Nick Nelson

Yeah, I was looking back at that one a little skeptically. Our rationale at the time was that he's the only real "closer" with a record of durability on the market and traditionally saves have been overvalued, but I think we're seeing that change right now to some extent, with the perceived value of closers and really good relievers (rightfully) started to merge. Something in the O'Day/Soria range is probably more realistic, though it wouldn't surprise me to see him get a four-year deal considering his age. I dunno, it's not like they were star-caliber pitchers but when you find guys on minor-league deals who give you seasons like Burton's 2012 or Fien's 2013 at a minimal cost, that's pretty damn good.

He was mentioned!

The game of baseball is undergoing a transformation. The role of the bullpen has been gradually gaining prominence for many years (to the chagrin of old-schoolers like Bert Blyleven), but right now we're really seeing these units become more specialized and emphasized. The way the Royals have ridden their dominating relievers to two American League pennants and a World Series win has not gone unnoticed by the 29 other teams. Image courtesy of Jeff Curry, USA Today The game of baseball is undergoing a transformation. The role of the bullpen has been gradually gaining prominence for many years (to the chagrin of old-schoolers like Bert Blyleven), but right now we're really seeing these units become more specialized and emphasized. The way the Royals have ridden their dominating relievers to two American League pennants and a World Series win has not gone unnoticed by the 29 other teams. A couple weeks ago I suggested that the best path for the Twins to become a true World Series contender in 2016 was to focus on building an elite bullpen, one that could negate other weaknesses to a degree. We have since seen some of MLB's heaviest hitters follow that same blueprint. The Dodgers reportedly have a trade in the works for Aroldis Chapman to complement Kenley Jensen. The Royals signed Joakim Soria to keep their pen infused with power and negate the loss of Greg Holland. The Red Sox traded a ransom to acquire Craig Kimbrel a month ago despite already having a pretty damn good closer in Koji Uehara, then picked up lights-out setup man Carson Smith from Seattle on Monday. With the game shifting at a fundamental level, the market is responding accordingly. In the past few days alone, we have seen Soria and Baltimore's Darren O'Day sign huge long-term deals at rates that would have been unthinkable for non-closers in the not-so-distant past. Ryan Madson, who had missed three straight seasons before putting together a good 2015 as a sixth/seventh inning guy for Kansas City, amazingly got a three-year, $22 million deal from the Athletics. Terry Ryan has been clear that bolstering the bullpen is his top priority at the Winter Meetings, but will he pay to play? The Twins haven't traditionally made a habit of aggressively attacking the free agent relief market in the past, typically opting for one-year contracts and low-risk fliers. To their credit, they have struck gold on a few occasions through this method with players like Jared Burton and Casey Fien, but that mentality isn't the avenue to a true top-tier relief corps. How much would it cost to add one of the remaining top free agents? Well, our contract projections from the Offseason Handbook have proven fairly accurate thus far, so here's a look at where we pegged some of the other big-name players: Name | Handbook Estimate | Actual Contract Darren O'Day, RH | 3 years, $27M | 4 years, $31M Joakim Soria, RH | 3 years, $27M | 3 years, $25M Mark Lowe, RH | 2 years, $10M | 2 years, $11M Oliver Perez, LH | 2 years, $7M | 2 years, $7M Tyler Clippard, RH | 4 years, $44M | ? Antonio Bastardo, LH | 3 years, $21M | ? Tony Sipp, LH | 3 years, $18M | ? Shawn Kelley, RH | 3 years, $15M | ? Matt Albers, RH | 2 years, $8M | ? Matt Thornton, LH | 1 year, $4M | ? Neal Cotts, LH | 1 year, $3M | ? My hope is that the Twins will make a serious play for someone like Kelley or Tony Sipp, both of whom they have been connected to. My fear is that they'll end up settling for someone like Matt Thornton or Neal Cotts, who are respectable veteran arms but nothing more than that. A big part of the reluctance to move on one of those higher-profile names might be the length of the required commitment; some of those three- and four-year terms are undoubtedly cringeworthy for Ryan given that he has numerous homegrown arms with big potential rising in the system. But the Twins have a lot of question marks across the roster and the bullpen is no exception. Glen Perkins is coming off a brutal finish, Kevin Jepsen has been a fairly ordinary reliever for the majority of his career, Trevor May might end up as a starter, and there are currently no established lefty arms to speak of. Will the Twins, who have undeniably turned a new leaf in their approach over the last few offseasons, take the kind of bold steps necessary to land one of the top remaining free agent relievers, or an impact player via trade? View full article

I don't think that's what I said, is it? My point was that I highly doubt they'll have anything close to a decided upon roster or lineup on March 6th. But it will be interesting to see what TR and Co. can accomplish between now and then to trim down some of the wide-reaching uncertainty.

