month. There are players who will excel and those who tank miserably, and this sampling should not be reflective of their long-term expectations. Even so, it is hard not to want to embrace players like catcher Josmil Pinto. Much like Parmelee did in 2011, Pinto has grabbed the remaining Twins fans’ attention by hitting 13-for-23 (.565) with six extra base hits over his first seven games. Since 1980, only Jay Bruce (.577) had a better start to his career through seven games. Beyond just the numbers, Pinto’s offensive skill set has certainly been impressive. Prior to Tuesday’s game against the A’s, he had demonstrated solid strike zone judgment while making excellent contact. In fact, he had seen 49 fastballs and swung-and-missed at only one. In addition to that, the Venezuelan backstop had ripped line drives all over the field – proving that he was not just an eager rookie swinging from his heels. Now, it is sad, depressed jerks like me who have to use this platform to point out that this production is unsustainable. When it comes to the numbers, seven games is absolutely nothing. And so are the next baker’s dozen or so after this. Nothing that Pinto does statistically makes him the automatic heir to the catcher’s throne in 2013. Like Parmelee, Pinto has not received the full-out advanced scouting treatment. In September 2011, people loved Parmelee’s approach and his ability to put a charge into the ball. Meanwhile, in 2012, opponents created a better game plan suited to getting him out. While they adjusted, Parmelee struggled to keep up. Since that magical month, he has hit just .226/.301/.374 in 149 games. Download attachment: Chart.PNG In Pinto’s case, he’s been very successful in counts in which pitchers attack the zone, like when he is ahead in the count (6-for-8, .750) and on even counts (5-for-7, .714). In last night’s game alone, the A’s staff threw Pinto 18 pitches, of which 15 were fastballs. As advanced scouts begin to see this pattern, they will likely advise their pitchers to change their approach – maybe more off-speed stuff or pitches on the edges of the plate. The Twins will travel to Oakland next week and for the first time in his major league career, opponents will have a second chance to game plan him. By that time, expect some changes in the pitchers’ approach. That match-up will be a milestone in his player development – will he be able to adjust at the plate along with the pitchers? This is not to say that Pinto cannot have a solid career in baseball. Over his eight minor league seasons, he has posted a 790 OPS. For comparison, former top catching prospect Wilson Ramos managed a 756 OPS in his six minor league seasons. Ramos, who started his major league career two years younger than Pinto, has continued to hit above-average for the Washington Nationals. Pinto can be a solid contributor for 2014 but do not base it on his performance in this month alone. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Food.jpg The Minnesota Twins and Delaware North Sportservices hosted a sampling of the new Target Field food lineup and TwinsDaily’s John Bonnes and Parker Hageman were on-hand to cover the new items and some ballpark favorites. Beginning at Hrbek’s the Twins introduced some of their new food items, including offerings from [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] elebrity chef Andrew Zimmern (a lamb/goat burger), freshly battered walleye fingers from Mac’s Fish & Chips, Panino’s Baked Sandwiches, new brats from Sheboygan Sausage Co and a trio of mac ‘n cheese selection from the Food Network just to name a few. The Twins dubbed the event “The Graze” as a collection of media members and lucky season ticket holders circulated the ballpark sampling a variety of food and beverages. Along with the new items, plenty of the old favorites will return, such as the Murray’s Steak Sandwich, the El Burrito Mercado’s Walk A Taco, Tony O’s Cuban Sandwich and Loon Café Chili. Opening Day cannot arrive quickly enough but the Twins have a fully loaded food and drink menu to draw you into the ballpark all season long. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: HicksDozier.jpg On Tuesday night in Boston, Aaron Hicks compounded his issues with the manager with a seemingly innocuous action on the field in the eighth inning, with the Twins securely up by six runs. With Jonny Gomes up at the plate, the Sox’s beefy right fielder lifted a fly ball into short center field. Hicks came racing in from the deepest regions of center field in Fenway (which is also shallow Maine) and in one motion nabs the falling sphere and flips it to second baseman Brian Dozier. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Afterwards, the Fox Sports North camera transitioned to the ancient Fenway dugout to capture manager Ron Gardenhire mimicking Hicks’ maneuver to one of the coaches and displaying general displeasure for what his center fielder just did. The broadcast team went over the play several times and then provided a close-up of Hicks who seemed to be peeking in the direction of the dugout while his manager fumed. Here you can find a quick glimpse of the play in question: When he came in after the inning, Hicks was greeted by Gardenhire, who, if he had any sense of Lou Brown/Major League humor at all, would have said “Nice catch Hicks, now don’t ever f**king do that again.” Instead, in the far corners of the green dugout, Gardenhire subjected Hicks to a Twins Way re-education seminar. Again, it was simple enough. Nothing overtly flashy or egregious. It was not as if the rookie had flipped the ball behind his back or between his legs. He did not take a pen out of his back pocket and sign it nor did he perform the Sam Cassell “big ball” celebration dance. While one cannot say for certain, this feels like a move that Torii Hunter and Carlos Gomez had done a handful of times during their tenure with the Minnesota Twins. Still, when you are put on Gardy’s double-secret probation list, the slightest indiscretion triggers these types of reactions. Hicks’ recent defensive gaffes had pushed him out of the lineup on Tuesday. On Monday, the center fielder allowed a seemingly catchable fly ball to drop to the earth and on a later play he overshot his cutoff man by four states – a play that was only salvaged because Pedro Florimon was able to make a strong throw home and Joe Mauer was able to sell the fact that he applied the tag when no tag was made. Ron Gardenhire thought the play should have been much easier than that. Monday night was not the first time this year in which the manager had to take a moment to lecture his young player on the merits of hitting the cut-off man. During spring training, Hicks missed his cut and Gardenhire talked to him afterwards in the dugout. "It was perfectly understandable why he got into me," Hicks told reporters after the spring training game. "I have to be able to hit the cutoff man. That's my job. That's what needed to be done, and I didn't do it." Overall, his defensive performance has been even more troublesome than just those two isolated instances. According to UZR/150, his mark of -14.2 runs is 18th out of 23 qualified center fielders. Meanwhile, his Revised Zone Rate (RZR) of .862 ranks 22 out of 23 – meaning that he is making just 86.2% of in-zone plays that center fielders should make. Lastly, Baseball Info Solution’s Plus/Minus has his contribution at -5. Certainly the small sample size warning applies but the three metrics all agree and appear to confirm the eye test that Hicks is not a defensive wizard to this point in the season. There is no question that Hicks has the speed to cover copious amounts of real estate and an arm to shut down opponents’ running games. He still has a lot to learn about how the game is played at the major league level. Gardenhire wants him to understand that you cannot have a million dollar arm and a ten cent head. Click here to view the article

