Willihammer

I know its SSS-flawed, but, Liriano's turnaround midseason last year coincided perfectly with taking on Butera as personal catcher. It started on May 30 and went through his trade in late July. Only 1 lousy start in the mix. He also had his worst games when Doumit caught him: 2012: [TABLE=class: sortable stats_table] [TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc, align: left]Split[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]G[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]IP[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]ER[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, align: center]ERA[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]PA[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]AB[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]R[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]H[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]2B[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]3B[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]HR[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SB[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]CS[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]BB[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SO[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals sorttable_sorted sort_col, align: center]SO/BB ▾[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]BA[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]OBP[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]SLG[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]OPS[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]TB[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]GDP[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]HBP[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SH[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SF[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]IBB[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]ROE[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]BAbip[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]tOPS+[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, align: center]sOPS+[/TH] [TD=align: left]Tyler Flowers[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right] 14.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right] 5.52[/TD] [TD=align: right]64[/TD] [TD=align: right]55[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]15[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.00[/TD] [TD=align: right].255[/TD] [TD=align: right].323[/TD] [TD=align: right].382[/TD] [TD=align: right].704[/TD] [TD=align: right]21[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right].325[/TD] [TD=align: right]90[/TD] [TD=align: right]95[/TD] [TD=align: left]Drew Butera[/TD] [TD=align: right]13[/TD] [TD=align: right] 68.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]27[/TD] [TD=align: right] 3.54[/TD] [TD=align: right]283[/TD] [TD=align: right]244[/TD] [TD=align: right]27[/TD] [TD=align: right]45[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]32[/TD] [TD=align: right]82[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.56[/TD] [TD=align: right].184[/TD] [TD=align: right].284[/TD] [TD=align: right].303[/TD] [TD=align: right].587[/TD] [TD=align: right]74[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right].245[/TD] [TD=align: right]59[/TD] [TD=align: right]71[/TD] [TD=align: left]A.J. Pierzynski[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right] 42.0[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] [TD=align: right] 5.36[/TD] [TD=align: right]189[/TD] [TD=align: right]160[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] [TD=align: right]40[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]27[/TD] [TD=align: right]43[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.59[/TD] [TD=align: right].250[/TD] [TD=align: right].365[/TD] [TD=align: right].413[/TD] [TD=align: right].778[/TD] [TD=align: right]66[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right].306[/TD] [TD=align: right]110[/TD] [TD=align: right]116[/TD] [TD=align: left]Joe Mauer[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right] 23.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]23[/TD] [TD=align: right] 8.75[/TD] [TD=align: right]114[/TD] [TD=align: right]93[/TD] [TD=align: right]25[/TD] [TD=align: right]30[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.25[/TD] [TD=align: right].323[/TD] [TD=align: right].412[/TD] [TD=align: right].516[/TD] [TD=align: right].928[/TD] [TD=align: right]48[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right].356[/TD] [TD=align: right]150[/TD] [TD=align: right]132[/TD] [TD=align: left]Ryan Doumit[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right] 7.2[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [TD=align: right]10.57[/TD] [TD=align: right]43[/TD] [TD=align: right]35[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]7[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.00[/TD] [TD=align: right].400[/TD] [TD=align: right].500[/TD] [TD=align: right].686[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.186[/TD] [TD=align: right]24[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right].462[/TD] [TD=align: right]218[/TD] [TD=align: right]199[/TD] [/TABLE]

You're right, Doumit's bat is worth keeping around, but he shouldn't be catching, not with this pitching staff. As long as Doumit's considered the 2nd catcher though, then Butera's defensive skills gain even more value. Coincidentally, as long as Butera is considered a viable catching option, then Doumit's bat gains even more value over his replacement. If you never let Doumit catch another game, then Butera would not be on the roster. So to answer your question, I'd rather have Doumit, not Butera, with that caveat. Unfortunately, the Twins view both Doumit and Butera as viable catching options.

I'm saying it might be a better use of $4.2m to go with one guy who is not completely horrible at one part of his job. Doumit necessitates Butera, and vice versa.

I don't understand the skepticism over pitch framing. We are talking about a sample of 22,000 pitches over 5 years, in Doumit's case. So, as historically bad as Butera's been with the bat, Doumit's been just as bad with pitch framing. That's why I wasn't so high on the Doumit extension. it guaranteed a roster spot for Butera. Those two are joined at the hip.

As long as the alternative is Doumit, and as long as Doumit keeps dipping his head on borderline pitches and losing strike calls, he is a serious framing liability. Bobbing your head would seem like a simple thing to correct but either Doumit isn't aware he does it (because no one's pointed it out to him), or he's tried but just can't stop himself doing it. And Butera doesn't do it. This isn't a staff that can groove fastballs down the middle of the plate. They will need to get borderline calls. Especially Worley, who relies so heavily on called strike 3's. And, as run scoring goes down, the value of a stolen base goes up, and the risk of getting caught goes down. Ergo, teams ran more in 2012 and I would expect them to run even more next year. Incidentally, the Twins would do well to run a little more themselves. The Changing Caught-Stealing Calculus | FanGraphs Baseball

Saunders missed a month last summer due to a strain on his surgically repaired shoulder

Haha, great post.

The Brewers have squeezed something like 8-10 wins out of Gomez and Morgan the past two years. Speaking of which, Morgan is still available. In the event that Hicks isn't ready, what does Mastro-Morgan platoon do for you?

That HR split at TF is no joke, and neither are Saunders' platoon splits (286/341/463 vs. RHB) If you're going to blow 2-3 years on a guy of dubious health, why not spend the extra few bucks and get the righthander (Marcum) instead?