Major League Baseball's annual Winter Meetings get underway this week in Nashville, and the Twins have sent a contingent that includes Paul Molitor, Terry Ryan, Rob Antony, Mike Radcliff, and basically every other recognizable name from the front office. I'd like to say that the club could use this opportunity to eliminate some question marks and solidify the state of the roster, but at this point the Twins seem inevitably destined to head into the 2016 season with a group that is, while filled with exciting potential, high on risk and low on certainty. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Major League Baseball's annual Winter Meetings get underway this week in Nashville, and the Twins have sent a contingent that includes Paul Molitor, Terry Ryan, Rob Antony, Mike Radcliff, and basically every other recognizable name from the front office. I'd like to say that the club could use this opportunity to eliminate some question marks and solidify the state of the roster, but at this point the Twins seem inevitably destined to head into the 2016 season with a group that is, while filled with exciting potential, high on risk and low on certainty. When your big early splash in the offseason is signing an international free agent with no MLB experience and committing to him as designated hitter, you're inherently putting yourself in a precarious position. Byung Ho Park's raw power is undeniable, but the same was true for Kennys Vargas, who entered the 2014 season as the hopeful long-term DH solution. But Park himself isn't the only source of ambiguity, of course. His arrival creates a tricky logjam for the Twins with Miguel Sano's natural position occupied by Trevor Plouffe, who Ryan continues to insist isn't going anywhere. That insistence doesn't mean a lot right now – the GM can't very well openly admit to shopping Plouffe, both because it would diminish leverage and would leave the incumbent third baseman in an unfair spot – but whether or not the Twins make a trade, they're going to face some dangerous risks. Moving the 260-pound Sano to the outfield, where he's never played before, has the potential to be a disaster, and that cannot be ignored. He might be fast for his size, but Sano does not have the speed to cover a ton of ground and that's without accounting for the lack of instincts and reactions built up from experience. The two biggest decision-makers in the organization don't even seem to have agreement upon which outfield corner Sano would be best suited for, as Phil Miller laid out in his article for the Star Tribune last week. "Right now, we are very comfortable … moving Sano to right," said Ryan. "I would say right now, left field is what I would be leaning toward," said Molitor. OK then. Either way, putting Sano at a position where he has to guide his large body around vast and unfamiliar territory while trying not to collide with walls and fellow fielders increases his risk for injury. It also decreases Minnesota's chances of boasting an exceptional outfield defense, which ought to be a focal concern considering the high-contact nature of the pitching staff, and the major role that particular strength played in the success of both the Royals and Mets this year. Trading Ploufe and moving Sano to third base is much less likely to have a significantly negative impact on the team's defense, but would leave the Twins dangerously thin on established right-handed bats to complement Sano at the heart of the order. Brian Dozier hit 28 home runs this year but his second-half tailspin casts some doubt on his outlook. Losing Plouffe on top of Torii Hunter and Aaron Hicks (who has an .808 career OPS from the right side) would leave a whole lot of pressure on Park to produce – perhaps more so than we should realistically expect. Judd Zulgad of 1500 ESPN wrote an interesting column recently suggesting that trading Plouffe would be a mistake and that Park ought to be considered a prospect until he proves otherwise. I think we're already past that point, for all intents and purposes, but it's tough to argue with the core thought process there. This situation is the most prominent and visible point of uncertainty on the current projected roster, but it's far from the only one. Is Eddie Rosario going to play center field or a corner spot? That will be dictated by another unknown: Byron Buxton's readiness to be a major-leaguer. Who will be the fourth outfielder, with Shane Robinson gone and no other internal options fitting the bill especially well? Can the Twins find room in that oufield for Oswaldo Arcia? Where does Danny Santana fit? Both are out of options. Who will be the go-to left-hander in the bullpen? Is Trevor May a starter or reliever? What the heck are they going to do about Ricky Nolasco? The number of moving parts and unanswered questions at play leaves the Twins in an unstable state entering the heart of the offseason. We'll see how creative Ryan can get in trying to reduce his redundancies and create some clarity, but for the most part, we'll have to come to terms with the reality that this team is going to have an awful lot of things to sort out in March. View full article

