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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    whydidn't i think I found what you found. In memory of the old Coors Field - Baseball Nation
  2. Willihammer
    I think most people are stoning Jr.
  3. Willihammer
    In any case, the QS% argument is a little disingenuous because you're looking at 1 year of data in a 10 year career, and it happens to be Correia's career low in BABIP year, and career high in GB% year. Over the last 10 years, Correia's QS% is 46%, which is 4% worse than MLB average (probably 6-7% worse than the NL average). If you can prove Correia did something that should allow him to sustain a lower BABIP and higher GB rate, then you would have a point. All I see is an anomalous fluctuation in batted balls. edit: and obviously that's before accounting for the fact that he's played in the NL, and in some pretty cavernous home ballparks for most his career.
  4. Willihammer
    I've seen this sentiment in other threads about the Correia signing also. Can someone explain how overpaying a guy by somewhere between 2 and 10 times is a sign of cheapness or an attempt to save money? Is paying $50,000 for a used Ford Focus a sign that I'm trying to save money? You're too cheap to fork over an extra $5000 and drive a Navigator. I think that's the idea.
  5. Willihammer
    The only track record Correia's established is that he is a luck-dependent replacement level talent, who has only had the opportunity to throw a lot of innings on some very lousy teams.
  6. Willihammer
    No defense can keep balls in the park. We are talking about a guy who posted a 5.40 ERA playing in Petco park in front of a defense which, according to UZR, saved 50 runs. The year before, same park, and an ERA of 3.91 in front of a defense that cost the team 10 runs. There isn't much, if any correlation between Correia's ERA and the quality of the defenses he was pitching in front of. Instead you will find the correlation is stronger between HR/FB, and ERA (and IP). This is a 10 million gamble on batted ball luck, make no mistake about it.
  7. Willihammer
    It is absolutely doable, even with a replacement level performance from Correia. It makes the signing all the more perplexing, because it only reduces the Twins flexibility to make a midseason acquisition if things do go right.
  8. Willihammer
    I don't mean to step on your guys' work here, and I'll pull down the post if you want. But it is appropriate to the discussion I think: From John's interview in the handbook
  9. Willihammer
    Worley and Correia?
  10. Willihammer
    If the Bears beat the Packers next week, and the Vikings win, there's a reasonable chance the Vikings could still take the division via the 3rd tie break (w-l % in common games), providing the Bears go on to lose in Detroit, and the Packers lose in Minnesota in the final week, while each winning their weak 16 games (and the vikings winning out). In this case, the Bears and Packers would go to the 5th, or even 6th or 7th tie breaks for any wildcard spot. Here is one scenario http://i.imgur.com/7yuts.png
  11. Willihammer
    Even that Aromashadou ball was a little underthrown. Has Ponder overthrown a wide out on a deep pattern all year, even once? Some people want a deep threat - I wonder if Ponder has the arm for a deep threat. He is constantly throwing behind guys on their routes.
  12. Willihammer
    Considering who will likely pitch in their stead in 2013, and 2014 and 2015 for that matter, yes. With a few breaks and a little luck health-wise, the Twins could have been competitive in 2013 and 2014, or at least, more competitive. Obviously, there is risk in all 3. But it didn't take huge longterm deals to get any of these guys. And, Justin Verlander could get hurt too. Chris Sale had a sore elbow last year, Peavy is always a risk. Everyone is a year older, some guys will break down. It works both ways. At the very least, when you tell 22,000 people who have already bought season ticket packages, that you are going to field a competitive team, you should get the guys who, if the breaks go your way, are talented enough to deliver on your promise. I will happily eat crow if Ryan goes out and get Sanchez and Jackson, but that is not looking likely. Instead, if the rumors are to be believed, he is chasing 4 bottom feeders who even if healthy aren't talented enough to put this team into contention. That, would be money wasted.
  13. Willihammer
    When Jr says "the Twins can't give their money away," I don't believe him. Baker 1/5.5 McCarthy 2/15.5 Blanton 2/15 The Twins could have pitched a signing bonus to all 3 equaling 50% of their 2013 salary, and they would have paid $30m next year, and only be on the hook for 15.5m in 2014. They could have offered each an additional year of guaranteed money, incentives, no trade clauses, vesting options, whatever. They could have gotten more creative to get even 1 of these guys. I can't believe all 3 turned down deals from the Twins that were better than what they ended up signing for.
