Seth Stohs

Why would Ryan say anything about the previous years when he was, I assume, asked about the lack of strikeouts last year?

Show us you can beat Vegas and you can win a Harry’s Razor starter kit! They entered last year with serious questions and ended the year with serious momentum. A trade deadline acquisition of Cole Hamels ignited them and propelled them over both Houston and Los Angeles to win 88 games and the AL West.Vegas’ Line: 84.5 wins What The Line Is Saying "You're good, partly because the rest of the division looks shaky. But you're going to be passed by the Astros this year." They’ll Beat Vegas If… They continue to hit the snot out of the ball. Yeah, their ballpark helped raise them to third best in the American League in runs scored, but the veterans who were supposed to carry the offense (Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre) just plain raked too. If you beat Vegas, you can win a free Harry’s Razor starter set. Just leave a comment with your choice of the “Over” or” Under” and your reasoning. At the end of the season, for each team, we’ll randomly pick one of the winning predictions for a free Truman Razor set. They’ll Lose To Vegas If… Just a year ago, Vegas thought this was a 76.5 win team, as they looked old and like their competitive window was closing. Now most of their hitters are a year older and their big addition is 32-year-old Cole Hamels. If the veterans age, Hamels regresses and the youngsters don't jump right in, there is plenty of room for this team to fade. I’ll Bet The…. OVER Last year's second half finish was more indicative of the level of this team than their first half mediocrity. Plus, the rest of the division, with the exception of the Astros, could fade fast. Now it’s your turn. Give us your prediction in the comment section (you’ll need to register first) and you’re automatically entered. We’ll be giving out a free Harry’s Razor Truman Set to one of the winning correct predictions for each team, so we’ll be give away 15 sets of razors! You can also click over to Harry’s Razors and get $5 off on your first order using the promo code ‘gleeman’. Click here to view the article

The offseason was spent assuming that the Twins would trade Trevor Plouffe to open up third base for Miguel Sano. There wasn’t much market for third basemen this offseason. The White Sox didn’t give up much to acquire All-Star Todd Frazier. The A’s return for Brett Lawrie was minimal. David Freese was still available two weeks ago. So, the Twins kept Plouffe and he will man third base for at least one more season. In 2015, the Minnesota Twins third basemen were 25th in MLB in batting average (.246) and 22nd in on-base percentage (.309), 14th in slugging percentage (.434) and 16th in OPS (.743). Twins third basemen were also 14th in runs scored, 15th in doubles, ninth in home runs and fourth in RBI. Plouffe played in a career-high 152 games last year. He hit .244/.307/.435 (.742) with 35 doubles, 22 home runs and 86 RBI.I think those numbers all indicate that Trevor Plouffe is a middle-of-the-pack offensive third baseman right now. In 2015, he was a 2.5 win player. A year earlier, he was 3.9 bWAR. Over the last four years, he’s been a 9.3 bWAR player. Plouffe will turn 30 in mid-June. At $7.25 million in 2016, Plouffe is a bargain yet. 2016 is his third year of arbitration. He will have a fourth arbitration season in 2017. KEY NUMBERS 18 and 38 - In 2012, Plouffe was playing all around the diamond. Danny Valencia, who had a strong rookie season in 2011 was off to a slow start, so manager Ron Gardenhire turned over the reins at third base to Plouffe. He was out of options and on May 14th, he was 0-3 to drop his batting average to .133. He didn’t play the next game, but on May 16th, he was 1-5 with a home run.Over the next 37 games, he hit 17 more home runs. In fact, over one seven game stretch, he had seven home runs. He and Josh WIllingham were going back and forth with each other. It was incredible. Plouffe has not had a power run like that since, but what he has done is been much more consistent throughout his seasons. An ideal situation might have been Plouffe being consistent all season but having that one stretch, preferably later in the year, in which he showed a display of power for an extended period of time and carried the team’s offense. 28 - Plouffe had never grounded into more than 12 double plays in a season. Last year, he led the league with 28. He was trailed by Robinson Cano, Billy Butler, Kendrys Morales and Salvador Perez. Each year, the statistic is led by some really good hitters. Why? They often hit in the middle of the order, with runners on. They typically hit the ball hard which creates some easy double play opportunities. While many choose to make a big deal of it, it really shouldn’t be.Prior to Plouffe leading the AL in GIDP in 2015, the previous six AL leaders were Albert Pujols, Billy Butler (twice), Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, and Evan Longoria. So the next time someone makes a big deal out of Plouffe (or Mauer) and their double plays, the proper response is, “Who Cares?” PREDICTIONS Trevor Plouffe: 604 At-bats, .252/.314/.442 (.756), 38 doubles, one triple, 25 home runs. These types of numbers are just slightly better than Plouffe’s career average. He has been pretty consistent with his season OPS, and has hit a lot of doubles. The 25 home runs would be one more than his high from 2012 and three more than a year ago. YOUR TURN Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Trevor Plouffe in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did. PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy Joe Mauer Brian Dozier Click here to view the article

