Nick Nelson

Vargas was added to the 40-man roster after the 2013 season, so I believe this is his last option year. That's the only question there that is remotely easy to answer. It's really hard to figure out what's going to happen with Vargas. As you mentioned, the only way he's getting into the lineup is injuries. There seemed to be some real frustration with him last year with the demotion to Double-A. I don't know that there's anything he can do in Triple-A that will boost his trade value by a ton. His only skill is hitting and until he proves that he can reliably do that in the majors there's not a lot of incentive to give up anything for him. It'd be a shame to lose him for nothing though. I do think that he's going to eventually figure it out and be a quality MLB slugger. Maybe an opportunity will arise this year and he'll take advantage.

Pitchers and catchers officially reported to Ft. Myers on Sunday, and today is the deadline for position players to show up, so spring training is officially underway in full force. The Twins will have their first full team workout on Saturday and the exhibition schedule gets underway next Wednesday when the club travels across town to face the Red Sox. Here's some of the noteworthy buzz from the first week of preliminary spring action.* Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press writes that reliever J.R. Graham is down more than 30 pounds after finishing the 2015 season at 210. The difference is noticeable, evidently, as Terry Ryan stated that Graham "looked like a different human being." It will be interesting to see how the weight loss affects his performance on the mound. Velocity was the righty's calling card last season -- his 94.7 MPH average fastball speed ranked second only to Alex Meyer, who made two appearances -- but throwing hard isn't everything, as evidenced by his underwhelming final numbers. If Graham trades in a few ticks of velo in exchange for improved command and effectiveness with his secondary offerings, that'd be just fine. He faces long odds to make the big-league bullpen out of spring training though. * Graham isn't the only player who has shown up to camp noticeably lighter. Phil Miller notes that Kennys Vargas has trimmed down by 14 pounds after playing almost 40 games this winter between the Puerto Rican winter league and the Caribbean World Series. Vargas is aiming for a bench spot this spring but has a steep uphill battle ahead of him with another slugging DH type (Oswaldo Arcia) ahead in line and the Twins likely to be targeting flexibility from backups. * Rhett Bollinger writes that the Twins are "all in" on Miguel Sano's move to the outfield, as Paul Molitor has stated that the young slugger will not be playing any third base this year barring injury. There are already 12 pages of discussion on this development in our forum, so I won't dwell on it too much. Suffice to say that if the still-developing Sano played almost no third base in the second half of last season and isn't going to play it at all this year, the writing is on the wall: he's not going to play the position in the major leagues. Of course, that much seemed clear to some of us three years ago. * Two relievers who could play into the Twins' 2016 bullpen plans are toying with split-finger pitches in order to give hitters a different look this year. Berardino reports that righty Nick Burdi is tinkering with a split-finger fastball while Ryan O'Rourke has spent the offseason working on a split-change he learned from Eddie Guardado. In both cases, the thought process makes a lot of sense. Burdi's splitter is said to register in the low 80s, almost 20 MPH slower than his average fastball velocity. This would give hitters a significantly different look compared to the barrage of scalding heaters and sliders. Meanwhile, O'Rourke's new offering is intended to keep right-handed hitters off-balance, a high priority given his historical troubles with them. * Neal Cotts, who spent the final months of last season in Minnesota, signed a minor-league deal with the Astros earlier today. The Twins never showed much interest in him as a free agent and that's probably the right call given that he's not a clear upgrade over anything they currently have in camp. Still, I remain surprised that Terry Ryan hasn't sought out another experienced lefty for the bullpen, and I continue to be curious about Matt Thornton, who is coming off a very solid season in Washington and remains a free agent as we prepare to flip the calendar to March. He's got to land somewhere soon. Click here to view the article

