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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    If Dozier goes to arbitration then he is already signed to something like a 3/30 year contract. The caveat being that if he is injured then the Twins can opt out. So, one question is, what value is that option to the team? Another question is, how valuable are the rights to Dozier's 1st (perhaps 2nd) free agent years? All of that has to be priced in. Since we're talking about Dozier's 28-30 seasons and he has no real injury history, I think the value of the former is low, maybe 25% or so. How many FA years the Twins buy out and how much they pay for them is the much more interesting question IMO. It will shed some light on the Twins thinking about age related decline. I cannot believe that with Mauer's extension on the books that they're looking to buy out more than one.
  2. Willihammer
    Because if Dozier doesn't fall off a cliff in his age 28 season, then the Twins have to offer even more $$ to make a deal happen. It is almost besides the point by then, if its not already too late.
  3. Willihammer
    Here are some super 2 arb1 deals signed this winter. I know Dozier isn't Super 2 but he's close in service time (2.100). http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/arbitration-submissions&link=true&widget=true&YEAR=2014&submission_serviceTimeGEQ=2&submission_serviceTimeLEQ=3 Dozier sits at 9.6 r-WAR through similar service times. Among these players, the highest contract is Josh Donaldson at $4.3m for 16.6 WAR. Drew Smyly got 2.65 for 8 career WAR. Dee Gordon got 2.5 for 1.7 career WAR (2.4 in 2014). Assuming Dozier puts up another 3.5 WAR in 2015, here is how he would compare to the 2015 arb1 non-super2 Class. http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/arbitration-submissions&link=true&widget=true&YEAR=2014&submission_serviceTimeGEQ=3&submission_serviceTimeLEQ=3.999 At the top end is Steve Cishek with $6.65m for 5.4 career WAR. Mike Minor got $5.6 for 3.8 career WAR. Assume Dozier declined in 2016 to 2.5 WAR. His career total at that point would be 15.6. http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/arbitration-submissions&link=true&widget=true&YEAR=2014&submission_serviceTimeGEQ=4&submission_serviceTimeLEQ=4.999 2nd year arb guys got, at the high end, Greg Holland (8.25m, 9.6 WAR), Neil Walker at 8.0m for 15.0 WAR (that's a good comp). 3rd year arb guys David Price, 19.75m for 23.2 WAR. Porcello, $12.5m for 10.6 WAR, etc. I think we're looking about Arb1-2-3 commitments to Dozier at the high end of each year, due to the 9.6 WAR he's already accumulated. So, factoring in a little inflation, something like 6.0, 8.5, 15.0 (29.5 total.)
  4. Willihammer
    I suspect they'll leverage a raise in 2015 to bring down the price/years at the back. I'd wager something like 2.5-5-7-10-option
  5. Willihammer
    I think I'd rather stick Plouffe back at SS than the outfield. I can't imagine Plouffe would be any better than Colabello in the outfield. If both players excel (including 3B defense), then they have to look at a trade of Sano too. In this market, they could get a fair haul. That wasn't always the case but I believe it is now. Beats wasting Sano in AAA another year or waiting til he hurts himself, plays himself off of 3B, has a TJS setback, gets fat, etc.
  6. Willihammer
    32-Arcia 27-Vargas 15-Dozier 13-Plouffe 8-Hunter 7-Pinto 7-Santana 6-Mauer 6-Sano 5-Escobar 4-Suzuki 11-Hicks/Rosario/Milone/etc. 141 total.
  7. Willihammer
    First, nominate 10 posts. Then I will select the parameters.
  8. Willihammer
    I challenge any TD member to find 10 posts better than this.
  9. Willihammer
    Diamond and Albers were pretty good too when their control was pinpoint accurate. But command comes and goes, when a guy loses it he has to lean on the quality of his stuff to grind through lineups. Last year we saw what Milone's stuff was worth without the pinpoint command. It was not good. I hope the Twins realize that, outside of the $2.8m they agreed to pay him, they have only invested a waiver pickup in Milone.
  10. Willihammer
    I only wonder about selecting special "leadership" players to do the enforcing. Seems like that has the potential to lead to hostility after a while. If it were me I'd have someone with actual authority do the enforcing on players. Seems less likely to divide a clubhouse that way. JMO.
