Danchat

Maybe a day off was just what the doctor ordered for the offense! This is more like it!

I'm thinking Littell might stick in the majors as a reliever. I think his chances are a lot better with the uptick in velocity on the fastball. Maybe he'll return as a starter at some point, but in the small sample size we saw, he looked very hittable. Boy, Gonsalves was once the #1 Twins pitching prospect for some people (around 2016/2017?). Injuries do make prospects hard to rate.

That was a Rosario-esque HR from Schoop!

Because Schoop is a good 2B who has helped the Twins get to this point. We have plenty of prospects to trade for pitching, there’s no need to send any major league players away in a trade.

It may be premature to be looking forward to the 2020 season, and while there will be several signings, trades, and transactions to consider, there is one thing I would like to write down at least in pencil - I want Luis Arraez to be the Twins' Opening Day second baseman in 2020. Let's get to some bullet-points that will explain why! - * Note - I got the idea of writing this article around the second week of June, before Arraez was called up again. I just wanted to point out that this wasn't written just because of Luis' current hot streak. I've been sitting on this one for a little while now.* - - (Arraez at Spring Training 2019, image from Twins Daily) - - *-- Luis can flat-out hit - Arraez has a career .331 batting average in the minors, and that's not a number raised by a career year. The lowest that number ever got over a 100 PA sample size is .298. Luis never ran into a roadblock in the minors, besides an injury. It seems like most Twins prospects run into development potholes and obstacles in their journey to the majors, but outside of missing most of the 2017 season with a torn ACL, his performance has always been top-notch. He's also been promoted very aggressively the past two seasons, and has responded well. Arraez is likely going to have to take some lumps in the majors, but I'm willing to bet he'll be able to fare better than most rookie hitters. Arraez has already shined in the big leagues in a very small sample thus far, and one plus is that he's not going to strike out much. In his minor league career, he struck out only 129 times - only 8.1% of the time. He's going to be making frequent contact. - One concern you may have with Arraez's bat is that he doesn't have much power. Only 20.5% of his hits are extra base hits, with just 7 career home runs. That doesn't stack up well to Schoop's career 38.3%, but I don't think it's out of the question Arraez could develop some power as he ages and builds more muscle; he is only 22 years old at this point. Besides, I don't think the Twins need to have power out of every spot in the lineup, not when you can sub a power hitter like Schoop out for a guy who is going to get on base and make contact like Luis. Speaking of that... - *-- On-Base Ability - There was an article on Twins Daily during this past Spring Training that asked how the Twins were going to get on base with so many power hitters. Locking Schoop into the 2B job practically guaranteed a drop in on-base ability as compared to having Dozier there (Schoop's career OBP is .295 as compared to Dozier's .324). The Twins have plenty of power hitters, but they could use more players to knock in. Arraez would be a great option to have to get on base near the bottom of the lineup. Luis has a decent amount of speed, so perhaps putting him in front of Buxton in the lineup would allow for Arraez to score on some of Buxton's many doubles (that is, if they're going to keep Byron at the bottom of the lineup in 2020). - Getting on base has not been a problem for Arraez. Luis' OBP has not dropped under .340 at any level in the minors. While his walk rate is below-average - he's walked 7.7% of the time at all levels combined in his career - he simply hasn't needed to. Arraez has also already drawn 32 walks between all 3 levels he's played at this year, so he's on pace to break his total walks number. More experience will likely lead to more walks for him. - *-- There are Plenty of Fall-Back Options - If the Twins do let Schoop go and give Arraez the job, there are plenty of fall-back options. First off, Marwin Gonzalez will be under contract and he's played plenty of 2B in his career and has been a very good fielder there. And if the Twins would rather keep him in the super-utility role, well, they have another top 10 prospect in Nick Gordon who could fill the spot. Gordon is currently hitting .286/.327/.443 (.770 OPS) at AAA and is already on the 40 man roster, so I don't think it would be a stretch to have him getting an extended chance in the majors in 2020. Gordon's power never developed and he's considered to be a below-average fielder, so he's just below Arraez in my prospects ranking. But it's certainly possible Gordon could pass Luis up, and he'd make for a great fall-back option. (Arraez will also have 2 option years remaining in 2020, so sending him to AAA will always be an option.) - And also - I don't think the Twins need to put free agency money into filling 2B. We have several options, and meanwhile, our pitching staff in 2020 looks very thin on paper. Most of our money should be going towards pitchers in free agency. - *-- Jonathan Schoop is replaceable - To have a better understanding of the situation in a year from now, here is the current status of our hitters in 2019: Under Contract: C Garver C Astudillo 1B Cron (Arb 3) SS Polanco - $3.83M 3B Sano (Arb 2) UTL Gonzalez - $9M UTL Adrianza (Arb 4) RF Kepler - $6.25M CF Buxton (Arb 2) LF Rosario (Arb 2) - Not Under Contract: C Castro 2B Schoop - Most of our positions already seem to be locked up, but 2B appears to be the primary opening. Note: Many have speculated about Polanco moving to 2B, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards. He's been decent enough defensively to stay there, at least in my opinion. - But should the Twins try to re-sign Schoop? It's not as if he's been a liability out there. He's turned out to be what many expected - not as good as his 2017 All-Star form, but miles ahead of his 2018 self. He's got a respectable .259/.308/.469 (.777 OPS) slash at the time of this writing. To evaluate his current body of work as a fielder, I'll turn to the fangraphs fielding metrics to answer that question: - Schoop defensively: Range factor: 11th / 36 (of 2B who have played at least 200 innings there in 2019) Errors: 30th / 36th UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating): 26th / 36 RZR (Revised Zone Rating): .657 (33rd / 36) - Schoop has been a disappointment lately, as compared to his track record in Baltimore as being an above average 2B. It would be hard to imagine that Arraez would be a 'big' downgrade, only potentially a minor one. That aside, I think Schoop could earn a moderately-sized deal in free agency if he finishes the 2018 season without any major slumps or hot streaks, perhaps something around 3 years, $36M total (there aren't many contracts given to 2B that I can base it from). - While the Twins could absolutely afford that amount of cash for Schoop, as I've already mentioned, the Twins need to keep their books open to sign some pitchers. Odorizzi, Gibson, and Pineda will all hit free agency and Martin Perez likely will too, unless the Twins want to pay him $7.5M in 2020. Figuring out what to do there sounds like another article for another time! - *-- Potential Concerns - Outside of a couple concerns I've already measured, there are two more points I'd like to bring up that could be considered concerns for Arraez. First is his fielding. I don't have any advanced minor league fielding numbers, but from what I've read on Twins Daily, it would seem that Luis is a 2B-only player and he's a liability at all other positions. I can tell you that he's made just 19 errors in his minor league career, which composes of 2,060 innings, which is a very low number, but that doesn't tell me much. MLB.com gave him a ranking of Arm: 50 and Field: 45 (which are scored between 20 and 80). Methinks he should turn out as an average defensive 2B. (source: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=min) - My other concern is a simple lack of experience and volume of play in the minors. After playing partial seasons at age 17 and 18, his plate appearances since 2016 look like this: 2016: 514 PAs 2017: 13 PAs (torn ACL) 2018: 453 PAs 2019: 285 PAs - That's not a huge body of work, and I wonder if Arraez could struggle a little with a bigger workload as an everyday 2B. But with Marwin to rotate in and out and Nick Gordon potentially coming through, it's not like Arraez will need to soak up 600+ PAs in 2020. - *-- Conclusion - I didn't know much about Luis before this season, but since Spring Training I've dove into his scouting profile and I like what I see. He looks ready to face major league pitching at age 22 with only 2 full seasons of play in the minors under his belt. I'm not expecting the kid to hit .300 with 100+ runs in 2020, but I think the Twins would be wise to groom him as the future 2B and they will be rewarded with a very good ballplayer. - Thoughts?