You don't see a lot of pure relievers taken within the first 50 picks of the MLB draft, but the Twins used their second pick in 2014 – 46th overall – to select Nick Burdi. They had big plans for him and his dominating fastball, which had first caught their attention several years earlier. Those big plans still remain in place, even if a rather tumultuous 2015 season has set them back a little bit.Age: 23 (DOB: 1/19/93) 2015 Stats (A+/AA): 63.2 IP, 3.82 ERA, 83/35 K/BB, 1.37 WHIP ETA: 2016 2015 Ranking: 10 National Top 100 Rankings BA: NR | MLB: NR | BP: NR What's To Like Burdi started gaining national attention when he was touching 95 MPH with his fastball as a high schooler, a rare feat. He entered the draft after his senior year, expecting to be selected between the third and fifth rounds, but his well known signing bonus demands scared teams away. He fell all the way to the 24th, where the Twins – developing a heightened interest in big-velo power arms – took a shot on him. As expected, Burdi elected not to sign. He honored his commitment to the University of Louisville, where he played three seasons and turned into one of the nation's top closers. In 2014, his junior year, he notched 18 saves with a 0.49 ERA and ridiculous 65-to-10 K/BB ratio in 37 innings. When the 6-foot-5 right-hander re-entered the draft, the Twins took him again, 22 rounds higher, and this time signed him with a $1.2 million bonus. By the end of his collegiate career, Burdi's fastball was touching triple digits. With his premium velocity and absurd numbers at Louisville, he had the looks of a late-inning weapon and very possibly an eventual MLB closer. Unlike many other college relievers that the Twins drafted highly with designs on converting them to starters, there was never any real thought of changing Burdi's role. He reported straight to Single-A after signing in 2014 and made impressive stops at both Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers, piling up 38 strikeouts in 20 innings. What's Left To Work On Burdi opened the 2015 season as the closer for a stacked Chattanooga team managed by Doug Mientkiewicz. Just two steps away from the majors at the outset of his first full professional season, the 22-year-old righty was very much on the fast track. But it was here that Burdi's control issues, which had mostly gone missing since he walked all four batters he faced in his pro debut, flared up again. In his first outing for the Lookouts, he came on to close out a 3-0 lead in the season-opener and was charged with four runs on four walks and a hit, costing Chattanooga the game. Things didn't get a whole lot smoother after that. Burdi totaled 12 walks in his first seven appearances, then found himself demoted from the closer role and – at the end of June – from Double-A altogether. Frustrated by his continued struggles, the Twins sent Burdi back to Class-A Ft. Myers. For a young pitcher whose extreme confidence would be labeled by some as cocky, it was perhaps a needed dose of humility. Burdi quickly turned things around at Single-A, posting a phenomenal 29-to-3 K/BB ratio in 20 innings, and moved back up six weeks later. He finished with a clean month at Chattanooga, then headed to the Arizona Fall League, where he was nearly perfect in eight scoreless outings. It seems safe to say that whatever momentum was lost during that ugly first half of 2015 has now been regained. What's Next Burdi still hasn't shown that he can keep the walks in check at Double-A. Even during his successful return to the Lookouts bullpen in August, he handed out multiple free passes in four of eight appearances. Until he can sustainably keep it in the zone at that level, it's hard to see him being moved up to the majors or even Triple-A. Most likely he'll start the year back in Chattanooga, and if he can get off to a better start this time around he'll be well positioned for in-season promotions to Rochester and maybe Minnesota. Mike Berardino reported earlier this week that the right-hander is experimenting with adding a split-finger to his fastball/slider mix, which would give hitters a significantly different look. I suspect that a strong belief in Burdi's ability and impending readiness played a large part in Terry Ryan's decision to mostly skip the free agent relief market this offseason. Click here to view the article