We learned on Wednesday night that the Twins had elected to tender contracts to all six of their arbitration eligible players. Several members of that group were a given, namely: Eduardo Escobar, Tommy Milone, Trevor Plouffe and Kevin Jepsen. Eduardo Nunez was a little iffy but he did fine in his limited role last year and he'll probably cost the least of the bunch. The most noteworthy decision, in my mind, was tendering Casey Fien. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today We learned on Wednesday night that the Twins had elected to tender contracts to all six of their arbitration eligible players. Several members of that group were a given, namely: Eduardo Escobar, Tommy Milone, Trevor Plouffe and Kevin Jepsen. Eduardo Nunez was a little iffy but he did fine in his limited role last year and he'll probably cost the least of the bunch. The most noteworthy decision, in my mind, was tendering Casey Fien. The bullpen has been a primary area of interest for me lately, one that I've written about a few times recently since I view that unit as one where the Twins can make very meaningful and impactful improvements during the offseason. Is bringing Fien back a step in the right direction? He turned 32 last month and his strikeout rate has declined in each of the past two seasons. This year, his 5.8 K/9 rate ranked 125th out of 137 qualified relievers. For a team that ought to have a clear focus on building a more powerful bullpen after finishing 2015 as the only team in the majors with a K/9 rate below 7.0 from its relief corps, bringing back a setup man who has struggled to miss bats like Fien is, on the surface, questionable at best. In fairness, however, there are a few other factors to be taken into account. For one thing, Fien's drop in strikeouts did not coincide with a dip in velocity, reducing concerns that his arm is running out of gas. Indeed, the heightened contact rates appeared to relate to his health, as the strikeouts mostly dried up in the middle of the summer, around the time he was dealing with a shoulder strain. By season's end, he had evidently put those those issues behind him, finishing with a 2.91 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 21 innings over his final 20 appearances. And even with the lack of whiffs, Fien had a good season overall. His 117 ERA+ was his best in a full season. His 1.09 WHIP was undeniably excellent, and exactly what you want from a pitcher getting high-leverage chances. His ability to keep runners off the basepaths was driven in part by his elite control; among qualified relievers, only Oakland's Evan Scribner had a walk rate lower than Fien's 1.1 BB/9. It was the third consecutive season in which Fien has ranked near the top of the league leaderboard in that category, and that is not something to be overlooked. Ultimately, when you account for the righty's proclivity for pounding the strike zone, along with his enduring mid-90s velocity, his strong finish, and the relatively low cost of keeping him around (in the Offseason Handbook, we estimated that he'd make $2.5 million in 2016) the decision to tender him a contract is a very defensible one. The downward strikeout trend is troubling, however, especially on a team that desperately needs to find more K's in the bullpen. All things considered, if Fien is the No. 3 right-hander in the bullpen heading into next season, he's nice to have on board. If he's the second option, routinely being called on to pitch the eighth inning, then some of the concerns surrounding him become magnified. So much will depend on what happens with Trevor May and with the remaining offseason moves. View full article

Now that he has addressed the needs for a catcher and power bat with the additions of John Ryan Murphy and Byung Ho Park, one of Terry Ryan's top priorities will be finding an impact lefty for the bullpen. Here's the latest on some candidates as next week's Winter Meetings approach. Image courtesy of David Richard, USA Today Now that he has addressed the needs for a catcher and power bat with the additions of John Ryan Murphy and Byung Ho Park, one of Terry Ryan's top priorities will be finding an impact lefty for the bullpen. Here's the latest on some candidates as next week's Winter Meetings approach. * According to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, the Twins "definitely have interest" in bringing back veteran Neal Cotts, who became a free agent at season's end after joining the Twins in August. Cotts, who turns 36 in March, posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 68 appearances this year, including 3.95 and 1.39 in 14 late-season appearances with Minnesota. He signed a one-year, $3 million deal with Milwaukee last offseason and figures to get something similar this time around. Cotts has been decent over the past of couple years but if the Twins are truly trying to craft a power pen, they should aim higher for their top lefty option. * In the same article, Berardino reports that free agent Brian Duensing hasn't heard from the Twins. Once a solid southpaw specialist, Duensing has declined steadily over the past few seasons to the point where he was roundly ineffective in 2015. The Twins are expected to move on. * Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweeted that the Twins have been in contact with Tony Sipp, who ranked as the No. 2 free agent left-handed reliever in the Offseason Handbook following a fantastic season with the Astros. It would probably cost a fair amount to get Sipp signed, but Ryan might be more inclined to meet his asking price given that the 32-year-old is effective against both lefties and righties, providing Paul Molitor more late-inning flexibility. Wolfson mentioned that he didn't get the sense an offer has been made to Sipp. * The best free agent lefty reliever is Antonio Bastardo, who has averaged 11 K/9 in his career and is only 30. In the Handbook we estimated that he would get a three-year, $21 million contract but there has been no public steam surrounding his market up to this point. It looks as though Darren O'Day, a righty who is one of the top relievers in free agency, is poised to sign somewhere soon, and once he does, I'd expect a bunch of other dominos to start falling. * The Rule 5 Draft takes place next Thursday. Ryan and the Twins have used this avenue to add bullpen arms twice in the past three years, though both Ryan Pressly and J.R. Graham were righties. Could the club target a left-handed reliever next Thursday? Baseball America's J.J. Cooper listed several names to remember in his Rule 5 preview last month, and among them were a few hard-throwing southpaws: Chicago's Onelki Garcia, Houston's Reymin Guduan and Kansas City's Sam Selman. All have posted big strikeout rates in the minors, but also have significant control issues that would inhibit their chances of finding fast success in the majors. Another to keep in mind: 22-year-old Cardinals prospect Luis Perdomo, who shares a name with the righty reliever who made 15 appearances for the Twins back in 2012. View full article

