Danchat

Of course they called it a hit when a good throw would have netted the out... they just don't call errors anymore.

Whoops, I missed that update. I didn't know he had an option - I could see them DFA'ing him for Ervin when the time comes. Also, Lance Lynn at 26 pitches after 2 innings? The Orioles must be pretty bad!

Just a nitpick, but I don't get what all this hullabaloo over Motter is. He had 16 PAs and he's likely getting DFA'd when he comes off the DL. in AAA right now. He filled in for about 10 days as the utility infielder and had a very minimal impact on the team - Seattle gave him 17 PAs this season, was that because of bad management? The Twins claimed him and tried to see if he was any good and he wasn't. If he sticks around like Belisle then I'll understand your complaint.

The high draft picks aren't here because Terry Ryan squandered selections on Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay. Buxton can't figure out how to hit and Nick Gordon is on the cusp of arriving... we might end up with one good player out of that group and that's mostly on TR (though I'm not sure who to blame Buxton's failed development on).

I don't either, but it's clear Molitor sees him as a utility infielder only and probably only an emergency catcher. I wonder if he's going to be optioned when Adrianza gets healthy. (and Motter should be a guaranteed DFA when he's healthy)

The Red Sox traded for Steve Pearce a week ago and they already have Mitch Moreland. I don’t think they’ll need Mauer.

Eh, I think there's a good chance it will be used for the Twins payroll. Especially if they are going to slash payroll by $25M like some have claimed on another thread, they're going to need that money.

So, who trusts Rodney to get the 9th?

The longer the season gets, the more I believe a Twins Daily poster could manage this team better than the Twins are doing it. Slegers stays in the 7th, Wilson isn't the starting catcher, Dozier isn't hitting 3rd... it's more a sign that Molitor is doing a bad job rather than the lot of us being smart.

Have you seen this article? https://deadspin.com/are-the-orioles-going-to-let-chris-davis-have-the-worst-1826667920 The dude's on pace to have one of the worst seasons in MLB history... and the Orioles owe him $69M after this season.

I hope they bring Slegers out for the 7th, but with Pressly warming up, I guess Paul is on a quest to overuse him as much as possible.

Well, if they're going to get Romero back up, I'd be for that. But for whatever reason Belisle needs a roster spot all to himself. I think I'd rather have Tyler Kinley back on the roster rather than him.

I wish they'd at least rotate the commercials once or twice a season. I wonder if companies realize that their atrocious commercials get worse when fans are seeing them for the 40th time in the season?

Isn't that a good thing in golf? Wait, I think I got it mixed up. Anyways, good to see a solid inning for the hitters as Cashner is a guy they should be able to string a few runs against.

Kepler got a cookie on that 3-1 count but he was taking... I feel like he could have hit that one out of the park if he would have swung the bat.

In my recent analysis, Polanco was worth approximately 2 WAR (somewhere between 1.6 to 2.5) last season. So half a season might be worth around 1 WAR... and with Adrianza being worth around 0.5 to 0.8 WAR, I can't say there's been much of a drop-off. But it's possible Polanco takes a big step forward and proves to be more valuable than his 2017 form.

I clearly remember Granite's throws didn't reach the cut-off man several times. Maybe it's not as bad as I think it is... but I am getting flashbacks of when Granite threw the ball to 1B on a play where a runner was tagging up and going home. He has no ability to throw baserunners out.

We said the same things about Melotakis when he was released early in the season, and that didn't appear to be off-the-field related. I guess the Twins are just giving up on him... the FO has done a great job losing my trust over the past couple months.

LoMo’s been awful but Davis has been historically bad - he’s getting on base about 70 points below Morrison!! Poor Showalter keeps writing his name into the lineup because he’s making $23m a year.

Yes, I am aware of that, so that's why I had to make the assumption by doubling the current Twins' WAR, which makes things unrealistic, but this is an informal analysis so I didn't think it would be a big deal. I did consider figuring out the WAR at the halfpoint last year, but I quickly decided not to after realizing how much work it would take. However, if I choose to do this next year, I have exactly what I need right here!

I don't know about Granite... I just don't think he has an MLB toolset. Zero power, bad arm, and now he can't hit at AAA anymore. The ups and downs for him at AAA have been crazy. Cave looks like he could at least make a solid bench bat. I'd keep giving him PAs in the majors. I'm hoping Curtiss can crack the bullpen this season, but these young relievers have been having a very difficult time staying on the roster. Right now they've been ferrying guys from MLB to AAA back and forth, and while that's a good strategy, I'd like to see a young guy take Belisle's spot and earn a roster spot like Hildy did last year.

Belisle hasn't pitch since the month of June (5 games ago). If they're going to put him on the roster, they should at least use him!

We'd be claiming him to use him as a reliever, of course! We'll groom him to be our closer for when Rodney goes.