It's that time of year. Pitchers and catchers officially reported to spring training on Sunday, and now things will begin ramping up toward the start of exhibition action in 10 days. As usual, Twins Daily will be on-site in Ft. Myers with in-depth coverage of camp throughout the month of March. Over the next couple of weeks, we'll lead up to that coverage by listing and profiling our choices for the Top 20 prospects in the organization.20. Jake Reed - RHP Age: 23 2015 Stats (A+/AA): 59.1 IP, 5.01 ERA, 46/22 K/BB, 1.43 WHIP ETA: 2017 After a career at the University of Oregon that featured big success after converting from starter to closer his senior year, Jake Reed was selected by the Twins in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. After signing, he made 20 appearances between rookie-level Elizabethton and Low-A Cedar Rapids and dominated with his scorching heater, piling up 39 strikeouts while allowing only 11 hits and three walks over 31 innings. The Twins jumped Reed straight to Double-A for his first full season in the system, and the righty struggled immensely with the transition, allowing 28 earned runs on 50 hits in 45 innings before being demoted to Ft. Myers in August. His poor performance as a 22-year-old at Chattanooga raises alarms, but to some extent Reed was thrown right into fire. This will be a crucial year for him. If he bounces back strongly there's a chance he could enter the MLB bullpen picture in August or September. 19. Randy Rosario - LHP Age: 21 2015 Stats (Rookie/A): 61.2 IP, 4.52 ERA, 54/20 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP ETA: 2017 When the Twins made a wave of 40-man roster additions at the end of the 2015 season, the most interesting and unexpected name in the mix may have been Randy Rosario. On the surface, there's nothing in his numbers or progression that would suggest he was at risk of being stolen away if left unprotected. Rosario has made only 48 total appearances in the minors, and at age 21 still hasn't pitched above Low-A. But the lefty, who was signed by the Twins out of the Dominican Republic as a teenager in 2010, has an arm that would appeal to any baseball team. Before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2014, he was touching the upper 90s with his fastball and complementing that with a nasty slider. His lack of in-game experience (he hasn't pitched more than 13 games in a pro season) makes him a major unknown, but Rosario offers a great deal of upside and the Twins recognize that. He'll probably open the season in Ft. Myers but he's in position to rise fast if he can stay healthy. 18. Lewin Diaz - 1B Age: 19 2015 Stats (Rookie): 47 G, .233/.322/.371, 4 HR, 19 R, 20 RBI ETA: 2019 The Twins signed the Dominican Lewin Diaz as a 16-year-old back in July of 2013. With a $1.4 million bonus, he became the organization's biggest amateur international signing since Miguel Sano, whom they had reeled in four years earlier. At the time of the acquisition, MLB.com had Diaz ranked as the 10th-best prospect on the international market, lauding the raw power and advanced swing mechanics for his age. Diaz has spent two seasons playing pro ball here in the States, and his performance gives us little to go on; the numbers have been rather ordinary (.244/.353/.409 between two levels of rookie ball) but he has also been a teenager facing largely older competition and growing into his body. Keep in mind that Max Kepler, who also signed originally as a 16-year-old from a foreign country, hit only one home run total over his first two seasons in the rookie leagues. Patience is required with these kids. Ultimately, power is going to be the defining trait for Diaz, who plays first base and doesn't move especially well. We should get a better idea of his true potential in that department over the next couple of years. 17. Engelb Vielma - SS Age: 21 2015 Stats (A+): 120 G, .270/.323/.306, 1 HR, 49 R, 29 RBI ETA: 2017 We'll start with the bad: he can't hit. OK, that's not exactly true. Engelb Vielma can put the bat on the ball, and his contact-plus-speed combination was enough to result in a respectable .270 average at Ft. Myers last year. But the 21-year-old, listed at a diminutive 5'11" and 150 lbs, doesn't hit the ball with any kind of authority. In 324 minor-league games, he has managed two home runs and 40 total extra-base hits. His career Isolated Power (SLG minus BA) in the minors is .046; for comparison, Ben Revere, one of the least powerful hitters in the majors, had a .078 mark as a minor-leaguer. Vielma's .627 OPS in the Florida State League was well below average. So why does he rank so highly among Twins prospects? Vielma plays premium defense at a premium position. He is the best shortstop in the system – minors or majors – and I don't think it's especially close. When you're excellent with the glove at such a crucial spot in the field, the offensive bar is lowered substantially, thus the reason that players like Andrelton Simmons and Alcides Escobar are so highly valued even though they offer little with the bat. Even accounting for that reality, Vielma doesn't look right now like a guy who will hit enough to justify a starting role in the big leagues, no matter how good he is with the mitt. But he's still young and growing, so it's reasonable to hope for some development on that front. Eduardo Escobar hit four home runs total over his first four seasons in the minors, and last year he was one of MLB's best slugging shortstops. 