Nick Nelson

The offseason started off with a bang for the Minnesota Twins, whose winning bid for Korean star Byung Ho Park was announced just a week after the conclusion of the World Series. That news was followed a couple days later by the Aaron Hicks-for-John Ryan Murphy trade, but since then, it's been an awfully quiet couple of months for Terry Ryan and the front office. Most conspicuously, the Twins have done nothing to address their questionable bullpen, outside of tendering a contract to Casey Fien and doling out a handful of minor-league contracts. If the chilly Hot Stove season has got you down, keep in mind that we still have more than six weeks remaining until pitchers and catchers report, and as you'll see below, there are numerous options still available at areas of need for the Twins. Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, USA Today The offseason started off with a bang for the Minnesota Twins, whose winning bid for Korean star Byung Ho Park was announced just a week after the conclusion of the World Series. That news was followed a couple days later by the Aaron Hicks-for-John Ryan Murphy trade, but since then, it's been an awfully quiet couple of months for Terry Ryan and the front office. Most conspicuously, the Twins have done nothing to address their questionable bullpen, outside of tendering a contract to Casey Fien and doling out a handful of minor-league contracts. If the chilly Hot Stove season has got you down, keep in mind that we still have more than six weeks remaining until pitchers and catchers report, and as you'll see below, there are numerous options still available at areas of need for the Twins. Where Things Stand We still won't know for a few more weeks what the exact salary figures will look like for Minnesota's arbitration-eligible players, but based on our estimates the current projected payroll stands at around $108 million. If you add the entirety of Byung Ho Park's posting fee, that number jumps to about $120 million. The Twins entered the 2015 season with a payroll of $108.3 million, so depending on how you look at it, they presently stand either right around, or slightly ahead of, last year's benchmark. Either way, there's little reason to believe that Ryan does not have flexibility to add at this point, especially with spending continually rising across the league. From everything we've heard, it sounds like his primary reluctance in the free agent arena has not been a strict matter of dollars, but rather giving out long-term commitments that could potentially clog the system's internal pipeline. With the holiday lull coming to an end, we will see a fresh wave of activity across baseball over the coming weeks, in terms of signings and trades. Will the Twins take part in the action? Who might they be interested in that is still out there? Free Agent Relievers Many of the big names have come off the market over the past couple months, but numerous intriguing options remain. The biggest fish left in the sea is probably Tyler Clippard, the 30-year-old right-hander with a very consistent track record that includes multiple stints as a closer. He seems likely to land a multi-year deal, which might rule him out for the Twins, who are more urgently seeking a left-hander anyway. In that department, one name clearly stands out. Antonio Bastardo was the No. 1 free agent lefty reliever on the market in the Offseason Handbook and would be a tremendously impactful addition for the Twins bullpen, but he is said to be seeking a contract similar to the three-year, $18 million deal signed by Tony Sipp last month. It's difficult to envision Ryan wading into those waters, especially given the southpaw's frequent struggles with control. ESPN's Buster Olney reported this week that the Orioles and Mets have been in talks with Bastardo, who hasn't been publicly tied to the Twins. With Ryan evidently targeting short-term deals – most likely one-year commitments – a veteran hurler in the second tier is going to be more in his wheelhouse. There are a lot of names that fit that category: Matt Thornton, Neal Cotts, Franklin Morales, Manny Parra, Randy Choate. These aren't the kinds of arms that will dramatically upgrade the relief corps, but they would certainly add a bit more assurance to the unit and wouldn't inhibit internal options long-term. I find it extremely likely that the Twins will end up adding one of the pitchers in that group, on something like a one-year, $3 million contract. Injury Gamble? Ryan has a history of success with reclamation projects, with one example being Jared Burton, who came to the team on a minor-league contract after battling shoulder problems and reemerged as a quality setup man in Minnesota. Could Sean Marshall follow a similar path? From 2010 through 2012, Marshall was one of the best left-handed relievers in the game, posting a 2.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 and 2.5 K/9 in 231 trips to the mound for the Reds and Cubs. Since the start of the 2013 season, however, he has totalled only 31 appearances, and he didn't pitch at all in 2015. Two shoulder operations and a litany of setbacks have cast serious doubt on his future. Marshall told the Cincinnati Enquirer in September that he wants to keep playing and was toying with a new arm angle. He's obviously a long shot, but if he looks good in his throwing sessions, he would be a nice no-risk gamble with some upside much like Fernando Abad. If he can return anywhere close to his previous form, he'd be a big pick-up. Storen Still Standing I've been beating the Drew Storen drum since mid-September, at which point it was already apparent that the Nationals would be shopping the righty reliever, and that he might be available at a discount given his tumultuous second half. Storen remains a National here in early January, but Jon Morosi of FOX Sports wrote this week that Washington is still trying to trade him. At this point in the offseason, one has to imagine that the asking price has dropped a bit. He's still only 27, he has high-end ability, and he has only one year of team control remaining. He isn't left-handed, obviously, but would be a transformative acquisition for the bullpen in 2016. Can Ryan pull together a package that will get it done without hampering the big picture? What About The Outfield? The search continues for an additional outfielder. Right now the names in that mix are Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Oswaldo Arcia and Danny Santana. (Max Kepler could be added to that list, but I can't see him being a factor until midseason at least.) That's a group with little built-up equity that could use some established veteran backing. Among the fourth outfielder types who could fill a Shane Robinson role are Johnny Gomes, Matt Joyce, Skip Schumaker, Chris Denorfia, David Lough and others. The challenge is in finding a player who could hold his own as a regular over an extended period but would not necessarily have an expectation of being a starter for the entire season. Surely the Twins' hope is to have some combination of the aforementioned youngsters firmly entrenched by September. Span Reunion? We'll round out the outfield discussion with a familiar face. Denard Span remains mired in free agency despite very strong results over the last two years (.301/.358/.421), because he's coming off September hip surgery. The other day Span posted the following tweet, which seems to suggest that he's recovering pretty well: https://twitter.com/thisisdspan/status/684047970493403136 The fact that the 31-year-old outfielder is campaigning on his own behalf here in January may indicate that he's not finding the kind of reception he's hoping for on the market. If he's open to taking a one-year deal to bolster his value, that might present an advantageous opportunity for the Twins. Obviously he has familiarity here, and his offensive skill set would be welcomed given the current lack of a prototypical leadoff type. But it brings us back to the playing time equation. Can the Twins promise Span the role he wants without putting themselves in position to block a younger player who is ready to step in? Who would you like to see the team pursue? View full article