Where did all the wins go? - Part 2 - The Batters Today we're going to find out where all the wins went, because it's time for a statistical analysis of the hitters, and it's gonna be ugly. I'll be examining their WAR but also several other stats that I found relevant. This time around, I'm going to use both Baseball-Reference's and Fangraph's WAR measurements and compare them. We'll start with 1B and DHs first: --My apologies for the small images; if you're on a computer, I recommend right-clicking the images and opening them up in a new tab-- 1B/DH Key: oWAR is Baseball-Reference's measure of how many wins the player's offense is worth. UZR is Fangraph's measure of defense for non-catchers. "F.G. Def." is the percentile of where that player ranks among his peers in the MLB. "BB WAR" is Baseball-Reference's WAR measurement and FG stands for Fangraphs. Finally, the "My WAR" is the measurement I choose for the player - for example, for Joe Mauer 2017, I chose BB's WAR over Fangraphs, and sometimes it could be a mix of the two ratings. Losing a month of Mauer hurt this team, and he hasn't been the best since he's been back. Joe's OPS has dropped about 80 points, his defense hasn't been as elite as last year, and his power has diminished even further - it's embarrassing to have a 1B who has a 0.88% chance to hit a home run every time up. Joe projects to finish lose 2 more games for the Twins compared to his 2018 form, which is tough to swallow since virtually nobody else is picking up the slack. Logan Morrison, coming off a career year in Tampa Bay, couldn't be having a worse season. At least Kennys Vargas was able to be a passable DH option last season, as Morrison projects finish over a full win worse than Kennys. Morrison's defense at 1B has been just alright, and he talks a bunch of walks, but that's about it. He can't get hits and when he does, he's not hitting for power much anymore... it's not as though he's getting really old (he's 30), but suddenly he's not looking like a MLB-caliber hitter anymore. Robbie Grossman has also been a big disappointment. With yet another massive drop in OPS in this group, Grossman's ability to take walks has diminished by about 23%, and with little power and terrible defense, it's not clear what purpose Robbie fills on this team. We're a ways off from Grossman's 2016 .828 OPS and I don't think we're going to see that version of him again. Catchers I stuck with just Fangraph's general defensive metrics for the catchers, as I think they did a good enough job capturing the defensive level of the few players. Jason Castro's 2017 was underrated, and we're feeling the brunt of missing out on it. That isn't to say he was going to repeat it - his start to 2018 was horrid offensively - but they could really use his defensive abilities out there. Meanwhile, Garver has been ranked as MLB's worst defensive catcher by fangraphs, and I'm sure many here would agree. Mitch's bat has been solid, but also below 2017 Castro's, as he hit more HRs and took more walks. Garver needs to hit a lot better to justify his terrible defense. Surprisingly, the Twins could use 2017 Chris Gimenez back, as he was surprisingly worth about 1 WAR. His batting average was bad but he took a ton of walks, had the ability to swat HRs, and his defense was mostly solid. Too bad the Twins are using Bobby Wilson as their primary catcher now, who's on pace to be worth -1.0 WAR or even worse if he plays more. All in all, the Twins have lost 4 more games thanks to their catchers... yikes. Next, the infielders: Dozier is somehow worth about a win, and most of that is coming from his bat, which has seen a remarkable drop-off from 2017. He's hitting HRs 30% less often, his OPS has dropped by a massive 150 points, and the Gold Glover's defense has been below average this season. He stills brings a decent amount of value to the table, and if he finishes the season at 2.4 WAR, that isn't so bad... but it's his total ineptitude in RISP and high leverage situations that frustrate me the most. He has the ability to be an All-Star 2B but he's inexplicably dropped off a cliff in his contract year. Meanwhile, the transition from Polanco to Adrianza for the first half of 2018 went rather smoothly. It depends what you make of their defense - Ehire has mostly been regarded as a very good defender, but something has gone wrong this season. Fangraphs thinks he's been a liability out there, which is the type of thing you'd think make Adrianza a massive downgrade. However, his bat has finally come around and while it's nothing exciting, he's been far and away a superior batter from his days as a Giant. With Polanco up, I don't think we have too much to worry about here. I can't say much about Sano that hasn't already been said. Around the All-Star game last year he began a sharp decline that has resulted him hitting at A ball. His K% rate didn't change much from 2017, but I think that's more due to his second half in 2017 being so full of strikeouts. He needs to figure out how to get his walk rate back to its 2017 form. Fangraphs doesn't like his defense at 3B, and it's possible his next position is 1B or DH. Wow, there's something positive to talk about here? Eduardo Escobar to the rescue! Eddie's improvement has been rather straightforward, but I am a bit concerned about his rising K% rate. He has improved with taking walks, though. All four of these infielders