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Everything posted by Seth Stohs
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He fits into the category with Pressly and Tonkin and such. He could, but after being pushed to MLB last year, and likely learning a ton, he can got back to AAA and hopefully develop more and more.
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Article: TD Top Prospect: #1 Byron Buxton
Seth Stohs replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Zero reason to be concerned for the first couple of weeks, as Dante says above. A key thing, long-term, for him will be to avoid swinging at those low and away breaking pitches. That was an issue for a couple of years with Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer. That takes time and a lot of at bats. I'm going to be more concerned if he keeps missing fastballs down the middle of the plate like he did last year at times. My level of concern for Buxton long term is about 2.8% -
Fair point. I won't worry ever about any one outing, but I feel better about Taylor Rogers clearly looking nervous and short-arming pitches and not having real good control in his inning than about Nolasco getting rocked. Though, to be fair, Nolasco was hurt a little by his RF, but even there, that ball was absolutely crushed.
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Absolutely correct... They'll get a chance to work with Neil Allen and Eddie Guardado. They may meet some struggles (they will), and they can be optioned with an encouraging message of "Here's what you need to work on, and you'll be back soon." They can replace that guy with another young guy. That's what I would do. I'm not suggesting that's what the Twins will do, and of course, I don't necessarily think there isn't value in having veteran types too. It should be a mix though.
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You are absolutely correct... I updated it accordingly! Thank you!
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Recently, left-handed reliever Matt Thornton signed a minor league deal with the San Diego Padres. He was one of many left-handed relievers mentioned on this site this offseason. Meanwhile, the Twins have more than a half-dozen relief pitchers in the upper levels of the minor leagues who could be ready to contribute at some point during the 2016 season. Therein lies the struggle. Is it better to have aging veterans whose careers are clearly on the downward trajectory or youth with loads of talent but minimal (if any) big league experience? The best answer? It’s best to have players who are still in their prime with a ton of talent. However, we all know that teams are comprised of solely all-star caliber players aged 24 to 31. The real answer is that each team is going to be comprised of some veterans and some rookies. But the Twins had some tough decisions this offseason, and there will be more next offseason, and every subsequent offseason. This offseason, the bullpen was the focal point, and this very topic is at the crux of what happened, or what didn’t happen, if you prefer.Early in the offseason, Terry Ryan spoke frequently about the need to improve the bullpen, a bullpen that really struggled, especially in the second half of last season. As we got to the Winter Meetings, the focus became left-handed pitching. Yet, as the offseason continued on and now spring training has started, the Twins went without signing or trading for any MLB relief pitchers. Some can argue that the Twins accomplished some measure of addition by subtraction. They chose not to bring back free agents Blaine Boyer, Brian Duensing or Neal Cotts (each signed a minor league contract elsewhere shortly before spring training). Glen Perkins. Kevin Jepsen. Casey Fien. Probably Trevor May, as we assume he’ll be in the bullpen and not the rotation. We know it’s very possible that Ricky Nolasco or Tommy Milone, whichever is not the team’s fifth starter, will be in the bullpen. That leaves just two spots that are really open (assuming no trades, or any injuries - which of course can’t be assumed). Michael Tonkin is out of options. He will get a very long look. Many will say that he is a favorite for one more spot. I am one of them, though I do not think his roster spot is a given. So, let’s get back to the question at the top. Do we want veterans or young players with upside? 39-year-old Matt Thornton has been a high-quality left-handed reliever for a decade. He was truly great from 2008 to 2010 when he threw really hard (mid-to-upper 90s) for the White Sox. While his velocity and strikeout rates have dropped the last five years, he still had an ERA under 2.00 last year. Will that continue as he approaches 40? Maybe. Neal Cotts, Brian Duensing, Manny Parra and others fall a category or two lower than Thornton. They’re a little younger, and they have had some experience and a bit of success over the last five to six years. They are veterans, but there isn’t a lot of potential. They are sixth and seventh inning type of guys. Reading the forums of Twins Daily the last couple of years, there are many who think that those lower-leverage situations are ideal for a young pitcher with upside. Remember, between Perkins, Jepsen, May and Fien, the 8th and 9th innings are pretty well covered. If things are going well, that group could cover the 7th inning at times as well. Ricky Nolasco (if he’s in the bullpen) is the likely long reliever. Let’s not call Michael Tonkin a given yet. So, do we want those veterans for the sixth and seventh inning, or do we want youngsters in those two remaining spots in the bullpen? SEEN THEM, STILL YOUNG (RH RP) Ryan Pressly was doing well when he was injured last year. He deserves another opportunity and will pitch well. JR Graham was up due to the Rule 5 rules last year, and he has a lot of talent. Most likely, he’ll do what Pressly has done and spend plenty of time in AAA in 2016. Alex Meyer clearly has a world of talent and will likely get an opportunity at some point in 2016 and has huge upside. He’s got to throw more strikes. Tonkin himself fits into this category. YOUNG FLAMETHROWERS (RH RP) JT Chargois sure had an impressive spring debut on Thursday night. He coaxed three weak ground balls with his mid-to-upper-90s fastball, solid slurve and good change-up. He missed 2013 and 2014 due to injury, but he returned in 2015. He began in Ft. Myers, but he worked up to Chattanooga where he became the closer for the Southern League champions. Jake Reed came on with two on and one out in the 2nd on Thursday. He showed his mid-90s fastball, slider and a lot of movement. He needed a few pitches, but he got the double play. He was drafted in 2014 and dominated in two levels plus the AFL. In 2015, he jumped to AA where he struggled. After time in Ft. Myers he returned to the Lookouts, and then he pitched well in the AFL. Nick Burdi, like Chargois, can touch triple digits, and he has a strong slider too. He was terrific in the AFL, looking like he had found some control and had a great slider working. If he can continue with those pitches he will be up soon.These three are not likely to make the Opening Day roster, but all three of them could be ready within a month or two of the season. MINOR LEAGUE SIGNINGS (RH RP) The Twins signed veteran reliever Brandon Kintzler to a minor league deal. He had a couple of good years before a leg injury cost him much of his 2015 season. MINOR LEAGUE SIGNINGS (LH RP) The Twins brought back Aaron Thompson who was good for them the first four or five weeks of the season, and then struggled and went to AAA. But, he could be adequate in the short-term. The Twins signed two guys out of independent ball who won’t make the team, Dan Runzler and Buddy Boschers, but could make an impression in spring training and be an option later. The one veteran lefty reliever with an opportunity, most likely, to make the Opening Day roster is Fernando Abad. He’s just past 30, and he’s had some big league success. We’ll see. Though he is no longer on the 40-man roster, Logan Darnell could fill a left-handed reliever (or long-reliever) role out of the bullpen for the Twins in 2016. Darnell is not on the 40-man roster because the Twins signed lefty Mike Strong, who will compete for a job in Chattanooga or Rochester this spring at age 27. YOUNG LEFTIES Taylor Rogers had a rough - yes, really rough - 2016 spring debut on Thursday night. The first five batters reached, three scored, before he got the final three batters out. He even gave up back-to-back doubles to left-handers. However, of 202 lefties he faced in 2015 in AAA, he gave up just three extra-base hits (all doubles). He has a track record of dominating lefties. No, he’s never really pitched out of the bullpen, but he has the potential to be really, really good. High upside, lacking in experience. I’ll put 27-year-old Ryan O’Rourke in this category too. He spent the second half of 2015 with the Twins. He has made a career out of dominating left-handers as well. He did that with the Twins, at least until late in the season when he was used sparingly and in situations where he had to get both lefties and righties out. Mason Melotakis is potentially the left-handed equivalent to Burdi and Chargois. He missed all of 2015 but came back in Instructs hitting 97. He is a three-pitch pitcher with very nasty stuff. He really just needs to get some innings in the minors before throwing him into the big leagues. But he’s another that shouldn’t surprise us if we see him a lot in 2016. WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN? I mean, it’s going to mean something different to everyone. Have I mentioned Tony Sipp or Antonio Bastardo? No, because I fully understand not wanting to go three years on them. That is especially true as upside guys like Yorman Landa, Brandon Peterson and Trevor Hildenberger get closer too. I think the key points are these: The Twins have four guys at the back end of the bullpen that they can, most likely, rely upon. (Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May and Casey Fien)Michael Tonkin and Ricky Nolasco likely have the upper hand early in spring training on roster spots.The Twins could go with veteran relievers. They brought a couple in with some big league success (Fernando Abad, Brandon Kintzler). There are still a couple out there who the Twins could sign if things go poorly for the other lefties this spring (Franklyn Morales, Randy Choate, Joe Beimel). Based on the volatility of relief pitchers, any of them could be good, or bad, for the year.The Twins could choose to have their final bullpen spot or two filled by high upside pitchers that can be brought along slowly in lower-leverage situations. The fact that they have a bunch of options means that they shouldn’t be afraid to send these guys up and down from time to time throughout the season.So, who are the highest upside guys right now? In my mind, there are five guys that I would consider going with early in the season. Alex Meyer has huge upside. JT Chargois and Nick Burdi have the biggest upsides, and are both very nearly ready. Jake Reed is close to that level as well. Mason Melotakis has a huge upside, is left-handed, and now just needs to work some innings. He may not be down long. And, Taylor Rogers in a low-leverage situation where he can go 1-2 innings, or just go against left-handers, can be very good. That is list of six guys who may be ready in 2016. We thought some of them would be ready in 2015, and they weren’t. It’s possible that they won’t be again in 2016. If not, that shows bigger issues in the organization that likely need to be addressed. The talent is there, and they need to get to the big leagues. The only way to get them experience is to give them experience. That obviously starts this spring. They will take their lumps. So will veterans. So, the Twins (and fans) need to decide whether they want the lumps taken by a veteran like Matt Thornton or guys who could become the next Matt Thornton (circa 2008-2010). There is no way for the Twins (or fans) to know what the right decision is for 2016. That’s why they play the games. BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE These veteran versus high-upside, unproven talent questions happen all over the place. Consider the starting rotation. In theory, it’s possible that the Twins could decide on a rotation of Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco and Milone and let Duffey and Berrios go to Rochester. Duffey is pretty solidly penciled in to the starting rotation, but Berrios has very little chance to be on the Opening Day roster. As fans, do we want the veteran like Nolasco, who has had some measure of success in the past, or do we want to see the high-upside of Berrios? Behind the plate, do we want to see the veteran in Kurt Suzuki, or would we prefer to see John Ryan Murphy get more playing time? There’s a reason that we want the Twins to go with Byron Buxton as their center fielder from Opening Day. It isn’t a certainty that he is ready right now. It’s a confidence that his upside and potential are very high. Meanwhile a certain sect of Twins fans were disappointed when Rajai Davis signed elsewhere. Signing Davis would affect a roster spot and, more important, playing time for Buxton, or Eddie Rosario, or eventually Max Kepler. Some fans even see a scenario where trading an all-star, a proven veteran and a still-just-28-year-old Brian Dozier to make room for Jorge Polanco. In 2006, we saw the Twins sign veterans Juan Castro and Tony Batista to man the left-side of the infield. By mid-June those two were gone and Jason Bartlett and Nick Punto took over, and the team took off. That’s not to say that going with a veteran is always wrong either. On the right contract, a veteran can be great. The Twins have had plenty of success with minor league free agent signings in recent years (Jared Burton, Sam Deduno, Chris Colabello, Casey Fien, etc.). They’ve had success, at least for one year with major league signings (Phil Hughes, Josh Willingham). They’ve had failures with free agent signings too (Lamb, Nolasco, etc). Unfortunately in baseball, played by people as it is, there is no way to guarantee what kind of performance you will get from any player, veteran, or rookie. In 1991, the Twins signed Jack Morris, who wasn’t very good the two previous seasons in Detroit. They could have gone with the young guy with upside, like David West or something. They signed veteran Chili Davis rather than going with someone like Paul Sorrento. A year earlier, they had traded prospects for an upper-30s Bert Blyleven, and they re-acquired a long-time veteran Roy Smalley. I guess they were bringing back the gang, right? So what is the 'right' strategy, and can the answer to that question change? In other words, was the answer different during the 90-loss seasons than in 2016 when the team is expecting to compete for a playoff berth? We are two games into spring training. Opening Day is a month away. A lot of decisions will be made. Some will prove right. Some will prove wrong. But will the philosophy be to go with veterans, or will it be to go with youth and talent? My guess is that it will be a little of both. The important thing after making those Opening Day roster decisions, will be how quickly changes will be made. Click here to view the article