With the calendar flipping to a new year, we're suddenly less than two months away from the Minnesota Twins' first spring training game. It's been a mostly quiet offseason for the front office, but their one big splash is among five reasons that fans should be downright giddy for this 2016 season to get started. It's going to be a fun one. Image courtesy of Kim Klement, USA Today With the calendar flipping to a new year, we're suddenly less than two months away from the Minnesota Twins' first spring training game. It's been a mostly quiet offseason for the front office, but their one big splash is among five reasons that fans should be downright giddy for this 2016 season to get started. It's going to be a fun one. 1) Byung Ho Park arrives Even though the Tsuyoshi Nishioka move didn't work out, there was no denying that his arrival brought a distinct twist of added excitement. Bringing over an established star from another league across the world carries an intoxicating combination of unpredictability and intrigue, not to mention many extra media throngs covering the team. There are plenty of reasons to believe that Park is in line for a much more successful transition to the majors. Finding out how his prodigious 50-homer power transfers from KBO to MLB will be a primary storyline this season from the moment the team reports to Ft. Myers. 2) Miguel Sano settles in Sano was called up on July 2nd last year, and his at-bats quickly became appointment viewing. In 2016 he'll be locked in from the start of the season, and we'll see what kind of numbers he can put up over the course of a full big-league campaign. I'm sure I speak for a lot of fans when I say I'm more apprehensive than enthused about the experiment of trying Sano in the outfield defensively, but at the plate, there's not much reason to think he can't put up monster numbers that border on MVP caliber, especially if Park proves to be a decent threat behind him. 3) Jose Berrios debuts By the end of last year, it was fairly obvious that Berrios was ready for a shot in the majors, but the Twins ultimately opted against calling him up and their reasons for doing so were valid. In 2016, there will be no holding him back as long as he's healthy. It seems likely that Berrios will open the season back in Triple-A (the Twins stand to gain an extra year of service time by waiting until at least late April to promote him), but he'll be first in line as a replacement and he might force the issue if he picks up where he left off at Rochester performance-wise. Berrios is the best and most electric pitching prospect Minnesota has had since Francisco Liriano, and he certainly stands out amongst a mix of starting pitchers that are generally more capable than special. 4. Byron Buxton breaks through Terry Ryan's decision to trade Aaron Hicks in November was seemingly an indication that he believes in Buxton's impending readiness, in spite of the top prospect looking rather overwhelmed during his rookie debut. He could open the season in Rochester but it's hard to imagine he'll be there long. Historically, Buxton has often experienced a bit of a learning curve when reaching a new level before making adjustments and dominating. We'll see if he can follow that trend at the highest level. Once he turns the corner at the plate, he's going to be an absolute blast to watch on a daily basis, changing games routinely with his dynamic speed and elite athleticism. 5. The rotation comes together In 2015, Twins starters ranked 16th in the majors in ERA, which might not sound all that impressive until you consider that they'd been dead last in each of the prior two seasons, and 29th in 2012. They accomplished this jump despite: Ricky Nolasco missing most of the year due to injury, Phil Hughes devolving from the club's best starter in 2014 to its worst, Ervin Santana losing half the year to a suspension, and Berrios throwing zero pitches in the majors. As long as the rotation can stay healthy through spring training, the Twins will enter the 2016 season feeling as confident in their starting pitching as they have in a long while, and perhaps more so than any team in the division other than Cleveland. View full article

