Seth Stohs

I'll throw out my guesses: Duffey - by about May 10th. Berrios - by about June 10th.

I would guess they'd just release Nolasco.

On Tuesday morning, the Twins made four roster moves leaving their roster at 25. The Twins optioned LH RP Ryan O'Rourke and RHP Tyler Duffey to Rochester. They also re-assigned LH RP Logan Darnell and RH RP Brandon Kintzler to minor league camp.In dropping four players and getting the spring training roster to 25, the Twins most likely have their Opening Day roster. That said, with five days until Opening Day, anything can happen. LH RP Fernando Abad has not yet been added to the Twins 40-man roster. The Twins theoretically could still take Michael Tonkin off of their 40-man roster if there is someone else they would like to add from another organization. There were a couple of big stories in today's transactions. First, Ricky Nolasco "wins" the 5th starter job. Tyler Duffey was optioned to Rochester where he will work through some things. It was clear that he would need a third pitch (probably the change-up he's been working on to be a viable long-term starter. He was asked at the beginning of spring training to work on it. He did, and he struggled. So it makes sense to send him to Rochester where he can continue to work on that pitch. But it was more than that. Duffey noted that in some games hitters were sitting on his curveball, and hitting his fastball. While fans (and in my opinion, the Twins) wanted Duffey to be in the rotation to start the season, it is clear that he needs to work through a couple of things. I expect Duffey will be back with the Twins within four to six weeks, though Jose Berrios will likely factor into the timing as well. As for Nolasco, it is my opinion that his salary got him an opportunity to be in the rotation, but it was more about Duffey's issues that allowed him to actually be in the rotation. His numbers were certainly not inspiring in spring training. Then again, he's healthy and his curveball is terrific. It would be nice if he could return to the form from his days in Miami. I don't know that I would expect it. (I wouldn't.) His leash could (and should) be short. The other possibly controversial decision is keeping Michael Tonkin on the roster. While he is out of options, he really struggled for the first month of spring training. However, he has been very good his last three or four outings. He throws 94-96 and he does have a slider that can be effective. He's certainly not a guy who you would want to lose for nothing. As their roster is currently set, the Twins really don't have any relievers who can throw more than two innings. If the starters do their job most times out, that shouldn't be an issue, but a couple of consecutive sub-four inning starts and it could create issues. Then again, they are fully capable of calling down to Rochester and calling guys up in those scenarios. Brandon Kintzler is a veteran who will go to Rochester. No word on whether he's got an opt-out at some point in the season. It does appear that Fernando Abad has made the roster. He will still need to be added to the 40-man roster before Monday. Two weeks ago, Mike Strong was removed from the 40-man roster so there is a spot. Abad is the only left-hander in the bullpen aside from closer Glen Perkins. Ryan O'Rourke and Logan Darnell had very solid camps. O'Rourke did what O'Rourke does. He gets lefties out, and did better (in the small sample) against right-handed bats. Logan Darnell would have been the options as a long-reliever. So, as of right now, the Twins Opening Day roster looks like this (subject to change): SP - Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco RP - Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Michael Tonkin, Ryan Pressly, Fernando Abad C - Kurt Suzuki, John Ryan Murphy IF - Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Byung Ho Park OF - Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana Click here to view the article