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Early in the offseason, Terry Ryan spoke frequently about the need to improve the bullpen, a bullpen that really struggled, especially in the second half of last season. As we got to the Winter Meetings, the focus became left-handed pitching. Yet, as the offseason continued on and now spring training has started, the Twins went without signing or trading for any MLB relief pitchers. Some can argue that the Twins accomplished some measure of addition by subtraction. They chose not to bring back free agents Blaine Boyer, Brian Duensing or Neal Cotts (each signed a minor league contract elsewhere shortly before spring training). Glen Perkins. Kevin Jepsen. Casey Fien. Probably Trevor May, as we assume he’ll be in the bullpen and not the rotation. We know it’s very possible that Ricky Nolasco or Tommy Milone, whichever is not the team’s fifth starter, will be in the bullpen. That leaves just two spots that are really open (assuming no trades, or any injuries - which of course can’t be assumed). Michael Tonkin is out of options. He will get a very long look. Many will say that he is a favorite for one more spot. I am one of them, though I do not think his roster spot is a given. So, let’s get back to the question at the top. Do we want veterans or young players with upside? 39-year-old Matt Thornton has been a high-quality left-handed reliever for a decade. He was truly great from 2008 to 2010 when he threw really hard (mid-to-upper 90s) for the White Sox. While his velocity and strikeout rates have dropped the last five years, he still had an ERA under 2.00 last year. Will that continue as he approaches 40? Maybe. Neal Cotts, Brian Duensing, Manny Parra and others fall a category or two lower than Thornton. They’re a little younger, and they have had some experience and a bit of success over the last five to six years. They are veterans, but there isn’t a lot of potential. They are sixth and seventh inning type of guys. Reading the forums of Twins Daily the last couple of years, there are many who think that those lower-leverage situations are ideal for a young pitcher with upside. Remember, between Perkins, Jepsen, May and Fien, the 8th and 9th innings are pretty well covered. If things are going well, that group could cover the 7th inning at times as well. Ricky Nolasco (if he’s in the bullpen) is the likely long reliever. Let’s not call Michael Tonkin a given yet. So, do we want those veterans for the sixth and seventh inning, or do we want youngsters in those two remaining spots in the bullpen? SEEN THEM, STILL YOUNG (RH RP) Ryan Pressly was doing well when he was injured last year. He deserves another opportunity and will pitch well. JR Graham was up due to the Rule 5 rules last year, and he has a lot of talent. Most likely, he’ll do what Pressly has done and spend plenty of time in AAA in 2016. Alex Meyer clearly has a world of talent and will likely get an opportunity at some point in 2016 and has huge upside. He’s got to throw more strikes. Tonkin himself fits into this category. YOUNG FLAMETHROWERS (RH RP) JT Chargois sure had an impressive spring debut on Thursday night. He coaxed three weak ground balls with his mid-to-upper-90s fastball, solid slurve and good change-up. He missed 2013 and 2014 due to injury, but he returned in 2015. He began in Ft. Myers, but he worked up to Chattanooga where he became the closer for the Southern League champions. Jake Reed came on with two on and one out in the 2nd on Thursday. He showed his mid-90s fastball, slider and a lot of movement. He needed a few pitches, but he got the double play. He was drafted in 2014 and dominated in two levels plus the AFL. In 2015, he jumped to AA where he struggled. After time in Ft. Myers he returned to the Lookouts, and then he pitched well in the AFL. Nick Burdi, like Chargois, can touch triple digits, and he has a strong slider too. He was terrific in the AFL, looking like he had found some control and had a great slider working. If he can continue with those pitches he will be up soon.These three are not likely to make the Opening Day roster, but all three of them could be ready within a month or two of the season. MINOR LEAGUE SIGNINGS (RH RP) The Twins signed veteran reliever Brandon Kintzler to a minor league deal. He had a couple of good years before a leg injury cost him much of his 2015 season. MINOR LEAGUE SIGNINGS (LH RP) The Twins brought back Aaron Thompson who was good for them the first four or five weeks of the season, and then struggled and went to AAA. But, he could be adequate in the short-term. The Twins signed two guys out of independent ball who won’t make the team, Dan Runzler and Buddy Boschers, but could make an impression in spring training and be an option later. The one veteran lefty reliever with an opportunity, most likely, to make the Opening Day roster is Fernando Abad. He’s just past 30, and he’s had some big league success. We’ll see. Though he is no longer on the 40-man roster, Logan Darnell could fill a left-handed reliever (or long-reliever) role out of the bullpen for the Twins in 2016. Darnell is not on the 40-man roster because the Twins signed lefty Mike Strong, who will compete for a job in Chattanooga or Rochester this spring at age 27. YOUNG LEFTIES Taylor Rogers had a rough - yes, really rough - 2016 spring debut on Thursday night. The first five batters reached, three scored, before he got the final three batters out. He even gave up back-to-back doubles to left-handers. However, of 202 lefties he faced in 2015 in AAA, he gave up just three extra-base hits (all doubles). He has a track record of dominating lefties. No, he’s never really pitched out of the bullpen, but he has the potential to be really, really good. High upside, lacking in experience. I’ll put 27-year-old Ryan O’Rourke in this category too. He spent the second half of 2015 with the Twins. He has made a career out of dominating left-handers as well. He did that with the Twins, at least until late in the season when he was used sparingly and in situations where he had to get both lefties and righties out. Mason Melotakis is potentially the left-handed equivalent to Burdi and Chargois. He missed all of 2015 but came back in Instructs hitting 97. He is a three-pitch pitcher with very nasty stuff. He really just needs to get some innings in the minors before throwing him into the big leagues. But he’s another that shouldn’t surprise us if we see