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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Don't bait.
  2. Willihammer
    What possible analytics could suggest Sano has a chance to be above average at any position in the field? If this is the final decision then it is 100% about P&L and 0% about W&L.
  3. Willihammer
    I think this is interesting. Back in 1992 the market had been on a bull run similar to today's: http://i.imgur.com/1TCdAjP.jpg Just like today, it was trading at 25x earnings. If you had sold at that point you would have missed out on the run it made from 1992 to 2000 (when the market really did create a bubble):
  4. Willihammer
    Ah. Yeah it is high but (I know I sound like a broken record) with interest rates historically low, we should expect that to be the case. This article does a good job describing the correlation between P/E and interest rates: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/much-interest-rates-affect-markets-222845806.html This is the tl;dr:
  5. Willihammer
    You gotta do what you gotta do but I'd be curious to know what exactly in the fundamentals has you worried.
  6. Willihammer
    Man 2 seems like an inappropriate charge but I'm assuming the prosecutor settled on it because he believes he has the best shot of convicting with that charge. One reason he might chose Man 2 over murder (I'm speculating obviously, I'm no lawyer either) is because it would be difficult to prove that Officer Yanez didn't have a reason to believe his life was in danger. If he had reason to believe his life was in danger then he is allowed to shoot. I don't know if "believing" he saw a weapon in Castille's hand would be enough to meet that criteria, or even if he could defend that belief owing to the fact that Yanez gave conflicting accounts about what he saw.
  7. Willihammer
    That is strange, most people thought it was a close contest.
  8. Willihammer
    I'm guessing the charge is due to the question around whether Yanez saw Castille holding an object before he shot him. I believe his training would have allowed him to shoot Castille if he had an eyeball on a weapon in Castille's hand but not if he didn't see anything. Yanez gave conflicting reports on weather he saw an object.
  9. Willihammer
    How many times in the last 100 years have we had an extended run of zero or near-zero interest rates?
  10. Willihammer
    In the short term the #1 thing I would keep an eye on is inflation. We are going to get a rate hike at the Dec meeting of 1/4 percent - that's already been priced in. If the Fed were to raise rates 1/2% or higher it would shake the markets a bit, but the Fed would only do that because of higher than expected inflation. But reports such as this one suggest inflationary pressure is still low.
  11. Willihammer
    Based on?
  12. Willihammer
    If Trump's policies do cause a spike in inflation, which the market is pricing in somewhat as bond yields are creeping up, then investors will flood out of the market into safer asset. But as far as entering a recession I see no sign of that.
  13. Willihammer
    I'd still like to hear what Glunn has to say but regarding the above: GDP grew 2.9% last quarter, the highest of Obama's administration. Inflation is still really low. Running deficits in a near ZIRP environment is not a huge deal, and it can be an economic stimulus. "We're overdue" I disagree. If anything we're overdue for >3% growth which has been the historical norm.
  14. Willihammer
    Why do you think there will be a recession?
  15. Willihammer
    Musk has about 900 different ventures going on and I do worry about how much time he is or isn't devoting to TSLA. But I have 100% confidence in him, the man has vision and aims incredibly high. He is Steve Jobs 2.0 IMO. TSLA is down and GM is up. The market likes gas prices to stay low, due to a strong dollar and pro-shale policies keeping the supply glut up. That will be good for GM's SUVs. TSLA is taking a hit, good time to get in. Gas prices are a secondary concern for its target market.
  16. Willihammer
    Yeah the market is anticipating a pickup of inflation under Trump. Oil I would stay away from.
  17. Willihammer
    I lived on Raisin Bran during high school wrestling. It was one of the foods that I could gorge on and still meet weight because of its, uh, cleansing qualities.
  18. Willihammer
    IMO this election was about: 5% the economy 10% SCOTUS 15% race/women/social issues 70% sticking it to your goddang son/neighbor/aunts on FB
  19. Willihammer
    I feel like the Twins, at least publicly, have emphasized fastball command / first pitch strikes for as long as I've been a fan.
  20. Willihammer
    That is such BS.
  21. Willihammer
    His value might be peaked, but teams aren't buying his 40HR output as anything more than a career year. Combined with an oversupply of 4+ WAR 2Bs. Maybe we hang on to Dozier another year. If he repeats with a 30+ HR season, and the 2B supply thins out next offseason?
  22. Willihammer
    "Big league arm" is kinda vague. Jeff Manship is a big league arm.
  23. Willihammer
    http://www.twincities.com/2016/11/08/minnesota-twins-dealing-brian-dozier-not-as-easy-as-it-sounds/
  24. Willihammer
    The amendment passed BTW, with 76.6% voting yes http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/minnesota I'd love to see this move paired with a haircut on the # of reps. Go unicameral.
  25. Willihammer
    Yeah it doesn't help anybody if they get off on the wrong foot. They have at least one season together. What they do after 2017 will be interesting tho. Maybe they can find a manager with better leadership qualities so they dont' have to burn roster spots on token veterans.
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