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving weekend. Let's get caught up on some of the latest Twins-related offseason stories as we prepare to flip the calendar to December. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving weekend. Let's get caught up on some of the latest Twins-related offseason stories as we prepare to flip the calendar to December. * Korean slugger Byung Ho Park is traveling to Minnesota this week, where his side will meet with the Twins in efforts to hammer out a deal ahead of the December 8th deadline, which is suddenly only a week away. The Twins won exclusive negotiating rights with Park in early November with a $12.85 million bid. Using the contract that Pittsburgh inked with fellow Korean Jung Ho Kang last year as a baseline, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press ballparks a prospective Park contract around five years and $32.5 million. That would represent a total investment of $45 million, which would signal a very strong belief in Park's ability. It would also mark the third straight offseason in which the Twins invest more than $40 million into a free agent. All expectations are that a deal will be finalized this week. * If Park does indeed sign, attention will shift to finding a spot for him in the lineup. Things have been quiet on the Trevor Plouffe trade rumor front up to this point, but that could change when the MLB Winter Meetings get underway in Nashville next Monday. Bringing general managers from all 30 teams together in one central location, the Winter Meetings often serve as a springboard for trade talks. A few weeks ago we took a look at Plouffe's potential trade market. Miguel Sano, who will need to move out of the DH spot in order to make room for Park, has recently missed some time in the Dominican Winter League team for what Berardino reports was a trip back to the United Sates at the Twins' request. Sano was expected to return to action this week. Curiously, he has played only at DH and third base in the winter league despite Twins officials holding the line that the current plan is to move him to the outfield in 2016. * The Tigers made their first big splash of the offseason this weekend when they agreed to terms with right-hander Jordan Zimmermann on a five-year, $110 million contract. It's a return to the midwest for the 29-year-old Zimmermann, who hails from Auburndale, WI, and played college ball three hours east of the Twin Cities in Stevens Point. He has spent his entire career pitching for the Nationals, compiling a 70-50 record with a 3.22 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and his control is elite. It will be interesting to see how his game translates to the American League. While the Twins were adding 13 wins to their 2014 total this year, the Tigers moved in the opposite direction by adding 15 losses and missing the playoffs for the first time in five seasons. They needed a replacement at the top of the rotation with David Price out of the picture, and it looks like they're betting on Zimmermann, who we ranked as the No. 4 free agent starter in the Offseason Handbook. Even with the addition of a premium arm, the Tigers have plenty to worry about going forward. Their roster is aging and they're not likely to get a whole lot of help from a farm system that was ranked by Baseball America in the spring as the worst in baseball (though, in fairness, was bolstered by the Price trade in July). View full article