him a lot in 2016. WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN? I mean, it’s going to mean something different to everyone. Have I mentioned Tony Sipp or Antonio Bastardo? No, because I fully understand not wanting to go three years on them. That is especially true as upside guys like Yorman Landa, Brandon Peterson and Trevor Hildenberger get closer too. I think the key points are these: The Twins have four guys at the back end of the bullpen that they can, most likely, rely upon. (Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May and Casey Fien) Michael Tonkin and Ricky Nolasco likely have the upper hand early in spring training on roster spots. The Twins could go with veteran relievers. They brought a couple in with some big league success (Fernando Abad, Brandon Kintzler). There are still a couple out there who the Twins could sign if things go poorly for the other lefties this spring (Franklyn Morales, Randy Choate, Joe Beimel). Based on the volatility of relief pitchers, any of them could be good, or bad, for the year. The Twins could choose to have their final bullpen spot or two filled by high upside pitchers that can be brought along slowly in lower-leverage situations. The fact that they have a bunch of options means that they shouldn’t be afraid to send these guys up and down from time to time throughout the season. So, who are the highest upside guys right now? In my mind, there are five guys that I would consider going with early in the season. Alex Meyer has huge upside. JT Chargois and Nick Burdi have the biggest upsides, and are both very nearly ready. Jake Reed is close to that level as well. Mason Melotakis has a huge upside, is left-handed, and now just needs to work some innings. He may not be down long. And, Taylor Rogers in a low-leverage situation where he can go 1-2 innings, or just go against left-handers, can be very good. That is list of six guys who may be ready in 2016. We thought some of them would be ready in 2015, and they weren’t. It’s possible that they won’t be again in 2016. If not, that shows bigger issues in the organization that likely need to be addressed. The talent is there, and they need to get to the big leagues. The only way to get them experience is to give them experience. That obviously starts this spring. They will take their lumps. So will veterans. So, the Twins (and fans) need to decide whether they want the lumps taken by a veteran like Matt Thornton or guys who could become the next Matt Thornton (circa 2008-2010). There is no way for the Twins (or fans) to know what the right decision is for 2016. That’s why they play the games. BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE These veteran versus high-upside, unproven talent questions happen all over the place. Consider the starting rotation. In theory, it’s possible that the Twins could decide on a rotation of Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco and Milone and let Duffey and Berrios go to Rochester. Duffey is pretty solidly penciled in to the starting rotation, but Berrios has very little chance to be on the Opening Day roster. As fans, do we want the veteran like Nolasco, who has had some measure of success in the past, or do we want to see the high-upside of Berrios? Behind the plate, do we want to see the veteran in Kurt Suzuki, or would we prefer to see John Ryan Murphy get more playing time? There’s a reason that we want the Twins to go with Byron Buxton as their center fielder from Opening Day. It isn’t a certainty that he is ready right now. It’s a confidence that his upside and potential are very high. Meanwhile a certain sect of Twins fans were disappointed when Rajai Davis signed elsewhere. Signing Davis would affect a roster spot and, more important, playing time for Buxton, or Eddie Rosario, or eventually Max Kepler. Some fans even see a scenario where trading an all-star, a proven veteran and a still-just-28-year-old Brian Dozier to make room for Jorge Polanco. In 2006, we saw the Twins sign veterans Juan Castro and Tony Batista to man the left-side of the infield. By mid-June those two were gone and Jason Bartlett and Nick Punto took over, and the team took off. That’s not to say that going with a veteran is always wrong either. On the right contract, a veteran can be great. The Twins have had plenty of success with minor league free agent signings in recent years (Jared Burton, Sam Deduno, Chris Colabello, Casey Fien, etc.). They’ve had success, at least for one year with major league signings (Phil Hughes, Josh Willingham). They’ve had failures with free agent signings too (Lamb, Nolasco, etc). Unfortunately in baseball, played by people as it is, there is no way to guarantee what kind of performance you will get from any player, veteran, or rookie. In 1991, the Twins signed Jack Morris, who wasn’t very good the two previous seasons in Detroit. They could have gone with the young guy with upside, like David West or something. They signed veteran Chili Davis rather than going with someone like Paul Sorrento. A year earlier, they had traded prospects for an upper-30s Bert Blyleven, and they re-acquired a long-time veteran Roy Smalley. I guess they were bringing back the gang, right? So what is the 'right' strategy, and can the answer to that question change? In other words, was the answer different during the 90-loss seasons than in 2016 when the team is expecting to compete for a playoff berth? We are two games into spring training. Opening Day is a month away. A lot of decisions will be made. Some will prove right. Some will prove wrong. But will the philosophy be to go with veterans, or will it be to go with youth and talent? My guess is that it will be a little of both. The important thing after making those Opening Day roster decisions, will be how quickly changes will be made.
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Article: TD Top Prospects: #2 Jose Berrios
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, I guess I was differentiating ceiling from right now. Ceiling - no question that Berrios's ceiling is the highest. Right now - it's a maybe, but he'd have to do it. -
I think Perkins is set to have a full, successful season. Obviously there's no way to know that, but he made some changes this offseason. He told me that he stayed in Florida all but around the holidays and has been working out daily with a trainer. However, he also said at the time of the extension that would be it. If the Twins picked up the option, he'd take it. Otherwise, that is is. When I talked to him one-on-one at Twins Fest, he reiterated that point. He's got a couple of daughters that are just slightly younger than mine. He said it was harder being away from them this offseason, but it's what he needed to do. That's when he stressed again that he would be done after this contract. He told me that when he came up, he talked with Brad Radke. He said, Radke could have kept pitching if he wanted, likely after a surgery, and made a lot more money. But he wanted to enjoy being a dad, and Perkins said he really took that to heart. I think that's commendable because a guy with his track record, left-handed, could stick around into his 40s if he wanted to. I think he's being truthful. Obviously he can change his mind if he wants.
