Nick Nelson

We wrap up the Position Analysis series with a look at the relief corps, which could best be described as "unstable." There's little question that the Twins will proceed with seven relievers and a short bench, as is their standard; to fill those seven spots, they brought a veritable army of flawed pitchers to compete in Ft. Myers. With a week left to go, it appears that the Twins have settled on which arms they will carry north. As is always the case in spring training, this is subject to change – particularly with the uncertain situations surrounding Scott Baker and Jason Marquis – but here's a look at the seven relievers I believe the Twins will break camp with. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Matt CappsDownload attachment: capps.JPG 2011 Stats: 65.2 IP, 4.25 ERA, 15/ 24 SV, 34/13 K/BB, 1.20 WHIP Capps spent most of last season battling a forearm strain. Pitching through the pain, he never complained, took the mound when he was asked and showed accountability when he failed to get the job done. He deserves credit for that. He also got hammered by hitters routinely, blew nine of 24 save chances and was booed off the mound at Target Field multiple times. Capps has been an effective hard-throwing relief pitcher with outstanding control for most of his career and he's still only 28. If he's fully healthy he should be perfectly adequate in the closer role. Last year's arm problems were never addressed surgically, so there exists a real possibility that the injury could come barking once again. Glen Perkins 2011 Stats: 61.2 IP, 2.48 ERA, 65/21 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP The only member of this bullpen who looks like a remotely sure thing is Perkins, coming off a breakthrough season. In his transition to a setup role, Perk was flat-out unhittable over the first four months of 2011 but saw his performance deteriorate in August and September. Most likely, this was due to his high usage; he appeared in 65 games last year when his previous professional high was 39. Assuming the southpaw's arm is in good shape, he's a solid bet to proceed as one of the league's better late-inning relievers. His fastball gained significant velocity with the switch to the bullpen, setting up a slider that is one of the league's deadliest weapons. Brian Duensing 2011 Stats: 161.2 IP, 5.23 ERA, 115/52 K/BB, 1.52 WHIP Last spring, I bemoaned Ron Gardenhire's decision to hand Duensing a spot in the rotation, reasoning that his success as a starter in 2010 was unsustainable and that facing righty-stacked starting lineups would eventually do him in. Sure enough, the lefty had a tough year in the rotation, finishing with a 5.23 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Through the struggles, Duensing continued to mow down left-handed hitters, holding them to a .217/.242/.280 hitting line with one home run in 187 PA. Considering his major weakness against righties, it makes a world of sense to move him back into a role where he can be situationally matched up against same-sided batters. Played to his strengths, Duensing figures to have plenty of success. Anthony Swarzak 2011 Stats: 102 IP, 4.32 ERA, 55/26 K/BB, 1.34 WHIP Swarzak has been a useful swing man in the past, but there are plenty of reasons to be leery of his outlook. During his time in the big leagues last year, he struck out 12.5 percent of the batters he faced; only five qualifying pitchers in the majors had a worse rate. His 19-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 38 1/3 as a reliever inspired little confidence. Hopefully a full-time switch to the bullpen will help play up his stuff, because it's hard to see his low 90s fastball and mediocre secondary offerings serving much value in anything other than a mop-up role. Jared Burton 2011 Stats: 4.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3/3 K/BB, 1.93 WHIP Burton is probably the most intriguing guy in the bullpen mix. He's pitched a total of eight innings in the majors over the past two seasons, but prior to that he'd been a quality late-inning reliever for the Reds, and he's 30 years old. Injury issues derailed the right-hander in recent years, but he's been healthy in camp and his results on the mound have been excellent. He's the club's best hope for a reliable right-handed setup man to complement Perkins. Matt Maloney 2011 Stats: 18.2 IP, 9.16 ERA, 13/4 K/BB, 2.14 WHIP The Twins claimed Maloney during the offseason because they saw something in him despite an unremarkable 2011 season spent mostly starting in the Reds' system. Their belief in his potential as a reliever appears justified based on a 16-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14 1/3 spring innings, but that's overshadowed by a lengthy record of mediocrity. Fortunately, as a third lefty option out of the bullpen and long reliever, he shouldn't need to see too many high-leverage spots. Jeff Gray 2011 Stats: 48.1 IP, 4.28 ERA, 23/21K/BB, 1.51 WHIP The buzz for Maloney is understandable, to some degree, but I'm baffled by the Twins' fascination with Gray. Apparently in line to make the roster by virtue of being out of options, he's a 30-year-old right-hander with a 50-to-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 88 2/3 big-league innings, a 6.6 K/9 rate in the minors and two strikeouts against four walks in 8 1/3 spring innings. Gray is a hard thrower, with a fastball that registers in the mid-90s, but the velocity hasn't translated into remotely dominant numbers, and he's been around for a while. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: liriano.jpg When the news came down this weekend that the Twins had traded Francisco Liriano to the White Sox for a pair of middling 23-year-old prospects, the reaction around here was understandably negative. The same questions echoed in the minds of fans across the state. Why did the Twins deal Liriano in the wake of his worst start of the season? Why did they back away from their stated goal of adding young, high-upside talent? And why – WHY – did they send a potential difference-maker to the one team that almost no Twins fan wants to see hoisting a trophy in October? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The answers to these questions aren't especially difficult to figure. Terry Ryan settled on dealing Liriano to the Sox because they had the best offer on the table and he didn't expect better ones to come by Tuesday. Of course he would have preferred to pry away younger prospects with higher ceilings, but even with the increased number of buyers brought on by the new postseason format, clearly teams weren't knocking at the door to hand over those kinds of players. And while that's disappointing, it shouldn't be all that surprising. It's not because of Liriano's clunker last Tuesday (which happened to come against the team that traded for him). General managers aren't stupid enough to view one outing in a vacuum when it comes to evaluating a pitcher. Bad starts happen. The problem is that, with Frankie, they've happened too often over the past five years. Since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2008, Liriano owns a 4.69 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Utterly mediocre numbers that have been very much in line with the ones he's posted this year. For all his flurries of brilliance, the league is also vividly aware of the fragility – physical, mental or both – that has made him so insanely inconsistent and unreliable. Rental players, in general, don't garner huge returns because no one wants to mortgage the future for two months of production from an impending free agent – particularly when it's a pitcher who is going to make, at most, a dozen starts. Occasionally a savvy GM can take advantage of one club's desperation, but in this case it became clear that nobody fully trusted Liriano. (Admit it, that includes you.) Based on the left-hander's recent run of success, fans were overrating their own asset and setting expectations too high, putting Ryan in an unfortunate position. There was literally no way he was going to be able to acquit himself in this situation; holding on to Liriano made no real sense and the impact offers weren't there. And sadly, I suspect he'll have a hard time making up for it in these final hours before Tuesday afternoon's deadline, because while trade chips like Denard Span and Josh Willingham are more appealing with multi-year contracts, they still don't have the kind of value that many fans want to believe. Jim Crikket had it right when he wrote two weeks ago that we should be prepared for disappointment during the days leading up to the deadline. In a season like this one, I guess we shouldn't have expected anything else. Click here to view the article