To say that the Twins have not traditionally been a team that specializes in power-hitting would be a late entrant for "Most Obvious Statement of 2015." Anyone who has followed Minnesota baseball knows that home runs have generally been a little tough to come by around these parts. In the past decade, the Twins have never ranked in the top half of the American League in long balls, and they've been last or second-to-last five times during that span. There's reason to think that trend might be changing, though. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today To say that the Twins have not traditionally been a team that specializes in power-hitting would be a late entrant for "Most Obvious Statement of 2015." Anyone who has followed Minnesota baseball knows that home runs have generally been a little tough to come by around these parts. In the past decade, the Twins have never ranked in the top half of the American League in long balls, and they've been last or second-to-last five times during that span. There's reason to think that trend might be changing, though. We have already begun to see some upward movement. After ranking at the bottom of the AL in homers in both 2011 and 2012, the Twins took a step forward in 2013, going deep 151 times to rank 11th with seven different players reaching double-digits. In 2014 they once again ranked 11th and this year they moved up to 10th. That might not sound like any kind of major accomplishment but it marks the first time that Minnesota has broken into the Top 10 since 2004, which also happens to be the last time they won a playoff game. That year, a lineup powered by 20+ HR efforts from Corey Koskie, Jacque Jones and Torii Hunter piled up a total of 191 bombs, most for a Twins team since 1987. It's unlikely they're going to get back to that total in this era of lowered offense (12 teams hit 191 or more homers in 2004, while five did so in 2015), but it's quite plausible that they could once again approach a Top 5 rank in the American League, maybe even as soon as next year. These five players are big reasons why: Miguel Sano He is the obvious starting point. As a 22-year-old rookie seeing MLB pitching for the first time after skipping Triple-A, Sano hit 18 home runs in 80 games this year with the Twins. When you include his 15 homers at Chattanooga prior to being called up, that pushes his season total to 33. Forty is a realistic target for this elite slugging talent. If Sano is in the lineup alongside Trevor Plouffe, rather than as his replacement, those two alone could combine for 60 long balls. Byung Ho Park The biggest acquisition of the offseason thus far, Park launched 53 home runs in Korea this year after going deep 52 times in 2014. In total, he has amassed 173 homers over the past four seasons across the pond. While it's impossible to predict how that prodigious power will translate to the majors, one predictive model estimates 27 dingers next year. That would be the highest total for a regular Twins DH since Jason Kubel's 28 in 2009. Brian Dozier It's not being talked about much because of his ugly second half, but Dozier took another big step forward in the power department this year, clubbing a career-high 28 home runs. That total was 33 percent higher than the No. 2 second baseman, Robinson Cano. Based on his HR progression in three years as a full-time starter (from 18 to 23 to 28), his 2015 production looks like no fluke. If he comes close to 30 again next year, he'll give the Twins a big edge at a position that is typically low on pop. Eduardo Escobar Escobar is another guy who gives the Twins a key positional power advantage. His .445 slugging percentage in 2015 outranked all qualified MLB shortstops other than Brandon Crawford of the Giants. Escobar hit 12 home runs in 127 games this year, which projects to about 15 in a full season. No Minnesota shortstop has reached that total since Roy Smalley in 1979. Dozier and Escobar provide a tremendous power combo up the middle that helps offset the offense's clear weakness at first base. Oswaldo Arcia The forgotten man. While his brutal 2015 campaign may have a number of fans down on him, it's important to remember that, among players 24 and under, Arcia's 36 home runs since 2013 ranks 12th in the majors. Since he's out of options and the Twins currently project to have at least one corner outfield opening, I'd expect to see him starting next year with a chance to reestablish his intimidating bat in the middle of the lineup. Wild Cards: Kennys Vargas and Adam Walker Vargas is on the outs right now, but he remains on the 40-man roster and would be in line for substantial playing time if either Park or Joe Mauer were to go down with an injury. A massive specimen at 6'5" 290 and still only 25 years old, Vargas' potential in the HR column is obvious, especially if you've ever seen him take BP. Meanwhile, Walker was just added to the 40-man last month after ranking fourth among all minor-leaguers with 31 bombs for Class-AA Chattanooga this year. Many believe that he has the most raw power of any player in the organization -- quite the statement in a system that also includes Sano and Vargas. Another name to keep in mind is Daniel Palka, the 24-year-old outfielder acquired from Arizona in the Chris Herrmann deal who hit 29 homers at Double-A this year. If they all stay healthy and play up to their demonstrated ability level, it's not unthinkable that six players -- Sano (35), Dozier (25), Park (25), Plouffe (20), Arcia (20), Escobar (15) -- could combine to come close to Minnesota's 2015 team home run total of 156. Sprinkle in some output from guys like Mauer and Eddie Rosario, as well as perhaps a little extra from the wild cards mentioned above, and you have the makings of a legitimate power-hitting lineup that can match up against some of the league's best. It's been a long time since we've been able to say that around here. View full article

I see Nolasco as part of a separate discussion. IMO he's keeping the Berrios spot warm. Start Nolasco in the rotation, Berrios in AAA. Once Berrios passes the service clock deadline that extends his control by a year (late April), if Nolasco hasn't impressed in his first handful of starts, call up Berrios and push Nolasco to long relief. If Nolasco is looking good, then Berrios is first in line as an injury/performance replacement, assuming he's getting it done in Rochester.

In 2012, Milone made 31 starts for a playoff team and started Game 2 in the ALDS, tossing 6 innings of one-run ball against a high-powered Detroit offense. That's an oversimplification. As the splits in this article show, Milone is a guy who gets better as he settles in and finds his groove. That's the case for a lot of pitchers with his type of profile.

