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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Shields' velocity gain suggests his arm is well and he and can be counted on to be pitching at the trade deadline, and probably pitching well. Span's concussion history on the other hand, suggests he may be the bigger injury risk. Every year there are are pitchers on all-in clubs that go down with TJ's or torn labrums. So there would be nothing to stop the Twins trading Shields at the deadline for prospects or whatever if the season goes south early and there is a buyer out there desperate for pitching. Heck, they could flip him yet this winter.
  2. Willihammer
    There is an easy fix to this. Due to Revere's extreme contact proficiency,it is more beneficial for him to simply stop swinging when he gets ahead in the count, and avoid terminating his at-bat prematurely by putting a ball in play. Specifically if he avoided swinging on all 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 counts, I believe he could raise his OBP .040 or .050 points or more overnight. I made some rough calculations to arrive at that conclusion here:
  3. Willihammer
    Ya how can we get Republicans fired up to come out and vote. I know, gays and terrorists. Let's amend the constitution while we're at it. What a joke. The Dems were no better in the last exercise. You like clean water? Let's paste a sales tax into the constitution, that's a sensible way to budget for the next dozen bienniums.
  4. Willihammer
    We did the same. Got up there Friday and uncle Joe already had about a 5 drink head start on us. "Take the 4 wheeler and put out some apples over there by the clearing," he tells me. Not an hour later there's a 8 pointer standing there, tail down. Evidently Uncle Joe had gotten him into a habit. So he grabs the .338 and sits himself on the picnic table outside the garage. My brother who lived in Seattle for the past 10 years talked him out of it, luckily. "Save some for us deer virgins." So okay he puts it down. Joe paid us back Sunday morning though. We are just about to head in for the day, pack up and make the 4 hour car ride south to the cities when bang. 50 pound spike buck, great. Oh, Uncle Joe also happens to be allergic to deer so guess who had to dress it, skin it, and butcher it. That venison meat up in St Louis county tastes like dogsht anyway. I'm done with deer hunting.
  5. Willihammer
    They may even take cash. They also need a first baseman. The Twins don't necessarily have to give up their best prospects, In fact, according to John's source, they may even trade for Span straight up. But we don't even know what the Rays are asking for at this point really
  6. Willihammer
    xFIP needs qualifying for both pitchers in this case. It assumes a league average HR/FB rate, and Shields' has fluctuated more than most pitchers. But Shield's would seem to have noticed since he has found a way to reduce his FB rate and increase his GB rate in the last two seasons in order to minimize the effect of HR/FB variability. For Marcum, some of his value is tied up in Fielding Dependent Pitching which explains at least partly why his ERA consistently outperforms his xFIP. Marcum has 6.5 career FDP wins to Shields' -.5. The bottom line is Shields would probably require less money, less years, and is trending into a better pitcher while showing none of the possible signs of injury Marcum is showing, namely elbow soreness. Marcum can't even get a qualifying offer from the Brewers, who have money to spend. So even if you don't buy that Shields is the better talent, he is at worst equivalent while being cheaper and less risky.
  7. Willihammer
    I don't see who would offer him that. Reports are that the Rangers aren't interested in that kind of deal. There is some belief that the Red Sox might move Ellsbury to make room for Hamilton, but Hamilton is not a true CF and the Red Sox are supposed to be trying to clean up their act. The Dodgers have Kemp and Ethier, and the Angels have more outfielders still. That would leave the Yankees as the last major player. Swisher is expected to deny his qualifying offer, so that opens right field. My prediction: 7/155 to the Yankees with a player option for 8th and 9th year activated by performance thresholds.
  8. Willihammer
    The most team friendly part of Span's team-friendly contract has passed. For comparison, the Rays are getting about 1 Win/$1m spent on their core players. Unless you think Span is going to rattle off 10 wins in the next two seasons, he'll probably need to be packaged with someone else or cash to get a decent SP in return, esp. one who is young and/or relatively cheap. That is before even considering things like his concussion issues or age.
  9. Willihammer
    I wonder if the Rays would take a Span-Morneau package where the Twins ate maybe $7m of Morneau's salary. That would be a neutral move payroll-wise.
  10. Willihammer
    I'm going to go out on a limb and predict the reigning champs will repeat.
