Seth Stohs

If you ever have an hour to spare and you’re not feeling great, do a search for “Alex Kirilloff Batting Practice” on YouTube, Google or your search engine of choice. I’d guess you’ll find yourself smiling. In preparing for this article, I only meant to watch one video. An hour later, I figured I should start writing. In 2015, the Twins had their first season with a record over .500 since 2010. Because of it, they drafted outside of the top six picks for the first time in five years. With the 15th overall pick, the Twins went in a familiar direction, an athletic outfielder out of high school. Alex Kirilloff was drafted out of Plum High School in Pennsylvania. He actually was part of the Pennsylvania Cyber School, a public charter with online courses. On the day the Twins drafted him, he led his team to the state championship game. If you ever have an hour to spare and you’re not feeling great, do a search for “Alex Kirilloff Batting Practice” on YouTube, Google or your search engine of choice. I’d guess you’ll find yourself smiling. In preparing for this article, I only meant to watch one video. An hour later, I figured I should start writing. In 2015, the Twins had their first season with a record over .500 since 2010. Because of it, they drafted outside of the top six picks for the first time in five years. With the 15th overall pick, the Twins went in a familiar direction, an athletic outfielder out of high school. Alex Kirilloff was drafted out of Plum High School in Pennsylvania. He actually was part of the Pennsylvania Cyber School, a public charter with online courses. On the day the Twins drafted him, he led his team to the state championship game. After signing, Kirilloff jumped straight to Elizabethton where he got off to a great start. Through his first 38 games, he hit .361/.378/.516 (.894) with nine doubles and five home runs. He slowed down as the summer went on, and his season came to an end early with an elbow injury. In a recent Q&A with Twins Daily, Kirilloff discussed his success in his pro debut. “It really was a combination of things. First off, it was a blessing from the Lord, and I give all the glory to God for letting me get off to a good start in my career. Second, I was pretty rested, excited, and eager to start playing.” Age: 19 (DOB: 11/9/97) 2016 Stats (Adv-Rookie): .306/.341/.454 (.795), nine doubles, one triple, seven home runs ETA: 2020 2016 Twins Daily Ranking: NR National Top 100 Rankings BA: 98 | MLB: NR | ESPN: 97 | BP: NR What's To Like As you would expect from any first-round draft pick, there is a lot to like about Alex Kirilloff. He has the tools and the makeup to go with it. The first thing that people talk about when it comes to Kirilloff is his offensive game. He’s got good size (6-2, 200 pounds). His father owns an indoor hitting facility and there are stories of Kirilloff hitting off the tee as soon as he was able to walk. He has always played against older competition, a trend which continued in Elizabethton where he was more than two years younger than the league average. He possesses a smooth, left-handed swing and uses the whole field very well. He has shown power to all fields. He’s got quick hands and can pull the ball a long way, but his most natural power just might be to left-center field. He showed power in Elizabethton in his pro debut, and most believe that he will continue to add home run power. Defensively, he has enough speed that he could play center field. However, he primarily played right field with the E-Twins and that will likely be his position going forward. He has a strong arm. He also played some first base in his amateur career and really impressed scouts with his work there. What's Left To Work On While most believe that Kirilloff is an advanced hitter, one thing he’ll certainly look to improve upon in his first full season will be getting on base more often. While he struck out in just 13.8% of his plate appearances, he walked just 4.7% of his plate appearances. It’s not unusual for first-year pros to debut and swing early and often, looking to make a strong impression. He was known in high school to have a strong approach at the plate, but he’ll need to show more of that in 2017. Other than that, Kirilloff needs to play. He needs at-bats, and he needs to get opportunities in the outfield. He will need to adjust to the advanced speed of the game as he moves up the ladder. As Kirilloff himself said in the aforementioned Q&A, “I still have room for improvement in all aspects of my game though and I have a long way to go.” What's Next Like other top draft picks, Alex Kirilloff will begin his first full season as a professional in the Midwest League. He will begin the season in Cedar Rapids. Most likely, he’ll spend the full season there, though it is certainly possible that he could spend time late in the season with the Miracle in Ft. Myers. ~~~ Read up on our previous installments in the Twins Daily top prospects series: TD Top Prospects: #20-16 TD Top Prospects: #15-11 TD Top Prospects: #10 Lewin Diaz TD Top Prospects: #9 Travis Blankenhorn TD Top Prospects: #8 Kohl Stewart TD Top Prospects: #7 Adalberto Mejia TD Top Prospects: #6 Wander Javier TD Top Prospects: #5 Tyler Jay TD Top Prospects: #4 Nick Gordon TD Top Prospects: #3 Alex Kirilloff TD Top Prospects: #2 (Coming Thursday) TD Top Prospects: #1 (Coming Friday) View full article