In discussions of how the 2016 Twins rotation might shape up, one thing that I've been noticing is that fans seem rather sour on Tommy Milone. I don't fully understand why. Image courtesy of Ken Blaze, USA Today In discussions of how the 2016 Twins rotation might shape up, one thing that I've been noticing is that fans seem rather sour on Tommy Milone. I don't fully understand why. When it became clear last week that Paul Molitor is planning to put Trevor May in the bullpen, much of the frustration I saw related to the fact that the Twins would opt for a pitcher like Milone in the rotation. The rationale, then, must be that May is likely to be so much better than Milone as a starter that it cancels out the edge gained by utilizing his potent skills as a reliever. May certainly has more upside, I don't think anyone would deny that. He has the ability to be a No. 2 or No. 3 type in a rotation, and that's hard to envision with Milone. But there is value in a quality fourth or fifth starter, and Milone has very consistently been that. Here are some reasons that I think people need to appreciate Milone a little more, particularly as it pertains to this discussion: He has never been bad. He has had bad stretches. But since coming to the big leagues in 2011, Milone has never truly been bad over the course of a full year. His worst season-ending ERA was 4.19, and that came in 2014 when he finished on an uncharacteristically brutal note after being traded to Minnesota. He has never had an ERA+ above 105 or below 90, so you pretty much know what you're getting. He's reliably average, and there's value in that; for proof, look no further than the deal Mike Leake signed with the Cardinals this week. Lineups don't adjust to him. In contemplating May's merits as a starting pitcher, I think these splits (via Baseball Reference) are worth considering: That's how May has fared the first, second and third time through the lineup in his MLB career. As you can see, he gets noticeably worse each time through, and what stands out in particular is the K/BB ratios. (Of course, the sample size for May is quite small – he only has 25 major-league starts, less than a full season's worth.) Here are the same career splits for Milone: It looks like opposing hitters jump on him right away occasionally, but they don't adjust to his lower velocity and start crushing him. Quite the opposite. He doesn't seem to offer much as a reliever. This is a big piece of this thing that many seem to overlook. We know that May has the ability to be a transformative asset in the bullpen. Do we think Milone can really provide much value there at all, outside of serving as a long reliever or mop-up guy? Milone doesn't really have the kind of splits that you'd want in a lefty specialist, and my non-scouting eye doesn't see his stuff playing up all that much in short stints. There's just not a lot of benefit to be seen there, which is probably why only nine of his 213 appearances as a pro have been in relief. Now to be clear, none of this is meant to downplay May, who I still want to see in the rotation long-term. But to suggest that the Twins are shooting themselves in the foot by preferring Milone over him as a starter right now ignores the qualities that the lefty brings to the table, as well as the comparative advantage of moving May to the bullpen instead. View full article

As we proceed through a festive holiday week and prepare for the downtime that always coincides with this portion of the offseason calendar, let's get caught up on three noteworthy Twins tidbits. Image courtesy of Bob Stanton, USA Today As we proceed through a festive holiday week and prepare for the downtime that always coincides with this portion of the offseason calendar, let's get caught up on three noteworthy Twins tidbits. * The Twins' efforts to address their need for a left-handed reliever have not yet yielded any big names or even guaranteed contracts, but Terry Ryan has at least built up a stable of interesting options. Among the group of players signed to minor-league deals last week was Buddy Boshers, a 27-year-old who doesn't have much of an MLB track record but has averaged a strikeout per inning in the minors and is coming off an eye-opening season in independent ball. Later in the week the Twins added another southpaw on a minor-league contract and he looks like a better bet than Bosher. Given his effectiveness and durability over the past three seasons (170 appearances, 2.90 ERA, 8.1 K/9 for Nats and Athletics), it is a little surprising that Fernando Abad couldn't land a big-league deal, but presumably the Twins will give him every chance to earn a spot in March. Abad doesn't really qualify as a "lefty specialist" because he doesn't typically post stronger splits against left-handed hitters, but at his best he is a roundly effective reliever and could be a very solid bullpen piece. His velocity has declined in two straight years, and that's a troublesome sign that likely led to his settling for a non-guaranteed deal with a spring training invite. Still, there's quite a bit to work with there. I'd consider Abad the front-runner among current lefty candidates for the bullpen, a group that now includes him, Bosher, Taylor Rogers, Ryan O'Rourke and Pat Dean (maybe Tommy Milone, too?). Out of that group, it's reasonable to believe that at least one will emerge as a quality big-league piece. The question is how effectively the coaching staff will be able to identify the best option, and how adaptive they will be when it comes to making in-season adjustments. Last year, the team's hesitation to remove Aaron Thompson from the bullpen even after it became clear that he wasn't getting the job done hurt them, repeatedly. Even with these intriguing names in the mix, I would still like to see the Twins go out and acquire an established trustworthy southpaw, via free agency or trade, to serve as the top lefty in the pen. It's tough to dislike moves such as the Abad and Bosher signings in isolation, but if that ends up being all that Ryan does to address this blatant need, I think there's going to be a lot of justified disappointment and frustration. Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN relayed last week that the Twins may indeed have some interest in Antonio Bastardo, who is the best remaining left-handed reliever on the free agent market. The 30-year-old Bastardo reportedly is looking for a deal similar to the one Tony Sipp got from the Astros (three years, $18 million), so we'll see. * The Orange County published a column from Marcia Smith over the weekend updating us on Twins legend and Hall of Famer Rod Carew, who suffered a massive heart attack two months ago and nearly lost his life. As Smith writes, Carew now wears a vest that controls and powers an implanted LVAD (left ventricular assist device), which helps his damaged heart by pumping blood continuously through his body. You can see a diagram of how it works on Mayo Clinic's website. Smith's article, which also mentions a recent three-day visit from Tony Oliva, is well worth the read. I'm sure I speak for all of Twins Territory when I say that I'm very glad Rod is still with us, and wish him the best in his ongoing recovery. * This note is only tangentially Twins-related, but we learned last week that Kyler Murray, one of the top-ranked quarterback prospects in college football, has decided to transfer from Texas A&M. He became the second highly-rated young QB to request a transfer from the school within a one-week span, following the departure of Kyle Allen. Of course, A&M also lost out on another recognizable QB recruit not so long ago. Prior to the 2013 MLB draft, Kohl Stewart had a scholarship to go play football for the Aggies. A four-star recruit after piling up 8,803 passing yards and 87 touchdowns in his high school career, Stewart was renowned for his pro-style skill set. Had he followed through on his college commitment, he would have likely been a redshirt sophomore with A&M right now. Instead, he signed with the Twins after being selected fourth overall, and he just finished his third season of pro ball, in which he posted a 3.20 ERA over 22 starts with the Ft. Myers Miracle. Although his strikeout totals have been alarmingly low, Stewart remains one of the organization's top pitching prospects and he seems likely to reach Double-A as a 21-year-old in 2016. He's probably feeling pretty good about his decision to go with baseball. Texas A&M, suddenly starved for quarterback talent, might be feeling a little differently. View full article