As Thanksgiving arrives and we reflect on all of the many things that we are thankful for, our team at Twins Daily has no shortage of gratitude. As Thanksgiving arrives and we reflect on all of the many things that we are thankful for, our team at Twins Daily has no shortage of gratitude. First and foremost, we're thankful for our readers and commenters here on the site. You all have made this an amazing place to come and discuss our favorite team every day. So far this year, more than half a million unique visitors have stopped by Twins Daily, blowing away our total for the entirety of 2014. We are on track to approach 10 million page views. As long as you folks keep coming, we'll keeping working our hardest to provide the best independent baseball coverage in town. On that note, we're also thankful to everyone who has bought a copy of our Offseason Handbook. It's a fun (though exhausting) product to put together, and the reception in terms of sales and feedback made those efforts feel worthwhile. If you haven't picked up a copy yet, it makes a great read for the long holiday weekend as the Winter Meetings approach. We're thankful for our moderators, who maintain sanity and civility in our forums. That can be a tremendous challenge at times, but these individuals work tirelessly to ensure that the TD message boards remain a welcoming environment where fans of all stripes can feel comfortable expressing their viewpoints and exchanging ideas. We're thankful for every last blog contribution that is submitted to the site. I've read a lot of really great stuff here this year that didn't come from any of the core writers and I've discovered a number of new voices that I thoroughly enjoy. That was always a big part of the vision when we first launched three years ago. We're thankful this Twins team that we cover so obsessively has returned to relevance with a winning season and a clear upward trajectory. With a big wave of young talent entering the fold, and a couple of major moves already in the books here in this young offseason, there's plenty of reason for optimism that even better things are on the horizon. We're extremely excited for everything that lies ahead this winter and into next season. It's a great time to be a Twins fan and we're grateful to be able to share the ride with all of you. Have an awesome holiday! View full article

Gambling on those big numbers at AAA. It was pretty clear to me even from watching him a little bit that the stuff isn't MLB-caliber.

And the former brought us Escobar at SS. When you think about it, D-San's complete ineptitude may end up being a good thing. Had he hit semi-decently (650ish OPS), you wonder how long Molitor would have stuck with him and we'd have to deal with his lacking production and mistake-prone defense while Escobar continued to linger in a weird utility role. So yeah, while it's unfortunate that Santana and Vargas collapsed, it paved the way for #1 and #2 on this list.

His second half was rough, no doubt, to say that Dozier's overall season was less than satisfactory seems awfully harsh. He put up a 750 OPS with 28 HR, 39 doubles and 101 runs scored as a good defensive second baseman. That's pretty good.

This list is based more on long-term implications than simply impact on the 2015 season, which is why Erv's suspension wasn't listed. In the long run, it could actually be viewed as beneficial in a way. Saved some innings for his arm at the front end of a four-year deal. Plus, others pitched about as well as he could've been expected to during his absence. The magnitude of their drop-offs was striking, no doubt, but I viewed both more as placeholders than long-term fixtures, which is why their bad seasons were less concerning to me than guys like Meyer, Arcia and Pinto.

