Nick Nelson

I see a lot of people grumbling about the idea of Milone and (especially) Nolasco in the rotation over Duffey and Berrios to start the year. I think it's important to keep in mind that nothing on Opening Day is permanent. Obviously, much of this will be dictated in spring training, for better or worse. If Nolasco looks like crap I don't think they're going to just throw him into the rotation anyway. However, I do believe he will have a leg up. The Twins are paying him a lot of money to start games and he hasn't really had an extended chance to do so when healthy over the last two years. If they're going to take a drastic step like sending Nolasco to the bullpen or (even more so) a straight-up release, I think they want to be sure he can't help them as a starter. There's not a lot of risk in giving him a month's worth of starts out of the gates, especially when you look at the service time benefits of giving Berrios at least a few weeks at Triple-A. As far as Milone goes, again, that's going to play out in ST but I think the Twins like having a lefty in the rotation, he has an experience edge over Duffey/Berrios, and I'm not sure he does much for you as a reliever. It's important to keep in mind that last year was something of an outlier for the Twins in terms of rotation stability. Outside of Nolasco, they didn't really have anyone get seriously hurt or melt down. I wouldn't expect the same thing this year. Depth is important. To me, starting the year with Nolasco and Milone in the rotation is the best way to preserve that depth and keep quality arms at the ready.

Terry Ryan came away from last week's Winter Meetings without any significant roster additions, but the general manager made it clear that progress was made on various fronts, and that he expects to complete at least one move within the coming weeks. To get an idea of what he and the front office need to get done in the remaining two months of the offseason, let's take a look at how a 2016 club might come together if the present configuration were to go unchanged. Where can the Twins reasonably rely on internal options to fill holes? Where do they absolutely need outside help?CATCHER Starter: Kurt Suzuki Backup: John Ryan Murphy Depth: John Hicks, Stuart Turner, Mitch Garver It looks like this is the group they'll head into the season with. This might not be the emphatic upgrade fans were hoping for after the catcher position emerged as a major problem spot in 2015, but the Twins are banking on Suzuki returning closer to his (albeit mediocre) career norm while the 24-year-old Murphy builds on his impressive .277/.327/.406 line from this year with the Yankees. INFIELD 1B: Joe Mauer 2B: Brian Dozier SS: Eduardo Escobar 3B: Trevor Plouffe Backups: Eduardo Nunez and Danny Santana Depth: Jorge Polanco, James Beresford Ryan keeps insisting that he's not shopping Plouffe, and there haven't been many rumors popping up surrounding the third baseman's market, so at this point we're operating under the assumption that he's going to be here. Nunez and Santana are actually a pretty nice backup duo, with each offering the versatility to play multiple infield and outfield positions while bringing some speed and offensive upside. Though Plouffe's status remains up in the air, Minnesota certainly doesn't need to make any further additions in the infield. OUTFIELD LF: Miguel Sano CF: Eddie Rosario RF: Oswaldo Arcia Backups: ? Depth: Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Adam Walker, Daniel Palka As I see it, the plan is for Buxton to start in Triple-A, but the Twins will give him a chance to win the center field job with a convincing demonstration in spring training. Ryan has said that he views Sano as a better fit in right field, but Molitor prefers him in left and it's his call so that's what we'll go with for now. Whichever way you situate them, Sano and Arcia in the outfield corners has the potential to be a disaster, and it's a little surprising that the Twins would move forward with such an arrangement after seeing first-hand the benefits of a stellar defensive outfield (i.e. Rosario-Buxton-Hicks). Obviously Arcia is a question mark in every regard. Between all of the players listed above (each of whom is 24 or younger, by the way), I'd be fairly confident that the Twins can find a respectable starting trio, but the need for another veteran addition is obvious. Such a player would add experience to a group lacking it, and would lessen the pressure to push an unprepared kid into a starting role if neither Arcia, Buxton, nor Kepler proves ready in camp. The Twins have reportedly shown interest in Rajai Davis, who strikes me as a perfect fit. DESIGNATED HITTER Starter: Byung Ho Park Depth: Kennys Vargas, Oswaldo Arcia, Adam Walker The wild card. Park will undoubtedly have the job out of the gates, and if he stumbles or gets hurt the Twins have some other bats on hand that could be plugged in. (In addition to the names mentioned, Sano could obviously be moved back to DH, although that's not an ideal option.) STARTERS Rotation: Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco Depth: Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Jose Berrios, Pat Dean That starting five isn't necessarily going to wow anyone, but each guy has ability and the quality depth provided by young arms like Duffey, Berrios and May makes the risks associated with that group more tolerable. RELIEVERS Closer: Glen Perkins Setup Men: Kevin Jepsen, Casey Fien, Trevor May Middle Relievers: Michael Tonkin, Ryan O'Rourke Depth: Ryan Pressly, J.R. Graham, Aaron Thompson, Taylor Rogers, Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi Clearly, some work needs to be done here. I've got Tonkin and O'Rourke penciled in as middle relievers, but they're hardly more trustworthy than the unproven group on the next line. The Twins have a blatant need for a good left-hander, and would need to add another impact name to that "Setup" group in order to be able to realistically call the bullpen any kind of strength. Working around these assumptions, here's how I would see the 25-man roster, as currently constituted, playing out on Opening Day: C: Kurt Suzuki 1B: Joe Mauer 2B: Brian Dozier SS: Eduardo Escobar 3B: Trevor Plouffe LF: Miguel Sano CF: Eddie Rosario RF: Oswaldo Arcia DH: Byung Ho Park BN: John Ryan Murphy BN: Danny Santana BN: Eduardo Nunez BN: ? SP: Ervin Santana SP: Phil Hughes SP: Kyle Gibson SP: Tommy Milone SP: Ricky Nolasco RP: Glen Perkins RP: Kevin Jepsen RP: Casey Fien RP: Trevor May RP: Ryan O'Rourke RP: Michael Tonkin RP: ? The question marks certainly need to be addressed, and there are a few other places where Ryan should probably still be seeking to upgrade. What are your thoughts? Click here to view the article