Something else to consider: http://content.screencast.com/users/Nick_TSM/folders/Jing/media/9a1c9751-d08b-41af-a41b-feb7ae756e5d/2015-12-18_1155.png

The same people who are outraged that May is being blocked from the rotation by Nolasco and his bulky contract are also demanding that the team sign aging relievers to expensive three-year deals. Does not compute. While I have also been frustrated with the team's lack of significant activity in free agency, going with May gives them much more flexibility, because if some of those young guns develop as hoped, May can be shifted back to the rotation or traded for good value. That is probably not true of any expensive veteran FA signing that requires a 3+ year commitment.

Good comments so far. As I expected, almost no one agrees with me. A few thoughts... That's really dependent on the relative improvements, isn't it? How much better is he as a starter than the guy he'd be replacing? And how much better is he than the reliever he'd be replacing? For this year, as things are presently laid out, I think he's a bigger upgrade for the bullpen. Long-term I tend to agree with your view on getting more value out of him in a starting role. But I think it's really important to look at this move as temporary rather than permanent. And they're not giving up on him as one. They're using him in the capacity that they feel he helps them most for the time being. Sunk costs, plural? Who can you make that argument for other than Nolasco? I'm in full agreement that the Twins need to make more significant moves to address the bullpen, but also think you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy with May's ability on the open market without a vast overpay. I'm honestly more concerned about the lack of strikeouts in the bullpen than in the rotation at this point. You can't just overlook that issue. They should have some starters capable of missing bats (Santana, Duffey, Hughes if his FB comes back, Berrios soon enough).

Earlier this week, Paul Molitor confirmed what many of us have expected all along: Trevor May is ticketed for a relief role in 2016. "Unless something changes, he is probably going to be a guy I want to keep out in the bullpen," the manager said in a conference call with season-ticket holders on Tuesday. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today Earlier this week, Paul Molitor confirmed what many of us have expected all along: Trevor May is ticketed for a relief role in 2016. "Unless something changes, he is probably going to be a guy I want to keep out in the bullpen," the manager said in a conference call with season-ticket holders on Tuesday. Now, that isn't exactly an explicit guarantee that May will open the season as a reliever, but it's a big leap from the "We're asking him prepare for spring training as a starter and we'll see what happens" line that Twins officials have been sticking with through most of the offseason. In many ways, this is a frustrating development, both for fans who were eager to see what the right-hander could do with a full-time starting gig, and even more so for May himself. There's little doubt that he would prefer to be in the rotation. If May feels like he's being unfairly victimized for rising to the occasion when asked to transition into an unfamiliar role last year, one could hardly blame him. But it's also pretty easy to see and understand the team's thinking here. As we've discussed frequently, quality bullpens are becoming increasingly imperative in today's game, and in recent weeks we've seen contenders around the league take drastic steps to power up their relief corps. May possesses a higher ceiling, and I would argue a higher floor, than multiple pitchers that will be competing for rotation spots in front of him. His emergence last year as a rare Twins starter capable of actually striking people out was a breath of fresh air, and contributed to much of the promise that we saw in this starting unit going forward. Removing him from that mix puts a damper on the outlook for the rotation, but there are still quite a few respectable names in play. Even if you've completely given up on Ricky Nolasco (I haven't), you've still got Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone, Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios vying for spots. And it's important to remember that the 26-year-old May's fate is not being permanently sealed by any means. If injuries strike or multiple starters unravel, stretching May out and reverting him to his natural role isn't all that difficult. Moreover, if some of the big relief arms in the minors turn the corner, May can go back to starting in 2017. Adam Wainwright came up for the Cardinals as a starter but spent his full rookie season as a late-inning reliever in 2006; the next year they moved him back to the rotation and the rest is history. Right now, with those aforementioned relief prospects still uncertainties at best, the Twins quite simply need May more in the bullpen than in the rotation. While the latter is far from an obvious strong point, they do have some reliable quality within that group. The relief picture is far more jumbled, and that's a serious concern that could put them at a significant competitive disadvantage. With what he showed last year in his first prolonged exposure in the pen, May has given us plenty of reason to believe he can be a shut-down setup man and perhaps the club's bullpen ace. As well as he performed when thrown into the fire, I'm very interested to see what he can do heading into a season with the preparation and mindset of a relief pitcher. Would it be nice if the Twins went out and got themselves an impact relief arm via trade or free agency rather than further clouding a murky bullpen situation by gambling on a bunch of minor-league contracts? Yes, and they still might. Depth is good. But when they look at May, they see a guy who is every bit as capable as some of the veterans getting expensive three-year deals, and one who provides them with a lot more flexibility and freedom going forward. For now, it's the right call. ~~~ Not everyone agrees, of course. Tom Froemming argues that Trevor May should be in the rotation. What do you think? View full article