It was clear since the end of last season that the Twins brass, the manager and fans all wanted to see Byron Buxton as the Twins Opening Day centerfielder. On Saturday, it became official. When the Twins are in Baltimore next Monday, manager Paul Molitor will write Buxton’s name and the number 8 in the ninth spot of the Twins lineup. While working through all of the predictions for Twins starters in 2016, Buxton was the most difficult. There are just so many variables. How ready will he be offensively from the start? Can he get off to a fast start? Will he need to spend any more time in AAA? Can he stay healthy? Can he get on base enough to eventually slide into the leadoff spot in the lineup? Of course, that’s the beauty of spring training and Opening Day. No one knows, and that’s why it is fun to predict.Last year, Buxton started in center field 35 times for the Twins. Jordan Schafer was the center fielder to start the season, but that didn’t go well and then he got hurt. Aaron Hicks had the majority of starts in center with 87. Twins center fielders were 25th in baseball with a .243 batting average. They were 27th in on-base percentage at .296. They rank 27th in slugging percentage at .360, and their .656 OPS was 28th in the big leagues. In other words, Buxton can help the Twins team improve by more than just what he provides on defense. Buxton has been a Top 2 overall prospect each of the last three years. He was Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year in 2013 when he split the season between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. Unfortunately, 2014 was injury-filled and he was unable to really get things going. He got off to a very slow start in Chattanooga last year and was very inconsistent through the season’s first two months. The Twins had a need in center field in June when Aaron Hicks got hurt and Torii Hunter chose not to appeal his suspension. Terry Ryan called up Buxton, knowing that he wasn’t ready. Mientkiewicz told those who wanted to hear that Buxton wasn’t ready, at least not offensively. So, no surprise that he struggled, but his star shines no less bright than it did a year ago. The 23-year-old’s tools are all still intact. He continues to grow. He has always struggled at new levels, but typically he picks things up fairly quickly. It will continue to take time, but with patience, Twins fans will be thrilled to have a player like Buxton patrolling center field and potentially leading off. KEY NUMBERS 0.300 - Sure, a .300 batting average would be great, but for Buxton in 2016, I would love to see an on-base percentage above .300. He can be a huge contributor for the Twins if he can get on base 30% of the time when you factor in the defense. 16 - It’s not really a “key” number but I want to set an over-under on the number of triples Buxton has in 2016. Of course, some of that will have to do with how much playing time he gets. 16 would be one more than Eddie Rosario’s league-leading 15 from last year. It would be the most by a Twins player since Cristian Guzman’s 20 in 2000. PREDICTIONS Byron Buxton: 413 at-bats, .247/.302/.424 (.726), 18 doubles, 11 triples, 11 home runs. Because of batting ninth, and some likely struggles at times, I have Buxton with fewer at-bats than others in these lists. That said, I think we’d all be happy with a .726 OPS at the end of the season. In my mind, he will likely be steadily improving over the course of the entire season. I think that .300 is a good over-under for his on-base percentage. Consider Rays CF Kevin Kiermaier in 2015. He hit .263/.298/.420 (.718) and he won the Gold Glove. Despite a 97 OPS+, Kiermaier was worth 7.3 bWAR and 5.5 fWAR. I think looking at Kiermaier’s 2015 shows just how valuable Buxton’s defense alone can be, so if he can find a way to be nearly league average offensively, that is tremendously valuable. YOUR TURN Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Byron Buxton in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did. PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy Joe Mauer Brian Dozier Trevor Plouffe Eduardo Escobar Eddie Rosario Click here to view the article

I think I believe that both are true... And I can't wait to watch it! It's must-see TV when he comes to the plate.