It's pretty tough to put a good face on this one. Sure, there is plenty of offseason left to go, but what we've seen at this week's Winter Meetings has been a roundly discouraging display from Terry Ryan and the Twins front office. While their inactivity during this Hot Stove hotbed may not be historically atypical, it certainly comes off much more poorly now than it has in the past.The reaction to this uneventful week in Nashville, from many longtime Twins fans, has been a shrug of the shoulders. "What did you expect?" That is fair, to an extent, but the circumstances and stakes were significantly different this time around than in previous years. The Twins headed to Nashville with a very specific need, by their own admission. Not only did they fail to address it, but by all accounts they showed little interest in even trying to address it in a meaningful way. While top free agent relievers like Darren O'Day, Joakim Soria and Shawn Kelley have come off the board, the Twins stood pat, with reporters concluding that the club's sole focus was on adding a left-handed reliever. That makes some sense. Although the Twins lack any clearly exceptional right-handers in the bullpen, they undeniably have a stronger need for at least one lefty. But La Velle E. Neal III reported that the top southpaws on the market, Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp (who signed with Houston today), were not even on the team's radar. If that wording is to be believed, the Twins didn't even have material interest in pursuing the most impactful options at an area of need when all it would have cost was money. For a club that purportedly has championship aspirations and plentiful payroll flexibility, that's a tough pill to swallow. What makes this passive approach to addressing the bullpen all the more frustrating is that throughout the league, other contenders are stacking up dominant back-end relief units, putting the Twins well behind the pack. Here are the top three relievers, presently, for five likely postseason contenders in the American League following Houston's acquisition of Philly phenom Ken Giles on Thursday: Royals: Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Joakim Soria Astros: Ken Giles, Luke Gregerson, Tony Sipp Yankees: Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, Chasen Shreve Red Sox: Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Carson Smith Tigers: Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Lowe, Justin Wilson With the exception of Shreve (and I'm guessing the Yanks aren't done yet), every name listed there is an established premier relief arm. The Twins don't currently have one of those on their staff outside of Glen Perkins, whose status is somewhat in doubt. They had ample opportunity to target such a player this week but evidently elected not to. And while the possibilities of a major free agent signing or transformative trade remain in play, it's becoming increasingly difficult to believe that Ryan and the Twins are willing to take the steps necessary to bolster their bullpen to a point where it could even hold a candle to the ones listed above. Instead, all we've seen them do this week is weaken their outlook in the relief corps. On Thursday, the Milwaukee Brewers selected reliever Zack Jones from Minnesota in the Rule 5 draft. The 2012 fourth-round pick throws some serious gas and has put together a 2.63 ERA while averaging 12.8 K/9 on the farm, but was perplexingly left unprotected when the Twins made a series of 40-man roster moves last month. Jones has his flaws, to be sure, but his upside is undeniable and his penchant for missing bats has held steady as he has climbed the minor-league ranks. That a Twins team that ranked last in the majors in bullpen K-rate this year, and appears to be relying almost completely on its prospect pipeline to alleviate that issue, would allow a nearly MLB-ready player like Jones to slip away while opting instead to protect a low-ceiling mediocrity like Pat Dean -- who is completely redundant on the 40-man with southpaws like Logan Darnell and Taylor Rogers present -- signals a disheartening miscalculation of priorities. As much as I'd like to believe that this organization is evolving into a committed and dedicated winner with the proper mentality to succeed, weeks like this one really make me skeptical. Click here to view the article

Yeah, I was looking back at that one a little skeptically. Our rationale at the time was that he's the only real "closer" with a record of durability on the market and traditionally saves have been overvalued, but I think we're seeing that change right now to some extent, with the perceived value of closers and really good relievers (rightfully) started to merge. Something in the O'Day/Soria range is probably more realistic, though it wouldn't surprise me to see him get a four-year deal considering his age. I dunno, it's not like they were star-caliber pitchers but when you find guys on minor-league deals who give you seasons like Burton's 2012 or Fien's 2013 at a minimal cost, that's pretty damn good.