  11. Willihammer
    Arizona Diamondbacks - 71.5 - Over Atlanta Braves - 73.5 - Over Baltimore Orioles - 82.5 - Under Boston Red Sox - 86.5 - Under Chicago Cubs - 82.5 - Over Chicago White Sox - 81.5 - Under Cincinnati Reds - 77.5 - Over Cleveland Indians - 84.5 - Over Colorado Rockies - 71.5 - Over Detroit Tigers - 84.5 - Under Houston Astros - 75.5 - Over Kansas City Royals - 81.5 - Over Los Angeles Angels - 88.5 - Under Los Angeles Dodgers - 92.5 - Under Miami Marlins - 81.5 - Under Milwaukee Brewers - 78.5 - Over Minnesota Twins - 71.5 - Over New York Mets - 81.5 - Over New York Yankees - 81.5 - Over Oakland Athletics - 81.5 - Over Philadelphia Phillies - 68.5 - Over Pittsburgh Pirates - 84.5 - Under San Diego Padres - 84.5 - Under San Francisco Giants - 84.5 - Under Seattle Mariners - 86.5 - Under St. Louis Cardinals - 88.5 - Under Tampa Bay Rays - 78.5 - Under Texas Rangers - 78.5 - Over Toronto Blue Jays - 83.5 - Over Washington Nationals - 93.5 - Under Tie breaker 1: The two AL WC teams will be: Royals, Blue Jays Tie breaker 2: The two NL WC teams will be: Mets, Cubs
  12. Willihammer
    LOL. That was a funny exchange. I have not read enough Torii Hunter related discussions yet. I would like to read as many more as possible in the next few days. Spring training can't come too late!
  13. Willihammer
    So what you're saying is the Twins replacement players were better than replacement players? WAR's broken!
  14. Willihammer
    Q: Where would Aiken be ranked if he were right handed?
  15. Willihammer
    I guess I'm not that concerned with ISIS or ISIL. In my mind they're the terroristic equivalent of Miley Cyrus or whoever the current pop idol is. There always has been a terrorist of the day and tomorrow it will be a different one and I don't really care to track them as they come and go or see my country go too crazy about chasing any one in particular.
  16. Willihammer
    If anything I think maybe that exercise shows that a hitters propensity to miss or foul when swinging is an important consideration in weighing whether or not to bunt (regularly, not just in special late game situations) against a shift. For someone like V-Mart who has tremendous contact ability and excellent results on balls in play, the equation probably won't favor bunting nearly as much (if at all).
  17. Willihammer
    Eh... I goofed on my math initially. Someone should check my math. See link.
  18. Willihammer
    Right. By comparison, on swings, Gomez fouls 41.0% of the time (Brooks baseball) and whiffs 26.9% of the time. He has an OBP% of .210 on swing attempts and Slg% of .341 (.550 OPS). Assuming Gomez is an average bunter, then his whiff+Foul% is 49.6%. With a .452 BIP BA% on bunt attempts then his Bunt attempt OBP is .228 and Slg is .228 (assuming all bunt hits are singles), for an OPS of .456. So even with a guy who swings and misses a lot, and who gets on base a lot when he does get the bunt down, Gomez is still better off swinging. By 100 points of OPS. Edit: correction, gomez's OBP% on Swing attempts is .130 and Slg% on swings is .211, for a OPS of .341. Shoot, the bunt attempt wins, by a landslide? https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5pIzP28qdp-SnlBQTVCaXgyVUU/view?usp=sharing
  19. Willihammer
    This has been my understanding as well. I never heard about MLB expanding the zone on purpose. What umpires have done since they got access to pitchf/x data for self-evaluations, is call the rulebook zone more accurately and consistently.
  20. Willihammer
    But to actually break the shift the hitter has to succeed at a high rate. Really high for an elite hitter like Ortiz. Otherwise he's just giving away strikes and outs which just compounds the effectiveness of the shift in my mind. I was only trying to quantify that breakeven point in terms of OPS. If a hitter is OPS-ing .500 in order to break the shift, has he really succeeded? Seems to me a defense would just keep letting him bunt away at that point.
  21. Willihammer
    We're talking about two different things I think. I'm talking about the outcome of the plate entire appearance, not individual bunt attempts. I'm also assuming the goal is to get a hit and not simply to flash a bunt. If you read the fangraphs post linked to by Jimmer above, it shows examples of hitters attempting the bunt and not breaking the shift. Even a case where the hitter had succeeded in getting down a bunt (for a hit) earlier in the game.
  22. Willihammer
    On top of that, the breakeven point must scale with the skill of the batter. For a .750 batter like Kyle Seager, the breakeven point for successful bunts, defined as bunts that beat the shift and go for a single, is 38%. A 38% success rate equates to a .380/.380/.380 (.760) OPS. For a .950 batter like Ortiz, the breakeven point would be 48%. Again these are bunts that are both fair and go for hits (not just fair). So bunting doesn't seem like a viable tactic for any decent hitter, considering that even a good bunter is barely going to get the ball in play 50% of the time, and a portion of those will be outs. But if Aaron Hicks or Jordan Schafer gets shifted on, then its probably a different story.
  23. Willihammer
    Source?
  24. Willihammer
    This abstraction gets painfully clear when Mauer's not in the lineup. I'm thinking specifically about the 2nd half of 2013 when he was concussed. Man those were brutal lineups to watch.
  25. Willihammer
    According to your article, the 3-hole is for a team's 5th best hitter...
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