Yeah, they've always had that rule... Seeing Aaron Thompson there a day or two after he got sent down at minor league camp was shocking with him all clean-shaven.

First factor should have no bearing. Regarding Plouffe in the OF... that was about 5-6 years ago, and it wasn't very much, and there's a reason that he was quickly moved back to the infield. I should have said, "Of the options that they have on the roster to move to RF, Sano was the logical choice." But you're right, it's an old topic. They're going to go with it. As Nick said, the Twins aren't under some illusion that it's going to be pretty all the time. They know he's a great athlete, with decent speed and a strong arm, who is young, and that his bat being in the lineup is #1."

I don't see that as an issue at all, and neither should they. People often say, What if he gets hurt playing in the outfield? Well, he has been hurt a few times playing 3B, so unless they just DH him, then it's just a call they had to make.

Holy Weird Stat which tells us pretty much nothing. Ha! Is that in the big leagues or is that spring training? Because O'Rourke only has like a half-season. Runtzler was up a bit, but that was about 4-5 years ago. Just saw the later comment when you mentioned it was for the Spring. Then I'd say that it's also not too strong of a stat because they can only face the batters they're sent in to face. That's up to the manager, and the plan for the day.

Sano is faster. He's a better athlete. Any issue that Sano is having out in RF, Plouffe would too. Plouffe is a better 3B. They want Sano to stay in shape. Sano has the better arm. Easy choice really.

It wouldn't be close.

He won't be released, but he would go on waivers. It'd be interesting to see if he gets claimed. I would think someone might, and that's fine. If he isn't claimed, he can go to Rochester.

As we continue to work our way around the diamond, today we arrive at second base where Brian Dozier has played for the Twins the last three seasons. After being selected by Jose Bautista for the 2014 Home Run Derby at Target Field, he was named an all-star in 2015. He even got into the game and homered off of NL saves leader Mark Melancon. In 2015, the Minnesota Twins second basemen were 25th in MLB in batting average (.237) and 18th in on-base percentage (.308), but 2nd in slugging percentage (.447) and 6th in OPS (.755). Twins second basemen scored more runs (105) than second basemen from other teams. The 29 home runs that the Twins got from second base were eight more than any other organization.Obviously Brian Dozier accounted for most of the production. The 28-year-old played in 157 games and hit .236/.307/.444 (.751) with 28 home runs, 101 runs scored and 77 RBI. He also had career-highs in hits, doubles, triples, home runs and RBIs. It is also well documented that Dozier has been much better before the All-Star break than after it the last couple of years. In 2015, he hit .256/.328/.513 (.841) in the first 88 games of the season. In 69 games after the All-Star break, he hit .210/.280/.359 (.639). As Nick wrote yesterday, Dozier doesn’t see it as a big deal. He said there are other ways to help the team win and that’s what’s important to him. Dozier will take on more of a leadership role in the clubhouse in 2016 after learning a lot from Torii Hunter a year ago. While Jorge Polanco waits in the wings for an opportunity at any of the infield positions, pending good health Dozier will get at least 95% of the starts at second base again in 2016. He’s having another terrific spring training and hopes to build on his all-star performance in 2015. KEY NUMBERS 148 - Along with his other career-high stats in 2015, Dozier also set the Minnesota Twins record with 148 strikeouts, topping Bobby Darwin’s 145 strikeouts in 1972. Nick’s article also talked about Dozier working with Brunansky on covering the whole plate, maybe fouling off more two-strike pitches or possibly slapping some singles to the opposite field. PREDICTIONS Brian Dozier: 596 At-bats, .255/.342/.457 (.799), 35 doubles, two triples, 26 home runs. I think that we will see Dozier be more consistent throughout the entire season. If he can put up his first half numbers all season, he will easily be the top second baseman in baseball, and likely receive a lot of MVP votes. Possible? Sure. I think Dozier, the Twins, and Twins fans will be happy with him being really good for two halves. YOUR TURN Now it’s your turn. Share your thoughts on and projections on Brian Dozier in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did. PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy Joe Mauer Click here to view the article

