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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Last fall I read somewhere that Twins season ticket renewals were at 81% already. I can't find the source. But if true, it opens the possibility that the Twins decided early to sandbag 2013 so that as TF's honeymoon wears off, they can invest the savings in a more earnest attempt at supplementing whatever roster holes have emerged by 2015 or whenever this new class of minimum wage all-stars is ready. The problem with that of course is the Twins longstanding claim to put 50% of revenue into payroll on a year to year basis, without regard to prior years.
  2. Willihammer
    I think 4. was their plan, and also to shop Span and Revere for pitching prospects. Ryan has a philosophical objection to free agency but when forced to dip into it, his strategy has always been to wait and pick up cheap filler pieces in the weeks before p&c's report. That he signed Corriea in December, and not the last weeks of January, suggests to me that Correia had something like a 1/7m offer from someone else. KC maybe (for 2 reasons. 1. KC had already overpaid for Guthrie at 3/25, and the Myers-Shields trade was announced about the same time the Twins and Correia agreed on a contract.) Thus "Correia left more money on the table." Possibly the reason was the same for signing Pelfrey relatively early. Maybe the Mets were willing to give him $2m or even match, but Pelfrey liked the opportunity in MN more than in NY. Jr has said all along that you don't build winners out of free agency. So instead of going after meaningful upgrades to the rotation, his main objective going into the offseason was to shop Span and Revere so that the team could build internally. That's the only way Jr will do it. He doesn't seem to care about wins and losses from one season to the next.
  3. Willihammer
    I've said it before and I"ll say it again. The only thing more meaningless than the 2013 projections, be they PECOTA, ZiPS, Marcel, or Bob's Roto Garage League projections, are the 2014 projections. And the only thing more meaningless than those, are the 2015 projections. edit: In case anyone wants to revisit 2011 and 2012 projections. https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pIzP28qdp-TWNCNWNIVHA1NVk/edit
  4. Willihammer
    Specifically a lefthanded one.
  5. Willihammer
    Parker wrote a piece that suggested Mauer did benefit from batting behind speedy baserunners, specifically, on ground balls that he pulled. Twins Daily - Joe Mauer pulled through in 2012
  6. Willihammer
    And, as you'd expect, Correia is just as bad [TABLE=width: 181] Split OPS 1st PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.725[/TD] 2nd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.722[/TD] 3rd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.868[/TD] 4th+ PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]1.083[/TD] [/TABLE]
  7. Willihammer
    Outs will tend to be harder to get as guys see more of your pitches, yes, but those numbers suggest to me that his future is in relief. By comparison Joe Saunders [TABLE=width: 172] Split OPS 1st PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.77[/TD] 2nd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.747[/TD] 3rd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.778[/TD] 4th+ PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.72[/TD] [/TABLE] Anibal [TABLE=width: 181] Split OPS 1st PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.697[/TD] 2nd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.648[/TD] 3rd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.81[/TD] 4th+ PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.679[/TD] [/TABLE] McCarthy [TABLE=width: 181] Split OPS 1st PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.694[/TD] 2nd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.712[/TD] 3rd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.759[/TD] 4th+ PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.766[/TD] [/TABLE] Marcum [TABLE=width: 180] Split OPS 1st PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.657[/TD] 2nd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.728[/TD] 3rd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.737[/TD] 4th+ PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.769[/TD] [/TABLE]
  8. Willihammer
    Career. He's not exactly treding in the right direction though 2012 [TABLE=width: 181] Split OPS 1st PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.62[/TD] 2nd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.863[/TD] 3rd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.971[/TD] 4th+ PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]1.064[/TD] [/TABLE]
  9. Willihammer
    I am not hopeful for Worley and this is why [TABLE=width: 193] Split OPS 1st PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.661[/TD] 2nd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.72[/TD] 3rd PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.843[/TD] 4th+ PA in G as SP[TD=align: right]0.964[/TD] [/TABLE]
  10. Willihammer
    I guess we'll hope we don't stumble out the gate again then
  11. Willihammer
    They aren't mutually exclusive
  12. Willihammer
    Infield pop fly, shoulders shrugged turning towards center field walking away
  13. Willihammer
    He seemed to get derailed a bit when they went to Cleveland, started playing balls in between hops. Too many errors like that but also there were some borderline brilliant plays mixed in, particularly to his backhand side. Even if his true talent with the glove is less than Florimon's, Florimon is no Brendan Ryan. I suspect we are talking a few runs difference one way or the other, over a full season. To me its a no brainer, go with the better bat.
  14. Willihammer
    It wouldn't hurt to sign him to a minor league deal but I see very limited upside there. I also think people are forgetting how good Dozier was in the field last year. His glove wasn't the problem, it was his bat. Still, he's the only guy, including Brignac, with any real promise of posting something within earshot of a respectable triple slash line. Even for a 9 hitter.
  15. Willihammer
    "Where'd that bone chip come from?"
  16. Willihammer
    Pelfrey is supposed to be on schedule. I think we are looking at Worley, Pelfrey, Correia, Hendriks, DeVries
  17. Willihammer
    The Indians were a mess and they're still a mess in my opinion. Bauer will help their pitching but Myers isn't very good, neither is Dice-K. Kazmir's velocity is still in the tank, last I heard. I guess maybe one or two of these has beens could discover new success in relief. But unless they bring an entire class of young pitchers north, they will be at the bottom of the league again in pitching. They picked up some RHBs to balance the lineup but if they play Reynolds and Stubbs everyday you can pencil them in for 400 strikeouts right now. Not to mention the defensive hazard that is Mark REynolds will cancel out any benefit from Stubbs. Swisher for Choo is about a wash. Who's in left? Infield looks supremely lousy aside from Kipnis and Santana, unless I'm forgetting someone.
  18. Willihammer
    Liriano needs a new agent
  19. Willihammer
    I have some hope that this team might do something like the 2004 Red Sox. Score a whole bunch of runs basically. They could do it if they get career years out of the heart of their order while catching fire with Plouffe, Hicks/Mastro, and Dozier. Pitching will be about damage control and lucky breaks.
  20. Willihammer
    Yeah the shutouts are the other big thing I think. The other thing with the durability/IP discussion is that, there is a math you have to do with starters where you weigh their 4th time mowing down a lineup more heavily than the 3rd, and the 3rd more heavily than the 2nd, and so on. When a guy can come out for the 8th and 9th inning and pitch as effectively as a setup man, that really propels a starter's value in my mind. And certainly with 60 shutouts, Bert did plenty of that.
  21. Willihammer
    Durability is going to be a prerequisite to meeting the counting totals that HoF voters seem to like. 300 wins and at least 1 Cy Young, mainly. Bert didn't reach either of those but he got into he top 10 all time in strikeouts, and 10's a round enough number and has a nice ring to it. If I had to guess, I'd wager that that is mainly what put him into the Hall, in most voters' minds. As far as free agency goes, IP doesn't directly speak to a player's ability to help a team win aside from the fact that durability allows the team to conserve resources. Your 4.5 ERA innings eaters are both a cheap commodity and allow you do things like carry 3 catchers. That's well and good but winning games is about run differential.
  22. Willihammer
    Span also holds the bat with a small gap between his hands. One of a kind type swing.
  23. Willihammer
    The problem with Appel is he might improve the team before 2015
  24. Willihammer
    1. He is coming of TJ 2. Service time
  25. Willihammer
    Well, we're all jumping the gun. M's saying no agreement was reached.
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