Seth Stohs

The Chattanooga team might be incredibly fun to watch. Beyond the four Nick wrote about who are some of the biggest keys to the next Twins competitive teams, there are other prospects. I wrote that a potential lineup with the Lookouts could be: Projected @ChattLookouts lineup: Buxton CF, Polanco SS, Rosario LF, Sano 3B, D Hicks 1B, Walker DH, Kepler RF, Turner C, Michael 2B. And, Rosario might start in Rochester, and if so, Travis Harrison takes that spot. Plus, guys like Berrios, Wheeler, Duffey, Rogers, Baxendale and others will be probably early in the rotation. And in the bullpen, they could have Zack Jones, Tyler Jones, Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, Van Steensel, etc. And they want Doug to be the one helping them.

Mark Feinsand from the New York Daily News is reporting this morning that the Twins and Phil Hughes have agreed to a three-year contract extension worth $42 million. The contract could keep Hughes in a Twins uniform through the 2019 season.Hughes came to the Twins a year ago on a three year contract worth $24 million. According to Feinsand, instead of making $8 million each of the next two seasons, he will receive $9.2 million the next two years. After that, he will get $13.2 million from 2017 through 2019. He can also receive another $200,000 in any season in which he pitches at least 200 innings. In essence, the team's ripped up his current contract and signed the still-just-28-year-old to a five year, $58 million contract. When he came to the Twins a year ago, both sides were taking on some risk. The Twins gave three years and $24 million to a guy who had really struggled as a starting pitcher with the New York Yankees. On the other hand, Hughes knew that if he had a big year, he would still be under contract at terms lower than he could get on the open market. Now the risk lies solely with the Twins. The move will ensure that the Twins will have Hughes, Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco as fixtures in the rotation through 2017. In addition to Kyle Gibson, barring any trades, this leaves just one vacancy for an emerging pitching prospect like Alex Meyer or Jose Berrios in the near future. In his final start Hughes went eight innings before rain and a one hour delay ended his day just one out short of a $500,000 bonus (210 innings). This certainly should help him forget about that! Click here to view the article

I really like the Brock Peterson signing. Basically replaces Coabello. I'm starting to think that lightfoot might just be Adam Brett Walker. If he had been a non-roster invite, that would have been great. I'd have been happy for him. He's such a good person. But looking at the outfielders on the 40 man roster and the outfielders that are non-roster guys, I can't at all be upset that Walker isn't invited. You can only have so many guys at big league camp. He's find going to minor league camp a couple of weeks later. They'll bring him over to big league camp a few times for games. He sure had a good showing in his one spring big league game last year!

Yup, the 40 players on the 40 man roster are required to be at MLB spring training.

On Friday afternoon, the Twins announced that they have invited 18 non-roster players to major league spring training. Among others, top prospects such as JO Berrios, Byron Buxton, Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers will report to big league camp.The Twins announced today that six pitchers will be there to open spring training. JO Berrios is officially invited to his first big league camp, although he was there with the team when he was working out before the WBC two years ago. Right-handers Tyler Duffey, Mark Hamburger and Adrian Salcedo will also be there. So will left-handers Ryan O'Rourke and Taylor Rogers. The team always needs plenty of catchers. Dan Rohlfing recently signed to remain with the organization. Stuart Turner will return for his second big league spring training. Tyler Grimes and Mitch Garver will participate in their first spring training with the big leaguers. James Beresford and Doug Bernier return to the organization and to big league camp. They will be joined by newcomers Argenis Diaz and Heiker Meneses. Byron Buxton will return to big league camp in 2015 along with fellow outfielders Eric Farris, Danny Ortiz and Shane Robinson. Pioneer Press's Mike Berardino also tweeted that the Twins have brought back former 49th round draft pick Brock Peterson. Click here to view the article

People should read what he told me his goals were in the Prospect Handbook!

I did a Q&A with JO before last season, and for the Prospect Handbook, I interviewed him again. Just a tremendous kid, and from the comments other teammates said about him in the article, he must be a harder worker than anyone else ever. It's such a big point for anything who is asked about him. I just hope he can stay healthy. He became a father last year, and he got married last weekend. Good family too.

That's a bit deceiving. He's played two years of A-Ball, one at Low-A and one at High-A...

JR Graham was on the Twins Hot Stove show with Kris Atteberry on Wednesday night. Check it out here.

Pelfrey didn't have a terrific season.

My opinion is that Atlanta will just take him back. Maybe I'm wrong, but the guy is really talented so unless the Twins offered something really good, I can only see him making the big league bullpen or being offered back.