Seriously, how short are our memories here. Why shouldn't Correia end up like Marquis, and Harden end up like Zumaya? We have solidified exactly two rotation spots - Diamond and Worley. And at that, guys have awfully short track records of success. I'd be fine if Jr's strategy was a lot of small gambles on reclamation projects. But he hasn't really brought in the numbers to make that strategy viable. I'd also be fine with going all in with a small number of high priced, surefire talents, even if that leaves a rotation hole or two at the back end, but he hasn't really done that either. He's sort of split the difference again. I guess we just cross our fingers and hope for better luck this time.

That smells like entitlism to me. Guys making 5/10 can fail as easily as guys making min. wage. Paying them more won't make them perform better. We are talking about a guy who fell out of the Pirates rotation twice last year, and a guy who for all intents and purposes, hasn't thrown a pitch since 2011. Neither have pitched in the AL. Jr said we were done with scholarships. That was supposed to be the lesson of Blackburn.

I don't think so many of these guys have earned a spot in the plan yet. What has Hendriks, Correia, Pelfrey, Harden, Blackburn, Dozier, or Parmelee done to earn a roster spot in 2013, much less 2014 or 2015? You don't pencil guys into your plans based on what they did 2 years ago in the NL when they were healthy, what they did in AA, what they did in 2008-2009, or even what their paycheck is. You field the best team you can, certainly until you run out of cash, and you don't stop there if you don't have to, as long as there are better options available. If the Twins do sign Marcum, and Marcum tanks, and one of Rich Harden / Pelfrey / Gibson / Hendriks is able to replace him for pennies on the dollar, that is still a win. There is no downside.

I think you mean Glen Perkins, but that's ok. The fact that you might be confusing the two is almost more insulting.

I swear, counties and lawmakers across the country would be smart to bring in Boras to negotiate with owners when they come begging for public money. Just landed Soriano a 2/28m.

Teams can run deficits because their franchise equity is appreciating at an insane rate right now. Even the Twins have gained value at over 40% annually since 2002. • MLB Minnesota Twins franchise value 2002-2012 | Statistic

You won't find many cities willing to build a stadium without a pro team already present there. I know it is illegal to do it in LA, which is why the Vikings threat to move there was bogus, incidentally (LA couldn't legally appropriate money to build a park without a team, and the NFL wouldn't sell the team unless there was a park built - and Zigi wouldn't sell the team unless he was paid for its future worth in LA, not its current value in MSP). I suspect that ultimately the MLB, and the NFL, would come around to building their own (scaled down) parks, had the politicians not blinked. At least if you build your own park you can capitalize it, add it to the overall value of the franchise, instead of leasing it from the MBA. Considering the deal that the Twins settled with, whereby they don't own the property but still paid for a majority of it, I just don't buy the threat that MLB would have even contracted, let alone moved.

The truth behind MLB's threat to move or contract is unknowable, I think. The TC happens to be very comparable to TB and Miami in terms of market size. And if the Florida teams have proven anything, it is that A. a winning club in a new market is not guaranteed to be a payer into revenue sharing, and recently, B. a new stadium in a new market doesn't guarantee the team is a payer into the revenue sharing either. There are going to be new debts, fees, and taxes associated with a new park. So if fans aren't providing to cash to pay those things, then the proper move from ownership's perspective is to tank, as Loria did, and maximize revenue sharing income. It can easily be a swing of 40 million dollars or so, per year. The thing that ultimately drives profit is fan loyalty. That takes years to build, and the Twins had been at it for 40 years when MLB started threatening to contract. So I am dubious that it would be so quick to throw that away for the risk of an even smaller market like Memphis or LV.

I think he could be if he finds a way to cut down on his strikeouts.

At the risk of derailing this thread, its easy to have a respectable looking k/9 when you're facing 4 and a half batters per inning. His K%, on the other hand, plummeted from 32.5% in high A to 22.7% in AA. By comparison, Liam Hendriks struck out 21.7% of batters in the same league, at the same age, and he did it while walking a lot fewer, and still landed on his face in his first trip to the show, obviously. These guys aren't sure things, you don't pencil them into your plans until they bang the door down, or at least start knocking on it.

It is funny how perceptions of guys on the farm differ depending on what the FO is willing to spend on free agency. The Phillies do it, the Twins don't. So May is a RP talent in one organization, and a SP talent in the other.

As would I. Heck I'd be shocked if May starts a single MLB game ever. He was a RP prospect with the Phillies. Only when he came here did he become the next Cy Young in the wings.

So we put the whole operation on hold for two guys, who are certain to achieve their potential sometime in the next two years? Heck, even if they do knock down the door this year, right out of spring training say - why call them up? The Twins will only score 701 runs again, just like last year, because nothing ever changes! Nope, don't want to start that arb clock ticking until our all-stars Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are ready. The Twins will score dozens more runs when they get here certainly. In the meantime, a healthy Willingham, Morneau, and Mauer be damned!

Maybe the players are as frustrated with the BBWAA as the rest of us

To me, any system that relies on grades for the guys who grade the players, in order to account for their biases, strikes me as inefficient and probably not very accurate. But maybe I'm just not understanding Silver's idea. I would think that after the initial install, you can then get by with a fraction of the scouting staff on hand to go out and look at guys who have triggered themselves onto your radar. Let the players pay for their own travel into and out of ballparks with the cameras setup, let the blogosphere do the analysis. Heck you wouldn't even need to keep statisticians on staff, only need to pay the electricity bill.