Molitor said as much about his ability to play OF last week when I was there. Basically said that his body has just been so beaten up over the years that playing the outfield isn't really realistic at this stage. It was good to get him out there to verify, but I don't see a scenario where it makes sense.

Another strong Notes column, Nick! The Quentin thing is interesting. I really think that agents, scouts and players generally have a ton of respect for the Twins organization, and specifically the front office. I spent a little time chatting with Antony by the minor league fields one day. Just a nice chat, but from it, you can glean a lot. People have a ton of respect for him in his contract dealings. Players, agents, they really respect how the Twins choose to pay pre-arbitration players. They are able to get guys like this on "gentlemen's agreements." As it relates to Quentin, it will be very interesting. I can't see a scenario where it makes any sense whatsoever to have him on the roster over Arcia or probably Sweeney. That said, I think he's had a solid enough camp that I could see him chatting with Ryan and Antony and Molitor at the end of camp. I can see them telling him that he isn't making the team, but they like what he showed. They don't see a "clear path" for him to get to the big leagues (meaning, they can't promise anything). I can see them telling him they would love for him to be at Rochester and play most every day because if he keeps producing, they could definitely see him coming up. But I can also see them telling him and his agent to feel free to talk to other organizations before reporting. Maybe there's a gentleman's agreement saying that team can't or won't be in the AL Central, but if he finds someone who has an MLB job available, they will let him go. If he doesn't find that, let them know and he can head to Rochester, still having that June 1 opt-out. I'm purely speculating, but I could easily see that type of scenario playing out.

Good photos... you even cropped the photo of me, and I appreciate it! HA!

Maybe, but I think others should make their predictions as well, and we can check them all at the end of the year.

It was two situations that Twins fans are familiar with. There are obviously many more samples, but that would make a much, much longer article and it won't help or hurt make any point because they're all different.

Yup, and that's why it's called a prediction. There's no way to know. There's no science to guessing the future of a person. They're guesses based on looking at numbers, talking to the person, the people around him, looking at other factors and then guessing.

But it's all part of it, and the biggest thing to note is that is does affect everyone differently, so there is no way to know how anyone will recover, if or when.

My initial thought was that Park would play 1B with Vargas at DH, but since Kepler is still in camp, I could see Kepler getting the nod at 1B with Park staying at DH. That's if it was at the very start of the season. Either of those two would work.

Yup, so the difference really is 0.020 points of batting average which moves the OPS up by 0.040. I think that's about one single ever 3 weeks difference.

I like Dozier's (and Brunansky's) point about covering more of the plate, sometimes meaning just fouling off a tough pitch instead of striking out. Extending plate appearances will definitely help in the long-run.