Though they did do that with Ryan Pressly two years ago. My thought is the Braves would prefer to get him back and they wouldn't be able to work out a trade. My assumption is if he doesn't make the team, he is lost. But, who knows.

On Sunday, I posted a Q&A with Twins minor league Rule 5 draft pick Greg Peavey. It was fun to get to know a little about him. Today, I’m happy to provide an interview with the Twins Major League Rule 5 draft pick, JR Graham. You can learn much more about Graham in the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2015.The Twins selected the right-hander with the fifth pick in the Rule 5 draft. He was a top prospect with the Braves a couple of years ago, with a fastball that touched triple digits. Shoulder injuries have stalled his progress the last two years, but the Twins scouts who saw him in 2014 liked what they saw. Twins pro scouting director Vern Followell told Mike Berardino that they saw him hit 97 and 98 mph this year. With any MLB Rule 5 pick, Graham will need to stick with the Twins, on their 25-man roster, through the 2015 season or be offered back to Atlanta. His opportunity with the Twins would be primarily out of the bullpen. He will turn 25 in January. Graham was drafted in the 46th round of the 2008 draft by his favorite team while growing up, the Oakland A’s. Graham said, “I would have to say my favorite team growing up was the Oakland As, but I did also like the San Francisco Giants. Some of my favorite players growing up were Tim Hudson, Randy Johnson (same home town and high school), and Pedro Martinez. It’s funny to look back now and realize they were all pitchers I enjoyed the most since I played shortstop growing up and rarely pitched.” He decided to go to college at Santa Clara University. Three years later, the Braves used their fourth round pick on him. He rocketed up prospect rankings with a fastball and ranked as high as the Braves #3 prospect. Unfortunately in 2013, he started experiencing some shoulder issues that have curtailed his last two seasons. “The shoulder injury had to be one of the most frustrating things in my life. You just feel helpless. It’s a moment I will never forget. I threw the pitch, and I felt it go. I remember just walking around the mound not knowing what to do. You have no way of knowing what is exactly wrong with you, but I knew whatever it was I was going to work through it and come back and be able to pitch. Right now, I feel 100% and can’t wait to get down to spring training and show everyone what I've got.” Last Thursday though, after four season in the Atlanta organization, Graham got the news that he had been selected in the Rule 5 draft. “The funny thing about the morning of the Rule 5 is that I wasn't actually paying much attention to it. I was driving from Orlando to Jacksonville to be a groomsman in my buddy’s wedding, Gus Schlosser, who pitched for Atlanta last year. So all of a sudden my phone started ringing like crazy, and I knew something good had to have happened. Once I did know I was selected by the Twins, it was a huge relief and I couldn't have been happier. I have been in contact with the Twins since the Rule 5.” Of course, with all his time spent in Atlanta, he was able to accumulate many great moments and friendships. “I had a lot of great memories with Atlanta, so it is hard to put just one down. But the one that is sticking out in my mind would have to be my first big league spring training and taking the mound for the first time. It was just a huge rush and crazy because I was on the field with the same guys I was watching on TV a year earlier.” He isn’t completely unfamiliar with the Twins organization. He knows a few of the players and recognizes many others. “I was excited to get back on the same teal as Gilly (Sean Gilmartin), but he also got Rule 5'd, and I couldn’t be happier for him. I wish him luck over with his new organization. I do know a couple of other guys in the Twins organization. One of my best friends growing up was David Hurlbut. We played travel ball growing up. I know Tyler Jones, Tim Shibuya, Zach Jones. I got to play with Jordan Schafer over with Atlanta. I also remember playing against the Elizabethton Twins in the Appy League so I am sure I will remember a few other names.” Danville is the Appalachian League affiliate of the Braves. Elizabethton and Danville are frequently the teams to beat in their divisions. That 2011 Elizabethton team included Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler and Niko Goodrum. So, what do we know about Graham as a pitcher? Well, why don’t we let him give us a scouting report on himself? “I am an aggressive pitcher. Once I get on that mound, I dont think anyone can beat me. I try to be a bulldog out there and have ‘No Fear.’ I throw a 4-seam and a 2-seam fastball, a slider and a change up.” Graham still spends his off-seasons in California with his parents and his sisters. He keeps pretty active away from the game of baseball as well. His hobbies include “working out, playing video games, learning to play guitar, a little bit of golf, watching movies, and going out on the boat to wakeboard and do some bare-footing.” I believe he really does have a chance to impress the Twins brass enough for them to want to keep him around. When the Twins selected Scott Diamond from the Braves in the Rule 5 several years ago, they were able to send Billy Bullock to the Braves in order to keep him in the organization. My sense is that if he doesn't make the Twins 25-man roster out of spring training, the Braves may want him back and not be willing to work out a trade this time around. Graham is excited about being selected in the Rule 5 draft and coming to the Twins organization. “Going into spring, I am just thankful for this opportunity the Twins are giving me. My dream has always been to be a major league baseball player. I can’t wait to get started with the Twins organization. It’s going to be a lot of fun!” Click here to view the article