Likely Starter: Jamey Carroll 2011 Stats: .290/.359/.347, 0 HR, 17 RBI, 52 R, 10/10 SB Download attachment: jameycarroll.jpg Potential Backups: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon Welcome Jamey Carroll, the latest passenger on Minnesota's never-ending shortstop carousel. Since Cristian Guzman's departure, the Twins have opened with six different players at the position in seven seasons. Their Opening Day shortstops have ended up averaging 68 starts there, and only one – Jason Bartlett in 2007 – actually started over 100 games in a season. At this point, the Twins would settle for even short-term stability, and that's what they're seeking in Carroll, a 38-year-old journeyman signed to a two-year deal during the offseason. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]The words "stability" and "journeyman" might seem odd when coupled in the same sentence, especially when the player in question is almost 40. Indeed, Carroll – who didn't reach the majors until he was 28 – is now with his fifth organization and has profiled as a part-time utility man for most of his career. These facts leave plenty of room to question whether he can be the steady veteran rock that the Twins desperately need him to be. But if you look at his most recent history – and that seems fair – it isn't difficult to see why the Twins decided to go with him. Although he had made only 46 career starts at shortstop prior to joining Los Angeles in 2010, he exceeded that number in both of his seasons with the Dodgers and was often used as a regular there when Rafael Furcal wasn't available. Carroll's offensive numbers over those two seasons were respectable enough, as he made up for a complete lack of pop (.054 Isolated Power) by hitting .290 both years and getting on base at a .368 overall clip. It will be interesting to see whether he can maintain those numbers while batting second regularly in an AL lineup, but if he can he'll be a serviceable hitter. Defense is the bigger question mark. There are differing opinions on how he'll hold up at the toughest infield position full-time, but clearly he wasn't thought of as a shortstop prior to arriving in Los Angeles at age 36. Even in the minors, Carroll played nearly twice as many games at second than at short – that just doesn't happen with great middle infield defenders. It's possible that the veteran has turned a corner and improved his skills enough to earn the increased tread at shortstop over the past couple seasons, but that seems unlikely for a player in his late 30s. I'd guess that more than anything it was his level of experience, his reputation as a good clubhouse presence and his almost non-existent injury history that served as impetuses for Terry Ryan to take the plunge early in the offseason. Those aren't insignificant factors, but none of them make Carroll particularly likely to excel as a full-time major-league shortstop here in the twilight of his career. Of course, the Twins would settle for a guy who stays healthy and doesn't kick the ball around given the disaster that took place last year. What's alarming is that if Carroll doesn't last, we may be looking at a similarly painful situation this summer, because the depth at this position is brutal. Who else can play shortstop for the Twins? Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Trevor Plouffe got their chances last year and proved to be defensive liabilities. Ryan has stated that the Alexi Casilla experiment at short last year "didn't really work out." Who else is there? Brian Dozier, who hasn't played above Double-A and is considered by many to be destined for second? Pedro Florimon, the offseason waiver pickup with a .676 OPS in the minors and 26 errors in Double-A last year? The Twins are trying their luck with a 38-year-old career utility man as their starting shortstop, and all of his backup options appear to either belong at second base, in the minors, or both. The carousel moves on, as this organization's continued inability to properly address the most important position on the diamond keeps on coming around to haunt them. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Carroll: .260/.335/.305, 0 HR, 20 RBI Click here to view the article

Download attachment: optimism.jpg You'd figure a team that lost 99 games last year, and now finds itself on pace to lose 96 this year, would instill little confidence in its fan base. Yet, as we creep up on the season's halfway point, I find myself feeling rather optimistic about the Twins' future. No, I don't believe the club is going to miraculously climb back into the AL Central race this year. But I do think that, given some of the positive signs we've seen, the path back to contention is looking shorter than we once may have feared. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Coming into this season, the Twins were in a state of disarray. A disastrous 2011 had caught them like a sucker punch, sullying their reputation as an organization to be emulated and prompting a major front-office shakeup. Alarming question marks swirled around several of the roster's key players, many of whom were amid long-term deals that had the potential to become quite burdensome. Given the number of health concerns attached to position players, and the see-what-sticks approach taken with the pitching staff, no one really knew what to expect from the lineup, the relief corps or the rotation. Fortunately, two of those units have proven solid. The bullpen has been a very pleasant surprise for the Twins, with a WHIP ranking fifth in the majors. Glen Perkins and Jared Burton give them two legitimate back end relievers who are under control for multiple years, Brian Duensing continues to excel as a lefty specialist, and several guys have emerged in the minors as possible blocks with which to build around those three (not to mention all the college relievers drafted earlier this month who figure to be fast risers). All in all, the outlook for this unit is fairly bright. The offense, after a slow start, has also come into its own. The Twins lead the majors in hits this month, and several embattled players are alleviating concerns through their performance on the field. Denard Span, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau have all been relatively healthy and productive; along with Josh Willingham, Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe, this gives them a quality core that is entrenched beyond this season. Granted, the starting pitching is a mess, but that appears to be the only thing holding the Twins back at this point. Building a rotation isn't easy, of course, but the ability to focus on a specific area – as opposed to the across-the-board retooling required during this past offseason – makes returning to contention far less daunting. If the Twins can keep the lineup and bullpen together for the most part, they could find themselves back in the mix as soon as next year IF they get significant improvement from the starters. That's obviously a substantial "if," but between Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks, Kyle Gibson, Nick Blackburn and some freed up money (from departing starters like Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker) to hypothetically put toward a deep free agent pool, the Twins may have some decent options available. It's enough to make you think twice about the notion of trading away guys like Willingham, Morneau and Span (or Burton and Perkins), who could all contribute to a revival next year if they're still around. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: ubaldo-jimenez.jpg The Indians made a bold move at the trade deadline in 2011, trading away multiple top prospects to acquire Ubaldo Jimenez, a 27-year-old right-hander who was viewed at the time as one of the premier pitching talents in the National League. An imposing presence with a mid-90s fastball, Jimenez had steadily improved in the seasons leading up to 2010, when he went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA to finish third in the Cy Young voting. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Jimenez wasn't been the same guy over the first half of the 2011 season in Colorado, posting a 4.46 ERA with significantly diminished velocity, but Cleveland still jumped at the opportunity to add a potential ace in his physical prime. As it turned out, the righty's troubles only worsened after the trade. He put up a 5.10 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch while the Indians rapidly faded from contention, and then trudged through a tumultuous 2012 campaign in which he lost 17 games with a 5.40 ERA, adding a career-high 4.8 BB/9 and a career-low 7.3 K/9. In two years, Jimenez had gone from superstar to liability. He bounced back in a major way this season, and the timing could hardly have been better for him. In his final year under contract, Jimenez went 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA, pushing his K-rate all the way back up 9.6 while showing dramatically improved control. Although his velocity dropped for a third consecutive year, his secondary stuff was as good as ever, and in the second half Jimenez looked every bit the part of a No. 1 starter, posting a 1.82 ERA and 100/27 K/BB ratio while holding opponents to a .606 OPS. He notched double-digit strikeouts in four of his last eight starts. Why Does He Fit? His performance this season, especially toward the end, is awfully tantalizing. That's a guy that could legitimately be called an ace -- something the Twins have mostly lacked since Johan Santana's departure. He also doesn't turn 30 until January, so in theory you're not looking at any imminent decline. While he's had his ups and downs in terms of performance and there are questions about the condition of his arm based on draining gas, he's been able to take the mound every five days throughout his career up to this point. Jimenez has made 31-plus starts in each of his six seasons since becoming a full-time big-leaguer. Only six pitchers have made more starts since 2008. Why Doesn't He Fit? There are no two ways about it: Jimenez is a massive risk. Even though he was able to succeed with a 91 MPH fastball this year, his steadily declining velocity is clearly a red flag, and he's still only a year removed from being one of the worst pitchers in the league. Considering his age, his recent performance and the state of the market, Jimenez will surely require a sizable long-term deal. The Twins might have to go above and beyond what others are offering in order to lure him to a current non-contender. As enticing as his upside is, the downside may simply be too great to justify an unprecedented financial commitment. Beyond the money, signing Jimenez would also probably cost the Twins a high draft pick, as Cleveland seems likely to make a qualifying offer. What Will He Cost? The Offseason Handbook pegs his estimated contract at four years and $64 million, which coincidentally is the same guess we made on Tim Lincecum, who was profiled here on Tuesday. Lincecum ended up inking an extension with the Giants later that day at two years and $35 million. What does that tell us about Jimenez, who is similar to Lincecum in that his velocity has declined as he's approached 30? Compared to The Freak, Jimenez would seem to offer a lower ceiling and deeper floor, but he's also coming off a much better year. Sixty-four million still looks like a reasonable guess to me. Would you pay that for a 30-year-old who was an ace this season, but mostly a disaster in the two years preceding? Click here to view the article