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Article: TD Top Prospects: #2 Jose Berrios
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I apologize for cutting your posting to just a sentence, maybe part of a sentence, but I have just one thing to add to this... That sentence is true short-term... like, right now. He right now has the highest upside of them all. I think some (maybe me?) might argue that he could be the best of them right now, or very, very soon. -
The last two weeks we have been counting down our choices for the Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects. We have now reached the top two, and each of those players has the chance to be very special major league players. The Twins drafted a young, skinny right hander named Jose Orlando Berrios with the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft. In doing so, he became the highest-drafted pitcher from Puerto Rico, a status he continues to hold. He has been the Twins minor league pitcher of the year in 2014and 2015. He is clearly the best pitching prospect the Twins have had since Francisco Liriano.Age: 21 (DOB: 5/27/94) 2015 Stats (AA/AAA): 166.1 IP, 14-5, 2.87 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 175/38 K/BB ETA: 2016 2014 Ranking:6; 2015 Ranking: 3 National Top 100 Rankings: BA: 28 | MLB: 19 | BP: 17 What's To Like I mean, how much space do I have for this section? I’ll try to keep the superlatives short and to the point. JO Berrios is good at a lot of things, so let’s get to it. What are the things that we want to see in a pitcher? For me stuff, makeup, work ethic, control and ability to miss bats are things that are important to determining what kind of potential a pitcher can have. Let’s look at those things. JO Berrios has the kind of stuff that can make him a top-of-the-rotation possibility. Want velocity? While Berrios generally sits 92-95 with the fastball he has touched 97. When he keeps it down, he can get a lot of movement on it. He has one of the more sharp-breaking curve balls that can be a swing-and-miss pitch. Finally, when it’s on, there are times when Berrios’s best pitch is his change-up. Three above average pitches that move. That’s impressive. How is his control? Well, in his career, he has walked just 2.5 per nine innings. More important, in 2015 he walked just 2.1 per nine, and those were at the highest levels of the minor leagues. It’s been quite some time since the Twins have had a starting pitcher who can miss bats and get strikeouts. Though we will find out if it translates to the big leagues, Berrios has shown the ability to do both in the minor leagues. Again, his career strikeout rate is 9.5 per nine innings. Again, he’s been even better as he’s moved up. In 2015, again, at the highest minor league levels, he averaged 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Finally, he is a very confident young man with big goals and great talent, and yet, he has found a way to remain humble. When it comes to work ethic, Berrios has it in spades. We have all seen his workout videos posted on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter very frequently. And, of course, we all started liking Berrios the night that the Twins drafted him: What's Left To Work On This section will be much shorter, and the scouts big concern about Berrios is his height. At 6-0, many scouts will say that his pitches, particularly up in the zone, will have a flatter plane. In theory, that could make it more hittable, and make him a candidate to give up some home runs. To be fair, he has not given up very many in the minor leagues. He’s probably been able to get away with some high fastballs in the minor leagues that he won’t be able to get away with in the big leagues. I wouldn’t call it a concern, but it certainly is something that warrants observing. Earlier in the week, Berrios was throwing live batting practice to Miguel Sano. From various reports, within two or three pitches, Torii Hunter found that Berrios was tipping his pitches. It’s easily correctable, by just not doing what he was doing, so probably not a large concern. While he is just 6-0 and 185 pounds, he is very strong, and to this point has been durable. Some may be concerned about innings catching up with him and durability. To this point there has been no issue. What's Next JO Berrios will pitch for the Twins in 2016. It’s going to happen. In fact, he could be considered, along with Byung Ho Park and Byron Buxton (and maybe Max Kepler) a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year. The big question is not if he will be called up. It is just when, and there is room for a few opinions on that. Though Berrios, and most Twins fans and probably Twins players and coaches, wanted him to make his big league debut in 2015 the Twins chose to end his season at AAA with over 166 innings pitched. The Twins have some decisions to make this spring. Talent-wise, he is likely one of the five best pitchers in the organization and should be in the rotation. However, there are several factors which make it likely that he will begin the season in AAA. The first is that the team has seven competent big league starters who will likely get the first shot. While the Twins typically have not played the service time issue at the beginning of the season, there are reasons that it may make sense. There are really three timelines for the Twins to call up Berrios: Opening Day - It isn’t hard to envision Berrios being one of the best pitchers during spring and earning an opening day roster spot. Again with the Twins, that matters and if they think he’s ready, he’ll be up.13 days into the season - We have called it the Kris Bryant rule. If the Twins wait 13 days to call up Berrios, they will get an extra year before he can become a free agent. Specifically, if the Twins have him make two starts in AAA before they call him up in 2016, they can get 32-33 starts from him in 2022, his age 28 season. Maybe the system will change, but that’s a trade-off I would make 100 out of 100 times. Yes, he would get four years of arbitration (assuming he stays up), but he would not become a free agent for an extra year.Early June - if you want to stay away from his likelihood of being a Super-2 and getting four years of arbitration, they can wait until sometime around the first week of June when that deadline typically is. Not a bad strategy if the Twins are getting strong starts from their Opening Day starters, but if he’s pitching as well as we would expect, two months is just two long to wait.So you decide. What would you do? What will the Twins do? What should the Twins do? Be sure to check back tomorrow when we unveil our choice for Minnesota Twins Top Prospect. TD Top Prospect #10: Nick Burdi TD Top Prospect #9: Kohl Stewart TD Top Prospect #8: Alex Meyer TD Top Prospect #7: Jorge Polanco TD Top Prospect #6: Stephen Gonsalves TD Top Prospect #5: Tyler Jay TD Top Prospect #4: Nick Gordon Click here to view the article
