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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Last year the O's lost a ST game to a Junior College
  2. Willihammer
    I just realized baseball-reference is posting spring training numbers, including a Opposing Pitcher Quality metric Eddie Rosario Minor League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com
  3. Willihammer
    I'd have to go with the HoF catcher even if he is turning 30
  4. Willihammer
    Chocolate Girl by Animal Collective on Spirit They're Gone Spirit, They're Vanished - Free Music Streaming, Online Music, Videos - Grooveshark
  5. Willihammer
    Reports that Revere has mashed a few taters at Bright House during BP. Pretty much a replica of CBP
  6. Willihammer
    Their pockets. I'm spouting my opinion about the FOs *real* plan, based on their recent moves and talking points. I think DSP hopes the games are competitive in August and September because that seems to have been their goal going into the offseason. To push back that mathematical elimination date a few weeks and avoid all the empty seats we saw last year and make more money from operations while fielding a team on the cheap. edit: So if they put up another 6-16 April, it would hardly be worth paying Morneau/Willingham anymore since the seats are going to be empty regardless come August and Sept.
  7. Willihammer
    The law of unintended consequences. My favorite law.
  8. Willihammer
    I think Bonnes said on the podcast, the Twins got Correia's and Pelfrey's contracts mixed up.
  9. Willihammer
    A similar thing. Joey Votto has only pulled one foul ball into the stands for his career.
  10. Willihammer
    Save the cash
  11. Willihammer
    I think the Twins primary goal entering this offseason was to field a team decent enough to avoid the late-season attendance collapse last year. That is why they wanted "MLB-ready" pitching for Willingham this winter. If the Twins are out of contention by the deadline, I think the Twins will loosen on their asking price for Willingham. I don't think it would take more than a mediocre prospect or two to get a deal done, similar to the Delmon and Liriano trades.
  12. Willihammer
    This idea that the no. 1 hitter has to be a basestealing tablesetter, no. 2 hitter has to be a switch hitting bat handler who can bunt, no. 3 has to be a run producer, whatever - that all gets thrown out the window after the 1st inning, right? Heck, it gets thrown out the window in the first inning quite a bit. Consider, you have a 1 and 2 hitter who OBP at .340 each. Well, math says .66^2 = .436. Meaning, almost half the time the 3 hitter gets up, there are 2 outs and the bases are empty. What do you want your 3 hitter to do, throw his plate discipline out the window? Cash in a few dozen more strikeouts for 3 or 4 solo home runs? Joe is going to be 30. Why do people keep trying to square that circle. He's not a power guy, he's a hit and walk guy. Joe is what he is. He hits well in all situations. There's not a weak spot in his game.
  13. Willihammer
    Cool. Sounds like Mastro made a shoestring grab today. 6th inning or so.
  14. Willihammer
    Gladden: The Rays have a new outfielder Alex Meyer. Sorry, Will Myers. What an embarassment
  15. Willihammer
    I thought it went without saying that the judgments made here of MLB players who play for our favorite MLB team, is against other MLB players and other MLB teams? The fact is, Drew Butera is an awful hitter, among the worst MLB hitters of all time. And so far, Florimon appears to be not a lot better. I wonder what kind of reverence for these players you expect of posters. Would it be better to qualify that judgment with, "but even so, Butera and Florimon are a whole lot better at hitting than I would be?"
  16. Willihammer
    As a project right now, I'm going back through all team v team records dating back to 1996, to try and build on John's binary probability blog from a few months ago. The first goal being, to try and account for differences in divisional strength, as an indicator of playoff success or failure. I am a long way from finished. I can say at this point, the early returns are showing that non-divisional Pythagorean records within the same league, during the regular season, appears to have a more sizeable correlation with playoff series success than 0.07. As examples, the Twins faced 2 eventual world champions during the 00s - the 2002 Angels and the 2009 Yankees. Those teams had .686 and .610 non-divisional Pythagorean records in 2002 and 2009 respectively. By comparison, the Twins' non-divisional (same league) W-L% were just .478 and .402.
  17. Willihammer
    16 y/o VFW. LH P and OF. No hit, little bit of glove. One of the 3 worst players on the team.
  18. Willihammer
    This is my thought as well. I think its strange that Gardy is the one with his feet to the fire when for most of those teams, JR was the GM in charge of filling out his roster. Seems a little one-sided to me. That's my only quibble.
  19. Willihammer
    I've been thinking about this a lot lately. I will probably write about this soon. I think before we pass judgment on Gardy's handling of the 2002-2010 Twins playoffs teams, or laud Jr for putting together the cores that made those playoff appearances possible, it would help to understand just how good those teams really were. And then figure out if we really do want to try to get "back" to that, or not. John wrote earlier in the offseason how history says that playoffs are almost totally random. Success in any given series is similar to a binary probability (50/50). In other words, regular season success (or lack thereof) shouldn't translate into playoff success, and vice versa. Yet, the Twins made 6 playoff appearances in a 10 year span, and won 1 series in 7. That's like saying the Twins flipped a coin 7 times, and got heads once. There's worse than a 1/18 chance that you'll get just one heads in a 7-flip trial. They played 27 playoff games in the 00s. They were outscored 140-82. They won 6 games, Pythagoras says they should have won 7. So I suspect there's more to the Twins playoff failures. I suspect that, after you adjust for difficulty of schedule, you find a team that wasn't really a 50/50 coin flip to win a given playoff division.
  20. Willihammer
    Considering he's coming from Winnipeg I think they'll do ok.
  21. Willihammer
    At this point in ST hitters aren't swinging "so they can get their timing down first." Or is it, so they don't embarass themselves>?
  22. Willihammer
    Counter examples are only effective when the guy looks bad doing it though. A distant possibility, Vlad would be the best hitter on the team.
  23. Willihammer
    Vlad is an interesting name. Righthanded, pull hitter, still 38. He would be a horrible example to the younger guys of plate discipline though.
  24. Willihammer
    It sounds like, if Gardy is going to take the fall for this team, he's going to do it on his terms. I like it.
  25. Willihammer
    I like the Skyline deck for the money. Sections S-V
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