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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Marcum's.gets weak contact that's consistent with his ability to miss bats entirely. Indeed he has a .270 BABIP, and 6.5 Fielding Dependent Wins which aren't included in his FIP derived WAR. Marcum is also a fly ball pitcher whose home has been Toronto and Milwaukee. Put him into a more neutral park and his HR/FB should drop accordingly and improve his ERA even further. That is, assuming his shoulder soreness is nothing to worry about.
  2. Willihammer
    Did someone tweet this?
  3. Willihammer
    I don't blame Ponder, he is what he is. The two things that stood out to me were a. the Tampa kicker forced us to start on our own 20 every possession, and b. lack of lucky breaks, ie. no 40 yard PI calls on offense or pick 6s or forced fumbles by the defense. The actual bedrock of the offense (Ponder) never was very good but the breaks were there. Now it feels like they're regressing to the mean a little bit. Next thing you know, Blair Walsh will run off a string of 5/9 field goals and someone on our team will be the one getting called for the 40 yard PIs (my money's on no. 24).
  4. Willihammer
    The idiom that "you can never have enough pitching" is getting tiresome. It signals a fundamental disconnect between the old school wisdom and the saber understanding which says that wins can come from anywhere. Great interview btw
  5. Willihammer
    I apologize for the confusion. I meant field in the sense that "Jr fielded 10 questions, and answered 7 of them."
  6. Willihammer
    That is not the assumption. The assumption is only the first part, that BIZ will normalize over a large enough sample, not that all defenders would make the same number of plays. 3 years of full time duty is an often sited figure for when defensive metrics start to become meaningful. So a .757 RZR after two months of play is no more an indication that his range is weak, than his high proportion of OOZ plays is an indication that his range is actually strong. That is all the point I'm making.
  7. Willihammer
    Over a large enough sample, that is the predicate. I admit, 300 innings is a small sample. But if you're going to dismiss those 300 then you can neither conclude that Florimon has limited range. The principle is sound though.
  8. Willihammer
    That is a bedrock assumption, and even in a small sample like this, BIZ correlates well with innings. I assume that balls out of zone correlates similarly. But no, I don't have that data. Edit: you can also look at the names at the top of that leaderboard, they are the usual suspects.
  9. Willihammer
    The way I read RZR, is the efficiency a defender converts into outs those balls he should convert into outs, as define by baseballinfosolutions' "zone." It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone. Likewise, we can also assume defenders will have the same opportunities to field balls outside their zone. So, given these assumptions, I calculated out of zone plays made per inning. These are your 2012 leaders at SS (min 300 innings). http://i.imgur.com/qNv3J.png I comped to Castro not because Castro's an elite defender (he's average), but he has good range as defined by this measure, yet is below average at fielding in-range balls. It is mostly semantics, outs are outs. I am only quibbling about the argument that Florimon has limited range, because based on what little data we have, I think the opposite is true.
  10. Willihammer
    I will laugh if these questions were included in the Jr interview. There is no pleasing some people.
  11. Willihammer
    I assume the Rangers will bring back Murphy to play CF. He is fine. What they seem to want is more starting pitching. They are a little backlogged at 1B and 3B with Beltre, Young, Moreland, and Olt. They will likely not make a qualifying offer to Napoli. I really think Napoli would be a perfect fit for the Twins.
  12. Willihammer
    Yes but the absolute value OOZ doesn't provide much context. I debated using Innings instead of BIZ but figured that would be less meaningfull to most people. Unfortunately there's no stat OOZ opportunities.
  13. Willihammer
    RZR stands for revised zone rating. It is the percentage of balls hit into a player's zone that are turned into outs. Dozier's was .796 (n 207), Florimon's was .757 (n 111), Carroll's was .810 (n 105) last year (at SS). Dozier, Florimon, and Carroll made 39, 29 and 18 plays out of their zone, respectively (at SS). For comparison, JJ Hardy made a mlb-high 109 OOZ plays last year compared to 409 balls hit into his zone. That was a career high for him. But Florimon's OOZ plays as a percentage of balls hit into his zone was virtually the same as Hardy's - .261 to .260, although Hardy has been much better at converting balls in zone into outs. Small sample sizes for Dozier and Flormon, maybe meaningless. If not meaningless, then Flormin would seem to be slightly rangier. Possibly a Starlin Castro type defender. If only he could hit like Castro.