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Age: 21 (DOB: 5/27/94) 2015 Stats (AA/AAA): 166.1 IP, 14-5, 2.87 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 175/38 K/BB ETA: 2016 2014 Ranking: 6; 2015 Ranking: 3 National Top 100 Rankings: BA: 28 | MLB: 19 | BP: 17 What's To Like I mean, how much space do I have for this section? I’ll try to keep the superlatives short and to the point. JO Berrios is good at a lot of things, so let’s get to it. What are the things that we want to see in a pitcher? For me stuff, makeup, work ethic, control and ability to miss bats are things that are important to determining what kind of potential a pitcher can have. Let’s look at those things. JO Berrios has the kind of stuff that can make him a top-of-the-rotation possibility. Want velocity? While Berrios generally sits 92-95 with the fastball he has touched 97. When he keeps it down, he can get a lot of movement on it. He has one of the more sharp-breaking curve balls that can be a swing-and-miss pitch. Finally, when it’s on, there are times when Berrios’s best pitch is his change-up. Three above average pitches that move. That’s impressive. How is his control? Well, in his career, he has walked just 2.5 per nine innings. More important, in 2015 he walked just 2.1 per nine, and those were at the highest levels of the minor leagues. It’s been quite some time since the Twins have had a starting pitcher who can miss bats and get strikeouts. Though we will find out if it translates to the big leagues, Berrios has shown the ability to do both in the minor leagues. Again, his career strikeout rate is 9.5 per nine innings. Again, he’s been even better as he’s moved up. In 2015, again, at the highest minor league levels, he averaged 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Finally, he is a very confident young man with big goals and great talent, and yet, he has found a way to remain humble. When it comes to work ethic, Berrios has it in spades. We have all seen his workout videos posted on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter very frequently. And, of course, we all started liking Berrios the night that the Twins drafted him: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8p-A5jDpHYk What's Left To Work On This section will be much shorter, and the scouts big concern about Berrios is his height. At 6-0, many scouts will say that his pitches, particularly up in the zone, will have a flatter plane. In theory, that could make it more hittable, and make him a candidate to give up some home runs. To be fair, he has not given up very many in the minor leagues. He’s probably been able to get away with some high fastballs in the minor leagues that he won’t be able to get away with in the big leagues. I wouldn’t call it a concern, but it certainly is something that warrants observing. Earlier in the week, Berrios was throwing live batting practice to Miguel Sano. From various reports, within two or three pitches, Torii Hunter found that Berrios was tipping his pitches. It’s easily correctable, by just not doing what he was doing, so probably not a large concern. While he is just 6-0 and 185 pounds, he is very strong, and to this point has been durable. Some may be concerned about innings catching up with him and durability. To this point there has been no issue. What's Next JO Berrios will pitch for the Twins in 2016. It’s going to happen. In fact, he could be considered, along with Byung Ho Park and Byron Buxton (and maybe Max Kepler) a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year. The big question is not if he will be called up. It is just when, and there is room for a few opinions on that. Though Berrios, and most Twins fans and probably Twins players and coaches, wanted him to make his big league debut in 2015 the Twins chose to end his season at AAA with over 166 innings pitched. The Twins have some decisions to make this spring. Talent-wise, he is likely one of the five best pitchers in the organization and should be in the rotation. However, there are several factors which make it likely that he will begin the season in AAA. The first is that the team has seven competent big league starters who will likely get the first shot. While the Twins typically have not played the service time issue at the beginning of the season, there are reasons that it may make sense. There are really three timelines for the Twins to call up Berrios: Opening Day - It isn’t hard to envision Berrios being one of the best pitchers during spring and earning an opening day roster spot. Again with the Twins, that matters and if they think he’s ready, he’ll be up. 13 days into the season - We have called it the Kris Bryant rule. If the Twins wait 13 days to call up Berrios, they will get an extra year before he can become a free agent. Specifically, if the Twins have him make two starts in AAA before they call him up in 2016, they can get 32-33 starts from him in 2022, his age 28 season. Maybe the system will change, but that’s a trade-off I would make 100 out of 100 times. Yes, he would get four years of arbitration (assuming he stays up), but he would not become a free agent for an extra year. Early June - if you want to stay away from his likelihood of being a Super-2 and getting four years of arbitration, they can wait until sometime around the first week of June when that deadline typically is. Not a bad strategy if the Twins are getting strong starts from their Opening Day starters, but if he’s pitching as well as we would expect, two months is just two long to wait. So you decide. What would you do? What will the Twins do? What should the Twins do? Be sure to check back tomorrow when we unveil our choice for Minnesota Twins Top Prospect. TD Top Prospect #10: Nick Burdi TD Top Prospect #9: Kohl Stewart TD Top Prospect #8: Alex Meyer TD Top Prospect #7: Jorge Polanco TD Top Prospect #6: Stephen Gonsalves TD Top Prospect #5: Tyler Jay TD Top Prospect #4: Nick Gordon
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Article: TD Top Prospects: #4 Nick Gordon
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
OK, it's the 8th thing mentioned, and again, when asked about Gordon, it's impossible not to at least mention. It's not a negative and it would be naive to think there are no advantaged to having a dad and a brother who have been there. But, I would pay much more attention to the "ability to play SS," "He's offensive," "really good swing" "stay at shortstop" "great work ethic" "great kid" first... -
Article: TD Top Prospects: #4 Nick Gordon
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm sorry, people, but it's impossible to write up a profile about Nick Gordon without mentioning his family. It doesn't mean that he isn't a prospect in his own right. The Twins wouldn't have taken him with the 5th overall pick just because of his bloodlines. But it is the reality. How much does it help Nick? On the field, probably none. Off the field, probably a little bit. Just because he's got bloodlines doesn't mean that he isn't going to goo through everything that most high school draftees go though. He's just pushed a level (or two) higher than most his age. -
I'll agree with Jeremy's opinion that although both of these could make some sense in the right scenario, neither makes sense to do at this point. If the Twins let Suzuki go, he could probably be signed after the season as a free agent for less than $2 million if they really want to. With Dozier, I'm agreement with others. Last year, it would have made some sense to add a year or so, but now they've got a good deal. No need to add to it three years too early.