are considered as liabilities in the field, which has to be a concern. One reason why this team was so good last year was due to our fielding. Adrianza was worth 1.0 WAR last year, and we're not getting that from the Petit/Motter/Astudillo group. Having Escobar and Adrianza on the bench last year was great for depth purposes - unfortunately Sano's demise and Polanco's suspension used up said depth. That's our 3rd position group with at least -4.0 WAR... Outfielders We'll start with the good news first. His name is Eddie Rosario because he's the only thing that's been 'good' about the outfield. Not only has he topped his numbers from an already impressive 2017 season, but he's improved his defense, and by my eye, he's mostly stopped with his inaccurate throws from left field. For all the strikeout concerns some had with Rosario, he strikes out just 17.5% of the time, and only Mauer and Kepler have smaller K% rates. He has some serious pop in his bat and he's close to his first All-Star appearance. Byron Buxton has obviously been a disappoint, and losing his stellar defense in center field has been detrimental to the pitching staff. Baseball-Reference had him as high as 5.5 WAR last season! Fangraphs had him as the best defensive CF but only at 3.5 WAR, so I chose 4.7 WAR as a middle ground between the two (I thought his defense was worth about 2 wins plus 2.7 oWAR). LaMarre and Cave haven't been black holes in Buxton's absence, but they [actually just Cave] project(s) to finish with around 0.6 WAR. That's not bad, but it's still a big drop-off from what we had last season. About a 5 win drop-off! I don't get Max Kepler. He vastly improves his K% rate, he's taking a bunch more walks, his defense is getting better... and yet, his third season in the MLB has been even more disappointing than his first two years, which weren't much to talk about either. He seems to be hitting in to the shift and hitting far too many pop-ups and weak flyballs. His sudden weakness to right-handed pitchers is also baffling. Kepler seems to have the ability to be something more than a 1-2 WAR hitter but he just can't figure it out. I didn't include Grossman here, as I thought he fit better as a DH. The outfield has been worse than its 2017 form, but Rosario is ensuring it's not the disaster all the other positions are. Adding it all up, the hitters have been -14.6 WAR worse than their 2017 selves. Yikes!! ~~ Summary ~~ Pitchers 3.1 WAR + Hitters -14.6 WAR = -11.5 WAR The Twins should be about 11 to 12 games worse than they were in 2017. However, that's not the case. The 2017 Twins finished 7 games above .500 and as of the season midpoint, the Twins are 11 games under .500. We're comparing -11.5 WAR to -19 WAR... so what explains the -7.5 WAR gap? Reasons for the gap: Bad managing Strength of opponents (or weakness of 2017 opponents) Clutch hitting/pitching Other outside factors (umpires, weather, etc.) Luck My bad logic We could get into a whole other argument about the job Paul Molitor has done. I'd rather just cover the manager's affect on the games, like: -Situational Hitting (bunting) -Lineup Decisions (lineup placement/resting players) -Bullpen Decisions -Other strategic decisions -Clubhouse Vibe -A bunch of other minor factors There's also the strength of opponents to consider. Even the best teams are going to lose at least 50 games a season, and sometimes the other team is just going to beat you even when your guys play a good game. However, it's debatable that's the problem as the Twins have faced the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers a bunch this season and haven't capitalized on the poor competition. I think a shout-out to situational hitting and pitching is in order. I mentioned Dozier's terrible RISP numbers (.205/.600 OPS) but also with pitchers losing leads (Rodney's 5 busted saves, can't hold a one run lead). The Twins shouldn't be losing so many 1 run games. These stats are just summaries of the players' performances, and they don't explain when and how the runs score and which players are 'clutch' or not. So, in the end, the hitters are definitely dragging this team down, there's no doubt about that. Injuries to Castro, Mauer, Sano, Buxton, Ervin Santana, Polanco's suspension, and others have hurt this team. But just looking at their performances, I think it's safe to say they should absolutely be better than this. Nearly all of the hitters have regressed a shocking amount. I think you can partly blame that 7-8 game gap on Molitor - but you could also pin the -11.5 WAR on the front office, because there's only so much Molly can do. In the end, the Twins need to figure out how to maximize their players and figure out who needs to go (I'm looking at you, Morrison/Dozier/Grossman) and who needs to be fixed (Sano/Buxton/Kepler). The pitching staff has mostly done their part, but maintaining those performances for 2019 will not be as easy as it appears. We assumed the hitters would pick up from where they left off in 2017, but unfortunately they picked up where they left off in the 2016 season. With the front office entering Year 3 and Molitor entering Year 5 in 2019, there are a lot of questions to answer and a whole ton of improvements to be made.

Agreed, I'll address this in part 2. I decided on UZR after doing some reading on it. DRS seemed like a fine option, maybe at some point I'll research them and pick a favorite.