  14. Willihammer
    Question, how many PTBNLs would it take to land Mike Trout?
  15. Willihammer
    I wonder if on balance, the miliseconds spent in order for base coaches to process events on the field, translate into sign language, relay to the baserunner and the baserunner to p rocess, is worth it. The only clear scenario where I see a coach being critical is in the odd sac fly situation, and sometimes for a lefthander who has a good pickoff move.
  16. Willihammer
    They are going to have to do better on third down. 35% for the year, 1/10 yesterday. Thank god we have Kluwe I guess.
  17. Willihammer
    What if Greinke doesn't like LA? Greinke has stated he enjoyed his time in Milwaukee; I know of no source where he has said the same about LA. If Greinke dislikes it there, then that would eliminate two of the largest buyers -Dodgers and Angels. Although he would not stop them getting into a bidding war over him, certainly. And if the 2ndary market dries up as Greinke waits, the Angels will be driven to make him an offer he can't refuse. But what if he does refuse? Texas: already has an ace, and can fill out their rotation with Ogando and/orDempster. Could also trade one of Andrus, Kinsler for pitching. Milwaukee: may get sick of waiting, and may be spoiled by the fact that Greinke refused their extension offer, but they do have money to spend. Yankees: Cap problems, and already has an ace. Red Sox: already has an (inconsistent) ace-type, but has cap space to pursue. Does Greinke like Boston? If Greinke dislikes LA, and Boston and Milwaukee aren't fits, or dont pursue, then there will be space for another team to enter the sweepstakes.
  18. Willihammer
  19. Willihammer
    I'd not only make that deal, I'd put him at SS
  20. Willihammer
    I am glad Musgrave isn't calling for ponder to throw downfield more often. He is too skiddish to stand in a collapsing pocket and wait for guys to get through their routes, and take one on the chin after letting it fly. I think if you start asking him to do that, you're going to see a lot more fumbles and interceptions from him. He's a scrambler and I don't think mid-season is a great time to try and break a guy of those instincts.
  21. Willihammer
    We are already getting outhomered at home, if anything, we should move the fences back
  22. Willihammer
    How does he plan to fill out the rotation before Baker and Gibson are ready to go? What is the backup plan, if one or both of them isnt' ready in time, or suffers a setback? edit: I'd also be curious to know whether he intends to be aggressive early this offseason, or take a wait and see what's left in January approach, to signing FAs
  23. Willihammer
    What kind of rise is he getting on the 4 seam heater?
  24. Willihammer
    I am unaware if there are more detailed defensive statistics available for guys in A ball. Can anyone elaborate on Sano's defense?
  25. Willihammer
    Bremer: And now for our Liberty Tax game break, we turn to statistician Dave Mills. Liberty Tax - we know numbers! Dave, what do you have for us today? Dave: Thanks Dick. In his first 3 spring training starts, we've watched Ervin Santana pitch for a very good 3.14 ERA, allowing just 1 home run in 19 innings pitched, following a year where he allowed a league high 39 home runs. Today we're going to look at why Santana's been more successful at keeping balls in the yard. Bert: Well that's easy, you keep the ball down... Dave: Well, turns out there's a little more to it. Santana's a fly ball pitcher, and last year saw his- Bert: ...by staying on top of the ball Dave: -Last year, one in every five fly balls left the park. That's a significant deviation from his career average of one in 10. And one thing sabermetricians have found is this rate will tend to average out over time. Bert: Well, we saw Ervin as an Angel last year pitch 7 very strong innings against the Twins, and it was plain to everyone at Target Field that he was pitching to a downward plane, and... Dave: Now Ervin's career HR/FB rate is less than 11 percent... Bert: ...staying on top of the ball Dave: So when you give up a lot of fly balls like Santana does, even a difference of 6 or 7 percent can make a huge difference. Bert: .. and keeping the ball down. Dave: Between a strong season.. Bert: Downward plane Dave: and one like we saw last year. Dick: Thanks, Dave. That's been your Liberty Tax game break.
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