Things have played out slowly this offseason for the Minnesota Twins since the early splashes with Byung Ho Park and John Ryan Murphy. We're still waiting for significant moves to address the roster's remaining holes, but the organization did announce a series of minor-league signings on Tuesday. For a couple of reasons, this group is worthy of a closer look. Image courtesy of Kevin Jairaj, USA Today Things have played out slowly this offseason for the Minnesota Twins since the early splashes with Byung Ho Park and John Ryan Murphy. We're still waiting for significant moves to address the roster's remaining holes, but the organization did announce a series of minor-league signings on Tuesday. For a couple of reasons, this group is worthy of a closer look. In recent years, players signed to minor-league deals have frequently ended up on the Opening Day roster. Recent examples include Blaine Boyer, Shane Robinson, Jason Kubel, Jason Bartlett, Wilkin Ramirez and Jared Burton. Granted, those players all had spring training invites attached to their contracts, and to my knowledge none of the newly signed guys do. But considering that these acquisitions all have some MLB experience, and all conspicuously add depth at areas that are very much in flux on the big-league roster, they are noteworthy. It wouldn't be too surprising to see any of the four appear for the Twins next year. Darin Mastroianni, OF Hey, we know him! The Twins have been on the hunt for a fourth outfielder – a role that Mastroianni filled in Minnesota for parts of three seasons. He's a poor candidate for that role now, offering no real stand-out skills other than base-stealing, but he can play all around the outfield and will provide some depth at Rochester. Wilfredo Tovar, SS How many shortstops do the Twins have that they can trust defensively? Eduardo Escobar is good, but Danny Santana is overly error-prone, and Eduardo Nunez is more of an emergency option at the position. Many believe that Jorge Polanco will end up at second. Mike Berardino reported on Tuesday that Engelb Vielma, a slick-gloved 21-year-old, will be invited to big-league camp. He might be the best defensive shortstop in the organization, but he hasn't played above Single-A and has a .306 slugging percentage in the minors. Tovar comes over from the Mets system with a very good reputation as a fielder, and he has had a couple sips of coffee in the majors, though he doesn't hit much. It doesn't hurt to add another quality shortstop glove into the mix, and Tovar is still only 24. Brandon Kintzler, RHP Kintzler has quite a bit of experience at the highest level, having compiled 172 appearances for the Milwaukee Brewers over the past six seasons, all out of the bullpen. At his best, he was a reliable setup man, routinely pitching the eighth inning ahead of closer Jim Henderson in 2013. Kintzler has been hampered by shoulder issues recently, but the same was also true of Jared Burton when the Twins picked him up under similar circumstances. That didn't turn out too badly. Buddy Boshers, LHP By all accounts, finding lefty relief help is currently Ryan's top priority. Bosher, a 27-year-old who hasn't pitched in the majors outside of a brief stint in 2013, is a bit of a long shot, but he is probably the most intriguing player in this batch. A former fourth-round pick by the Angels, has shown some ability in the minors, averaging a strikeout per inning while posting a 3.67 ERA over seven seasons. Last year he pitched for the Somerset Patriots in indy ball, and must have caught the eye of the Twins scouting department while putting up a 1.00 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 71-to-14 K/BB ratio out in 54 relief appearances. Bosher is a lotto ticket, but he does offer some enigmatic upside that you don't typically find with these kinds of signings. Plus, that name! He's one to keep an eye on. View full article

Really? Because last year both May and Pelfrey were out of the rotation that the Twins announced at the end of spring training, and were both in it two weeks later. You are drastically underestimating the amount of rotation turnover that takes place throughout a season, even in the early weeks.

He did have a horrible year. But he's 24 and that horrible year was preceded by a bunch of very good ones. You don't give up on a young hitter of Arcia's caliber because of one bad season. With a corner outfield spot open, and with a couple young outfielders likely to be ready after a couple weeks (or months) in the minors, this seems like a good opportunity to let Arcia sink or swim. I'm optimistic that he'll bounce back.