As a handy one-stop shop for all Twins-related offseason rumors, we'll be running frequent "Rumor Mill Round-Up" columns here at Twins Daily, wherein we gather up all the recent rumblings involving the local club. With each rumor, we'll provide some analysis and a "Steam Rating," assigning a 1-5 score to the report based on the level of likelihood we'll actually see something materialize. With the annual Winter Meetings getting underway this week, here's a quick rundown of the players the Twins are being connected to: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: john-buck.jpg * John Buck has "climbed to the top" of Minnesota's wish list at catcher, according to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. With Jarrod Saltalamacchia and A.J. Pierzynski off the board, the Twins have apparently turned their attention to the veteran Buck as an option to ease the transition of young Josmil Pinto behind the plate. I viewed Buck as a likely target for Minnesota and listed him in my blueprint in the Offseason Handbook. I like that he'll be relatively cheap and can operate as a quality backup or a serviceable semi-regular starter in the event Pinto needs more time. Buck is far from a great hitter but he has averaged 119 games played and 16 homers over the past four seasons. The fact that Buck has worked extensively with Ricky Nolasco, a former teammate in Miami, probably enhances the probability of this match. I see the interest here being very real. Steam Rating: 5/5 * The Twins are one team that has expressed interest in Oakland's Brett Anderson, according to Susan Slusser, who does a fantastic job covering the Athletics for the San Francisco Chronicle. I wrote last week about the merits of pursuing Anderson, concluding that at the right price he'd be a great gamble for Terry Ryan. Whether A's GM Billy Beane is willing to deal the durability-challenged former top prospect for what we'd construe as the "right price" is unknown, but with his value depressed the Twins would be silly not to at least explore. Steam Rating: 3/5 * The Pirates are set to meet with Bronson Arroyo's agent, via ESPN's Buster Olney. The Twins were reported to be interested in Arroyo prior to the Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes signings, and there has been some buzz that their interest remains, although we haven't heard anything connecting the two sides in a while. I would guess that if the Twins are going to sign another starter, it will be more of a low-level signing, so Arroyo is probably not a realistic target unless his price really drops for some reason. Steam Rating: 2/5 UPDATE: ESPN 1500's Darren Wolfson says the Twins are meeting with Arroyo's agent on Monday afternoon, so there may be more to this possibility than we think. (h/t JimCrikket) * It sounds like former Twins starter Carl Pavano is interested in resuming his playing career but doesn't view the Twins as a likely destination, per Berardino. Pavano missed the entire 2013 season after rupturing his spleen in a freak shoveling incident. He told Berardino, "I'm going to give it a try. What else have I got?" Asked about the Twins specifically, he said he hasn't been in contact and added, "I think we're in different places. They need those younger guys in their rotation." Truth. Steam Rating: 1/5 Click here to view the article

With Vance Worley outrighted and Kyle Gibson seemingly in line to claim the fifth spot in the rotation, the Minnesota Twins' roster is beginning to come into focus. Based on recent developments, rumblings around camp and general deduction, here's a final stab at projecting the 25 men who will head north in a week when the Twins head to Chicago to open their 2014 season. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As always, names in red are the players who should be considered locks (barring injury) while the names in black are less certain. Download attachment: josmilpinto.jpg Catchers (3): Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto, Chris Herrmann I'm not sure this is how it's going to come together, but it is looking like Pinto will make the roster because the Twins need his bat. If Ron Gardenhire elects to plug Pinto in at DH frequently against lefties -- which I think is a good idea -- he'll probably want Hermmann on the roster. Herrmann also provides additional outfield depth, and has performed well this spring. Infielders (5): Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar I think Gardenhire would like to have Chris Colabello on the team, but it's going to be tough to fit him along with a third catcher. That might ultimately be one of the tougher choices the manager has to make. As for Jason Bartlett, it's clear that Gardy wants to keep him but I can't see any way to rationalize a no-hit utility man on the roster in addition to the backup infielder Escobar. Outfielders (5): Josh Willingham, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Jason Kubel, Alex Presley Chris Parmelee is the victim of a roster squeeze, and could be lost because he's out of options. It simply doesn't make sense to carry both Kubel and Parmelee, and all indications are that Kubel is in. Starting Pitchers (5): Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Kyle Gibson Samuel Deduno is headed to the bullpen, and the final spot in the rotation will go to either Gibson or Scott Diamond. Several signs are pointing to Gibson as the winner in that competition, although the club might not make an official decision until after both hurlers make their final spring appearances on Tuesday. Bullpen (7): Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Casey Fien, Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak, Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond It sounds like Deduno is basically a lock to head to the bullpen, and he'll take on a middle reliever role while Swarzak slides into the later innings. The Twins don't want to risk losing Diamond for nothing, so if he's not the starter they'll probably keep him as a long reliever unless they can swing a trade. Assistant general manager Rob Antony noted on Friday that he doesn't see Diamond as a situational reliever because he isn't especially good against lefties. Michael Tonkin and Caleb Thielbar are the unlucky victims of circumstance here. Both are good enough, and have pitched well enough this spring, to be viewed as bullpen fixtures, but the Twins don't lose risking them by sending them to Triple-A. It will be nice to have these kind of reinforcements available in Rochester. Click here to view the article

After adding Mike Pelfrey over the weekend, the Twins have now signed three free agent starters to join Kevin Correia in the rotation, adding around $25 million to the 2014 payroll in the process. At this point, one would figure that Terry Ryan is done investing in the rotation and is ready to turn his attention to the offense. And yet, the pitching rumors persist. Here's a quick glance at the latest offseason rumblings involving the local club: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] * I felt that the chances of the Twins signing Bronson Arroyo went from slim to nil after Pelfrey was locked in, but Mike Berardino cites a source with direct knowledge as saying that the team still has "strong interest" in the veteran right-hander. With four starting spots essentially claimed and with Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond and Vance Worley all remaining to compete for that final job, I am extremely skeptical that Ryan is serious about spending big on another multi-year contract. This could hamper the flexibility of a rotation that should be setting up to usher in some young homegrown talent over the next few years. I could see the Twins signing a guy like Arroyo if he was available at a price they viewed as a bargain. But Arroyo -- along with the rest of the remaining free agent crop -- isn't waiting around this long to sign for a discount, especially with a non-contender. Steam Rating: 2/5 Download attachment: johansantana.jpg * Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 reports the Twins are maintaining a dialogue with Johan Santana and that the former Cy Young winner is "very open to a return." Santana seems like a more sensible target than Arroyo. He won't require an expensive long-term deal (more like a minor-league pact with incentives) and I see no way he'd be a consideration to open the season in the rotation. Coming off his second major shoulder surgery since leaving Minnesota, Santana did not pitch at all in 2013 and -- last I heard -- hasn't even thrown off a mound yet. If he were to come aboard, it would likely be in the same capacity as Rich Harden last year. He'd spend the early part of the season rehabbing and building strength, and would hopefully be able to join up and make an impact at some point down the line. Even with the Twins' rotation becoming somewhat crowded, Santana would still stand a good chance of earning an opportunity here, and it's a place where he's comfortable. I could see it. Steam Rating: 3/5 * Prior to the Pelfrey signing, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick mentioned the Twins were monitoring free agent lefty Paul Maholm. Whether or not that interest remains is unclear, but Maholm is a logical target for the back end of the rotation. He'll be relatively inexpensive and has posted a solid 3.89 ERA while averaging 168 innings over the past three years. Most notably, Maholm is a left-hander, and the Twins currently have no southpaws slotted into the starting corps. Steam Rating: 2/5 * Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle named the Twins as one team with interest in catcher Kurt Suzuki. Suzuki is intriguing. He emerged as a fairly solid player early on in Oakland, but has really fallen off over the past few years, with a .237/.294/.357 hitting line since 2010. He's still only 30, he'll be cheap and he's got a good defensive reputation. Seems like a logical fit as a backup. I still think John Buck or another more well-traveled veteran is likelier, though. Steam Rating: 3/5 * On Tuesday, Jon Heyman tweeted that the Twins are among the teams looking at slugger Mark Reynolds. It's tough to make much sense of this one, because Reynolds is coming off an ugly season and really doesn't profile as a third baseman anymore, though that used to be his primary position. He's more of a 1B/DH type and the Twins already have an abundance of those with Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Jason Kubel and Chris Parmelee. More than anything, Reynolds seems redundant with Trevor Plouffe already on the team; the two share a decidedly similar skill set. Both are substandard corner infield defenders who strike out a lot, hit for low averages and mostly just offer pop from the right side. I'm still a believer in Plouffe, at least as a part-time asset, but if the Twins are actually making a push for Reynolds it's probably not a good sign for the third base incumbent. In combination with the Kubel signing, the Reynolds whispers indicate the Twins are looking for cheap power bats they can buy low. For all his flaws, Reynolds has cranked 202 homers in seven MLB seasons. Steam Rating: 2/5 Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Bartlett.jpg Per ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, the Minnesota Twins have signed Jason Bartlett to a minor-league contract, and the veteran shortstop will compete for a job in spring training next year. Bartlett, of course, first reached the majors as a member of the Twins organization in 2004. He was acquired from the Padres as a minor-leaguer in 2002 in exchange for outfielder Brian Buchanan. In parts of four seasons as a Twin, Bartlett hit .272/.341/.362 over 1,208 plate appearances. He was traded to Tampa Bay in 2007 as part of the Delmon Young deal, went on to have a career year in 2009, and later landed in San Diego, where he was eventually derailed by injury. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Bartlett hit .245/.308/.307 over 139 games in 2011, his first year with the Padres, in 2012 he was limited to 29 games by a knee injury, batting just .133. He didn't play at all in 2013 while focusing on healing. He's now 34 and basically hasn't played in two years, making him an extreme long shot, but there's nothing wrong with adding some depth to the shortstop position. Pedro Florimon, who started 127 games there this season while posting a miserable .611 OPS, had stood as the only contender. The hope is that Bartlett's time away from the game has strengthened his balky knee, enabling him to come back and show something in camp. At worst, he'll simply provide a touch of nostalgia for Twins fans who remember his tremendous contribitions in 2006 after replacing Juan Castro, when he helped push the club to an historic second-half comeback in the AL Central. What are your thoughts on the return of Jason Bartlett? Click here to view the article

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One couldn't be blamed for writing off Nick Blackburn as an afterthought in the Twins' 2012 starting pitching equation. After all, he's been pretty bad over the past two seasons. In fact, "pretty bad" might be an understatement – he's been one of baseball's most hittable pitchers, prone to stretches of mind-numbingly horrible performance. His once-premier walk rate has deteriorated into mediocrity, leaving him with little in the way of strengths to fall back on. So it's easy to forget the fact that, prior to 2010, Blackburn was a pretty dang valuable pitcher. After emerging as a legitimate prospect in 2007, he became a staple in the Twins' rotation, hurling around 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009. After that '09 campaign, the Twins signed Blackburn to a four-year extension worth $14 million. It was a totally unnecessary move that has unsurprisingly backfired, but there was valid reason for the club's faith in the right-hander. Over that two-year stretch, Blackburn was indisputably their most reliable starting pitcher. Yes, he has been mostly a mess over the past two seasons, and there's a temptation to profile those struggles as symptomatic of his non-dominant, pitch-to-contact approach. But that was the same style he employed while serving as a steady boon amidst the rotation in his first two seasons. Indeed, his troubles in 2010 and 2011 have very likely stemmed from health issues more than anything else. And while that's not reason to excuse them, it's a fact that should provide fans with hope that he can return to form if his latest surgery takes. In his first year at Target Field, Blackburn finished with a 5.42 ERA and career-low 3.8 K/9 rate over 161 innings. Ugly numbers, to be sure, but after the season it was revealed that he had (perhaps foolishly) been pitching through elbow discomfort for much of the year. Shortly after the Twins were ousted from the playoffs, he underwent minor surgery on the elbow. Early on in 2011, Blackburn appeared to have returned to form. Over the first three months of the season, he looked as good as ever, turning in a 3.64 ERA over 101 innings. He was on pace for another solid 200-inning campaign, but things quickly derailed around the halfway point; after the start of July, Blackburn made only 10 more starts, posting a 6.32 ERA over 47 innings while allowing 70 hits and 26 walks. The sagging control stood out as the most worrisome red flag for the righty, who even during his rough spells had traditionally thrown the ball over the plate. After issuing four walks while recording just four outs against the Yankees on August 21st, Blackburn was pulled and shut down for the season. He'd later be diagnosed with an entrapped nerve in his forearm, for which he underwent surgery in late September. This procedure was more serious than the one in 2010, as it left Blackburn in a splint for six weeks, but he's expected to be ready for spring training. He'll be one of several question marks among the club's starting pitching crop this year, but it's important to bear in mind that when he's been healthy, Blackburn has been a legitimate asset to the rotation. His $4.75 million salary – guaranteed as the result of that misguided extension inked two years ago – currently looks like a liability. But it's entirely possible that by the end of the season, it'll look like a solid bargain. Like with so many other Twins players this year, it will all come down to health. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: capps1.jpg In recent days, the Twins have announced a few procedural moves that weren't especially surprising. Among them were the decisions to decline 2013 options for Scott Baker and Matt Capps, which would have paid $9.25 million and $6 million, respectively. With both hurlers coming off seasons severely affected by injuries, there was no incentive for the Twins to pay such a high price when they could easily negotiate a better deal in free agency. They have already begun trying to do so with Baker, who told reporters that his side has been talking with the club and that "we're not close, but we're definitely closer than when it started." There's been no such steam surrounding Capps[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK], who unlike Baker actually pitched this year, although his health and effectiveness were issues for a second consecutive campaign. Even if they're not currently engaged with Capps and his agent, I wouldn't be surprised if at some point in the offseason the Twins opened a conversation to see what kind of deal could be struck. And, despite the justifiably negative connotations that surround the former closer here in Minnesota, that wouldn't necessarily be the worst idea in the world. Capps was overpaid in 2011, when he earned $7.15 million to post a 4.25 ERA over 65 2/3 innings, converting only 15 of 24 saves while misguidedly pitching through forearm pain. He took a pay cut this year, re-signing for $4.75 million, but again proved overpaid as shoulder problems limited him to less than 30 innings. After back-to-back disappointing seasons, Capps figures to land a reduced contract as a setup man during the offseason. And, on those terms, he's really not a terrible bet. It bears noting that when he was healthy this year, the right-hander pitched reasonably well, posting a 3.68 ERA while allowing only 28 hits and four walks in his 29 1/3 innings of work. This continued a career-long trend of limiting baserunners, as Capps has registered a 1.19 WHIP in his seven uneven seasons as a big-leaguer. Keeping mean off base has generally been a reliable skill for him, and is a good recipe for success even when you're not able to rack up many strikeouts. By no means is Capps a great pitcher, and after the last few seasons I'm sure most Twins fans would eagerly watch him walk off into the sunset never to return. Nevertheless, as a 29-year-old with his value as low as it's ever been, he could be a relative bargain if signed later in the offseason to a one-year deal, provided the Twins aren't tempted to pay him as – or use him as – a closer. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7805833.jpg From the beginning, there was never really any doubt that Eduardo Escobar was going to make the 25-man roster out of spring training. The intriguing young infield talent is out of options and the Twins, short on infield help, were not going to let him slip away. That hasn't stopped the 25-year-old from going out and playing like he's trying to win a job. And that he might. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] After delivering a key two-run single in the seventh inning of Sunday's exhibition match-up against Miami, Escobar is batting .333 this spring, with three extra-base hits in 24 at-bats. Meanwhile, the players he's competing with have lagged behind. Jason Bartlett is hitless in 23 at-bats and Doug Bernier is hitting .200 in limited playing time. Escobar has easily cemented himself as the top candidate for a backup infield gig, and he may be playing his way toward a potential starting assignment out of the gates. Pedro Florimon has been easing into action in minor-league games after missing a couple weeks due to an emergency appendectomy. He's viewed as the favorite to start at shortstop but his hold on that job is tenuous at best since he hasn't shown much with the bat in the past. Escobar hasn't proven to be a superior hitter in the majors, but he also hasn't had the chance to settle into a regular position. Last year, after being demoted from the Twins with a .214 average in July, he hit .307/.380/.500 in 43 games at Rochester, and then batted .324 after returning to the majors as a September call-up. So his momentum stretches back beyond the nice spring he's enjoying. Florimon is expected to return to the Twins' lineup Monday. If he looks sharp in the field and decent at the plate over these next couple weeks he'll probably be the club's starting shortstop in Chicago on March 31st. Ron Gardenhire seems committed to getting a long look at the athletic defensive whiz, and Escobar's defensive versatility makes him more attractive as a utility man. But the Twins need offense and they know it. If Escobar proves himself to be the superior threat at the plate as March fades into April, he could very well knock Florimon from his precarious perch atop the depth chart. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Pelfreyspring.jpg In a season where he's largely stayed in the good graces of the fan base, Ron Gardenhire finally awakened the critics on Monday night. With the Twins leading Detroit 3-1 and angling for a big win to kick off their treacherous road trip, Gardenhire sent Mike Pelfrey out to pitch the sixth inning despite the fact that the starter had pretty clearly been surviving on smoke and mirrors all night.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Pelfrey had not struck out a single hitter and, in the previous inning, had only managed to work around a single and triple by inducing a hard-hit ground ball double play. Pelfrey took the mound in the sixth and imploded against the middle of the Detroit lineup, allowing an infield single, a walk and then a go-ahead three-run homer to Prince Fielder. Finally the bullpen took over and did its thing, holding the Tigers scoreless the rest of the way, But the damage was done and the Twins sustained one of their toughest losses of the season. Pelfrey's meltdown seemed all too inevitable given the way he's pitched this year. He has failed to complete six innings in any of his five starts, he is allowing, on average, nearly two base runners per inning, opponents are hitting .356 against him, and he has a 7.66 ERA. Pelfrey has never been a huge strikeout guy, but he has managed to fan only seven of the 108 batters he has faced this season, giving him the lowest rate in the majors by a fairly wide margin. In light of those numbers, it strikes me that the issue isn't Gardenhire crossing his fingers and trying to squeeze another inning out of the right-hander. The issue is that Pelfrey is on the big-league roster to begin with. When the veteran returned to the mound back on April 4th, just 11 months removed from Tommy John surgery, I marveled at the accomplishment, even if he didn't look very good. It was a great story. It still is a great story; after rocketing through his recovery, Pelfrey has taken the mound every five days, battling and throwing strikes. He claims to feel fine and his velocity is back, close to where it was prior to surgery. Those are real positives. But those positives don't mask the fact that Pelfrey clearly does not have what it takes to consistently retire major-league hitters right now. He can't throw past anyone and opponents are putting the ball in the air at an unprecedented rate. Many of his outs are hard-hit liners. Parker pointed out last week the numerous issues present in the righty's game. Surely the Twins are aware of these issues, and they can't be thrilled with the lack of progress on Monday night even if Pelfrey did manage to dance through five innings before falling apart. I have faith that over time Pelf will improve the lacking aspects of his game as he moves further away from the surgery (which took place one year ago today). However, letting that process play out in the majors, where it's costing the team games, is not acceptable. With Liam Hendriks and Kyle Gibson waiting for a chance in Triple-A while Samuel Deduno inches closer to returning from a groin injury, the Twins have options available that make a lot more sense at the moment, whether the goal is to win now or cultivate for the future. A demotion to Triple-A until Pelfrey proves ready is a seemingly obvious baseball decision. The fact that he's a good story (and, by all accounts, a good guy) shouldn't cloud that. Click here to view the article

Last year, the rotation was an utter disaster, with Twins starters ranking 26th in the majors in ERA and WHIP. Short outings taxed an already ill-equipped bullpen and frequently put games out of reach before the offense had much of a say. It's not hard to see why these pitchers struggled so badly. Beyond injuries that hindered performance, the starting corps posted a lower strikeout rate than any other AL club; allowing that much contact in front of a substandard defense led to a league-worst 1,086 hits allowed. The front office didn't focus much on adding reinforcements during the offseason, signing only one new player who figures to be the fifth starter. Instead, they'll rely on improved health, effectiveness and accountability from the incumbents. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Carl Pavano 2011 Stats: 222 IP, 9-13, 4.30 ERA, 102/40 K/BB, 1.36 WHIP Download attachment: carlpavano.jpg While he's technically the team's No. 1 starter since he'll pitch on Opening Day, Pavano hardly fits the profile of a staff ace. At age 36, he is what he is; a veteran strike-thrower with a mature approach and an extremely hittable fastball. The best you can realistically hope for from Pavano is around 200 innings of serviceable performance. That's not without value, but it's also not what you want matching up against the top starters for contending clubs. Francisco Liriano 2011 Stats: 134.1 IP, 9-10, 5.09 ERA, 112/75 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP The mercurial left-hander has been alternately dazzling and maddening over the years and is a perennial spring wild card. If he's on his game he completely changes the complexion of the Twins' rotation, providing a legitimate front-end talent to change the pace for a group that generally survives on sleekness rather than stuff. Following an abysmal 2011 campaign, Liriano has shown plenty of positive signs this spring, coming to camp in shape and delivering a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first 18 innings while showing improved velocity and command. Of course, until the season gets underway, we won't really know which Frankie we're dealing with. Nick Blackburn 2011 Stats: 148.1 IP, 7-10, 4.49 ERA, 76/54 K/BB, 1.60 WHIP Last year marked the second consecutive season in which Blackburn pitched well enough early on but battled forearm issues, watched his performance deteriorate as the summer progressed and required arm surgery in the fall. His most recent procedure was more significant, and the hope is that it will finally enable him to return to the level of productivity that made him a solid mid-rotation innings-eater back in 2008 and 2009. Like Liriano, Blackburn is enjoying an excellent spring (1.50 ERA in three starts) and is actually missing more bats than we're accustomed to seeing. That all bodes well, but the right-hander needs to prove that he can keep his arm intact all year. Scott Baker 2011 Stats: 134.2 IP, 8-6, 3.14 ERA, 123/32 K/BB, 1.17 WHIP With the rest of the starters scuffling along, Baker enjoyed a career year in 2011, standing out from the contact-heavy staff by averaging 8.2 whiffs per nine. That mark would've ranked him among the league leaders if he had enough innings to qualify, which he of course did not as arm problems limited the righty to 24 frames after the All-Star break. It was the second straight season in which he's been slowed by elbow soreness, and the issue has already reemerged this spring, feeding the belief that he won't be ready for the start of the year. If Baker can't go, it seems likely that either Anthony Swarzak or Liam Hendriks would occupy his spot in the rotation. Those are decent enough fill-ins, capable of Kevin Slowey type production, but either would represent a sizable drop-off from Baker in his element. Jason Marquis 2011 Stats: 132 IP, 8-6, 4.43 ERA, 76/43 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP The lone newcomer in this year's starting pitching equation, Marquis has a track record that screams "mediocre at best." Historically, he hasn't racked up many strikeouts and hasn't limited hits or walks particularly well. He's also spent his entire career in the more pitcher-friendly National League. The nice thing about the 33-year-old hurler is that if he can hang in there and keep his sinker over the plate, he gives the Twins a fourth rotation member (along with Pavano, Liriano and Blackburn) who tends to induce ground balls at a steady clip. Hopefully, this will reduce the number of drives landing in the gaps and over the fence at Target Field. Unfortunately, with Marquis looking beyond shaky in his early spring performances and currently away from the team indefinitely to tend to a serious family matter, he can't be counted on for much at this point. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: buxton1.jpg As last year's No. 2 overall pick and the current consensus top prospect in baseball, Byron Buxton has drawn some lofty comparisons. You often hear his name mentioned alongside similarly well-rounded outfielders who dominated the minors and made a quick impact in the majors, such as Mike Trout and the Upton Brothers. One commonality between those three players? They all debuted in the big leagues as teenagers. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That won't happen for Buxton, who celebrates his 20th birthday in December. The center fielder is currently playing at Class-A Ft. Myers and there's been no whisper of a possibility that he could see Target Field before season's end. But the organization's most prized talent also may not be as far off as some would suspect. In his first taste of full-season pro competition after being drafted last June, Buxton outright dominated the Midwest League this year, batting .341 with a .990 OPS in 68 games to force a promotion to the next level. In Ft. Myers, he adjusted quickly and has been no less dominant in recent weeks. His numbers over his past 25 games, dating back to late July: .413/.522/.641, three homers, two doubles, five triples, a 20:20 K/BB ratio and 17 steals. Those are the kinds of numbers you put up in a video game when the difficulty setting is too low. Buxton is as out of place in this league as he was in the last. Yet, with the season winding down (only a handful of games remain on the minor-league schedules) it makes little sense to take any sort of action right now. Almost certainly, Buxton will remain with the Miracle for the ensuing postseason run, and will then be done for the season. Where might he start next year? And where might he finish? The Aggressive Route We don't know yet how Buxton will handle Double-A and Triple-A… but we can probably guess. His talent is so immense that it can almost be assumed the speedy outfielder will make quick work of anything the minor leagues have to offer. Like Trout and Justin Upton before him, Buxton can learn on the job, perhaps following the same path and putting up big numbers as a 20-year-old in the majors. But jumping straight from Single-A to The Show is basically unprecedented in recent years, at least for hitters. Even transcendent talents like Trout, the Uptons and Bryce Harper spent at least a chunk of time in Double-A and/or Triple-A before reaching the bigs (although they reached those levels more quickly than Buxton did). The Twins have done much this year to shed their reputation as being conservative with promotions to a fault, but it's still nigh impossible to envision Buxton going straight to the majors next spring. The most realistically aggressive approach I can see would have him starting in Double-A with a chance to force his way into the big-league fold as early as May or June. The Conservative Route Buxton is viewed as the future centerpiece of Minnesota's outfield, but the club has much to sort out around him. Aaron Hicks should return to the mix next year, along with Oswaldo Arcia. Presently, Josh Willingham remains in line for the left field job, and moving him to DH probably won't be an option as long as Ryan Doumit is around. Meanwhile, guys like Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe remain on the fringe of the discussion. I bristle at the notion that the Twins should hold back an elite MLB-ready talent so that Doumit or Plouffe can get playing time in right field, but the existing outfield logjam at the very least eliminates any sense of urgency regarding Buxton's arrival. It's pretty tough to argue for any truly conservative approach that doesn't involve Buxton struggling in Double-A. I suppose the patient route would be leaving him in New Britain for the entire first half, regardless of his production, and moving him up to Triple-A after the All-Star break if his performance dictates. Buxton would then be in position to appear as a September call-up next year and become a full-time major-leaguer at age 21 in 2015. The Likely Route I actually believe the Twins will embrace the opportunity to move quickly with Buxton. He'll start at Double-A next year but if his performance there is anything like it's been at Low-A and High-A this season, the Twins will find room for him in their outfield before the All-Star break. Under normal circumstances, we wouldn't be talking about young and inexperienced players like Buxton and Miguel Sano as candidates to play in the majors. But, much like with Sano -- and perhaps even more so -- we are talking about a generational talent in Buxton, and the normal rules just don't apply here. And in addition to the players themselves forcing the issue, there are the realities being faced by the Twins organization. This team is amidst a third straight year of irrelevance. They need to get some of these kids on the field so that fans can see the future instead of constantly hearing about it. Buxton is the kind of player who will create a legitimate buzz and bring people out to the ballpark. And I believe he'll be doing it in the first half of next season. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: kubelcrush..jpg Although he was signed to a non-guaranteed minor-league deal, the Twins appear to have big plans for Jason Kubel. "We brought him over here for a reason," said Ron Gardenhire recently. That reason is to add a powerful veteran bat to a lineup that ranked 11th in the AL in OPS and 12th in runs scored last year. Kubel has a lengthy track record of slugging success, with six straight seasons of above-average production leading up to 2013, and he has familiarity within the organization. But relying on Kubel to provide a much-needed offensive upgrade is very risky business. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] We all know that last season was a struggle for the 31-year-old. He was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks in August with a .610 OPS, and he then landed in Cleveland, where he limped down the stretch with three hits and 10 strikeouts in 23 plate appearances. Kubel spent much of the campaign dealing with a quad injury, to which he largely attributes his poor results. At full health, the hope is that he'll be able to rebound and regain the explosiveness in his bat that has long made him an asset. No one's hoping that happens more than me, because I was an enormous Kubel backer during this time here and -- as a Twins fan -- I obviously want to see the club score more runs. However, for multiple reasons, Kubel seems like a somewhat shaky bet to provide strong production as a regular at this stage in his career. KKKKKKKKKubel Strikeouts were a glaring issue for the Twins in 2013, when they ranked second in the majors in whiffs with a whopping 1,430. They broke their franchise record for strikeouts with more than a month left to play. Unfortunately, strikeouts happen to be the No. 1 warning flag for Kubel, whose ability to make contact has steadily deteriorated in recent years. Here's a glance at his strikeout rates since his best season in 2009: Year | K-rate 2009 | 18.3% 2010 | 19.9% 2011 | 21.4% 2012 | 26.4% 2013 | 31.7% Yikes. Last year's mark really jumps out. Among 316 MLB players to make 250 or more plate appearances, only seven fanned more frequently. Even though Kubel managed a robust .311 batting average on balls in play, he still hit just .216 overall. That's the nature of things when you head back to the dugout without putting the ball in play nearly a third of the time. So the Twins need to hope that Kubel can cut back on the K's and start at least putting the ball in play. With better health, he may be able to do so, but his career trend suggests that last year's contact issues might go beyond injury side-effects. Left Behind Kubel has always been a liability against left-handers. Local fans will recall this from his days in Minnesota, and it hasn't gotten any better. Last year, the D-Backs and Indians did their best to shield him, limiting him to 40 plate appearances (out of 291) against southpaws. When he did have to stand in against a same-sided pitcher, the results were brutal, as Kubel went 6-for-37 with one extra-base hit (a double), three walks and 16 strikeouts. Ron Gardenhire has never been known for employing strict platoons, but it should be plenty clear that Kubel can't be facing lefties. Since he isn't a very good runner or defender, this leaves him with a pretty limited value offering. He needs to mash right-handed pitching in order to merit any kind of regular playing time. On the bright side, that has been Kubel's greatest skill throughout his career. He's a lifetime .275/.340/.483 hitter with 118 homers against RHP, and when at his best he has ranked among the game's very elite righty mashers. But of course that wasn't the case last season, as he hit just .225/.304/.358 and struck out in 30 percent of his appearances. This is the key area where Kubel can and absolutely must improve by leaps and bounds. If not, it's going to be tough to justify a spot on the 25-man roster, much less a spot in the starting lineup. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: nishioka3.jpg Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who was optioned to the minors today to make room for Trevor Plouffe, has probably played his last game in a Twins uniform. His memory will endure, however – probably for longer than the team would like. In a sense, you can't help but feel bad for the guy. He worked hard and tried his best, but in the end he couldn't cut it, and his demotion in the wake of an audition so horrendous it needed to be cut short after three games serves as a reminder of the most misguided decision in a blunder-filled Bill Smith era. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The signing of Nishioka and the corresponding roster maneuvering – namely, trading J.J. Hardy for what amounted to nothing – were puzzling at the time and far worse in hindsight. It's not that the moves themselves have set the organization back irreversibly, as Nishioka's $3 million salary is hardly a massive burden and Hardy has come hurdling back to earth in year one of his new contract (though I'd argue he's still a decent value at $7 million). It's more that the thought process behind the decisions – the misplaced priorities, the awful player evaluation, the lack of long-term foresight – represented everything wrong with the front office under Smith. These weaknesses were also on display in moves like the Nick Blackburn extension, the Carl Pavano re-signing and the Matt Capps trade. Mixed in with a good hint of bad luck, this shaky leadership sent a thriving and annually competitive franchise to the very bottom. The Twins lost 99 games last year and they're on pace to lose 92 this year. If it pans out that way, it will be the worst two-year stretch for the club since the early '80s. The middle infield positions, which have been constant problem spots over the past decade, continue to be filled by stopgaps and marginal big-leaguers. And as long as that continues to be the case, people will remember Nishioka. Terry Ryan's job is to make them forget. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: diamond.jpg On Thursday night, Scott Diamond allowed four runs over six innings against the Phillies. It qualified as arguably his worst start since being called up back in early May, but it was hardly a disaster and would have kept the Twins in the game had the offense mustered any kind of production against Joe Blanton. Even after turning in just his second non-quality start in eight tries, Diamond remains the class of the Twins' rotation.