I don't know how to judge that without spending a ton of time. I think their player development has done a good job with hitters. Obviously they have struggled with pitchers. They have had several success, and they have had several "failures." Some methods work for some and the same method doesn't work for others. I don't know how to judge any of that. It's a huge success if an 8th rounder makes it to AA, right? How about a 32nd rounder spending 2-3 years in the big leagues as a utility infielder? That's a huge success. My guess is any sort of analytics would not be very favorable to the Twins over the last 10 years or so. I've written a couple of articles saying that... but I think that the Twins have some scouting successes and several failures. I think player development has had some successes and some failures. I think they've had some successes and some failures in self-scouting. But more important, I think that we need to move on. Let's see the Falvey and Levine processes and give them a year or two to see the changes and differences. And, I would think that of the group of Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco and Berrios (all developed in the TWins system), at least a couple of them will take a step forward. Let's see how Chargois, Burdi, Duffey, May, Hildenberger, Reed, Melotakis, Jay, Gordon, etc. do.

http://www.twincities.com/2017/02/21/korn-ferry-exec-jed-hughes-says-derek-falvey-has-the-right-stuff/ Berardino talked to Korn Ferry executive Jed Hughes about their decision to recommend Derek Falvey to the Twins. There are a lot of great quotes that explain what the Twins were looking for, what Falvey brought to the table and much more. .... And a lot more...

http://www.twincities.com/2017/02/21/dave-winfield-shares-some-wisdom-with-minnesota-twins-byron-buxton/ Dave Winfield was in the Twins camp today in his role as senior advisor to Tony Clark, chief officer of the player's union. But Berardino talked to former Gopher athlete and short-time Twins player about chatting with Byron Buxton. Buxton maybe even learned a few things.

http://www.twincities.com/2017/02/21/minnesota-twins-reliever-ryan-orourke-and-his-nervous-stomach/ In today's notes article from Mike Berardino, the lead story is the stomach of Ryan O'Rourke. Earlier in the morning, Twins Director of Communications was posting some obscure facts about a variety of Twins players. It included the following: Berardino asked the left-hander about it... It's true, and it goes back to even his college days and the minor leagues. Also in the article, there are some more notes including notes on the "crossfire" of Justin Haley, and bullpen information/updates on Glen Perkins and Mason Melotakis.

I'm sure there have been several mistakes, as there are in every organization... But I'd like to see a list of say 5-6 more areas where we can definitively say that poor player development or "mismanagement" affected a player. For instance... was Matt Moses not getting past AA about bad player development, or some sort of mismanagement? Or, was it that Moses didn't really care too much and didn't do a lot of extra work? (not to say taht's the case) Was it the Twins player development issue or mismanagement that Alex Wimmers go the yips (which they helped him correct) or need Tommy John surgery. And likewise, do the Twins get credit for Brian Dozier, a senior sign 8th round pick without huge tools? Do they get credit for developing late, late round picks to the big leagues? I'm not saying there aren't sometimes better ways, and Falvey and Levine will likely implement several. But they're not going to have a perfect record either. I hope that's not the expectations.

While i would like to see Berrios make the opening day roster, I don't think he's earned anything. I think we throw the term "jerking him around" too often. Berrios isn't at the point where he should be handed a job yet. I think he'll get there, and hopefully soon, but nothing about his 2016 should say that he should be given a job out of spring training. Thrylos... I had to respond because every once in awhile I do agree with you.