I'm with you in one way... The only way we're able to see if they "dominate" the league is through the stats. Often I read people wanting guys rushed up because they are killing the ball for 3 weeks or a month... a lot of times, those guys will get figured out. Sometimes experiencing that struggle and then making the adjustments is for the best. Coaches that watch and interact with these guys every day are the ones who likely know best. It's not just about the numbers. It's about defense. It's about approach at the plate and in the field. It's about maturity. So, I don't fully agree with the need to 'dominate' a league statistically to move up, but I do agree with having a bunch of check boxes marked off before moving guys up.

I'm not a fan of hoarding guys there... But, for instance, with Deibinson Romero gone and Miguel Sano likely shaking off rust for awhile in AA, I would have no problem with the Twins signing a AAA/AAAA caliber 3B to fill the Rochester roster until Sano is ready. Might be the same with guys like Rosario and Polanco and Turner and Burdi and Reed and Michael and Rogers and Wheeler and, and, and... AA is considered the level with the best prospects. They're seeing the best fastballs and good sliders and guys that are young, motivated and just need a little more refinement. AAA is an area with older guys who have learned a lot in their time. The fastballs may not be as good, but pitchers are pretty savvy and know how to get punk-kid hitters out. They are different and yet both can be valuable in that, the big leaguers have pretty good stuff and know-how... It's this kind of discussion that just fascinates me about minor league baseball.

Yup, and after his 2014 season, he moved up all of our prospect lists... http://www.lulu.com/spotlight/sethspeaks

I acknowledge in the article the reason that average is what it is. But I will also say that these players need to play against the guys with more experience which are the people they're playing against. Also, if you want to define prospect, that's up to you. Anyone that has even the slightest chance to get to the big leagues? Only those that eventually get to the big leagues. I acknowledge that the AAA and to a lesser extent AA average age throws it off, but even if you were to make the AA one 24 and the AAA one 25, you'd still find similar results. It's more just to give a perspective on what the prospects are doing and where they are.

We all like Meyer, and we all still like his potential. But there has to be some reason that he hasn't been called up yet. It could be that he has a ton of potential still and they want to make sure that he works out 2-3 things before getting exposed. It could be that they just don't believe that he is ready to be a starter in the big leagues and that maybe his future is as a bullpen guy. My guess is if you were to privately poll a dozen members of the Twins brass that would be educated on him, you'd probably find a 50/50 split. They aren't keeping Meyer down for any monetary reasons. They've shown plenty of times a willingness to call guys up younger, or at the beginning of the season instead of waiting a month or two. So, it's not that. That tells me that in their belief, it is in the best interest of Meyer to have kept him down to this point.

This should be the only criteria that should matter to Terry Ryan, Brad Steil and those decision-makers. Are they ready? Obviously there is no Magic 8-ball that makes that an easy decision on a player. Age shouldn't be a factor.

It's NEVER too old to make a major league debut. Ask Chris Colabello, Andrew Albers, Chris Coste, Chris Heintz. Now, to have a Hall of Fame career, of course you'll need to be up by the time you're 24 (and then be lucky enough to not only be really good, but do it for at least a dozen years). Buxton and Sano (should they get up at 21 and 22 - and for sure if they'd been up at 20 and 21) are rarities. I'm guessing a very small percentage of big leaguers made their debut at 20 or less. Think about it, anyone that went to college for even three years will almost automatically be 23 when they get called up AT THE EARLIEST. Winfield is an exception to that.