I see a lot of people grumbling about the idea of Milone and (especially) Nolasco in the rotation over Duffey and Berrios to start the year. I think it's important to keep in mind that nothing on Opening Day is permanent. Obviously, much of this will be dictated in spring training, for better or worse. If Nolasco looks like crap I don't think they're going to just throw him into the rotation anyway. However, I do believe he will have a leg up. The Twins are paying him a lot of money to start games and he hasn't really had an extended chance to do so when healthy over the last two years. If they're going to take a drastic step like sending Nolasco to the bullpen or (even more so) a straight-up release, I think they want to be sure he can't help them as a starter. There's not a lot of risk in giving him a month's worth of starts out of the gates, especially when you look at the service time benefits of giving Berrios at least a few weeks at Triple-A. As far as Milone goes, again, that's going to play out in ST but I think the Twins like having a lefty in the rotation, he has an experience edge over Duffey/Berrios, and I'm not sure he does much for you as a reliever. It's important to keep in mind that last year was something of an outlier for the Twins in terms of rotation stability. Outside of Nolasco, they didn't really have anyone get seriously hurt or melt down. I wouldn't expect the same thing this year. Depth is important. To me, starting the year with Nolasco and Milone in the rotation is the best way to preserve that depth and keep quality arms at the ready.

Terry Ryan came away from last week's Winter Meetings without any significant roster additions, but the general manager made it clear that progress was made on various fronts, and that he expects to complete at least one move within the coming weeks. To get an idea of what he and the front office need to get done in the remaining two months of the offseason, let's take a look at how a 2016 club might come together if the present configuration were to go unchanged. Where can the Twins reasonably rely on internal options to fill holes? Where do they absolutely need outside help? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today Terry Ryan came away from last week's Winter Meetings without any significant roster additions, but the general manager made it clear that progress was made on various fronts, and that he expects to complete at least one move within the coming weeks. To get an idea of what he and the front office need to get done in the remaining two months of the offseason, let's take a look at how a 2016 club might come together if the present configuration were to go unchanged. Where can the Twins reasonably rely on internal options to fill holes? Where do they absolutely need outside help? CATCHER Starter: Kurt Suzuki Backup: John Ryan Murphy Depth: John Hicks, Stuart Turner, Mitch Garver It looks like this is the group they'll head into the season with. This might not be the emphatic upgrade fans were hoping for after the catcher position emerged as a major problem spot in 2015, but the Twins are banking on Suzuki returning closer to his (albeit mediocre) career norm while the 24-year-old Murphy builds on his impressive .277/.327/.406 line from this year with the Yankees. INFIELD 1B: Joe Mauer 2B: Brian Dozier SS: Eduardo Escobar 3B: Trevor Plouffe Backups: Eduardo Nunez and Danny Santana Depth: Jorge Polanco, James Beresford Ryan keeps insisting that he's not shopping Plouffe, and there haven't been many rumors popping up surrounding the third baseman's market, so at this point we're operating under the assumption that he's going to be here. Nunez and Santana are actually a pretty nice backup duo, with each offering the versatility to play multiple infield and outfield positions while bringing some speed and offensive upside. Though Plouffe's status remains up in the air, Minnesota certainly doesn't need to make any further additions in the infield. OUTFIELD LF: Miguel Sano CF: Eddie Rosario RF: Oswaldo Arcia Backups: ? Depth: Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Adam Walker, Daniel Palka As I see it, the plan is for Buxton to start in Triple-A, but the Twins will give him a chance to win the center field job with a convincing demonstration in spring training. Ryan has said that he views Sano as a better fit in right field, but Molitor prefers him in left and it's his call so that's what we'll go with for now. Whichever way you situate them, Sano and Arcia in the outfield corners has the potential to be a disaster, and it's a little surprising that the Twins would move forward with such an arrangement after seeing first-hand the benefits of a stellar defensive outfield (i.e. Rosario-Buxton-Hicks). Obviously Arcia is a question mark in every regard. Between all of the players listed above (each of whom is 24 or younger, by the way), I'd be fairly confident that the Twins can find a respectable starting trio, but the need for another veteran addition is obvious. Such a player would add experience to a group lacking it, and would lessen the pressure to push an unprepared kid into a starting role if neither Arcia, Buxton, nor Kepler proves ready in camp. The Twins have reportedly shown interest in Rajai Davis, who strikes me as a perfect fit. DESIGNATED HITTER Starter: Byung Ho Park Depth: Kennys Vargas, Oswaldo Arcia, Adam Walker The wild card. Park will undoubtedly have the job out of the gates, and if he stumbles or gets hurt the Twins have some other bats on hand that could be plugged in. (In addition to the names mentioned, Sano could obviously be moved back to DH, although that's not an ideal option.) STARTERS Rotation: Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco Depth: Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Jose Berrios, Pat Dean That starting five isn't necessarily going to wow anyone, but each guy has ability and the quality depth provided by young arms like Duffey, Berrios and May makes the risks associated with that group more tolerable. RELIEVERS Closer: Glen Perkins Setup Men: Kevin Jepsen, Casey Fien, Trevor May Middle Relievers: Michael Tonkin, Ryan O'Rourke Depth: Ryan Pressly, J.R. Graham, Aaron Thompson, Taylor Rogers, Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi Clearly, some work needs to be done here. I've got Tonkin and O'Rourke penciled in as middle relievers, but they're hardly more trustworthy than the unproven group on the next line. The Twins have a blatant need for a good left-hander, and would need to add another impact name to that "Setup" group in order to be able to realistically call the bullpen any kind of strength. Working around these assumptions, here's how I would see the 25-man roster, as currently constituted, playing out on Opening Day: C: Kurt Suzuki 1B: Joe Mauer 2B: Brian Dozier SS: Eduardo Escobar 3B: Trevor Plouffe LF: Miguel Sano CF: Eddie Rosario RF: Oswaldo Arcia DH: Byung Ho Park BN: John Ryan Murphy BN: Danny Santana BN: Eduardo Nunez BN: ? SP: Ervin Santana SP: Phil Hughes SP: Kyle Gibson SP: Tommy Milone SP: Ricky Nolasco RP: Glen Perkins RP: Kevin Jepsen RP: Casey Fien RP: Trevor May RP: Ryan O'Rourke RP: Michael Tonkin RP: ? The question marks certainly need to be addressed, and there are a few other places where Ryan should probably still be seeking to upgrade. What are your thoughts? View full article