16. Taylor Rogers - LHP Age: 25 2015 Stats (AAA): 174 IP, 3.98 ERA, 126/44 K/BB, 1.35 WHIP ETA: 2016 Rogers has outperformed expectations since being selected out of the University of Kentucky in the 11th round of the 2012 draft. He experienced some success immediately after joining the pro ranks, and unlike many college pitchers, his numbers haven't fallen off too much as he has climbed the minor-league ladder. Last year, in his first turn at Triple-A, the lefty posted a 3.98 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 – all more or less in line with his career marks. The problem with Rogers, like many southpaws, is his extreme susceptibility against right-handed batters. At Rochester they clubbed him around to the tune of .326/.374/.457, and that doesn't exactly bode well for his chances of excelling against MLB starting lineups stacked with righties. The good news is that the 25-year-old has been utterly lethal against lefty swingers, holding them to OPS figures of .402, .555, .524 and .520 in his four seasons as a pro. He looks to have a good future ahead of him as situational reliever at the very least, and could very well be a member of the Twins bullpen on Opening Day. Click here to view the article

People were also certain that Dozier's power was going to fade after 2014, when he hit 5 HR post-ASG after hitting 23 before. Then he came back and hit 28 jacks in 2015. Do not underestimate this guy's ability to make his own adjustments. He's made a heck of a career out of just that.

Holy cow, how did I forget to write his name down?

With the shift from power hitting toward power pitching that baseball has seen over the past couple decades, it has become quite a bit more rare to see offenses pile up 200 home runs. It was a feat accomplished by 11 teams in 2000 and by only five in 2015. To find the last Twins squad that went deep 200 times, you have to go all the way back to 1964, when Harmon Killebrew, Bob Allison and Tony Oliva were leading the way. For this year's club it is an unlikely yet not unfeasible possibility.I'll start by saying that, obviously, a lot of things would need to go right for the Twins to reach such a number. Almost every starter in the lineup would need to stay mostly healthy and perform. But if we set fairly reasonable – though in some cases slightly optimistic – home run totals for each projected regular, we can get pretty dang close. Observe: Miguel Sano: 35 Not much of a stretch here. He hit 35 during his last full season in the minors (2013) and launched 33 last year in 146 games between Double-A and the majors. Byung Ho Park: 30 He's coming off back-to-back 50-homer campaigns in Korea, and ZiPS projects him to hit 27 as a rookie. We'll say he catches on quickly and manages to surpass that by a little. Brian Dozier: 25 He has hit 51 over the last two seasons and will be 29. Trevor Plouffe: 20 His 150-game average in four years since becoming a full-time big-leaguer is just a tick above 20, so this is exactly what you'd expect if he stays on the field. Eduardo Escobar: 15 This is the first one that feels like a bit of a reach. There's not much in his long-term track record that would suggest this is realistic (he hit only 19 total in the minors) but Escobar went deep 12 times in 127 games last year and his power is clearly trending upward at age 27. Eddie Rosario: 15 As a rookie he homered 13 times in 122 games while also racking up 15 doubles and 13 triples. It's easy to envision Rosario muscling up a bit at age 24 and pushing a few more over the wall. Byron Buxton: 15 Buxton's power is hard to peg, because almost every scout opines that we really haven't seen what he's capable of, and he's just finally starting to fill out his frame a little bit. Last year he totaled nine homers in 118 games between the minors and majors. Joe Mauer: 10 He hit 10 last year, 11 in 2013 and 10 in 2012. Kurt Suzuki: 5 This is pretty consistently where he has been at in recent years. Between these nine starters alone, we already have 170 home runs. That's not accounting for the contributions from backups, fill-ins and call-ups, who figure to produce somewhere around 15-20 and maybe more if someone like Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas or Daniel Palka plays a more prominent role than expected. Admittedly, 200 might be setting the bar too high. But the story is that we can reasonably project two players for 30-plus homers (that has happened twice in the last three decades) and a team total that may very well rank among the top five in franchise history. Here's what it would take to break into that rarified category: 1. 1963: 225 HR 2. 1964: 221 HR 3. 1987: 196 HR 4. 1986: 196 HR 5. 2004: 191 HR 6. 1962: 185 HR 7. 2009: 162 HR 8. 2002: 167 HR 9. 1961: 167 HR 10. 2001: 164 HR Even by conservative estimates, this year's offense should end up being the second-most powerful that the Twins have fielded since '87, and it's not tough to imagine this group surpassing that '04 club fueled by the likes of Corey Koskie, Jacque Jones, Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau. The 2009, 2004 and 2002 teams were all division-winners, and in the case of '09 they did it without a particularly strong pitching staff, so you can certainly make the argument that this is a sensible approach for a team with question marks at the front of the rotation and in the bullpen. How many long balls do you predict the Twins will hit this year? Click here to view the article

