Willihammer

Worst was not that bad last year. Castro is an alright defender.

RZR is a pretty straightforward metric. At least it provides some context to what plays he was or wasn't making, which fielding percentage doesn't try to do. But, if you're going to site a stat like fielding percentage instead, put it in some context to the rest of the league. He was a whopping -.013 worse than average.

Yes, but we're talking about 1 extra ball hit into one of his "zones" per 9 innings, compared to the players who saw the least action. Scaling everything up to 1440 innings, and holding RZR constant at .796, Dozier would make 407 of 511 "in zone" plays, 30 less than the most efficient player Ian Desmond (according to RZR). I don't know what that equate to in terms of runs. Something like 8-12 maybe. I bring it up because its disingenuous to look at errors without at least weighing them against plays made. Dozier may have the high error total because the PTC staff induces a lot of ground balls his way. Or, he just may be getting to balls that players don't often get to. The eye test tells me its the former but again, we're talking pretty small scale differences in terms of efficiency at converting these balls into outs.

Any zone based data puts Dozier in the middle of the pack. RZR has him 18th of 29. UZR says he's worth -1.4 runs per 150 games. DRS likes him for +1 runs. RF/9 likes him. Baseball reference likes his defense for 1/2 a win. All on his profile pages on fangraphs or baseball-reference.

He also would have lead baseball in plays per inning if he'd stayed on his current pace.

Except he wasn't brutal defensively. On balance, he was neutral

Anyone else suspect that "demand driven pricing" is code for regulating ticket sales, such that ticket revenues are high but never get *too high* in the event that the on-field product is any good? As I understand it, the Twins are right on the bubble of the bottom 10-revenue teams - the only ones promised revenue sharing income under the new CBA.

Why didn't Pavano get a job this winter? My understanding was that with bone bruises, you just have to rest till they go away. They're not really a source of long-term damage like a torn ligament might be. Am I wrong?

I am curious. How do you get through a baseball game? 80% of the players are chewing and 100% of them are spitting.

I'm sure it wouldn't be a problem if people didn't retch the crap into a urinal when they were done.

Pavano was interviewed about it: Carl Pavano, Free Agent P, discusses rupturing his spleen by SiriusXM Sports on SoundCloud - Hear the world?s sounds

Bet on the Strohs while you're at it.

Yeah the bottleneck is at the register, for sure.

The '06 Cardinals had a Pythagorean record of 82-79 in the weakest division in baseball, finished first, and won the world series. The '03 Marlins had a Pythagorean record of 87-75. The 2000 Yankees were 85-76, all world series winners. You just have to be good enough to get to the postseason and the Twins have the luxury of playing in one of the weakest divisions in baseball.

As far as scoring games, yes, he made a lot of errors compared to Florimon or Carroll. He also made played more innings than the other two combined. Overall, his fielding percentage was .964 to FLorimon's .965 and Carroll's .989. I maintain that Dozier's mistakes were just higher profile.

I think that 10th inning game against the Rays left an undeservedly sour taste in everyone's mouth, mine included. But if you look at Dozier's performance as a whole, defensively, he really didn't do anything to lose the SS job (neither did Carroll). He was exceedlingly average by just about any metric you care to look at.

The 2013 team will bring back everyone from the 2012 bullpen. The bullpen was good for a ERA- or 100 last year. Perfectly average. They will bring back most of the batting order. The offense had a wRC+ of 97 last year. Obviously, the 2013 bullpen and offense isn't a lock to be as good (or as bad) as the 2012 squad. If nothing changed year to year then you would be right, there would be no point trying to compete with the Angels and Tigers of the world. Some guys will regress, others will get hot. But, I think there is a reasonably strong basis to expect something like a repeat from those squads as a whole (bullpen and offense), since aside from Span and Revere, they will be losing almost no one (barring injury). That leaves the starting pitching. Good for a 133 ERA- last year. Dead last. If you bring that up to even average, to match the rest of the team, then you at least open the possibility for a little Pythagorean luck to take you over the top. 3 teams outperformed their Pythagorean record by 6 games or more last year. 4 teams in 2011. Likewise, as many teams underperformed their pythagorean record. Then there are injuries and hot streaks, suspensions, whatever. All the other crazy things that happen over the course of a season that change the divisional races. And, what did this free agent class have an abundance of? Starting pitching. What did the Twins have a lot of to spend? Money. But they spent it on Kevin Correia, holder of a career 115 ERA-, and Mike Pelfrey, holder of a 109 ERA- when guys like McCarthy (ERA- 92), Baker (97), and Saunders (98) fell off the table for only a few dollars more than the Twins were willing to spend. Its maddening to me. Now, instead of needing only a few breaks to go their way - breaks that happen for teams every year, they will need to play a perfect season to have a prayer - and still might come up short.

I looked at Diamond's brooksbaseball profile for 2012 and was struck by 2 things. 1 is how infrequently hitters are swinging in 2-0 and 3-1 against him, and, how Diamond seemed to thrive in those counts. 8:1 and 7:1 GB/FB ratios on his fastball in those counts, and only 1 HR. edit: actually those are GB/FB ratios to righthanders only. LHH seemed to fair a bit better

Surly in 141 and Summit at Townhall tavern by the train station. You will never have to walk more than 1/4 way around to get a good beer.

I can't wait till someone poses Gardy a question about Correia in ST so we can thereafter start referring to the poor man as "Crazy."

Its not too late to give Pavano a call

Yeah. Talk about what separates the casual fan from the hardcore. Count me out for that. I think the honeymoon will be all but over after that though. They will finally have to start fielding a competitive product in order to sell tickets.

They did. I'm almost positive its an old figure though. Probably closer to 90% by now. edit: actually, I think they were talking about twinsfest attendance in the podcast. I will have to track down the source for that figure if I can. Maybe I am imagining it.

Say the Red Sox are interested again, and just as a pot sweetener, or to help them avoid payroll tax issues maybe, the Twins throw in 23m cash to buyout a year of Mauer's contract in a trade for some of the pitching prospects they took from the Dodgers. Instead of trading a 6/138 player they're trading a more "team friendly" 6/115 player while lifting their own 2013 payroll back to the 100m range.

Or they use the cash to buy more prospects, by partially or totally buying out the remaining years of either Willingham or Mauer's contracts.