  14. Willihammer
    Then what, move Hanley back to SS and stick Uribe at 3B? Is there a replacement for one of Gordon/Ramirez, besides Uribe?
  15. Willihammer
    Except that righthanders tee off on those lefthanders in Target Field, especially soft tossers like Saunders and Lannan. Pass, pass, pass, and pass. We have enough of these guys already that we can pay league min. for. Put the money into something else of roll it over into next year's free agent class. Most of the realistic, 2nd tier guys with a little upside are off the table already. That's what a soft trigger finger gets you.
  16. Willihammer
    If the Dodgers were really high on Willingham and low on Crawford, might they be interested in a trade. I don't see any other player on the Twins roster that presents an upgrade for the Dodgers. For it to be worth the Twins while, they would have to get at least two of those pitchers in return, I think.
  17. Willihammer
    What is Jr supposed to say about Blackburn, "he's starting in AAA next year. Instead, we're going to fling another 4-5mil on an identical pitcher in Myers/Correia/Saunders?" Go back and look at John's list. http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?2239-Shift-In-Free-Agency-Strategy-Doesn-t-Favor-The-Minnesota-Twins There's a very short list of guys left with upside who should be cheap, chiefly, Liriano. There are some guys who might do okay converting to a relief role, and then there are a whole bunch of red flags and over the hill guys, and the 2 or 3 top tier guys.
  18. Willihammer
    Span and Revere aren't on the team anymore. If the Twins can deal Willingham for pitching, then they may find Bourn or Hamilton would provide as great, or a greater upgrade over their replacement, than Marcum, Jackson, or Sanchez would be to the rotation, for the money. But, almost certainly, Bourn or Hamilton would be a greater upgrade, for the money, than would those pitcher in the 3rd tier who are essentially replacement level guys already - Correia, Myers, Saudners. The Twins have plenty of replacement or near-replacement starting pitchers already
  19. Willihammer
    Let's hope Doumit can frame that pitch!
  20. Willihammer
    I think it could happen, if the Twins first thinned out remaining buyers by dealing Mastro, Willingham, and possibly Hicks. NYY: want to stay under the cap by 2014 = no big multiyear deals to Bourn or Hamilton TX: Full outfield if dealt Willingham. LA: Full outfield LAD: Full outfield There were three or 4 teams in on Revere, according to Lavelle. The Phils have invested in Revere so they are out on Bourn. Of the remaining teams, possibly one could be sold on Mastroianni. After that, Willingham should be able to deal to TX, as they seem less than thrilled with the prospect of 4 more years of Josh Hamilton. It would be risky. It would leave the Twins with no outfielders, but it would make them the big fish, in arguably the best spot to make offers to Bourn and/or Hamilton.
  21. Willihammer
    At this point, I'm asking myself: who is left wanting outfielders? Texas isn't going to go more than 4 yrs for Hamilton. The Twins could deal Willingham to TX and take the Rangers out of the picture. The buyers for Bourn, last rumor I read anyway, were Phili and Seattle. Would the M's take Mastroianni? That would soak up two buyers, and put the Twins in a position to make lowball offers to Bourn and Hamilton.
  22. Willihammer
    I guess they have been dangling these two guys for a few days: http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-talk/Phillies-dangle-Worley-May-as-trade-chip?blockID=809865&feedID=693 Good deal for both teams.
  23. Willihammer
    http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=40172882&&content_id=25517943
  24. Willihammer
    2/15 for Blanton? That's not bad.
  25. Willihammer
    Those are infield hit percentages, meaning balls fielded without error and no out recorded. BABIP on ground balls will be higher. Heck, Mauer's was .285 last year, although I don't know what Revere's was. But, that reminds me of another peanut stat - reaching base on error, where Revere had 8, Aoki had 13. Mauer had 4, Willingham had 5, by comparison. Just another marginal benefit of speed that doesn't even get factored into BAv or OBP, although they are obviously recorded as at-bats.
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