It was a surprise in early May when the Twins decided to promote Eddie Rosario from AAA Rochester instead of Aaron Hicks. The idea was for him to spend a couple of weeks in The Show and then head back to Rochester. He homered on the first pitch he saw in the big leagues and played well enough to stick with the Twins the rest of the season. In fact, he more than did “just enough.” He played quite well and earned every day playing time. In 122 games, he hit .267/.289/.459 (.758). He certainly filled out the stat sheet. He had 18 doubles, 15 triples and 13 home runs. He added 11 stolen bases. He also played some great outfield defense. He primarily roamed the vast and spacious left field at Target Field, but he also spent 34 games in right field. In all, he recorded 16 outfield assists with a powerful and accurate arm. One quick prediction; he will have fewer assists in 2016 because it is unlikely that runners will try to take an extra base on his arm any longer. So what is in store for the talented outfielder from Puerto Rico in 2016?The phrase “No one walks off the island” originated when there was an influx of players from the Dominican Republic who needed to impress big league scouts with their ability to hit. The same can be said of players from another island, Puerto Rico. Rosario has always been a very aggressive hitter. In the low levels, he put up great numbers. In parts of two seasons in AA, he has struggled to get on base. In between, he endured a 50-game suspension. Last year, he had just 23 games in AAA before being promoted. It’s no surprise that he struggled to just a .289 on base percentage. In fact, few players swing at as many pitches inside (or outside) of the strike zone than Rosario did in 2015. There were times he swung at fastballs above his eyes and homered, and there were a lot of times he swung at a curve ball well off of (or in front of) the plate and missed. Last year, Rosario played left field in just over half of the Twins games. Twins left fielders were 12th in baseball with a .265 batting average. They were 25th in on-base percentage at .301. They rank ninth in slugging percentage at .442, and their .743 OPS was 15th in the big leagues. Thanks to Rosario, the Twins led baseball with 16 triples in 2015. KEY NUMBERS 0.022 - With a .289 on-base percentage and a .267 batting average, Rosario posted a .022 Isolated Discipline (IsoD) during his rookie season. He’s unlikely to post an IsoD anywhere near the 0.058 IsoD that was the average in the American League. So, a lot of his success is going to be batting average and extra base pop related. Rosario is going to swing a lot. He’ll miss a lot. He’ll produce some extra base hits and he’ll likely strikeout a lot. The key for me will be seeing improvements. Hopefully, he can take a few more walks. Hopefully he can have a little more control of the strike zone, finding a way to swing at fewer pitches outside the strike zone. Pitchers will adjust to him, and he is going to have to show the ability to adjust back to them. PREDICTIONS Eddie Rosario: 551 at-bats, .282/.316/.457 (.773), 28 doubles, 9 triples, 17 home runs. Many see Rosario as a regression candidate. I can understand that. Twins fans understand regression fully after seeing what happened with Danny Santana from 2014 to 2015. While I can understand that thinking, I think it is a little flawed. While Santana’s 2014 numbers came completely out of nowhere, Rosario’s were not so out of this world as to think they are not replicable, or hopefully even something that he could improve upon. So, I have him hitting for a little better batting average with a slightly improved IsoD. At the same time, with a full season, I think we’ll see a little drop in isolated power (IsoP), maybe even if it only be the reduction in triples. Overall, it’s a small improvement in OPS YOUR TURN Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Eddie Rosario in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did. PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy Joe Mauer Brian Dozier Trevor Plouffe Eduardo Escobar Click here to view the article

Burdi and Chargois are starting in Chattanooga.

According to Parker, who was in Terry Ryan's pregame press meeting, Ryan said that they are giving Quentin a couple of days to figure out his options and what he wants to do. He's hoping that Quentin will accept going to AAA, but who knows.

Terry Ryan confirmed that the 13 hitters listed will be up... including Buxton.

Nick wrote this article on John Ryan Murphy after talking to him earlier this week: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/spring-training-2016/twins-banking-on-murphys-growth-r4528 Sorry if you've been disappointed in the coverage. When we go down there, we all have different goals and different styles. Though I would go in the Twins clubhouse and talk to guys for a little bit before practice each morning, I also spent a ton of time watching the minor league side. I also took a ton of pictures for the Twitter page but also for minor league reports throughout the season. Nick also got to the clubhouse earlier and wrote a great Notes column each day as well as a feature each night. But as others mentioned, we do want to do things and write stories that you won't find elsewhere, topics that the mainstream guys aren't covering. We definitely appreciate your input and hopefully we can go again next year and we can try to get ideas for story ideas.

A long time... which means that this decision, whatever they decide, is solely based on baseball reasoning, not any of that business, service time stuff.

Yeah, I'd be shocked too if he made it.

See, I'm not always the most optimistic... Then again, I'm only under those other projections and thoughts by like .015 points of batting average, which is .030 points of OPS... not too bad.

Santana and Arcia would certainly get claimed. Tonkin is a maybe.

And Rogers, and Chargois, and maybe Meyer, and maybe Reed, and maybe Melotakis.

Which means >75% of his hits were singles. Again, don't get me wrong... if it was me, I'd have him up, and I still have him at 50/50, and I think that's probably a little low. And, of course, infield hits and turning singles into doubles and doubles into triple is part of what he does.

I don't think anyone would disagree.

I wouldn't say Buxton "pounded AAA last year." He hit in all 13 games and hit .400, but he didn't pound the ball at all. I watched or listened to pretty much all of those games. Most of the hits were slow rollers in the infield and some bloopers. He did hit a couple of balls really hard. I should point out also that if it was me, Buxton would be a given as the CF.