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] His recipe for success up to this point has been quite simple, and it's one that he strayed from against Philadelphia: Keep the ball in the park. In the four starts where he has not allowed a home run, he is 4-0 with a 0.00 ERA. In the four starts where he has allowed a home run, he is 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA. Nine of the 12 earned runs tallied against the lefty have crossed on homers, including all four on Thursday. That trend won't last forever – he's holding opposing hitters to a clearly unsustainable .175 average with runners in scoring position – but his ability to limit the long ball has clearly been a big factor in his effectiveness. And fortunately, that trait has proven to be very sustainable over the course of his professional career. Before yielding two home runs against the Phillies on Thursday, Diamond had coughed up only four in 44 1/3 innings this season. Last year, even when he was getting knocked around in the majors as a rookie, he gave up just three bombs in 39 frames. In the minors, opponents went deep against him 31 times in 600 innings – a sparkling average of one home run per every 19 innings pitched. Grounders never travel over the fence, so for a pitcher that lacks strikeout stuff they are a powerful weapon. Diamond entered his latest start with an elite 61.1 percent GB rate. Only two qualifying MLB pitchers top that number. The 25-year-old hung a couple pitches on Thursday night and paid for it, but overall the outing should not be viewed as a discouraging one. The biggest keys to his success thus far have been throwing strikes and burning worms; even though he issued two walks and surrendered two bombs against the Phillies, he threw 65 of 100 pitches for strikes and induced 14 ground balls in six innings. If that's his idea of a bad night, I'll take it. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: worley.jpg During spring training, I observed a trend. It seemed that, all too frequently, a Twins starting pitcher would get knocked around in an outing and then remark after the game that he felt good about his performance. He executed his pitches and just didn't get results. I asked a beat reporter in Ft. Myers about this and he mentioned that he'd noticed the same pattern. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Of course, there's nothing groundbreaking or especially noteworthy about this. Pitchers are generally not concerned with their numbers in March and often work on strengthening their weakest offerings. Still, to see shellackings dismissed with the shrug of a shoulder struck a chord in me, in light of the rotation's performance in 2012 and my fears that the unit grew only more contact-heavy in the offseason. One particular incident stands out in my memory. The Twins were playing against the Rays in Port Charlotte in mid-March. Vance Worley was facing Luke Scott. With an 0-2 count he delivered a sinking fastball in on the hands. Scott turned on it and drilled it over the fence for a home run. After the game, Worley expressed little regret over the pitch, telling reporters, "It did what it was supposed to do", tipping his cap to Scott. I don't know if I've ever before heard a major-league hurler say that an 0-2 pitch "did what it was supposed to do" if the hitter made any type of contact with it. In that count, the pitcher is in complete control, able to fling anything that might fool his outflanked opponent. Worley's signature pitch did what it was supposed to do, and an unspectacular hitter deposited it in the stands? Not encouraging. Worley expressed the same type of sentiment after his meltdown against the Mets on Friday night. "They're hitting it where my guys aren't at," he told reporters. "I feel I'm not giving up real hard hits. It's just a matter of where they're hitting it." Here's the thing about these quotes: they're not wrong. Even when Worley is in his element, he relies on batted balls ending up in gloves. On certain nights the opposing lineup is going to string together hits and beat him, even when he's executing his plan. That doesn't make him a bad pitcher, but that is the attitude of a guy who throws his stuff around the zone and doesn't expect to miss many bats. Some have voiced frustration over what they see as a lack of accountability in Worley's remarks. I see an intelligent guy who knows what he is and realizes that he'll always be at the mercy of his fielders and plain old luck. Worley was a fitting Opening Day starter and tone-setter for this rotation. Each of the members behind him follows essentially the same blueprint, so it wouldn't be surprising to hear any of them respond similarly to a dud performance. It's not impossible to excel with this approach and when it's clicking the outings tend to be longer and more efficient. Nick Blackburn circa 2009 and Carlos Silva c.2007 are prime examples of this. They logged 200 innings and healthily outweighed their bad starts with solid ones. But these examples also attest to the downside of a pitcher who lives and dies by contact; should he lose the slightest bit of movement on his sinker, or should an injury alter his mechanics a tad, hitters begin feasting. Suddenly those pitches look like beach balls. It's a fine line and it is one the Twins are walking far too much in their starting corps this year. The rotation consists entirely of pure pitch-to-contact guys and as a result starters have totaled only 27 strikeouts through 13 games. Defensively, they've proven themselves ill-equipped to handle so many attempts, with bungled plays already piling up. But even with stellar glove support, a starting staff cannot expect to succeed while striking out only 9 percent of opposing hitters, as the Twins have up to this point. I think that number may slightly understate the strikeout proficiency of the current group but not by a whole lot. I just don't see how a rotation with this makeup can possibly expect to stay afloat. The good news is that the unit's makeup is likely to change as we move forward. There are some interesting arms on the horizon with a chance to break the contact-heavy trend. Kyle Gibson should be up from Triple-A before long and while not a strikeout machine he'll likely miss more bats than any current Twins starter. Newly acquired fireballer Alex Meyer is off to a strong start in Double-A. He has a chance to join the big-league club later this season, as does fellow New Britain Rock Cat Trevor May, who led the Eastern League in strikeouts last year. Add in veteran wild cards Rich Harden and Rafael Perez – who both have histories of dominance and should get a chance to start when they're fully healthy – and you've got a solid mix of potential options to enter the fold and add an element that is completely missing in the Twins' rotation right now: intimidation. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: doumit.jpg Cross one name off the trade deadline "selling" list. Ryan Doumit is here to stay – at least for the foreseeable future. Pleased with the impact of their offseason acquisition, the Twins announced Friday that they've signed the backup catcher and frequent DH to a two-year contract extension worth $7 million. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As the 2011 season came to a close, it had become clear that the catcher position was in drastic need of an upgrade. Joe Mauer, battling assorted health issues, had posted a disappointing .239/.328/.324 line while behind the plate; meanwhile, his backups hit an anemic .158/.209/.227. With Mauer's wellness still in question, the Twins needed to add a player who could fill in behind the plate. Among the list of available free agents, Ryan Doumit stood out as an ideal fit. A capable backstop with enough lumber to fill in at positions like right field and designated hitter, and with a modest price tag. Terry Ryan clearly liked those attributes and got him at a bargain: one year, $3 million. Doumit has lived up to expectations. There's a bit more risk involved with his new contract, of course, but we're talking about $3.5 million per year here. That's about what the Twins threw away on seven starts from Jason Marquis this year; about what they're paying Tsuyoshi Nishioka to play in Rochester. Unlike those two, Doumit has already proven his usefulness. His flexibility suits this club's needs well, now and going forward, and while he's not the kind of dominant bat you build your lineup around he adds some nice switch-hitting punch to the bottom half. Doumit is on the wrong side of 30 and not hugely athletic to begin with, so there exists a real possibility that his decline phase will hit before this contract is over. He's also been injured a lot during his career, and one healthy half hardly erases that history. Nevertheless, the Twins are taking a relatively minor risk here and the (very realistic) upside is that Doumit keeps doing what he's been doing – this year and most of his career – while staying fairly healthy in a role that is designed to keep him that way. Simply put, he has more value to this team than as a trade chip, especially at the price they've locked him up for. This is a great deal from any perspective. What do you think about Doumit's new deal? Join the discussion on our forum thread. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: axe.jpg After approaching 100 losses in back-to-back seasons, the Twins clearly needed to make some changes. As we put it when introducing our Offseason Handbook yesterday, complacency was not going to be an option this winter. They wasted little time shaking things up, parting with their entire coaching staff – save for pitching coach Rick Anderson and manager Ron Gardenhire – in the very first day after the season came to an end. Bullpen coach Rick Stelmaszek, third base coach Steve Liddle and first base coach Jerry White were all told that their expiring contracts will not be renewed.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Head trainer Rick McWane also is gone, which comes as no surprise given the iffy handling of injuries over the past couple years. Hitting coach Joe Vavra and bench coach Scott Ullger will be reassigned within the organization. For a team that has maintained remarkable field staff stability over the past decade, this is an enormous development. It's also warranted, because while I doubt that each departing coach was blatantly incompetent at his job, a change in clubhouse culture and a message that all this losing is not acceptable both were necessary. Some fans are already voicing frustration that Anderson and Gardenhire were left alone for the time being, given that the pitching staff was clearly the leading issue this year and ultimately the manager should assume responsibility for a team failure as miserable as we've seen. Yet, there have undeniably been challenging circumstances beyond the control of those two, and I think it's fair to say that they are on thin ice at this point. Gardenhire will almost certainly enter the next season as a "lame duck manager," with only one year left on his contract. The writing is on the wall that if things don't turn around, Gardy and his right-hand man are probably going to follow the rest of the coaching staff out the door. Personally, I'm OK with giving them both another chance, considering their strong track records prior to 2011. But it's refreshing to see the organization sending a strong message, and I'll be interested to see how the the vacant spots are filled (or the spots that open up in Rochester, assuming that Gene Glynn, Bobby Cuellar and Tom Brunansky are brought up as expected). Click here to view the article