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Article: 5 Must-Watch Storylines At Spring Training
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins have been very, very clear that they want Byron Buxton to be the starting CF from opening day. They've said that many, many times. I think as long as he doesn't look completely lost at the plate this spring, he'll be the guy there.- 27 replies
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Article: TD Top Prospects: #4 Nick Gordon
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Just spit-balling here and doing this quickly, but the comp of the SS is interesting to me. So, I want to try considering their current and future tools in chart form. Current/Future: ==========Hit (avg)....Hit (power)...Plate Approach Gordon-------------3/1............ 2/1.................1/1 Polanco------------2/2.............1/2.................1/2 Vielma--------------4/4.............4/4.................2/3 Palacios------------1/3.............3/3.................4/4 Current/Future: ==========Defense.........Arm...........Speed Gordon-------------2/2...............1/1...............1/2 Polanco------------3/3.............. 4/4...............3/3 Vielma--------------1/1...............2/2................2/1 Palacios------------4/4...............3/3................4/4 A little less variability in the second grouping. I switched Gordon and Vielma because I think Gordon will get a little bigger. I don't think he'll get any slower, but Vielma's going to be a little quicker. Projection is obviously difficult, and some of this is obviously guessing, but it's based on seeing them, etc. But maybe a chart like this better illustrates my thoughts/comps on the four of these guys. It's difficult to do because they're all young for their level, but they're all at different stages of their career and at different levels. -
Article: TD Top Prospects: #4 Nick Gordon
Seth Stohs replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agree with those who say that Genetics plays zero part. Like I wrote, it guarantees nothing, but genetics matter. Opportunity matters. Now he's got to go out and make his own name. As others have mentioned... if he's projected to be a MLB shortstop who can be at least an average hitter, that is hugely valuable... Be sure to check out Cody's Floor-To-Ceiling article too, but I think he could easily be compared to Barry Larkin. Obviously Larkin was still at Michigan when he was Gordon's age, but Larkin was solid across the board. Solid MLB shortstop defensively and solid across the board offensively without any elite tools. Obviously putting the ceiling comp at a Hall of Famer isn't fair to anyone. Just saying I see a lot of similarities. As people like to point out, as a guy with zero games above Low A, his floor could be a High-A utility guy. But, I think there are enough tools, talents, and mental makeup to think he can be at least an MLB infielder. -
I guess if we need to try to find a positive in those 90-loss seasons, it could be that the Twins had a top five pick three years in a row. With each of those three picks, the Minnesota Twins chose a high school player in the June draft. In 2014, the Twins selected Orlando prep shortstop Nick Gordon with the fifth pick. Blessed with terrific tools, Gordon has had a solid - though unspectacular - start to his professional career. Reports on his potential remain high.Last week, we posted a Q&A with pitching prospect Dereck Rodriguez. In it, he talked about growing up and spending a lot of time in a big league clubhouse. The same is true for Nick Gordon. His father, Tom (Flash) Gordon, spent 22 seasons in the big leagues. His brother, Dee Gordon, is an all-star with the Miami Marlins. Of course, having big league bloodlines is nice, but it certainly doesn’t guarantee any future big league success. That will be up to Nick himself and his development. There are a lot of reasons for optimism. Age: 20 (DOB: 10/24/95) 2015 Stats (Low-A): .277/.336/.360 (.696) with 23 doubles, seven triples, one homer ETA: 2018 2015 Ranking: 6 National Top 100 Rankings: BA: 53 | MLB: 91 | BP: 62 What's To Like Let’s get the bloodlines out of the way. While it’s clear that simply being the son and/or brother of a big leaguer guarantees absolutely nothing, it can’t and shouldn’t be ignored in the scouting world. Genetics play a part. However, arguably the most important benefit of having a big league dad and/or brother is that the player has someone to talk to who has likely experienced everything. In Gordon’s case, he has a calm, a poise and a confidence about him. He likely won’t be overwhelmed by the stage or various situations. With a 20-year-old, it’s much more about the tools than the numbers. At 6-0 and 175 pounds, Gordon continues to gain strength. While he won’t be a 25-30 home run hitter, he could hit 12-15 a season in time. Gordon has a good approach at the plate, willing to take a lot of pitches. He also has one of those left-handed swings that reminds us that left-handers have some sweet swings. He uses the whole field. He isn’t as fast as his brother, but he has very good speed and runs the bases well. His overall numbers were solid considering his age in the Midwest League. He began the season by hitting .417/.481/.583 (1.065) in the first six games. He proceeded to go through a five week slump. In those 30 games, he hit just .185/.233/.203 (.434). However, of the final 84 games of the Kernels season, he hit .299/.361/.399 (.760). What does that show? He had the wherewithal to overcome his struggles. He made some adjustments to the league and put together some very solid numbers over the final three-and-a-half months of the season. Most believe that Gordon has the defensive abilities to stay at shortstop. He has had .964 and .966 fielding percentages in his first two professional seasons. In other words he makes the routine plays. However, he has very good range and a very strong arm. He can make the plays deep in the hole or right up the middle and has the arm to make all of the throws. People also talked about the leadership that he is able to provide the defense, not only the infielders but the outfielders as well. Despite being significantly younger than the competition and his teammates, he was touted for his leadership and for being a really good teammate. What's Left To Work On As a 20-year-old in Class A, I could use the blanket statement that he still needs to work on everything. That is equal parts cliche and accurate. Gordon is not a finished project. He needs time and he needs plate appearances. Pending health, he is going to get those opportunities. He will bat in the top two or three spots in his lineup all the time, playing almost every day. First and foremost, Gordon needs to get bigger and stronger. He had 23 doubles and seven triples, but he has had just one home run in each of his two seasons. The belief is that as he matures and gains weight and strength, he will add more power, including some home run power. His walk rate increased from just 4.3% at Elizabethon in 2014 to 7.3% in Cedar Rapids in 2015. That is a number that would ideally continue to increase and get close to the 10% range. Against right-handers Gordon hit .280/.339/.380 (.719) with 28 of his 31 extra base hits. Against left-handers, he hit just .264/.325/.291 (.616). While his batting average and on-base percentage were fairly similar, he just didn’t make as much solid contact against southpaws. What's Next A solid 19-year-old season in the Midwest League, especially with such a strong finish to his season, indicates that Gordon will start the 2016 season in the Florida State League with the Miracle. It will be most important to see how his walk rate and strikeout rate look after the 2016 season. The FSL is a tough league for hitters, especially for home runs. So, don’t expect his home run power to show up in 2016. Do expect him to spend the entire season with the Miracle. Defensively, with calling the Hammond Stadium infield home, he should put up some very good numbers. Be sure to check back tomorrow when we unveil our choice for Twins Prospect #3. TD Top Prospect #10: Nick Burdi TD Top Prospect #9: Kohl Stewart TD Top Prospect #8: Alex Meyer TD Top Prospect #7: Jorge Polanco TD Top Prospect #6: Stephen Gonsalves TD Top Prospect #5: Tyler Jay TD Top Prospect #4: Nick Gordon TD Top Prospects #3-#1: Check Back! Click here to view the article
