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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    I'd be all for signing any CF help they can get but I suspect they would have at least given Richardson a shot by now before committing to that plan. So, I don't think FA is in the cards. Hicks will get the job again on a scholarship, is my guess.
  2. Willihammer
    Crediting Ryan for the overall state of the farm makes about as much sense as blaming him for the overall state of the TWins. It seems to me that Bill Smith was a significant factor in both. It seems like there's a little groupthink around here about Ryan's ability to rebuild a farm but if you take the top picks out of the equation I'm not sure he's done any better than Smith would have.
  3. Willihammer
    Video here (volume): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVUrIeSuCrM He strikes out over 20% of batters. The split looks to have developed into a legit out pitch for lefties, and the slider was always good. IMO he'd stick in an MLB rotation no problem and in the Twins, he'd instantly become the no. 1.
  4. Willihammer
    Savvy management can also find some talents in rounds 2-40 to ensure you have a steady stream of assets to work with. Ryan gets a lot of credit around here for restocking the farm system and possessing a great scouting acumen but I'm not sure its all well-deserved. Its a bit early to look at the 2012 draft but so far it looks like more of the same - clunkers in rounds 2-40, with a few possible exceptions. Certainly Bard looks like a bust. Correct me if I'm wrong but the general idea with that draft was to get low-risk, college pitching talents who would move through the system quickly. Instead a lot of guys seem to be stagnating, or downright struggling, in Elizabethton and CR.
  5. Willihammer
    That's a fair question and I agree that the leaderboard here, sorted by ISO without respect to age, isn't all that impressive. I guess I was a little fixated on the fact that Sano's ISO ranked first but that doesn't provide a lot of context. Here is a top-50 sorted first by age and then by descending ISO. It also brings Buxton into the picture: http://i.imgur.com/V9zZcsf.png Maybe that's a better way to look at it.
  6. Willihammer
    I'm not a Pohlad Pocket Protector but if I was concerned about getting the highest dollar value out of that contract, Mauer would have moved to 1B after the 2nd knee surgery. A slight overpay for sustained PT is miles better than an AROD type revolving DL situation.
  7. Willihammer
    CERA is available on ESPN's site: 2013 Regular Season MLB Baseball C Fielding Statistics - Major League Baseball - ESPN
  8. Willihammer
    You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2257-Putting-Sano-s-power-in-perspective
  9. Willihammer
    Since 2006, 851 players have logged at least 200 PAs in the Florida State League (High A). This is a sample of players that includes guys like Giancarlo Stanton (age 19), Jay Bruce (20), JP Arencibia (22), Allen Craig (22), and Domonic Brown (21). Another 746 have logged at least 200 PAs in the Eastern League (AA) since 2006. Players include Brandon Belt (22), Matt Wieters (22), Pedro Alvarez (22), Ike Davis (22), Kevin Kouzmanoff (24), Josh Reddick (22), Carlos Santana (23), Brennan Boesch (24), and Adam Lind (22). Miguel Sano has logged 200 PAs in both leagues. He's also put up the single highest ISO since fangraphs started tracking these statistics in 2006. In BOTH leagues. (ISO, or Isolated Power, is Slugging Percentage minus batting average. So it measures pure power - how good a player is at accumulating "extra" bases in the form of doubles, triples and home runs.) Here's a quick look at the top 50 performances, by ISO: http://i.imgur.com/n2om1ZW.png?1 Five players posted .250 or better ISO seasons at age 20 or younger in the Florida State League. Of these, only Giancarlo Stanton went on to post a better ISO in AA as a 20-year-old in the Southern League (although Javier Baez is holding a .352 ISO through 194 PAs, also in the Southern league). As stated above, the sample includes all players with a minimum of 200 PAs in either league. If a player hit a lot of gap triples and bloop doubles, ISO could be measuring speed more than power (ISO is Slg%-Avg, or total bases, not including 1st base, divided by ABs). In order to eliminate that possibility, we can just look at home run rate, expressed as AB/HR. http://i.imgur.com/pBT7I0K.png?1 Sano ranks 2nd and 4th in home run rates (tops for the EL) since 2006. If you have been following Sano's year, this shouldn't be a surprise - he has 31 bombs after all. And look at the ages at the top of that list. One of these things is not like the other. So there you have it. Sano's 2013 ranks among the top power seasons in both the Eastern League and the Florida State League dating back to 2006, in just about any way you care to measure power. And he's done it at a younger age than anyone except Giancarlo Stanton.
  10. Willihammer
    Or, you could just stick in the major leagues and find out. As another poster said, I hightly doubt the Twins aren't also guessing as to what moment exactly Sano is "ready." At some point we are all just going to have to see how he handles it even if he hasn't ironed out every flaw in his swing. What do you think is the worst that can happen? Sano strikes out a lot. So did Miggy Cabrera when he was 20. Guys need reps to get better, I think the level where they see those reps is a secondary point. If after a good look at what MLB pitchers have to offer he is not showing progress, you can always option him back down.