We are now just over a week from Opening Day. As we get closer to Opening Day, I somehow feel much less certain about my predictions for the roster. The questions that were there at the beginning of the camp, to some degree, remain. In the meantime, a couple more have presented themselves. This morning, the Twins optioned Max Kepler to Rochester, and Ryan Sweeney was given his release from the organization. There are now 35 players remaining at big league spring training. That’s nearly half of the number that began big league camp, but within a week, the Twins will have their final roster by dropping nine or ten more players (depending upon DL needs). So, I thought it would be a good time for one final Roster Projection before Opening Day to discuss some of the remaining questions. Share yours below.(As always, this is just a projection, a prediction of what a roster could look like on Opening Day. It is fully my opinion based on observation, reading, and too much time thinking about such things. Names in bold are givens, in my opinion.) Starting Pitchers (5): Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Tommy Milone, Tyler Duffey (remaining: Logan Darnell) The top three pitchers have been announced as the Twins opening series starters. They have yet to name the fourth and fifth starters, so there are some questions. In my mind, Tommy Milone has been a given all along, even if they haven’t said it yet. So, it really comes down to Tyler Duffey and Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco has pitched better, especially of late. Duffey has, frankly, struggled. They each have one more start to go before a decision would be made, and maybe they could both go to Washington and make starts before a final decision is made. I’m going to leave it at Tyler Duffey, but I feel very little confidence in that right now. In my mind, the Twins brass needs to ask this question; Is it better to have a two-pitch Duffey in the rotation right away, or better to send him to Rochester for two months to attempt to improve his change-up? Frankly, if he doesn’t develop the change-up as a quality third pitch, his long-term future is likely to be in the bullpen. Relief Pitchers (8): Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Fernando Abad, Ricky Nolasco, Michael Tonkin, Ryan Pressly (remaining: Ryan O’Rourke (40), Brandon Kintzler, Dan Runzler) First, I think if Tyler Duffey is not named the fifth starter, he will be optioned to Rochester. However, if Nolasco is not a starter, they will have to move him to the bullpen. That’s just the reality. We will see how that goes. So, that’s either zero or one roster spot. The first five names listed above are givens. No question about that in my mind. Though Abad hasn’t been great, I feel that he is going to be given a spot. Removing Mike Strong from the 40-man roster makes that even more likely. So there are five givens, and since I show Duffey as starting, that would make Nolasco a given as well. That puts us as six, and I think that Ryan Pressly has earned a job. I bolded his name above as a given, but not 100% certain. The elephant in the room remains Michael Tonkin. When I was there eight days ago, he was not good, and I was certain that he would not make the roster. In his most recent outing, he threw two terrific, perfect innings. He still throws 95. He has a slider. It just hasn’t translated well to the big leagues, though he was better last September. The other option, and the option that I’m projecting today, is going with a 13-man pitching staff. That isn’t ideal in the middle of the season much less at the beginning. No one wants that. Molitor and Ryan know that isn’t ideal. But, if they have any belief in Michael Tonkin, they won’t let him go for nothing. (Note – I also think that Terry Ryan may be trying to make a trade.) Catchers (2): Kurt Suzuki, John Ryan Murphy (likely sent down yet: John Hicks (40), Juan Centeno) Coming into spring training, it was pretty much a given that Suzuki would start and Murphy would be his backup. They added some quality AAA depth in John Hicks and Juan Centeno, a couple of 26-year-olds. 24-year-old Murphy has just two hits in 25 at-bats and has thrown out just one of six base stealers in camp. We all know that spring stats don’t mean much at all, and Murphy is someone they believe in. He needs to work with the big league pitchers. That said, you could argue that if Duffey, Berrios and Meyer are in the Rochester starting rotation, you could send him down for four to six weeks and have him work with those guys. If that were to happen, Hicks would be the Opening Day backup. I still expect John Ryan Murphy to back up Kurt Suzuki to start the season. Infielders (6): Joe Mauer, Byung Ho Park, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Nunez (sent down yet: James Beresford) These spots are pretty much already set. Beresford is still around, showing that he is likely in line for that Doug Bernier role that we’ve seen the last three years. If there is an opening for a backup infielder, I think Beresford is that guy. If there is an injury and they would need more of a starter (at SS or 2B), they would likely call up Jorge Polanco. Not a lot more to say with this group. These have all been givens throughout the spring, and also remember that Danny Santana can play three infield spots as well. Outfielders (4): Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia (sent down yet: Byron Buxton (40), Darin Mastroianni, Carlos Quentin) All- right, here is where things get interesting for Twins fans, and more so, for Twins pitchers. Byron Buxton came to camp given the opportunity to win the starting center field job. He missed a couple of games with illness and one due to rain. He has been good, as expected, in the outfield. He has had a couple of good offensive games. Most of the time, he’s had a couple of bad at-bats each game, and one or two OK (or even good) at-bats as well when getting three or four plate appearances. I am starting to wonder if Buxton could start the season in Rochester. As we have said above with Duffey, or as we see with the Kepler demotion, there has to be a fine line between wanting to have the players on the big league roster with doing what is best for the players and the team in the short term and long term. It might be ideal for him to go to Rochester for a month and lead off every game. Get him as many at-bats as possible. Right now, I feel like the odds of Buxton being on the Opening Day roster right around 50/50. If this is the outfield that they went with on Opening Day, there would be two possible outfield configurations lineups: 1.) Rosario (LF), Santana (CF), Sano (RF), or 2.) Arcia (LF), Rosario (CF), Sano (RF) Obviously Arcia would be able to play right field as well to give Sano a day off if needed. Santana can at least cover some ground in the corner spots as well. If Buxton is sent down, I don’t think it would be for very long. The Twins aren’t going to want to stay at 13 pitchers for very long. They want his defense and speed patrolling center field for the big league pitchers. I’d also add that I think if Terry Ryan could trade Michael Tonkin before Opening Day, then Buxton would be in the big leagues and the Twins would have 13 hitters and 12 pitchers. The Twins have just a few really tough decisions to make in the next seven days. I see there being 22 givens to be on the roster (pending injury, unexpected trade, etc.). That means three roster spots are up for grabs between these players: (Tyler Duffey, Michael Tonkin, Byron Buxton, John Ryan Murphy, John Hicks, maybe Ryan O'Rourke) YOUR TURN Let’s see your rosters for Opening Day and what you would do. Click here to view the article