Javier's Twins Prospect Rankings: Twins Daily - 6 Seth - 8 Nick - 6 Jeremy - 7 Cody - 7 Baseball America - 13 Baseball Prospectus - 6 John Sickels - 9 MLB Pipeline - 12 Keith Law - NR

Tyler Jay's Twins Prospect Rankings: Twins Daily - 5 Seth - 5 Nick - 5 Jeremy - 5 Cody - 5 Baseball America - 5 Baseball Prospectus - 2 John Sickels (Minor League Ball) - 5 MLB Pipeline - 1 Keith Law - 6

I should have done this for all of them, but ... Nick Gordon's Twins prospect rankings by some "rankers": Twins Daily - 4 Seth - 4 Nick - 4 Jeremy - 3 Cody - 1 Baseball America - 1 Baseball Prospectus - 1 John Sickels (Minor League Ball) - 1 MLB Pipeline - 2 Keith Law - 1

In past years, I posted my first big league Roster Projections on the first day of Twins full-squad workouts. This is a couple of days late. Actually, my first 2017 Roster Projection was done following baseball’s Winter Meetings in mid-December. Here’s the second attempt, though a lot can still happen in the next six or seven weeks. This is always a fun exercise. Without question, this can and will change at any time. Certainly there are several roster spots that are Givens meaning, if they are healthy, they will make the Opening Day roster. The remainder of the jobs could still be up for grabs. Spring Training statistics should not matter much in decision making, but spring training performance will matter. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today In past years, I posted my first big league Roster Projections on the first day of Twins full-squad workouts. This is a couple of days late. Actually, my first 2017 Roster Projection was done following baseball’s Winter Meetings in mid-December. Here’s the second attempt, though a lot can still happen in the next six or seven weeks. This is always a fun exercise. Without question, this can and will change at any time. Certainly there are several roster spots that are Givens meaning, if they are healthy, they will make the Opening Day roster. The remainder of the jobs could still be up for grabs. Spring Training statistics should not matter much in decision making, but spring training performance will matter. So here is my second attempt at projecting the Twins Opening Day roster… I encourage you to read my thoughts, develop your own and then post your thoughts and projections in the comments below. THE HITTERS Catchers (2): Jason Castro, Mitch Garver Jason Castro will be the primary catcher. He will likely catch 110-120 games, so the question will be who can start behind the plate in the other 40-50 games. Ideally, that backup would be a right-handed hitter. The three primary backup catching options all bat right-handed. Last time, I put John Ryan Murphy in the backup catcher role. He may be the favorite as spring training begins. Chris Gimenez has plenty of big league experience as a backup catcher. The Twins have asked him to spend time in the corner infield and outfield spots this spring to be more flexible. The thing he’s most got against him may be the fact that he’s not on the 40-man roster. While he has the least experience, which certainly is the biggest thing he has against him, Mitch Garver might be the most well-rounded catcher in the organization. He has only about two months of time in AAA, but of the three, he’s probably got the most offensive potential. His defense has improved by leaps and bounds in recent years as well. He will have to go out and win the backup catcher spot. I think he’s capable. The question will be whether the Twins brass will want him as the big league backup, or if they’d like him to catch two out of three in AAA (and DH and play 1B in Rochester the other games). Infielders (6): Kennys Vargas, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar Joe Mauer will start most of the time at first base, and he should, at least against right-handers. He’ll need time off, a bunch, so Kennys Vargas will get some time there. Vargas will likely be the primary DH. Miguel Sano will likely get the majority of time at third base, though he could see time at DH and first base too. Brian Dozier will be at second base most every day. I don’t think we need to worry too much about that. Jorge Polanco should start the season as the team’s primary shortstop. His question marks with the glove make it uncertain that that he’ll stay there all year. Eduardo Escobar will likely get some starts at shortstop. He’ll also play a lot of third base when Sano is playing elsewhere. With this group (and the 13th hitter), there is some flexibility in the infield. It’s possible that Byungho Park could be a DH option as well. Outfielders (4): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Robbie Grossman I think the three starters are pretty close to set. Byron Buxton will be manning center field, hopefully as close to 162 times as possible. We all hope his September showing is a sign of good things to come. If he can put up decent offensive numbers with his defense, that is immensely valuable. Max Kepler will look to improve upon a solid rookie season in the big leagues. He’s got good range and an accurate arm in right field. While he’s a line drive hitter, he is very strong and has a chance to add a lot of power as he learns to lift the ball. Eddie Rosario fought a sophomore slump in 2016 both offensively and defensively. There are no secrets with Rosario. Doesn’t want to walk. Will likely struggle to post an OBP over .300. Has some momentary lapses. Sometimes tries to do too much. But he’s very talented. If he isn’t going to walk, he just needs to know which pitches he can and can’t drive. Robbie Grossman - as I’ve written before - may be the worst defensive outfielder I’ve seen in a Twins uniform (and I’ve seen Delmon Young, Josh Willingham and some other really bad defensive outfielders). But he can crush left-handed pitching. Maybe he can play some in left field when there are ground ball pitchers. He should DH a lot against left-handed pitching. 