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Last week, we posted a Q&A with pitching prospect Dereck Rodriguez. In it, he talked about growing up and spending a lot of time in a big league clubhouse. The same is true for Nick Gordon. His father, Tom (Flash) Gordon, spent 22 seasons in the big leagues. His brother, Dee Gordon, is an all-star with the Miami Marlins. Of course, having big league bloodlines is nice, but it certainly doesn’t guarantee any future big league success. That will be up to Nick himself and his development. There are a lot of reasons for optimism. Age: 20 (DOB: 10/24/95) 2015 Stats (Low-A): .277/.336/.360 (.696) with 23 doubles, seven triples, one homer ETA: 2018 2015 Ranking: 6 National Top 100 Rankings: BA: 53 | MLB: 91 | BP: 62 What's To Like Let’s get the bloodlines out of the way. While it’s clear that simply being the son and/or brother of a big leaguer guarantees absolutely nothing, it can’t and shouldn’t be ignored in the scouting world. Genetics play a part. However, arguably the most important benefit of having a big league dad and/or brother is that the player has someone to talk to who has likely experienced everything. In Gordon’s case, he has a calm, a poise and a confidence about him. He likely won’t be overwhelmed by the stage or various situations. With a 20-year-old, it’s much more about the tools than the numbers. At 6-0 and 175 pounds, Gordon continues to gain strength. While he won’t be a 25-30 home run hitter, he could hit 12-15 a season in time. Gordon has a good approach at the plate, willing to take a lot of pitches. He also has one of those left-handed swings that reminds us that left-handers have some sweet swings. He uses the whole field. He isn’t as fast as his brother, but he has very good speed and runs the bases well. His overall numbers were solid considering his age in the Midwest League. He began the season by hitting .417/.481/.583 (1.065) in the first six games. He proceeded to go through a five week slump. In those 30 games, he hit just .185/.233/.203 (.434). However, of the final 84 games of the Kernels season, he hit .299/.361/.399 (.760). What does that show? He had the wherewithal to overcome his struggles. He made some adjustments to the league and put together some very solid numbers over the final three-and-a-half months of the season. Most believe that Gordon has the defensive abilities to stay at shortstop. He has had .964 and .966 fielding percentages in his first two professional seasons. In other words he makes the routine plays. However, he has very good range and a very strong arm. He can make the plays deep in the hole or right up the middle and has the arm to make all of the throws. People also talked about the leadership that he is able to provide the defense, not only the infielders but the outfielders as well. Despite being significantly younger than the competition and his teammates, he was touted for his leadership and for being a really good teammate. What's Left To Work On As a 20-year-old in Class A, I could use the blanket statement that he still needs to work on everything. That is equal parts cliche and accurate. Gordon is not a finished project. He needs time and he needs plate appearances. Pending health, he is going to get those opportunities. He will bat in the top two or three spots in his lineup all the time, playing almost every day. First and foremost, Gordon needs to get bigger and stronger. He had 23 doubles and seven triples, but he has had just one home run in each of his two seasons. The belief is that as he matures and gains weight and strength, he will add more power, including some home run power. His walk rate increased from just 4.3% at Elizabethon in 2014 to 7.3% in Cedar Rapids in 2015. That is a number that would ideally continue to increase and get close to the 10% range. Against right-handers Gordon hit .280/.339/.380 (.719) with 28 of his 31 extra base hits. Against left-handers, he hit just .264/.325/.291 (.616). While his batting average and on-base percentage were fairly similar, he just didn’t make as much solid contact against southpaws. What's Next A solid 19-year-old season in the Midwest League, especially with such a strong finish to his season, indicates that Gordon will start the 2016 season in the Florida State League with the Miracle. It will be most important to see how his walk rate and strikeout rate look after the 2016 season. The FSL is a tough league for hitters, especially for home runs. So, don’t expect his home run power to show up in 2016. Do expect him to spend the entire season with the Miracle. Defensively, with calling the Hammond Stadium infield home, he should put up some very good numbers. Be sure to check back tomorrow when we unveil our choice for Twins Prospect #3. TD Top Prospect #10: Nick Burdi TD Top Prospect #9: Kohl Stewart TD Top Prospect #8: Alex Meyer TD Top Prospect #7: Jorge Polanco TD Top Prospect #6: Stephen Gonsalves TD Top Prospect #5: Tyler Jay TD Top Prospect #4: Nick Gordon TD Top Prospects #3-#1: Check Back!
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Article: TD Top Prospects: #7 Jorge Polanco
Seth Stohs replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
According to the Twins Prospect Handbook, had Polanco not not spent time in the DSL before joining the GCL in 2010, he could have had a fourth option. So, he's got just 2016 remaining.- 53 replies
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Article: TD Top Prospects: #7 Jorge Polanco
Seth Stohs replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Completely agree. Very well said.- 53 replies
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Article: TD Top Prospects: #7 Jorge Polanco
Seth Stohs replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Polanco is out of options after the 2016 season, so they have to make a decision on him by the start of next season... they'll need to make a decision on Plouffe in July and at the end of the year and, and... Vielma will be at AA, and Gordon at High-A... So, it will be very interesting to see how it plays out.- 53 replies
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Article: TD Top Prospects: #7 Jorge Polanco
Seth Stohs replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Depth is good. Plus, he's only played in 22 AAA games, so it isn't hurting him to spend time there. There are sometimes injuries and other things. He'll get more opportunities.- 53 replies
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Article: Early Camp Tidbits
Seth Stohs replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agreed... a late-inning reliever with 3 strong pitches should be incredible... No harm in trying it! If he can go: FB at 97-100, SL at 88-91, and split-finger at 82-84... just work!

