Willihammer

Why would Correia think that? Last year, the Twins DFA'd Jason Marquis after 7 starts to make room for Cole DeVries. The Twins made an offer to Correia that was competitive. That's why Correia, Pelfrey, and Harden are here, and not Marcum or anyone else. Look at the no-trade clauses of the guys traded this winter. Upton had on his Seattle, Toronto, Boston and the Chicago Cubs. Asdrubal had on his, the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Giants, Nats, and Mets. It is possible any given FA doesn't want to play in MN. Its highly unlikely that an entire crop of FAs doesn't want to play in MN. No, but it doesn't take a genius to recognize patterns. 2013 looks an awful lot like 2012. So either Jr expects better results this time, or the timeline for his plan is so stretched out that he's willing to punt 2 or more seasons before it kicks in. That's not acceptable, not when there's $20m or more still on the table.

Obviously people have preferences where they want to play, that's why agents bargain for things like limited no-trade clauses. One local boy the Twins missed out on was Edwin Jackson, he was born in Neu-Ulm.

He's all that's left!

This sort of thing makes my blood boil If the offer is truly for just 1 year, then, I don't know, maybe its not Minnesota. Maybe its the offer! edit: no, wait. Correia turned down more money to come to Minnesota. Therefore, Minnesota must be in fact, more desirable than other places. So much more desirable, in fact, that FAs should just play here for a discount even though there's not payroll restriction anyway.

Source: Twins want Joe Saunders on 1-year deal, waiting to hear back | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins According to Darren Wolfson's source

http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g301/Jak_Phreak/seinfeld.gif

Even if his health is extremely suspect, which I believe it is, what Is there stopping the Twins, or any other GM, offering, a contract with multiple clauses, comparable to the Delmon deal. $5m signing bonus 4 starts in April = first incentive kicks in 4 starts in May = 2nd incentive kicks in etc. or something along those lines.

The only thing more ridiculous than trying to project win totals for 2013 is trying to project win totals beyond 2013. I've linked to this before, but here it is again. A compilation of 5 projections going back 2 years.https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pIzP28qdp-TWNCNWNIVHA1NVk/edit Something to think about, is how actual wins have compared to pythagoran wins (ie. (runs scored)^1.83 / ((runs scored)^1.83 + (runs allowed)^1.83). The standard deviation over this period is 3.85 wins. Meaning, about 5 teams every year can be counted on to finish 4 games or worse than their pythagorean record. In the same way, 5 seemingly random teams will finish 4 games or better than their pythagorean record. So if the Tigers are a 87 win team again, and the Twins are a 68 win team again (by Pythagorean record), there's about a 1.4% chance that the Twins finish at 73 wins or better, and the Tigers finish at 82 wins, or worse. And there's a .62% chance the Twins finish 8 games better than their Pythagorean record, while the Tigers finish 7 games worse - 76 wins to 80 wins. And that's with no improvement from the Twins roster whatsoever (or decline), and no improvement or decline overall from the Tigers team either over last year. If the Twins improve their pythagorean record by just 5 wins, and the Tigers repeat their 87 pythagorean wins, then there is a small but real chance the Twins steal the division just by shear random pythagorean luck. If the Twins post a pythagorean record of 78, that is, ten games better than 2012, as Gunnarthor suggests the Twins would by simply eliminating the 80 lousy starts by our AAA guys and replace them with 80 starts of replacement level (0 WAR) production, then the Twins are looking at roughly a 4% chance of posting an actual win total that's higher than any 87 Pythagorean win team. Obviously, were Jr to bring in guys who actually produce at a positive WAR, you are only increasing your odds further.

Say the Tigers are the 2013 version of the 2011 Twins.

I'm hopeful too. Anyone who's struck a fastball on the trademark can imagine how a thumb injury would put a damper on your swing. As long as he's healed...

With nothing but money and time, this is how I imagine a ballplayer spends his offseason Funny Fishing Compilation With Bill Dance - YouTube

You can't make this stuff up. Anything can happen.

Jr has added Worley to the rotation. Correia is being paid like a MLB starter but his career profile suggests he's an indistinguishable talent from Jason Marquis. Pelfrey or Harden are both coming off major injury, much like Joel Zumaya was in 2011. Correia could run into some great batted ball and fly ball luck, and Pelfrey could recover early and post 100 plus qualitty innings, and Harden could find a way to pitch effectively and avoid injury. And the middle infield could fall into place and Burton might get through another full season without injury and Perkins could stay healthy and Alex Burnett could post another 3.5 ERA over 80 IP despite a K/BB ratio near 1:1. All that might happen, sure. But a little margin for error, some depth, would be nice.