The 2015 season was largely a positive one for the Twins, and on Monday we touched on five of the most encouraging developments that took place. It wasn't all sunshine and roses, though. So today we'll look at the five most unfortunate things that transpired this year, from a big-picture perspective. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today The 2015 season was largely a positive one for the Twins, and on Monday we touched on five of the most encouraging developments that took place. It wasn't all sunshine and roses, though. So today we'll look at the five most unfortunate things that transpired this year, from a big-picture perspective. 1. Joe Mauer's decline continued We hoped that he would regain some of his diminished sharpness and plate discipline as he moved away from his concussion issues. We hoped the transition to first base would result in improved power numbers driven by stronger legs. We hoped that Mauer could return to being a star-caliber player whose veteran bat would be the centerpiece in an athletic young lineup. It hasn't happened. It's getting harder to believe it's going to happen. The 2015 season marked the first time that Mauer has ever posted an OPS+ below 100, ending a string of 11 consecutive above-average offensive performances dating back to 2004. He batted .265. He slugged .380 with 10 home runs from a power position. He struck out almost twice as often as he walked. His outstanding numbers with runners in scoring position prevented him from being a total liability, but with the bases empty (59 percent of his plate appearances) Mauer hit .232/.284/.349, while always batting at the top of the order. Throughout his career, he has made up for his lack of home run pop by being an on-base machine who consistently set up the hitters behind him for success. He didn't do that this year, and with a lack of injuries or limiting circumstances to point at, this is beginning to look like what Mauer truly is at age 32: a mediocre hitter who belongs closer to the bottom of the lineup than the top. For better or for worse, Mauer – still owed $23 million annually through 2018 – is going to be around for a while yet. We can only hope for better. 2. Josmil Pinto basically dropped out of the catcher conversation Pinto's receiving skills have long been considered marginal at best, but he nonetheless entered this season as the Twins' best hope for an eventual Kurt Suzuki replacement at catcher who could actually deliver some offensive punch. The hitting ability was there, so it was just a matter of making enough improvements defensively behind the plate in order for the Twins to entrust him with handling the pitching staff. Unfortunately, Pinto endured a very rough season that likely ends any real possibility of him becoming a regular backstop for the Twins. He battled ongoing concussion issues throughout the summer that cost him two months and limited him to 72 total games (in which he posted an ugly .669 OPS). After returning to Rochester in August, he played DH exclusively the rest of the way. When you combine the brain injury concerns with the iffy defensive abilities, it's increasingly difficult to imagine the Twins giving Pinto any kind of real shot to become their starting catcher, and that's a shame because no one else in the organization offers his kind of offensive upside at the position. That remains true even after the acquisition of John Ryan Murphy. 3. Glen Perkins fell apart in the second half Perkins' tailspin at the end of the 2014 season was a little worrisome, but he seemingly erased any doubts with a first half in 2015 that saw him convert every save chance while earning on All-Star nod. However, his quick and shocking drop-off after the break, and especially his costly poor outings late in the year, created some major question marks about his outlook going forward. Two springs ago, the Twins handed Perkins an extension through the 2017 season with hopes that he'd be their closer for the duration of that term. Now, Terry Ryan is reluctant to commit to Perk as the ninth-inning man for 2016, and no one can blame him. The lefty was consistently ineffective for the final two months this year. After the All-Star Game, he never put together three consecutive appearances without allowing a run. Opponents batted .360 against him with seven home runs. Given that Perkins has now tailed off in the late stages of back-to-back seasons, could this be an issue of preparation and conditioning? Ryan seemingly intimated such with this answer in his Offseason Handbook interview: http://s16.postimg.org/6ow3j6o2t/TRperk.png If that's the case, the problem at least seems correctable. Perkins doesn't strike me as the type of guy who's going to sit back and tolerate this kind of performance from himself, so perhaps his heartbreaking finish in 2015 will serve as a wake-up call. 4. Alex Meyer unraveled When the Twins traded Denard Span to the Nationals back in 2012, they acquired a player that they viewed as a potential front-end starting pitcher. Meyer cultivated his ace-in-waiting status during his first couple years in Minnesota's system, putting up huge strikeout numbers while shutting down minor league hitters at Double-A and Triple-A. This year, however, everything came undone. Meyer floundered in the International League, which he had dominated in 2014. From spring training through September, the big right-hander constantly struggled to find the strike zone... and his confidence. It's far too soon to give up on the 25-year-old Meyer. But it might be time to give up on the idea of him as a starter. With his command issues and resulting huge pitch counts, he had an uphill climb in order to break into the rotation for a Twins team that values efficiency and deep outings from starters. He spent most of this season in the bullpen and it's looking like that is where his future lies. The good news is that he can be a major asset there, with triple-digit heat and a wipe-out breaking ball. The bad news is that removing him from the rotation equation leaves the Twins system very thin on high-ceiling starters that miss bats. 5. Oswaldo Arcia stopped hitting Over the years, Arcia has exhibited some notable downsides – namely, a dreadful lack of range in the outfield and some boisterous mannerisms on the field that tend to rub some people the wrong way. He has made up for these things, however, by consistently hitting the crap out of the ball. Arcia rose fast through the minors, clobbering the competition at each stop, and reached the big leagues at age 21. He has accumulated a .741 OPS with 36 home runs in 853 MLB plate appearances, all before turning 25, becoming one of the most accomplished hitters in the game for his age. He looked like a long-term fixture in the middle of the lineup. Arcia was beginning to heat up after a slow start this year before landing on the disabled list in May. He headed to Triple-A after being reinstated, seemingly for a temporary rehab stint, but never returned to the Twins. At Rochester, Arcia's bat went amiss for the first time in his career. Outside of a brief home run flurry in July, he was inexplicably flat-out awful against Triple-A pitching for a full three months, batting just .199 with a .630 OPS while showing almost no plate discipline. His lost year puts the Twins in a tough position, because Arcia will be out of options next spring, meaning he'll either need to be rostered or exposed to waivers. It's tough to count on him after his brutal showing in 2015, but it'd be even tougher to simply let his potent lefty power bat slip away. View full article

Yep. Duffey and Kepler were definitely in the running for the fifth spot but ultimately I went with Rosario because he did his thing over almost a full season in the majors.