Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Willihammer

Provisional Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,383

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Can you refresh me. Does outright mean he has already cleared waivers, or he will not be exposed to them at all this time?
  2. Willihammer
    He is getting long in the tooth for a prospect but its not clear why he wasn't able to crack the 25 from my view. Coming off 12.1 k/9. 1.64 ERA. Hasn't allowed a HR in 2 years. Only Twins player to throw a 97 mph pitch, etc. edit: OK he did allow 2 home runs in his MLB tryout. Before that though, none since 2012.
  3. Willihammer
    Is there something extracurricular driving this move? I thought he was one of our better relief prospects.
  4. Willihammer
    I don't see how any government program can become more efficient if Congress is allowed to raise the debt limit every year. And I don't know how you get democratically elected lawmakers to self-impose a spending limit.
  5. Willihammer
    Is that a Sean invention?
  6. Willihammer
    Baseball-reference has a stat called sOPS+, which is OPS+ for a specific split. Arcia's -16 sOPS+ on the "after 3-0" split was only the 14th worst in the league last year ((min 10 PAs). Steve Talleson lead the league with a -46 sOPS+. After 3-0 he managed just 4 walks against 3 K's, and no hits in 10 PAs. Arcia still managed 13 walks against 1 K after reaching 21 3-0 counts (and no hits). Mauer's sOPS+ of 64 was good for 179th. Josh Harrison lead baseball with a 562 sOPS+ (4 hits, 2 HR, 13 walks, no Ks in 17 PAs) edit: Ed Escobar was 3rd with a 457 sOPS+. 1 double and 9 walks in 10 PAs.
  7. Willihammer
    LOL nicely done.
  8. Willihammer
    The Twins now have what, six pitchers age 25 or older slated for AAA (Oliveros, Tonkin, Hamburger, Achter, Pressly, Meyer) - seven if May is optioned? I mean, Terry Ryan likes the mantra "you can never have too much pitching." Yes you can! Do the Twins know what a velocity aging curve looks like? Do they understand that velocity is critical for strikeouts? Do they appreciate the strikeout YET? I mean come on. This really gets at the two worst perceptions about the Twins - that they are behind the curve with respect to strikeouts (which is reinforced by fact) and the perception that they prefer veteran mediocrity to more talented, younger players. What are we doing here. Are we just trying to complete the games. Eat the innings. Go through the motions. Or are we trying to win? Get Burdi up. Get whoever else throws strikes at 97+ up. Show Stauffer and Duensing the door. Flip a coin and send one of Pelfrey or Milone packing. There is too much pitching!
  9. Willihammer
    Ugh. Ro-dahhhhhhhhhhhn's going to be a stud isn't he.
  10. Willihammer
    Man, did anyone see Monday's game? Nunez was 0/3 in his first 3 opportunities at SS. 1st chance - 3 hopper up the middle, Nunez ranged to his left, ball bounced off top of his glove into CF 2nd chance - (2nd inning IIRC). slow grounder, sailed throw, batter reaches 3rd chance - eaten up by a hard short-hop. Hit. I know its an extremely SSS but he really seemed out of place in that game.
  11. Willihammer
    Finally got a chance to watch some of Monday's game. Pelfrey's throwing a changeup now? And it looks like a decent pitch.
  12. Willihammer
    Yep, see all you gotta do is follow the money. I'm pretty sure Denny Hecker is helping Mauer behind the scenes to sell Chevy's too.
  13. Willihammer
    Gibson's velo is impressive this spring. Will be interesting to watch if he can keep up 94-95 all season.
  14. Willihammer
    I heard he spends all his money on hookers and lobbyists
  15. Willihammer
    Too soon!
  16. Willihammer
    http://i.4cdn.org/wsg/1427235655084.gif
  17. Willihammer
    I mean, Morneau signed his 6/80 extension prior to the 2008 season. That was a huge extension in its day. By the time Arcia reaches that point in his service clock (2017, for argument's sake), accounting for 10% inflation, you're looking at a price tag of 156 million. Obviously Arcia probably won't win the MVP as Morneau did, but there is a cost to waiting for concrete answers to these questions. A huge one, potentially.
  18. Willihammer
    I'm not in love with OPS because it doesn't account for the changes in run and stadium environment that's occured in the last 10 years. There's also the fact that 250 PAs is not a reliably large sample to conclude much about a player's splits against same sided pitching. As I said, that won't become reliable until around the 600 PA mark. Having said that, I'll go ahead anyway wRC+ Morneau vs. LHP 2003 (age 22): -7 (27 PA) 2004 (age 23): 81 (229 PA Arcia vs LHP, ages 22-23 seasons 2013-2014: 69 (259 PAs) Looks like a wash to me.
  19. Willihammer
    Platoon splits won't stabilize for another 350 PAs or so, which again, waiting til that point reduce the unkowns and therefore the upside for the team. And maybe the Twins are happy to pay the cost of waiting, I don't know. On the other hand, if their talent evaluators feel they have a firm grasp on Arcia's true talent, his weaknesses and his strengths, then the sooner they extend him the better. edit: Unless that evaluation is: Arcia is playing over his head.
  20. Willihammer
    Pretty much every player is going to show a weak side in a platoon. Since there are more RH pitchers than LH pitchers, and since there is more RH power leaguewide and in the Twins system, its preferable the batter be LH and stronger against RHPs. That combination makes a player less likely to get pigeonholed as a part time player, not more likely, and doesn't preclude him getting an extension (eg. Justin Morneau). Arcia's floor as a LH hitting DH is no lower than a field-only up the middle player IMO. The Twins have found those types on the waiver wire or in small trades easily, eg. Florimon, Fuld. Risk is a necessary component for the team to have upside. The best extensions ever signed were extremely risky. Reducing the risk moves the price closer to FA amounts, eg. the Mauer extension.
  21. Willihammer
    Well, they could include a 2.5m salary in year one, or a signing bonus, or some other incentive. Super 2 status might change the shape of an extension but I doubt that makes or breaks a deal or alters the size/scope of it more than a little. As with any extension, it depends on the player and how he values financial security versus the upside of going year to year. If Arcia's agent is like Dozier's, he'll want to secure a deal while leaving open the possiblility of a big pay day entering free agency around age 30-31. Best of both worlds really.
  22. Willihammer
    In the 2nd half of 2014 Arcia batted .239/.290/.517. If he keeps that up through the first half of 2015, I think that should give the Twins reasonable confidence about Arcia's bat while leaving enough risk to provide the leverage needed to lock him into a low AAV plus team option(s) on Arcia's age 29 (and 30) seasons. I'd love to see the Twins lock him up if that's how the first half plays out. On a related note, Fangraphs looked at the notion of scarce righthanded power. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/debunking-the-myth-of-right-handed-power-scarcity/ TL;DR its a myth. In fact, LH power is scarcer. I think that's true for the Twins as well. Who is there besides Vargas that might offer anywhere near as much LH pop as Arcia promises?
  23. Willihammer
    concur. This thread is an all-timer IMO. Great reading.
  24. Willihammer
    Per MLBTR http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/mike-pelfrey-at-peace-with-his-pitching-mets.html
  25. Willihammer
    Awesome deal. The Twins lock up a good player through his prime at a good rate and Dozier gets a nice little bump this year and peace of mind for life.
×
×
  • Create New...