  11. Willihammer
    What kind of inflation in the RP market are we looking at if Brandon League is commanding 3/22 before even hitting FA? I think this sort of production can be Rule 5'd or picked off waivers.
  12. Willihammer
    I am reading this book Game of Thrones by George R R Martin. Not a t.v. show but it is a page turner!
  13. Willihammer
    One of the sweetest moments from the Jr interview. John: Hardy scores outstanding in defensive metrics. Jr: He does? Unreal.
  14. Willihammer
    Youkilis with bursitis in knee and hip. He is wincing all the time out there, can't run worth a damn, and would need daily cortisone shots probably and lots of breaks and/or DL time. This is a FO that abandoned Hardy because "he was never on the field," they will never spend the money to snap up Youk, thankfully.
  15. Willihammer
    Bill Petti at Fangraphs has an interesting series on velocity trends and age. The gist of it is that pitchers who lose 1mph or more year over year are at a higher risk for further velocity loss and ineffectualness in year 3. Petti used as his sample all pitchers who pitched in 3 consecutive seasons between 2002 and 2011 in the same role (either SP or RP): Haren and Santana both fall into this group, having lost 1.3 and 1.0 mph off their fastballs, respectively. By contrast, James Shields has actually gained a full 1.0 mph on his fastball year over year, and there's a very good chance he maintains some or all of that gain next year. He is a much more appealing trade target I think. I'm sure Haren would never have it, but I'd be tempted to put him into a fireman role. With his splitter, he has virtually no lefty-righty split and a move to the pen would almost guarantee a velocity gain more or less equivalent to what he lost last year. Give him ~40 7th or 8th inning leads and just let him close out the game, finish the year around 100 IP. One quick shot through the batting order.
  16. Willihammer
    You have to wonder how much 13 straight years of 200+ IP has worn him down, but who knows, Buehrle seems like a guy who could still have some value in his 40s, if he escapes injuries. His contract is not cheap but I wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms it either. Heck at this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in the HoF
  17. Willihammer
    The Angels only want to hedge in the event that Greinke signs elsewhere. If the Angels do lock Greinke up later this winter, they may dump one or both of the option guys just for the salary relief and bring in some bullpen guys. Who knows, maybe they'd take Alex Burnett off our hands.
  18. Willihammer
    Its an interesting idea, but there is the question of what you'd have to give up in order to acquire one or both of them. Two things the Angels don't need are first basemen or center fielders, so that means prospects of our own.
  19. Willihammer
    There would be more flexibility to fine tune their roster if Mauer played some 3b. Gardy seemed open to it at the season ticket holder conference. If Jr wants to create competition at the hot corner, there's his man. Stick Plouffe at 1B against lefthanded starters and they'd have even more flexibility to bring in a righthanded corner infield bat.
  20. Willihammer
    Pitching is an injury risk. And when a guy experiences velocity decline, like we saw with Pavano this year, it may indicate injury. What you should be paying a guy for is expected production, and not what he he already done for other teams. Personally, I'd project Baker to put together a better 3 year stretch then either Marcum or Haren based on his prior injury history being elbow related and that having just been addressed.
  21. Willihammer
    The market may be saying that. Jr is certainly saying that, in order to fetch free agent starting pitching you have to offer multi-year deals. If you are going to decline the option, that makes Baker a FA.
  22. Willihammer
    It is a risk but would you rather have 3 years committed to Marcum who is coming off 124 innings and shoulder soreness? What about Haren or Dempster who are coming off significant velocity decline, or jeremy Guthrie who has the ceiling of a 2009 Nick Blackburn and the floor of 2011 Nick Blackburn? I'll gamble on the strikeout pitcher fresh off of TJ every time.
  23. Willihammer
    What about Shemp?
  24. Willihammer
    I think the Twins need to talk frankly with Morneau about why he struggled so mightily against lefthanders last year. Whether his post concussion symptoms, blurred vision and dizziness, namely, are factors. I don't buy that he can miss the better part of 18 months and then turn into an everyday player overnight. They will need to bring in a righthanded power bat to hold 1B if, as I suspect, the new splits are permanent. No team can afford that kind of lousy production from the 1B against lefthanders.
  25. Willihammer
    I will not vote till someone pledges a program to carpet bomb the country with condoms and morning after pills and Mifepristone.
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