They did fire the head trainer. Maybe that wasn't enough

Here's a question: Why haven't the Twins and Pavano inked another contract?

Here is the thing, a PA with no outs and nobody on base is twice as important as a PA with 2 outs and nobody on base, and 50% more important than a PA with 1 out and nobody on base. So, if you want to argue that your best OBP guy should be hitting anywhere other than leadoff, you need to prove that he will produce enough times with enough men on base to justify forfeiting all those no out-no men on, 1st inning PAs.

I think Jr's intentionally mystifying the process, if anything. Correia's a guy who doesn't walk many or strike many out. Its as simple as that. Btw, Jr said "I don't think we overpaid drastically," which to me sounds like he accepts that they overpaid somewhat. Whatever market inefficiency there might have been that undervalued low walk/low strikeout guys, its not there anymore.

I don't understand how scouting could even enter the equation. We're talking about a 10 year pro. The only possible information edge that the Twins might have here is the reference to the ballpark. Maybe someone saw a spray chart and thinks Target Field will contain some of the HRs that otherwise would be gone at AT&T, PNC, and Petco. If that's the case, color me dubious.

The thing about projections is none of them are very good. Look at the 2011 and 2012 PECOTA, CAIRO, Marcel, Oliver, and ZiPS projections. I got the final editions for most of them here. https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pIzP28qdp-TWNCNWNIVHA1NVk/edit We all know the Orioles and A's outperformed everyone's 2012 projections, but the Red Sox underperformed by just as much. People seem to forget that as many teams underperform their projections, as overperform. There were teams spread all over in 2011 as well (Twins, Tigers, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Rockies, Marlins, Orioles, Phillies, Nationals - all finished 10 games or further from most of these projections.) This is not a knock on people who like to follow prospects, and none of these projections are forecasting beyond the next season, but if they were, I think its safe to say that they would be even more off, to the point where they would be almost totally meaningless. Its for this reason that I think you really have to weigh immediate gains more heavily than future ones. Nevermind what is going on with your own players, there are teams underperforming by 20 games or more every year and creating random windows that nobody can possibly see coming

Great, now we have a meaningful starting point for comparison that includes Butera and 2012 data. If you use fangraphs' weight runs created, Butters is worth .04 runs per PA. Doumit is worth .13 runs per PA, and Mauer, .16. If you assume 4 PAs per game, that works out to .16 against Doumit's .52, and Mauer's .64. Subtract defensive runs cost due to pitch framing, and youre looking at something like Butera: 0.12 net runs Doumit: 0.16 net runs Mauer: 0.75 net runs Obviously that's before you add in any runs saved or lost by catching baserunners. edit: math

I have not read any concrete numbers but I assume the Yankees will be interested in Diaz due to his status

An interesting study on pitcher height and its correlation with durability and effectiveness: Does a Pitcher?s Height Matter? | SABR

I have a Bushmaster AR-15. The barrel weighs a ton, its very unwieldy in my opinion. I mounted a by-pod to it with a 30x scope and use it to hunt prairie dogs and coyotes.

I can only look at the two periods where it was clear that Butera was being requested as personal catcher, and in both cases, the results were very good. The other period being July 2010 - Sept 2011 where Butera was Pavano's PC. I do think there is a rhythm that some batterymates can get into. Liriano and Mauer were in rhythm for all of 2010. It certainly helped that Mauer was healthy enough to catch all those starts. When these periods of sustained pitching success happen, you don't fiddle with it, even when the guy's bat is as lousy as Butera's. And, for what its worth, nobody on the staff achieved a similar period of sustained success with Doumit catching him. then again, maybe guys like PJ Walters and Cole DeVries, just aren't capable of achieving a similar, prolonged period of success with any catcher. Its difficult to tell.

I looked at 2011. Its not good, but there's no data to compare to Doumit. I don't know whether, on balance, Butera has a better catching track record compared to Doumit. That's a tough question to answer, let alone assign a run value to. And it may not be conclusive due to Butera being a part-timer anyway. But, we've seen guys request Butera for their personal catcher before. Why? Maybe he's a better pitch framer. Maybe guys tend to keep the ball down to him since he's the smallest of the 3 catchers. Maybe they prefer Butera's pitch selection. Maybe Liriano just had a great bullpen session with Butera before being reinstated as a starter, they had a rythm or something. It could be anything, or nothing. I just see a guy rattle off the kind of 2 month stretch Liriano had last year, which included a 15k/ 1 BB start, a 10k start, and a bunch of other quality starts, and where he threw to literally nobody else except Butera that entire time and never threw to him again either before it or after it that year, and it gets my attention.