For the past five years, this team has been there, lurking. The Indians have won 80 or more games in four of those seasons, almost constantly remaining within reach of first place, but all that this stretch has yielded is one single postseason game – a loss to Tampa Bay in the 2013 wild card.Cleveland has a good young core entrenched, with a potentially (likely?) elite rotation, but their fans are feeling quite similar to those in Minnesota, waiting for an offseason splash that still hasn't come. The Indians are on the brink – they won just two fewer games than the Twins last year – but their only substantial moves this winter have been the signings of Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli, both to one-year deals. It's a lukewarm approach to addressing an offense that scored only 669 runs last year and ranked third-to-last in the American League in OPS+. Much like Terry Ryan, it appears that GM Chris Antonetti is committed to relying mostly on what he already has in place. In some ways, that's more than understandable. Cleveland's starting pitching situation is the envy of the entire AL, with Corey Kluber leading the way for a young and inexpensive slate of talented hurlers who all possess strikeout stuff. The front of the rotation is filthy with the combination of Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar leading the way. Each of those three made 30-plus starts last year and held opponents to an OPS below .680, which is pretty ridiculous. If those guys keep rolling and Trevor Bauer takes the next step at age 25, this is a contender for the best unit in the majors. The bullpen is solid, anchored by underrated closer Cody Allen with support from Zach McAllister, Bryan Shaw, Tommy Hunter and old friend Jeff Manship, among others. Like the Twins, the Indians probably could have benefited from a more potent infusion to the relief corps, but instead have opted mostly for gambles on guys like Craig Stammen and Joba Chamberlain through minor-league deals. All in all, though, the Cleveland pitching staff looks promising. This team's fate will most likely rest on what the offense can do, and that's hard to predict. Davis and Napoli aren't high-impact additions, and the unit will be hurt by missing Michael Brantley for at least the first month following shoulder surgery. In the same way that the Twins are hoping that Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton will be transformative figures in their lineup, the Indians are leaning on 22-year-old shortstop Francisco Lindor, who will be in the MVP race if he repeats his rookie production over a full season. And like the Twins, they Indians are hoping that their formerly premier offensive catcher turned ordinary first baseman can once again emerge as a true asset at the plate. Carlos Santana remains one of the best in the game at controlling the strike zone and drawing walks, but last year he batted just .231 with a .395 slugging percentage. Cleveland has a wide range of possible outcomes for the 2016 season. With their rotation setup, they can't be discounted as legitimate World Series contenders, but with an offense that wasn't good last year and displays no obvious avenues for significant improvement, they may not score enough to finally get over that hump. It's surprising that they haven't landed an upgrade over the light-hitting Giovanny Urshela at third base, but it sounds like the Indians are still in talks with free agent David Freese, who would give them a bit of a nudge in the right direction. ~~~ This wraps up our series looking at Minnesota's divisional opponents and where they stand heading into the 2016 season. To get caught up, make sure you check out: Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals Click here to view the article