13th Hitter (1): Ehire Adrianza This is kind of a new category for me… There were a lot of options that fit into this category. So I thought I would address them here. Right now I’ve got Ehire Adrianza as the “25th man.” I figured with the question marks with Polanco that Adrianza can be a late-inning defensive replacement when the team has a lead. Frankly, Eduardo Escobar could hold the same role for third base as well. But there are other options as well. Danny Santana may fit the role best, in some ways. His ability to at least play three outfield positions and three infield positions may have the most value to the roster. Looking at the outfielders I profiled above, it becomes clear that the team could struggle in the outfield if one of the three starters gets a day off. It may make sense to have Santana, who isn’t a plus defensive outfielder either, available. JB Shuck could be an outfield option, as could Ben Paulsen. However, the two bat left-handed. The Twins could use a right-handed outfield option to give days off to Rosario or Kepler. That’s where Drew Stubbs might make some sense as well. If Chris Gimenez proves that he can play multiple positions adequately, he is likely an option as well. POSSIBLE LINEUPS Versus RHP: Byron Buxton CF, Joe Mauer 1B, Brian Dozier 2B, Miguel Sano 3B, Max Kepler RF, Kennys Vargas DH, Eddie Rosario LF, Jason Castro C, Jorge Polanco SS Versus LHP: Byron Buxton CF, Robbie Grossman LF, Brian Dozier 2B, Miguel Sano DH, Kennys Vargas 1B, Mitch Garver C, Max Kepler RF, Eduardo Escobar 3B, Jorge Polanco SS. Byron Buxton, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco are the guys I want in the lineup almost every day. Kennys Vargas is in both lineups, but I would use the DH spot to also give “half days off” to guys like Dozier and Mauer and Grossman, as well. THE PITCHERS Starting Pitchers (5): Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Hector Santiago, Trevor May All right, barring injury or something completely unexpected, the first four (Santana, Hughes, Gibson and Santiago) will be in the starting rotation when the season starts in April. I have written several times that I think if Jose Berrios has a strong camp (and shows fastball command), he will be in the Twins starting rotation. I just can’t help but wonder how playing in the WBC will affect his opportunity to make the team on Opening Day. And that’s the reason that I have Trevor May starting the season in the rotation. While May isn't a Given to be a starting pitcher, but he's very likely guaranteed to be on the Opening Day roster. There will be other contenders for a spot, including Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch and Adalberto Mejia. Bullpen (7): Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle, JT Chargois, Taylor Rogers, Craig Breslow, Justin Haley. It appears that Brandon Kintzler will go into the season as the closer. Matt Belisle and Ryan Pressly will certainly be set-up men. Taylor Rogers should have secured one of the left-handed bullpen spots. So there are four of the seven bullpen spots pretty much guaranteed. Let’s start with the left-handers. I am going to go with the assumption that Glen Perkins will start the season on the disabled list. That’s not necessarily the case, but probably still the more likely situation. Now I’ve got Craig Breslow taking the second lefty bullpen spot. He’s a veteran, brought in late, and the front office has frequently talked about veteran leadership. He will, of course, have to show this spring that his new arm angle will be successful. Ryan O’Rourke is the best option if they want a lefty-specialist due to his incredible numbers against same-siders. Buddy Boshers had a nice season in 2016 as well. Mason Melotakis will likely debut in 2017, but it wasn’t likely to happen at the start of the season. His oblique injury makes that more certain. In my opinion, JT Chargois’s days in the minor leagues should be over. At 26 and with his September performance, he should be a given. I don’t know that he is. After that, it’s some of the same names. Justin Haley was my choice because he is either MLB-ready or very close. He could fill a long-relief role while also being able to spot start if needed. That means that Ryan Vogelson and Nick Tepesch start the season off the big league roster. Michael Tonkin has a chance still to make the roster again. I think the toughest decision will be on Tyler Duffey. Could he make the team as a starter or a long-reliever? Would they start him in Rochester, and if so, would it be as a starter or a reliever? We’ll probably update this every other week or so as Opening Day nears. For now, it’s a starting point for a possible roster. As I mentioned, some of the spots are certainly subject to change at any time. What are your thoughts? What does your roster look like? View full article

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/216511224/aaron-slegers-learning-to-fit-in-with-twins/ For MiLB, Scott Butherus wrote about Aaron Slegers. Slegers is used to the tall jokes, the basketball jokes, etc. He said it comes with the territory, but he's trying to fit in at spring training. And he's trying to learn along the way. He's had to make several adjustments as a player.