Download attachment: dickey.jpg On Thursday afternoon, R.A. Dickey tossed 7 1/3 innings of shutout ball for the Mets in a win over the first-place Nationals. The victory moved the knuckleballer's record to 9-1 on the year and lowered his ERA to 2.44. Holding opponents to a .225 average and sporting a dazzling 78-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 81 innings, Dickey has to be considered a Cy Young front-runner in the National League, and he might start the All-Star Game. This is the best we've ever seen from the 37-year-old right-hander, but his effectiveness is nothing new. During his first two seasons with the Mets after joining up in 2010, he posted a 3.08 ERA over 383 innings. This after spending most of the first 14 years of his career struggling to stay in the majors. That included a stop in Minnesota – his last stop before turning into a steady rotation anchor for the Mets. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Dickey is one of the most fascinating stories in today's game, for various reasons. He's a born-again Christian and philanthropist. He doesn't have an ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his throwing elbow, yet still managed to be come a first-round draft pick in 1996. He recently climbed Mt. Kiliminjaro, along with his friend (and local media punching bag) Kevin Slowey. He also recently published a book in which he bravely details, among other things, his battle to overcome sexual abuse as a child. As a human interest story subject, you won't find many better. And the tale of Dickey's baseball career holds plenty of intrigue too. After failing to find much success as a conventional starter in his first decade as a pro, he became a full-time knuckleballer in 2006 with the Rangers. The process of completely overhauling his style as a pitcher, and learning to master a pitch that few in the sport's history have been able to effectively harness, was slow and fraught with turbulence. In his first start for Texas in '06, he gave up six home runs. The Rangers quickly bailed on the experiment, but clearly there were plenty of clubs that saw something in Dickey. He went through stints in the Milwaukee and Seattle organizations before latching on with the Twins in 2009. Pitching coach Rick Anderson spoke excitedly about the acquisition that year: These are all attributes that have helped Dickey become a force in the Mets rotation, and the Twins deserve credit for recognizing them at the time. They also may deserve criticism for failing to move him along. Was it a bad coaching approach that kept the righty from turning the corner in Minnesota? Was it the decision to use him almost exclusively as a reliever rather than have him start? Or should the Twins have simply been more patient and given him additional time to harness the knuckler and refine his command, instead of dropping him after one forgettable season? I'm not sure there are any lessons to be taken from this situation. Dickey is a unique case. And while it's unfortunate that he couldn't find this success with the Twins, he's still a fun guy to root for, and along with his co-ace Johan Santana he makes it easy for fans in Minnesota to get behind the underdog Mets in the NL East. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Torii-Hunter.jpg It was right around this time in 2007 that Torii Hunter officially left the Twins, signing a five-year, $90 million contract with the Angels. That total was more than most people thought he'd get in free agency, and it was widely believed that the Halos had overpaid, but Hunter made good on the deal, hitting .286/.352/.462 while averaging 21 homers over five seasons. Hunter just finished up the final year of that contract, and although he missed 22 games this season his production (.313/.365/.451, 16 HR, 92 RBI) suggests that he still has plenty in the tank at age 37.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Now he enters free agency for just the second time in his career, and he'll be one of the more interesting guys to follow, especially from a local perspective. Naturally, many Twins fans are curious to see whether a reunion between Hunter and Minnesota could happen. He was very popular here and when asked back in May whether he'd be open to returning to the organization that drafted and developed him, the veteran outfielder responded in the affirmative, saying "That's my home." Of course, adding outfielders presently ranks near the bottom of Terry Ryan's list of priorities for this offseason. But that could change. What if the Twins were to trade Josh Willingham instead of, or in addition to, Denard Span? Suddenly the team needs a corner outfielder who can bridge the gap to prospects like Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks; surely Hunter would have to be viewed as an attractive option given that he'll presumably require a short commitment and offers power that could offset the loss of Willingham. As Hunter ages into his late 30s, his speed continues to diminish and he's becoming less of an asset defensively, even in right field. Still, from a marketing standpoint, he'd be a familiar star who would appeal to a stagnating fan base, and his right-handed bat would undeniably be a good fit in the Twins' lefty-dominated lineup. Will it happen? Probably not. The Twins would need to move several things around to make room for Hunter and he won't be cheap. Nevertheless, it's a fun talker here in the slow early days of the offseason. Click here to view the article

Beyond this season, the Minnesota Twins still owe Ricky Nolasco a total of $37 million over three years. That's something that needs to be kept in mind as we ponder what the best course of action is for the struggling starter. Ron Gardenhire sounded like he was just about ready to be done with Nolasco during a cranky post-game interview on Sunday, and it's hard to blame him. Not exactly what you like to hear regarding a pitcher who was signed to be the stable leading force in the rotation, and paid accordingly, but Gardenhire's frustration is well warranted and the stats speak for themselves. Among qualified major-league pitchers, Nolasco's 5.90 ERA is the worst and nobody else is even close -- Justin Masterson is next at 5.16. Nolasco also ranks last in WHIP (1.62) and opponents' OPS (.902). I've been pretty bullish on the big righty, in part because I might be in denial -- I've liked him as a pitcher and was a fan of the signing -- and in part because there is some evidence that his horrendous results have been a little fluky. After all, he's not walking bunches of people, and his swing-and-miss percentage isn't far out of line with his career mark. Entering Sunday's game, he was averaging 6.4 K/9; over the past three seasons, he averaged 6.6. The difference now is that opponents are absolutely plastering Nolasco's pitches when they make contact and as the clunkers pile up it gets harder and harder to chalk that up to bad luck. On Sunday, he looked as ineffective as he's looked all year, failing to strike out a single batter while allowing eight of the 13 men he faced to reach base. It wasn't even a competitive outing, reminiscent of a Vance Worley performance in late March. Download attachment: nolascohomer.jpg Photo by Dan Hamilton, USA TODAY Sports Yes, American League lineups are better than those in the NL. But that doesn't come close to explaining the magnitude of Nolasco's struggles. What is going on, and how can it be fixed? No doubt the Twins' coaches and execs are racking their brains trying to find an answer. Options are somewhat limited when you're in Year One of a lucrative four-year contract. Gardenhire hinted at a possible demotion to the bullpen and Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press noted that the club could choose to push back Nolasco's next start back until after the All-Star break, saving him from having to pitch at Coors Field and giving him extra time to straighten things out. Those are as good ideas as any, I suppose. You can't really cut him or send him to the minors, and you can't very well keep sending him out there when he's going like this. But there's also this problem: the Twins lack viable replacements for Nolasco at the moment. Trevor May is out with an injury; Alex Meyer has been extremely inconsistent and also hasn't thrown more than 90 pitches in a game since early May. Neither is MLB-ready. I suppose the Twins could go with someone like Kris Johnson or Logan Darnell, but they've already got Yohan Pino plugged in and when you're looking at multiple Triple-A non-prospects filling the big-league rotation, you start to feel a nauseating sense of deja vu. Is this the last three years all over again? When is it going to change? The Twins went out and spent big on free agent pitching during the offseason, and yet they still can't seem to escape the same old outcome: eroded depth and a totally inadequate starting staff. Click here to view the article