Last year, the White Sox went 76-86, finishing fourth in the AL Central with the league's lowest-scoring offense. Their offseason was pretty quiet, featuring the addition of third baseman Todd Frazier but little else of note. With Jeff Samardzija departing as a free agent, it appeared that the Sox were poised for a rebuilding year of sorts, but this week USA Today picked them to come out on top of a tough division with 90 wins.These kinds of predictions are ultimately rather meaningless, and USA Today's 90-win guess isn't worth any more than FanGraphs projecting Chicago to win 81 or Bleacher Report pegging them in last place with 73 wins. But the nod does serve as a reminder that some of us might be sleeping too much on a White Sox club that undeniably has a solid foundation in place, even after a relatively quiet offseason. It all begins with Chris Sale. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball -- a true ace by every definition of the word -- and he was on top of his game last year, even if many of his teammates weren't. For the four straight season, Sale was an All-Star and top six Cy Young finisher. He led the American League in strikeouts (274), K/BB ratio (6.52) and FIP (2.73). Entering his age 27 season, Sale is the primary reason that the White Sox cannot be ignored, but he's hardly the only one. The loss of Samardzija, whose career-worst season was a big part of Chicago's problems, should be more than offset by the continued development of electric young lefty Carlos Rodon and the reliable steadiness of Jose Quintana. A number of arms will compete to join this fearsome trio of southpaws in the rotation, including the recently signed Mat Latos. Of course, offense is the preeminent concern for a club that last year ranked last in the AL in runs, homers and OPS. In that regard, the addition of Frazier through a blockbuster three-way trade back in December looms large. Chicago got a miserable .226/.277/.345 hitting line from the hot corner last year, and now upgrades massively by bringing aboard a two-time All Star who bashed 35 homers with the Reds in 2015. Frazier joins a core at the middle of the lineup powered by the intimidating Jose Abreu, who quietly enjoyed a nice follow-up to his Rookie of the Year campaign, and the Sox also added Brett Lawrie to address their deficiency at second base. Adam Eaton is an underrated leadoff man and 24-year-old Avisail Garcia seems destined to turn a corner and become an impact guy one of these years. Ultimately, however, improvement for the White Sox offense is very highly dependent on players like Garcia making a big leap. Last year Abreu was the only player on the roster to exceed 14 home runs or a .450 slugging percentage, and outside of Frazier the acquisitions to bolster this unit were modest in nature. With one big offseason splash to add power to the lineup, and a lot of hope invested in internal solutions. Chicago's offseason plan looks quite similar to the one we've seen from the Twins, and it puts them on roughly the same plane of expectation heading into the season. ~~~ This is the third installment in our series examining the offseasons and outlooks for AL Central opponents. Check out the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals. Click here to view the article

Drop-off in BABIP (and average as a result). His K% and BB% were more or less the same.

It's possible. Baseball players don't typically start wearing down from age as soon as they turn 30 though, especially those with the natural ability and athleticism of Mauer.

In a recent interview with Brian Murphy of the Pioneer Press, Joe Mauer confirmed a suspicion that many of us have long held, admitting that his play has been materially affected by a concussion suffered in August of 2013. Whether it was that particular jarring blow to the mask on a foul ball, which ended Mauer's season and ultimately led to a position switch away from catcher, or the culmination of many such ringings of the bell, he simply hasn't been the same player since.When Mauer sustained that fateful brain injury, he was batting .324 with a .404 on-base percentage, and was on pace to finish with a career-high 670 plate appearances. The prior season, he had led the league with a .416 OBP, even garnering a few down-ballot MVP votes. It had been an impressive rebound from that dreadful 2011 campaign where "bilateral leg weakness" became a running joke on talk radio as Mauer missed half the season and finished with the worst OPS of his career. Now, the pedestrian performance level in 2011 that once looked like an outlier has become normative for the 32-year-old: 2010: .327/.402/.469 2011: .287/.360/.368 2012: .319/.416/.446 2013: .324/.404/.476 2014: .277/.361/.371 2015: .265/.338/.380 While the underlying issues at that point were more structural, relating to weakness or soreness in the lower half of his body that eventually improved, the basis for his drop-off over the past two years is much more complicated and murky. Mauer told the Pioneer Press that he occasionally battled blurred vision and light sensitivity in 2014 and 2015, helping explain an OPS in those two seasons that is 120 points below his career benchmark. Those are fairly typical after-effects for a bad concussion, and after living through it with Justin Morneau, Twins fans are all too aware that such symptoms can linger on indefinitely. For Mauer, it's not hard to see how even a slight diminishment of the senses could be a major drain on his production. Baseball is a game of split-second reactions by nature, and even more so for Mauer, who has never been a "guess hitter" by any stretch of the imagination. His numerous batting titles were attributable in large part to his uncanny ability to decide late on a borderline two-strike pitch, reach out and flick it the other way for a single. It has been evident enough from watching him over the past two years that his perceptiveness has dulled. Mauer whiffs on pitches that he used to waste with a foul. His ground ball rates have climbed as the consistency of solid sweetspot contact has dropped. He has always relied on taking the first pitch or two of an at-bat because of his comfort zone when behind in the count, but now that's turning into a danger zone. It's lethal for a hitter of his profile. The good news in all of this is that brain injuries, like all injuries, tend to heal progressively over time, even if the process is more gradual and ambiguous than we'd like. The further Mauer moves away from his last concussion, the sharper he is likely to be, and the Twins are wisely protecting him from future reoccurrences by ruling out any notion of a return to catcher. For his part, Mauer says he has been doing specific exercises to strengthen his eyes, and will try wearing sunglasses to counteract the strain of bright day games. Ideally the collective effects of these efforts, along with his last head trauma incident shrinking in the rear view mirror, will help Mauer climb back somewhere close to the level he was at prior to August 2013. With all of the talk about Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Byung Ho Park and others, Mauer remains a hugely critical piece in the lineup, capable of single-handedly shifting the offense into another gear if he's getting on base constantly in front of the big boppers. Click here to view the article

I can buy this when considering his pure stuff, but Chargois has only 64 innings of total experience in the minors and had control issues in Double-A last year. He also didn't pitch in the AFL unlike some others on this list. I'm just not sure throwing him directly to the sharks makes sense, especially when there are some other guys that ought to be evaluated.