Because they couldn't get a king's ransom for Brian Dozier... And, he's played like 400 professional baseball games a shortstop. Now we hope he gets better, which since he's 23, he could.

Sure, it was a mistake not to have him play some SS in Rochester. I've said that since... well, last year, when I questioned it several times in the first half of the season. But Polanco's defensive stats also indicate that they haven't been wrong about his defense.

When he was signed, the thought was that he would be a good fielder who might eventually develop some offensive abilities. When he got up to Cedar Rapids, he split time at SS and 2B almost evenly, though when Niko Goodrum was healthy, he was clearly the better defensive SS. They put Polanco at SS almost exclusively in Ft. Myers and then in Chattanooga. It wasn't until last year that he didn't really play much SS. So, it's not like SS is new to him.

Sano has been fully supportive of Smith in any interviews.

I put this in the Berardino article thread, but the discussion should be here: Should Polanco have played some SS last year in Rochester? Probably. But anyone who watched him at SS the previous years, and certainly anyone that watched him last year in spring training, saw that he is going to be a bad shortstop. Yes, he's just 23 and can improve, and hopefully he will... but the advanced stats have also verified that he is not very good at SS. I think we can say that the strategy of not playing him more there last year probably wasn't right. But as of this point, those evaluators that struggled to see him as a shortstop aren't likely wrong either.

Should Polanco have played some SS last year in Rochester? Probably. But anyone who watched him at SS the previous years, and certainly anyone that watched him last year in spring training, saw that he is going to be a bad shortstop. Yes, he's just 23 and can improve, and hopefully he will... but the advanced stats have also verified that he is not very good at SS. I think we can say that the strategy of not playing him more there last year probably wasn't right. But as of this point, those evaluators that struggled to see him as a shortstop aren't likely wrong either.

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/216518032/dream-comes-true-for-twins-coach-jeff-smith/ Jeff Smith was drafted by the Twins in 1995. He got all the way up to AAA for the Twins as a catcher before retiring. He became a coach in the GCL in 2005 and has coached in Beloit, Ft. Myers, New Britain and then back in Ft. Myers before being named the Twins 1B coach this season. His knowledge of catching was one reason he got the job. His familiarity with so many of the young Twins prospects is another.

http://www.twincities.com/2017/02/20/craig-breslow-passes-first-test-facing-batters-for-minnesota-twins/ Mike Berardino witnessed Craig Breslow's first live BP and said it was a success. He faced Joe Mauer and Miguel Sano. Both were impressed with his new arm angle. Jason Castro caught him too. And Mauer compared it to what he saw from Breslow a decade ago. In other news in the article... Paul Molitor full acknowledged the mistake of Jorge Polanco not playing any shortstop in the minor leagues last year. Berardino also had a fun story on Aaron Slegers throwing to Brian Dozier in live BP with Torii Hunter observing. First pitch Dozier hit a long home run. Second pitch nearly hit Dozier, which got Hunter all excited. Several other notes.

It's a story we'll likely want to follow throughout spring training. Mark Sheldon, beat writer for the Reds the last decade (and Twins for 5 years before that), wrote about Stuart Turner. As you recall, Turner was the 2nd Rule 5 pick of the Reds in December. He'll have a real shot to make the team. He'll have to stay on their big league roster all season or potentially be offered back to the Twins (or a trade could be worked out). He'll be competing with Devin Mesorasco and Tucker Barnhart, along with Rob Brantly, this spring.

Cory, Keep posting these, but in that first one, have a short intro, and then have the schedule... something like... Week 1 - January 27th - Guest Seth Stohs and... Week 2 - February 2 - Guest Brandon Warne ... Week 3 - February 9 - Guest Rhett Bollinger and ... Week 4 - February 16 - Guests X and Y ... Then each week update that with the new guests and the podcasts new link.

I agree with all of this... I'd also say that so much of his work is filmed. A lot of the minor league guys work out similarly hard in the offseason without posting it. Which is why I really like the plan of every pitcher working fastball command so much. They'll work at it, and hopefully that focus will work for many of them.