  11. Willihammer
    So, can we use stats or not? The ironic thing is that there are stats which measure a guy's component skills but OPS isn't one of them. For example OBP and BB% give you a sense of a guy's plate discipline, ISO or AB/HR for raw power, K% for his contact ability, etc. So no, speaking strictly in terms of OPS it would be impossible to declare Sano ready to outperform Wells, Delmon Young, Jesus Montero, Mike Moustakas or any of these other guys. However I think that's a very limited perspective even for those of us following Sano's development from 1000 miles away. Here is the thing, what is going to make or break Sano's career is power. In that respect, all these other comps fall short. None of them really touches Sano except Moustakas. Who would I use as comps? Guys who, like Sano, have surpassed .300 ISOs in High A and / or Double A at age 20 or younger. Namely, Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Justin Upton, Jay Bruce, Giancarlo Stanton and... that's about it.This is a very select tier of players and by my count, 3 of the 5 are doing just fine while the other two are still too young to give up on. And even if the two Royals do prove to be flops, it will be because they didn't have the talent to stick in the MLB, not because the Royals destroyed their skills by promoting them at a young age.
  12. Willihammer
    Mauer's bat can play anywhere, including 1B. The only spot it doesn't play is the DL.
  13. Willihammer
    There are plenty of organizational quotes praising Sano for making strides with the intangibles, esp. defensively. Will he ever be Adrian Beltre? I doubt it. And I don't think you keep him stashed away in AA or AAA for an extended period of time chasing that white rabbit when his bat is clearly ready for a promotion. Will he struggle with the first Justin Verlander curveball he sees? Almost certainly. Will he struggle with the 2nd one? Only one way to find out. Yes, prospects bust more than not. Even elite ones. But I'd argue they bust because they don't have the talent to stick in the MLB, not because their parent club destroyed their ability to play baseball by promoting them up at a young age. edit: Forgot chasing the white rabbit means something totally different. How does the phrase go? chasing Sasquatch maybe. I'll go with that.
  14. Willihammer
    Putting Sano's power in perspective - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
  15. Willihammer
    Since 2006, 851 players have logged at least 200 PAs in the Florida State League (High A). This is a sample of players that includes guys like Giancarlo Stanton (age 19), Jay Bruce (20), JP Arencibia (22), Allen Craig (22), and Domonic Brown (21). Another 746 have logged at least 200 PAs in the Eastern League (AA) since 2006. Players include Brandon Belt (22), Matt Wieters (22), Pedro Alvarez (22), Ike Davis (22), Kevin Kouzmanoff (24), Josh Reddick (22), Carlos Santana (23), Brennan Boesch (24), and Adam Lind (22). Miguel Sano has logged 200 PAs in both leagues. He's also put up the single highest ISO since fangraphs started tracking these statistics in 2006. In both leagues. Here's a quick look at the top 50 performances, by ISO: http://i.imgur.com/n2om1ZW.png?1 5 players posted .250 or better ISO seasons at age 20 or younger in the Florida State League. Of these, only Giancarlo Stanton went on to post a better ISO in AA as a 20 year old in the Southern League (although Javier Baez is holding a .352 ISO through 194 PAs, also in the Southern league). As stated above the sample includes all players with a minimum of 200 PAs in either league. If a player hit a lot of gap triples and bloop doubles, ISO could be measuring speed more than power (ISO is Slg%-Avg, or total bases, not including 1st base, divided by ABs). In order to eliminate that possibility, we can just look at home run rate, expressed as AB/HR. http://i.imgur.com/pBT7I0K.png?1 Sano ranks 2nd and 4th in home run rates (tops for the EL) since 2006. If you have been following Sano's year, this shouldn't be a surprise - he has 31 bombs after all. So there you have it. Sano's 2013 ranks among the top power seasons in both the Eastern League and the Florida State League dating back to 2006, in just about any way you care to measure power. And he's done it at a younger age than anyone except Giancarlo Stanton.
  16. Willihammer
    I miss Revere. Sue me.
  17. Willihammer
    Do the TWins even realize Clete Thomas is still on the roster?
  18. Willihammer
    Missing: 1 Chumbalone If found, call 763-555-1234 http://i.imgur.com/ewZ2Y6I.jpg
  19. Willihammer
    Hey, if the Twins get something cooking here they can always pinch hit Joe Mau- They can give a bat to Josh Willingha- Oswaldo Ar- Well maybe someone has a Rosary.
  20. Willihammer
    My hunch is Sano is fully aware of just how talented he is. I doubt a few strikeouts in the MLB will create much doubt in his mind about that. When I stand back and look at Sano, I see a guy who is the closest to a sure thing we've had in a long time. Maybe ever. The Twins will need his bat next year. Call him up, give him the winter to sleep on his experience, and plan on starting him at 3rd next spring. And if he takes Felix Hernandez yard then lock him up till he's about 32.
  21. Willihammer
    Coomer gets about as excited for the State Fair as Chief does for Yoga with the missus. Amirite?
  22. Willihammer
    http://gamehounds.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/old-hag.jpg
  23. Willihammer
    Fielder wearing sunglasses indoors. At night. I'm sure he suffers from dilated pupils though
  24. Willihammer
    Yeah, or just, stop throwing the ball here: http://i.imgur.com/ZXz8kQG.jpg
  25. Willihammer
    AShbury don't you know who's pitching tonight? Hint: shake shake shake shake shake shake shake shake
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