It's pretty tough to put a good face on this one. Sure, there is plenty of offseason left to go, but what we've seen at this week's Winter Meetings has been a roundly discouraging display from Terry Ryan and the Twins front office. While their inactivity during this Hot Stove hotbed may not be historically atypical, it certainly comes off much more poorly now than it has in the past. Image courtesy of Brace Hemmelgarn, USA Today It's pretty tough to put a good face on this one. Sure, there is plenty of offseason left to go, but what we've seen at this week's Winter Meetings has been a roundly discouraging display from Terry Ryan and the Twins front office. While their inactivity during this Hot Stove hotbed may not be historically atypical, it certainly comes off much more poorly now than it has in the past. The reaction to this uneventful week in Nashville, from many longtime Twins fans, has been a shrug of the shoulders. "What did you expect?" That is fair, to an extent, but the circumstances and stakes were significantly different this time around than in previous years. The Twins headed to Nashville with a very specific need, by their own admission. Not only did they fail to address it, but by all accounts they showed little interest in even trying to address it in a meaningful way. While top free agent relievers like Darren O'Day, Joakim Soria and Shawn Kelley have come off the board, the Twins stood pat, with reporters concluding that the club's sole focus was on adding a left-handed reliever. That makes some sense. Although the Twins lack any clearly exceptional right-handers in the bullpen, they undeniably have a stronger need for at least one lefty. But La Velle E. Neal III reported that the top southpaws on the market, Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp (who signed with Houston today), were not even on the team's radar. If that wording is to be believed, the Twins didn't even have material interest in pursuing the most impactful options at an area of need when all it would have cost was money. For a club that purportedly has championship aspirations and plentiful payroll flexibility, that's a tough pill to swallow. What makes this passive approach to addressing the bullpen all the more frustrating is that throughout the league, other contenders are stacking up dominant back-end relief units, putting the Twins well behind the pack. Here are the top three relievers, presently, for five likely postseason contenders in the American League following Houston's acquisition of Philly phenom Ken Giles on Thursday: Royals: Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Joakim Soria Astros: Ken Giles, Luke Gregerson, Tony Sipp Yankees: Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, Chasen Shreve Red Sox: Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Carson Smith Tigers: Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Lowe, Justin Wilson With the exception of Shreve (and I'm guessing the Yanks aren't done yet), every name listed there is an established premier relief arm. The Twins don't currently have one of those on their staff outside of Glen Perkins, whose status is somewhat in doubt. They had ample opportunity to target such a player this week but evidently elected not to. And while the possibilities of a major free agent signing or transformative trade remain in play, it's becoming increasingly difficult to believe that Ryan and the Twins are willing to take the steps necessary to bolster their bullpen to a point where it could even hold a candle to the ones listed above. Instead, all we've seen them do this week is weaken their outlook in the relief corps. On Thursday, the Milwaukee Brewers selected reliever Zack Jones from Minnesota in the Rule 5 draft. The 2012 fourth-round pick throws some serious gas and has put together a 2.63 ERA while averaging 12.8 K/9 on the farm, but was perplexingly left unprotected when the Twins made a series of 40-man roster moves last month. Jones has his flaws, to be sure, but his upside is undeniable and his penchant for missing bats has held steady as he has climbed the minor-league ranks. That a Twins team that ranked last in the majors in bullpen K-rate this year, and appears to be relying almost completely on its prospect pipeline to alleviate that issue, would allow a nearly MLB-ready player like Jones to slip away while opting instead to protect a low-ceiling mediocrity like Pat Dean -- who is completely redundant on the 40-man with southpaws like Logan Darnell and Taylor Rogers present -- signals a disheartening miscalculation of priorities. As much as I'd like to believe that this organization is evolving into a committed and dedicated winner with the proper mentality to succeed, weeks like this one really make me skeptical. View full article