That's a good point... one defensive option and one power bat option for the bench. And yeah, Mastroianni is definitely nothing to be excited about, but he is still in camp and doing well. We know what he is... defense and base running. Sweeney and Quentin didn't play in 2015 either. And, at least Mastroianni, unlike Bartlett, is actually a good outfielder. But I think the odds of it being anyone but Santana and Arcia are pretty low. At least to start the season.

Yesterday, I posted my projections for the 2016 Minnesota Twins catchers, Kurt Suzuki and John Ryan Murphy. Today, we move to first base where Joe Mauer will again be the primary option. Byung Ho Park will also get some time at first base, though he’ll be the designated hitter most days. We’ll post his projections later. In his third season back from a concussion, what do we expect from Joe Mauer in 2016?In 2015, the Minnesota Twins first basemen were 14th in MLB in batting average (.265), 14th in on-base percentage (.334), 28th in slugging percentage (.392) and 25th in OPS (.726). While Joe Mauer played a career-high 158 games, it was the least productive offensive season of his career. On August 19th, 2013, Joe Mauer was hitting .324/.404/.476 (.880). He was on a 7-game hitting streak during which he had 14 hits and reached base 16 times. And that’s when he took the foul tips off the face mask and his season ended. It’s been clear ever since that things have not been clear for Mauer. That includes his vision which he admitted last month has been off at times. Not that the news was surprising, that’s ‘normal’ with a concussion, but it was the first time that Mauer had really acknowledged it publicly. Consider Justin Morneau’s concussion. It was midseason 2010 when he slid into second in Toronto and John McDonald’s knee impacted Morneau’s head. Morneau missed the rest of that season and half of the 2011 season when he posted a .618 OPS. In 2012, he hit .265 (.773 OPS). In 2013, he hit .259 (.734 OPS). Then he went to Colorado and won a batting title. In 2014, he hit .319 with an .860 OPS). In 2015, he was limited to just 49 games with another concussion, but he was hitting .310 at the time. Denard Span was hitting .294/.361/.385 when he had his concussion. After missing two months, he returned and went 2-35, dropping his numbers to .263/.331/.342. It took him two years to get back to “normal” but he has hit over .300 the last two years and his strikeout to walk ratio has been more like his pre-concussion days. Obviously those are two examples of players who came back strong three years after their concussions, but there is no magic formula when it comes to predicting anything about brain injuries. Mauer is now entering his 13th big league season with the Twins. He will turn 33 years old in a month. Ten of those seasons were as a potential Hall of Fame catcher, and the last two have been at first base. He is entering his third season after the concussion, so there is reason to believe that he can be better again in 2016. Or maybe that is me just being optimistic. With Byung Ho Park around, Mauer should be able to get a game or two a week at DH. We know that Mauer wants to play as often as possible, but 158 games from last year may have been too much. An occasional day off might be beneficial. Kennys Vargas is the backup option for first base and designated hitter. He’ll need to just play in Rochester and wait for an opportunity. KEY NUMBERS 1 - .394 and .338 - Mauer’s career on-base percentage dropped to .394 after his career-low .338 OBP in 2015. 2 - The place that he should hit in the Minnesota Twins lineup: There is no reason for Mauer to be hitting third in the lineup anymore. That said, the .338 on-base percentage was second to only Miguel Sano on the Twins roster in 2015. He is still an ideal top-of-the-order hitter because of his ability to get on base and take quality at bats. PROJECTIONS Joe Mauer: 557 At-bats, .294/.363/.426 (.789), 33 doubles, one triple, 13 home runs. I don’t think it’s fair to think that Mauer, at 33, will get back to what he was pre-concussion. He’s three years older and still has all those innings behind the plate on his legs. Also, offensive production across baseball has tumbled in the last few seasons. But, the further out from the concussion he is, the more likely he is to perform well. YOUR TURN Now it’s your turn. Share your thoughts on and projections on Joe Mauer in 2016. Click here to view the article