Show us you can beat Vegas and you can win a Harry’s Razor starter kit! They were only a surprise if you weren't paying attention. They competed early, made big moves at the trade deadline and hung on for 86 wins and their first playoff appearance since 2005. They lose Scott Kazmir from the deadline, but Carlos Gomez is still on the team and they made some strategic bullpen signings.Vegas’ Line: 87.5 wins What The Line Is Saying "Last year was no fluke. This was a good team and should be even better this year." They’ll Beat Vegas If… …the team doesn't have one enormous sophomore slump. The team is young, there is still some talent coming and, for the most part, they proved to themselves that they can win. The next step is improving their 6-13 record last year against the rival Texas Rangers. If they do, watch out. If you beat Vegas, you can win a free Harry’s Razor starter set. Just leave a comment with your choice of the “Over” or” Under” and your reasoning. At the end of the season, for each team, we’ll randomly pick one of the winning predictions for a free Truman Razor set. They’ll Lose To Vegas If… Their starting pitching takes a big step backwards. Last year they led the AL in ERA, despite having just two pitchers, Dallas Keuchel and Colin McHugh, who had over 22 starts. The added Doug Fister this offseason to try to help with that, but he is coming off an injury-marred year. I’ll Bet The…. OVER Last year was impressive to those who follow team arcs, but this is the year the Astros are positioned to really impress the more casual fans. If they can get past their issues with the Rangers, the sky is the limit. Now it’s your turn. Give us your prediction in the comment section (you’ll need to register first) and you’re automatically entered. We’ll be giving out a free Harry’s Razor Truman Set to one of the winning correct predictions for each team, so we’ll be give away 15 sets of razors! You can also click over to Harry’s Razors and get $5 off on your first order using the promo code ‘gleeman’. Click here to view the article

Tom Kelly always said it took 1,500 at bats to know what you have in a player. I'm pretty OK waiting at least another 600-800, maybe even another 1,400 at bats to see what he can be. I'm sure the Twins pitching staff will be happy to have him in centerfield for that time.