Oh, I didn't even realize Jaylin Davis was in AAA! I need to start reading up on the scouting reports on this kid. I would be A-OK with trading some of our outfielder prospects for MLB players. We have a solid collection of center fielders to corner outfielders at the high minors and low minors. And our MLB squad already has 3 good OFs, so let's supplement our weaknesses by trading what we have in excess.

Everything here looks pretty good, though Celestino's stats suggest to me that he is overmatched at the moment. I wonder if Raley would be in the majors right now if not for the ankle surgery.

I didn't realize how good of a season Hendriks was having last year. Opening that game against the Yankees in the playoffs last year painted a negative picture in my mind, but he's a good reliever. I also don't see the A's moving him as they're 3 games above .500 at the moment and are likely to be in a race for the wild card.

Methinks they need another good starter to be “indisputably” the best.

I'm still hoping for Alcala to be moved to the bullpen. I think that's where he's going to make his dough in the majors.

Arraez is a passable 2B but is considered to be subpar at all other positions as well - Astudillo can catch and hit a lot of singles, which is something most backup catchers can't do. But thankfully Astudillo has options and we can afford to move him up and down. With the lineup cold right now, Baldelli needs to pencil Arraez into the lineup at an almost-everyday basis in my humble opinion. I wish he could play 3B better 'cause I'd certainly replace Sano with him for the time being.

He's absolutely on the menu, but Twins Daily hasn't gotten around to getting an article out for him. They probably should do that soon.

It's a good thing ugly wins are just as valuable as dominating wins!

Your weird dream also included Astudillo pinch-running for Garver.

As long as his injury isn't bad, I would be looking very closely into getting Giles. I think he's far enough removed from the fiasco in Houston to be a concern.

Finally, Sano! FINALLY!!!! Also, did anyone notice that Maldonado set up down and in and he threw it up and away? Not taking anything away from Sano, but that pitch wasn't even close to where it was supposed to be. Perhaps we can scratch Diekman off our reliever trade list.

Are they really the better team? Clevinger is hurt again, Kluber's out, most of their lineup is still mediocre... and Trevor Bauer just threw a 4 inning 5 run "gem" against the lowly Tigers. Brad Hand is currently giving up a run in the 9th as well.

Cave since his call-up: 0 for 15, 8 Ks, 2 HBPs, 0 BBs. Yikes!

I've never understood the Twins fan rationale of "this player sucks, trade him now!" If the player is playing poorly you're not going to get a good return on him, which to me defeats the purpose of a trade.

I'm shocked I haven't had that thought before, but you're totally right. Sano and Cave's helpless flailing do remind me of Davis.

Sano and Cave have no hope at the plate - they just can't make contact with anything. Junis is struggling out there and yet he looks untouchable against them. This is infuriating to watch.

Um, what? Thorpe tops out around 93-92 mph and has had a poor season at AAA. For as bad as Perez has been, Thorpe has a 5.40 ERA at AAA and it'd probably be over 6 in the majors if/when he pitches.

I've been more of an optimist on the game threads recently, but boy our pitching and defense has been flat-out embarrassing thus far. This poor fielding has gotten contagious lately!

I don't think there's been enough appreciation for how good our catchers have been at throwing out runners. Castro and Garver have been fantastic at that and you rarely see teams running on Twins pitching. I don't miss the days of runners running all over Suzuki's arm.

The strength of the minors the past couple years has come from the lower levels, and hopefully we'll see more talented kids get up to AA and AAA. I think we're seeing more of it with the hitters (Arraez and Gordon, Raley was on track before the surgery).