The Twins entered the offseason targeting relief help as a top priority, to Terry Ryan's own acknowledgement. He rightfully viewed the bullpen as a weakness needing to be addressed, especially in light of the way contenders across the league have been upgrading. Well, here's what they have done:They let Blaine Boyer, Brian Duensing and Neal Cotts – who provided 25 percent of the team's total relief innings last year – walk as free agents, and replaced them with... nobody. Well, that's not entirely accurate. They signed several relievers to minor-league contracts. But here in the middle of February we still have not seen the Twins add one single pitcher on a major-league contract. Even for a team that routinely eschews free agency and opts for internal development, that is rare. It looks as though Minnesota will build around a back-end bullpen core of Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Casey Fien and Trevor May. In a seven-man unit, that leaves three remaining spots, with plenty of names competing to earn a job. Today we'll run through the various candidates to round out the relief corps, with the front-runners at the top of the list. Given the turnover that we're likely to see in the bullpen throughout this season, it's a good idea to familiarize yourself with all of these guys. Why Fernando Abad Will Win A Job I remain convinced that Terry Ryan will end up signing one of these free agent lefty relievers before the season gets underway, but as things stand, Abad is the only southpaw in the mix for the Twins with any kind of substantial experience in a big-league bullpen. He has 258 career appearances, and over the past three seasons with Oakland and Washington, the 30-year-old has put up a 2.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while averaging 8.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Those are all very solid numbers. His 2015 was not good, however, as he was plagued by the long ball and saw his velocity drop across the board. The A's went 16-46 in his appearances, suggesting that they didn't view him as a high-leverage arm to be deployed with a lead. Another particularly troubling aspect of Abad is that he has never been all that good against left-handed hitters, who have a .254/.304/.411 career line against him (by contrast, Duensing has a .238/.289/.325 career line against LH hitters). So while he may end up as the top lefty in the pen, Abad could hardly be viewed as a situational specialist. Why Michael Tonkin Will Win A Job He's out of options. The time has come for the Twins to finally give Tonkin a legitimate look in the majors, because if they don't, someone else is going to. Tonkin has been a top relief prospect in the system for many years, racking up tons of strikeouts in the minors with a power fastball that registers in the mid-90s. His numbers during a few short stints in the majors haven't been all that shabby, but for whatever reason, the Twins have never committed to letting him ride. Last year, they were busy prioritizing veteran journeymen like Blaine Boyer and Tim Stauffer. It was odd. One thing that will work in Tonkin's favor this time around is that there's no Rule 5 pick sitting at the end of the bullpen, as was the case with J.R. Graham last year. This means that even if the Twins don't feel confident enough in Tonkin to routinely use him in close games, they can hide him a little better while trying to help him polish his secondary pitches. Why Ricky Nolasco Will Win A Job I'm not sure the veteran Nolasco would consider this to be "winning" anything, but if he loses out in the rotation competition, where he appears to be at a distinct disadvantage, he will almost certainly open the season as a swing man in the bullpen. The Twins can't send him to the minors and still owe him too much money to simply cut him. Nolasco been a starter almost exclusively in his career, but the transition to long relief shouldn't be all that challenging. If he performs well, he can serve as a solid depth option when the Twins find themselves needing reinforcements in the rotation. Why Ryan O'Rourke Will Win A Job When you look at his overall numbers, O'Rourke doesn't stand out much as a prospect. A former 13th-round pick, he has a 4.15 career ERA in the minors and didn't debut in the majors until age 27. When you drill a little deeper, though, you find that throughout his pro career, O'Rourke has been flat-out lethal against left-handed hitters. In six minor-league seasons, he has struck out 40 percent that he has faced while often bordering on unhittable. Last year with the Twins, though his final numbers weren't very good, he still held lefty swingers to a .171 average with 19 strikeouts in 49 plate appearances. He needs to be used in a very specific way in order to be effective, but as a pure match-up southpaw, there's no better option in this group. Given Abad's weakness in that department, O'Rourke feels like a necessity. But can they find room for him? Why Ryan Pressly Will Win A Job Paul Molitor was apparently quite impressed with Pressly last year before the righty went down with a lat strain that cost him most of the season. "I don’t think people realize how well (Pressly) was throwing the ball before he got hurt last year, and now he’s healthy," the manager told Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press in January. Indeed, Pressly was averaging a career-high 94.2 MPH with his heater and flashing a sharp slider, although neither of those things manifested in a particularly impressive K/BB ratio. Pressly has been around the organization for three years now since being selected as a Rule 5 pick and it's time to take a good long look at him. However, if it comes down to a battle between him and Tonkin, I would guess that Pressly will open in Triple-A. Why Brandon Kintzler Will Win A Job Like Abad, Kintzler offers something that is in short supply among this group: experience. He has made 172 appearances for the Brewers over the past six years, and was at one point a pretty decent setup man. He's coming off injuries, though, and would need to be added to the 40-man roster. If he does well in Ft. Myers, I could see the final spot coming down to him and O'Rourke or another lefty. At that point it just depends on how comfortable Molitor is without a designated lefty suppressor in the late innings. (Though, to his credit, Kintzler has actually done quite well in that regard.) Why J.R. Graham Will Win A Job Injuries look to be Graham's only path to the roster. He hung around in the Twins bullpen for the entirety of last season thanks to his status as a Rule 5 draftee, but he was never all that impressive and now the Twins have no obligation to carry him. His stand-out velocity and ongoing adaptation to relieving make him interesting. It sounds like he really committed himself to getting fit during the offseason, shedding 30-plus pounds and thinning down to the point where one person who saw him at TwinsFest described him to me as looking "almost emaciated." Will Graham's transformed physique help him cut down on the amount of hard contact opponents are able to generate? We'll see, but regardless of how he performs in camp it's difficult to envision him surpassing both Tonkin and Pressly. Why Taylor Rogers Will Win A Job Rogers has come up through the minors as a starter, but he's more intriguing as a left-handed relief option thanks to his demolition of same-sided hitters. Last year in Triple-A, Rogers held lefties to a .177/.209/.193 line. The prior in Double-A it was .217/.268/.287. He hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors and hasn't really had a chance to adjust to a relief role, but he looks very equipped to fill a specific need for the Twins. He is also already on the 40-man roster after being added in November. Why Alex Meyer Will Win A Job Meyer's 2015 season was undeniably a huge mess, but it's important to remember that one year ago he was being ranked as a Top 30 prospect in all of baseball by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The premium velocity and filthy stuff that earned him such acclaim remain intact, so Meyer ought to be viewed as a major wild-card in the bullpen if and when he can straighten out his mechanics. The consistent struggles from start to finish last year suggest that he's not likely to have everything figured out in time for Opening Day, but Meyer should not be discounted as a potential impact call-up somewhere along the line in 2016. Why Nick Burdi Will Win A Job He's the best pure relief prospect in the system, capable of touching triple digits with his overpowering fastball that complements a nasty slider. But like Meyer, Burdi endured a tumultuous 2015 season. He opened the campaign as Chattanooga's closer, but control problems led to his being demoted back to Single-A about halfway through. Burdi did finish on a strong note, pitching well in the final month after returning to Double-A and then turning in a lights-out performance in the Arizona Fall League. Still, it's hard to see the Twins pushing him to the majors before he has demonstrably improved his command. Why Mike Strong Will Win A Job Given the depth of their system, space on the 40-man roster is at a premium for the Twins. In order to claim Strong off waivers from the Marlins, they risked losing another left-handed pitcher that they value in Logan Darnell. That alone says something for what they think of Strong. He has sometimes shown shaky control in the minors and has no meaningful experience above Double-A, but he does have this going for him: strikeouts. He has averaged 9.6 K/9 in the minors, differentiating him from the field somewhat in an area that ought to be a main focus. Others In The Mix: Mason Melotakis, Pat Dean, J.T. Chargois, Jake Reed, Aaron Thompson, Dan Runzler, Buddy Boshers Everybody in that group has better than a snowball's chance if he comes into camp and really opens some eyes, which speaks to the breadth of this competition. Melotakis, Chargois and Dean carry a slight edge since they're on the 40-man and wouldn't require a move, but they seem like long shots. Going over this list of 19 names, and considering them a little more deeply, it becomes easier to understand why the front office was so passive in its approach to the market. They're handcuffed to some extent with Tonkin and Nolasco, and once you account for the other four locks, that limits flexibility to evaluate a number of deserving candidates. This might turn out to be a rather experimental year for the Minnesota bullpen. That's probably not good news in the short term, but could pay off in 2017 and beyond. Click here to view the article