There is no shortage in interest of Miguel Sano among Minnesota Twins fans. Last weekend, extended lines stretched around the Dome of people waiting to secure an autograph of a player who is still several years away from making his big league debut. This week, MLB.com announced their Top 100 prospects and labeled Sano the best third base prospect in baseball as well as the 12th overall in the game. He’s all the rage. Rarely do I field any question more from Twins fans these days than “When do you think that Sano will be ready?” Pronunciations of his last name will vary but the curiosity for the kid who has pummeled pitching at the lowest levels of the minors is growing rapidly in the Twin Cities and beyond. Defensively the mission is clear: Cut down on the errors. As a player just learning the position, this should be improved upon by time and repetition. Offensively, his obvious strong suit, there are a few wrinkles to smooth out prior to making it to Minnesota. Those who have followed his development on a regular basis have seen the unbelievable scouting grades on his power. This past August, former Baseball Prospectus prospect maven and current Houston Astros front office member Kevin Goldstein reiterated that he viewed Sano’s power potential as an 80 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. Sano’s first season in the Midwest League (low-A), certainly did nothing but possibly make scouts think about adding a few more numbers on to that scale to account for his pop. In addition to leading the league with 28 home runs (nine more than the next closest), he also led the league in isolated power average (.263) as well. That is an impressive statistic considering the league’s average for isolated power is around .120. And, the Midwest League, while favorable to hitters is not nearly the launching pad as compared to other leagues such as the California and Carolina leagues. While playing like a man among boys thus far in his career, at just age 19, Sano has plenty of adjustment to be made before launching shots into the third left field deck at Target Field. For example, not striking out so damn much. Analysts like to compare Sano’s potential to that of Miguel Cabrera. With Sano’s large frame that has not matured fully, one can see where the comparison comes from. Yet one key difference is that Cabrera struck out in about half of the minor league plate appearances that the Twins prospect has. Cabrera, who was called up by the Marlins as a 20-year-old, whiffed in just 16% of his minor league plate appearances. Meanwhile Sano, in 500 fewer professional plate appearances, has struck out 26% of the time. One correction the Twins and Sano have made since his Gulf Coast League days is quieting his noisy hands. In 2010, still a raw player fresh from the Dominican, Sano demonstrated a healthy bit of waggle to his bat – that is the constant movement of his hands prior to and when the pitch was being delivered. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1359731313_Sano1.gif Fast forward to the 2012 season with Beloit, Sano’s swing is much steadier, keeping his hands and bat still, which should lead to better contact and a quicker point A-to-B swing. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Sano2.gif Obviously, this change does not appear to have influenced his strikeout totals -- as that total rose again from 2011 to 2012 – but the difference was that he saw a noticeable reduction in the amount of strikeouts swinging (from 21% in ’11 to 18% in ’12) and an increase in the strikeouts looking (from 5% in ’11 to 8% in ’12). Incremental but perhaps an important step in Sano’s development. In addition to his strikeout rate, another area of his game to watch in 2013 is his line drive rate. Line drive rate is an important indicator which shows if a hitter is making solid, square contact. Likewise, among the three methods of putting the ball in play, line drives have the highest percentage of turning into a hit. Sano’s line drive rate has declined over the last three years while his fly ball rate has spiked, particularly from 2011 to 2012. According to minorleaguecentral.com, Sano held a 38% fly ball rate in 2011 but witnessed that rate jump to 48% last year. Not surprising, Sano’s batting average also dropped sharply from .292 to .258. Unless you are a player who can hit out a vast majority of their fly balls and while Sano led the Midwest League in the amount of flies to leave the park, there are still a high number that stay in the confines and those are turned into outs at a very favorable percentage to the defense. Without having watched him play on a regular basis, the compilation of videos available on the internets show somewhere around 15-to-20 of his swings. This reveals a player who is extremely susceptible to chasing after the low ball. As opponents’ reports spread from the Appy League to the Midwest League – not to mention pitchers’ ability to locate better -- Sano likely has seen a high dosage of pitches down. This tendency may explain the spike in his fly balls (as well as his hefty strikeout rate). When going after a pitch down in the zone, Sano will drop the bat at an angle which causes hitters to elevate the ball more frequently. As mentioned before, a good amount of those knee-high fastballs can be lifted up and out of the park but an even high total will be turned into outs in the outfield. Sano, who will start the 2013 season with the Ft Myers Miracle, will almost certainly experience a drop in his power numbers – particularly his home run totals. Ignore it. The Florida State League squelches offensive output. Rather, focus on the peripheral numbers (is he striking out more or less) and his batted ball tendencies (is he producing more line drives). Most of all: Show patience. There’s no question that Miguel Sano has a bright future ahead of him but he has a couple more years of work ahead of him. Click here to view the article