When developing prospect lists, one of many criteria that goes into the thinking is Age-to-Level data. High-ranking prospects are often guys with great tools who are performing at a level where they are very young. If you look near the top of the Top 30 prospect lists that Jeremy, Cody and I put together for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2015, you’ll see a lot of players who were very young for their level.In the Prospect Handbook, there are two pages dedicated to looking at the league average age and performance of hitters and pitchers at each level. Here is what was shown for the Ft. Myers Miracle and the Florida State League. FT. MYERS MIRACLE (82-57) · FSL Hitters – 22.6, .257/.325/.371 (.695) · Miracle Hitters – 22.4, .261/.339/.383 (.722) · FSL Pitchers – 23.2, 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP · Miracle Pitchers – 23.3, 3.34 ERA, 1.32 WHIP What does it mean? As you can see, the Miracle hitters and pitchers were, on average, about the same as the league average. They also performed a little better than league average in offense and pitching. By itself, this information is kind of fun to look at, but more important, it provides perspective. If a 25 year old in the Florida State League hits .300/400/500 (.900), it’s good. But if a 20-year-old hits .275/.350/.400 (.750) in the same league, he is a very good prospect. The 25-year-old could still become a big leaguer, and could even have a solid career. The 20-year-old likely has a higher ceiling. So, with that bit of background, I thought it would be fun to take a look at which Twins prospects were the youngest at their level. Players that spent time in multiple levels can show up multiple times on this list. This is not a perfect analysis, but it does give a range. Baseball-Refence.com has a method in which each player plays a season at a certain age. JO Berrios was 19 when he began the season in Ft. Myers. He turned 20 in mid-May, so his 2014 season was considered his age-20 season. As you see above, the average age for a pitcher in the Florida State League was 23.2. So, in this analysis, Berrios was 3.2 years younger than the average pitcher in the Florida State League. Years Below League Average 2.2 Years: Nick Gordon at Elizabethton 2.2 Years: Nick Burdi at Ft. Myers 2.2 Years: Aaron Slegers at Ft. Myers 2.3 Years: Callan Pearce at GCL Twins 2.6 Years: Byron Buxton at Ft. Myers 2.6 Years: Jorge Polanco at Ft. Myers 2.6 Years: Ruar Verkerk at GCL Twins 2.9 Years: Trevor May at Rochester 2.9 Years: Stephen Pryor at Rochester 2.9 Years: Michael Tonkin at Rochester 2.9 Years: Aaron Hicks at Rochester (he was 0.7 years younger than the AA Eastern League hitters) 3.0 Years: Stephen Gonsalves at Cedar Rapids 3.0 Years: Fernando Romero at Cedar Rapids 3.0 Years: Kohl Stewart at Cedar Rapids 3.2 Years: JO Berrios at Ft. Myers 3.9 Years: Tyler Duffey at Rochester 3.9 Years: Jason Wheeler at Rochester 3.9 Years: Oswaldo Arcia at Rochester 4.0 Years: Lewis Thorpe at Cedar Rapids 4.7 Years: Byron Buxton at New Britain 4.7 Years: Jorge Polanco at New Britain 6.9 Years: JO Berrios at Rochester You may be asking yourself the very question that I asked myself. Where would Miguel Sano have fit on this list had he been able to play. It would have been his age-21 season. In his time in AA New Britain, he would have been 3.6 years younger than the average player. We can assume he also would have moved up to AAA at some point during the season. He would have been 5.9 years younger than league average. Here are a few notes about the above: The average age at AAA is pretty high. In the International League, the hitters and the pitchers averaged an age of 26.9. Triple-A isn’t so much about prospects. It’s about guys moving up and down from the big leaguers. It’s about journeymen in the organization to provide depth and help the affiliate win games.JO Berrios was very young for the Florida State League, so when he moved up to New Britain, he was even younger compared to his competition. When he made his final-weekend start with the Red Wings, he was competing against hitters who were about seven years older, and more experienced.Byron Buxton is one of the best prospects in baseball, but notice how quickly Jorge Polanco has moved up the system. Sure, he signed as a 16-year-old two years before Buxton was drafted, but he’s the same age as Buxton and he spent nearly half of his season in New Britain as well. As you know, he became a big leaguer (admittedly out of necessity) at the age of 20.Notice how young were some of those pitchers in Cedar Rapids were. Lewis Thorpe was about four years younger than the average hitter he was facing. Kohl Stewart spent the whole year with the Kernels, and was about three years younger than the competition. Fernando Romero came up at the same time as Thorpe, just a year older. Stephen Gonsalves was promoted for the final month of the Kernels season.I sometimes wonder if people realize just how young Oswaldo Arcia is. Despite a ton of strikeouts, he has shown tremendous power potential. And, he is younger than several players still in the minor leagues who are considered very good prospects.You see a couple of GCL Twins names, Callan Pearce and Ruar Verkerk. When players are signed from the Dominican Republic or Venezuela, they typically spend a year or two or three in the Dominican Summer League. Pearce is from South Africa. Verkerk is from The Netherlands. Players from those countries, Australia, Germany, etc., have to come to the States to play in the GCL and you can better understand why these guys take a little longer to develop.So, this article is intended to be informational regarding the Twins minor league system and minor league baseball in general. Age to level of competition is a topic that Cody wrote about often in his 2014 Recaps for each of the 158 players that were profiled in the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2015. It also should just help put into perspective player performance and prospect rankings. Click here to view the article