The Twins have a firmly established trio of starters in place that they will build around. Barring injuries, you can bet that Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson will all be in the rotation when Minnesota heads to Baltimore to open the season in April. Behind them, things are unsettled.After spending every recent offseason exhaustively searching all avenues for starting pitching help, Terry Ryan and the Twins have refreshingly been able to abstain this winter. Even with Mike Pelfrey departing and no significant additions coming aboard, there will be plenty of quality competition in-house for the final two spots. In 2015, the Twins had nine different players make starts, and that was their lowest total in four years. Chances are, every pitcher listed below will get his chance at some point this year, so the composition of the group that goes north only matters so much. In some ways, as we'll discuss, the club is actually incentivized not to carry their best talent from the very start of the regular season. By all accounts, though, the decision-makers are keeping an open mind about those available rotation spots, which should lead to some heated competition in March. This is undoubtedly by design. Let's take a look at the contenders that will be making their cases. Why Tommy Milone Will Win A Job With his low velocity and middling strikeout rates, Milone doesn't get a ton of love from the sabermetric crowd, but he has been a reliably solid back-of-the-rotation starter and there is value in that. The Twins settled with Milone on a $4.5 million salary for this season, and that's not the kind of money you pay for a reliever who has almost no experience pitching out of the bullpen. Be assured, the team is heading into camp with designs on him as a starter, just as they did last spring when the job was his to lose in a competition that included Trevor May, Alex Meyer and Mike Pelfrey. That is, no small part, because Milone is the lone left-hander in this entire picture. It's not an overriding factor, and if he looks flat-out crummy in camp or is blatantly surpassed by others, I could see Milone heading to the bullpen. But he's as close to a lock as you'll find on this list. Why Tyler Duffey Will Win A Job He earned it. With the way Duffey responded after being called up to the majors last August, the Twins will be hard-pressed not to put him in the rotation. Following a rough outing in a brutal match-up at Toronto for his MLB debut, Duffey went 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his final nine starts, and Minnesota went 8-1 in those games. During his introduction to the highest level, the right-hander checked all the boxes. He attacked the strike zone. He pitched deep into games. He missed bats and kept the ball in the park. Duffey deployed his spectacular curveball with deadly effectiveness and out-pitched all of his peers in the rotation. There are question marks attached to the 25-year-old hurler, however. Ultimately, 10 starts is still a small sample size and Duffey still has only 17 total starts at Triple-A. As good as he was in the minors last year, his long-term track record isn't quite as impressive, especially when it comes to strikeouts. And there is this: Duffey is essentially a two-pitch guy. He threw his fastball or curve 98 percent of the time as a rookie with the Twins. Some can make that work as a starter, but most don't. As Twins Daily community member gopherman23 recently pointed out, the righty's 39.8 percent usage rate with the hook was the highest in the majors since 2002. Could the Twins send Duffey back to the minors to work on polishing a third pitch? Why Ricky Nolasco Will Win A Job The obvious (and perhaps unsatisfactory) answer is that he's being paid $12 million this year and next. Twins officials have made it pretty clear that decisions regarding Nolasco won't be dictated by the money he's owed, but you can bet he will be given every chance to earn it. And he deserves that much. I realize that damn near every Twins fan is incredibly down on the veteran righty, understandably so, but the truth is that he has never had a sustained opportunity to show what he can do here while fully healthy. Both of his seasons in Minnesota have been marred by injury. Last year in limited duty he put up a 3.51 FIP and struck out 35 batters in 37 innings, so there is something to build on there. Compared to others on this list, Nolasco simply has no case based on his accomplishments with this team. He has an uphill battle in that regard, but I do think that if he's sharp in spring training the Twins will be inclined to jump him ahead in line because he can't be sent to the minors and he offers little in the bullpen other than long relief. And, yeah, they're paying him quite a bit of money to start games. Why Jose Berrios Will Win A Job He may very well be the most talented pitcher on this list, and the only one with true "ace" potential. Berrios obliterated the highest levels of the minors last year and was in position for a late-season call-up, though the Twins ultimately decided to pass. There is almost zero question that he is ready to pitch in the majors. His supremacy over Triple-A hitters in July and August left little doubt. But by starting him back in Rochester and waiting even a few weeks to call him up, the Twins stand to push back his free agency clock and gain a full extra year of team control down the line. Given that Berrios will be 27 – the midst of his theoretical prime – in six years, that extra season could be extremely valuable. Of course, this all becomes somewhat moot if the Twins lock him up with a contract extension at some point. And while there is a reasonable and logical argument against bringing him north regardless of how he performs, if he truly transcends the competition it's going to be a hard sell sending him back to a level that he has already mastered. Berrios, and the decisions surrounding him, will easily be among the most compelling storylines to follow this spring. Why Trevor May Will Win A Job He is as qualified as anybody. May was a good prospect as a starting pitcher rising through the minors and broke through last year with a strong first-half performance in the Twins rotation before circumstances forced him to the bullpen. Circumstances, unfortunately, continue to work against the young right-hander. His performance after shifting to relief was so impressive that it evidently convinced the Twins to bypass the relief market this offseason while viewing May as one of their core pieces at the back end of the bullpen. That means May's chances of winning a starting job, or even being a legit contender for one, are low. It would likely take injuries to more than one other guy on this list for the Twins to rearrange their plans so dramatically. They simply need May in the late innings. Others In The Mix: Taylor Rogers, Pat Dean, Alex Meyer With the five pitchers above vying for two spots, there isn't much of an opening for these fringe outsiders. Rogers and Dean were both added to the 40-man roster after impressive campaigns at Rochester last year, and they gain some extra points for being lefties. Meyer was ranked as one of the organization's best pitching prospects as recently as a year ago, but there have always been serious questions about his ability to remain a starter and his trainwreck 2015 season may have been the final straw pushing him to a reliever designation. All in all, though, the Twins have more quality starting pitching depth in place than they've had in at least half a decade. They really need one or two guys to step up and take over at the front of the rotation, but it's hugely refreshing to see such a wide array of hurlers in the mix with no Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia types clogging things up. More help is on the way, too, in the form of rising young arms like Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay. Click here to view the article