He was mentioned!

The game of baseball is undergoing a transformation. The role of the bullpen has been gradually gaining prominence for many years (to the chagrin of old-schoolers like Bert Blyleven), but right now we're really seeing these units become more specialized and emphasized. The way the Royals have ridden their dominating relievers to two American League pennants and a World Series win has not gone unnoticed by the 29 other teams.A couple weeks ago I suggested that the best path for the Twins to become a true World Series contender in 2016 was to focus on building an elite bullpen, one that could negate other weaknesses to a degree. We have since seen some of MLB's heaviest hitters follow that same blueprint. The Dodgers reportedly have a trade in the works for Aroldis Chapman to complement Kenley Jensen. The Royals signed Joakim Soria to keep their pen infused with power and negate the loss of Greg Holland. The Red Sox traded a ransom to acquire Craig Kimbrel a month ago despite already having a pretty damn good closer in Koji Uehara, then picked up lights-out setup man Carson Smith from Seattle on Monday. With the game shifting at a fundamental level, the market is responding accordingly. In the past few days alone, we have seen Soria and Baltimore's Darren O'Day sign huge long-term deals at rates that would have been unthinkable for non-closers in the not-so-distant past. Ryan Madson, who had missed three straight seasons before putting together a good 2015 as a sixth/seventh inning guy for Kansas City, amazingly got a three-year, $22 million deal from the Athletics. Terry Ryan has been clear that bolstering the bullpen is his top priority at the Winter Meetings, but will he pay to play? The Twins haven't traditionally made a habit of aggressively attacking the free agent relief market in the past, typically opting for one-year contracts and low-risk fliers. To their credit, they have struck gold on a few occasions through this method with players like Jared Burton and Casey Fien, but that mentality isn't the avenue to a true top-tier relief corps. How much would it cost to add one of the remaining top free agents? Well, our contract projections from the Offseason Handbook have proven fairly accurate thus far, so here's a look at where we pegged some of the other big-name players: Name | Handbook Estimate | Actual Contract Darren O'Day, RH | 3 years, $27M | 4 years, $31M Joakim Soria, RH | 3 years, $27M | 3 years, $25M Mark Lowe, RH | 2 years, $10M | 2 years, $11M Oliver Perez, LH | 2 years, $7M | 2 years, $7M Tyler Clippard, RH | 4 years, $44M | ? Antonio Bastardo, LH | 3 years, $21M | ? Tony Sipp, LH | 3 years, $18M | ? Shawn Kelley, RH | 3 years, $15M | ? Matt Albers, RH | 2 years, $8M | ? Matt Thornton, LH | 1 year, $4M | ? Neal Cotts, LH | 1 year, $3M | ? My hope is that the Twins will make a serious play for someone like Kelley or Tony Sipp, both of whom they have been connected to. My fear is that they'll end up settling for someone like Matt Thornton or Neal Cotts, who are respectable veteran arms but nothing more than that. A big part of the reluctance to move on one of those higher-profile names might be the length of the required commitment; some of those three- and four-year terms are undoubtedly cringeworthy for Ryan given that he has numerous homegrown arms with big potential rising in the system. But the Twins have a lot of question marks across the roster and the bullpen is no exception. Glen Perkins is coming off a brutal finish, Kevin Jepsen has been a fairly ordinary reliever for the majority of his career, Trevor May might end up as a starter, and there are currently no established lefty arms to speak of. Will the Twins, who have undeniably turned a new leaf in their approach over the last few offseasons, take the kind of bold steps necessary to land one of the top remaining free agent relievers, or an impact player via trade? Click here to view the article

I don't think that's what I said, is it? My point was that I highly doubt they'll have anything close to a decided upon roster or lineup on March 6th. But it will be interesting to see what TR and Co. can accomplish between now and then to trim down some of the wide-reaching uncertainty.

Major League Baseball's annual Winter Meetings get underway this week in Nashville, and the Twins have sent a contingent that includes Paul Molitor, Terry Ryan, Rob Antony, Mike Radcliff, and basically every other recognizable name from the front office. I'd like to say that the club could use this opportunity to eliminate some question marks and solidify the state of the roster, but at this point the Twins seem inevitably destined to head into the 2016 season with a group that is, while filled with exciting potential, high on risk and low on certainty.When your big early splash in the offseason is signing an international free agent with no MLB experience and committing to him as designated hitter, you're inherently putting yourself in a precarious position. Byung Ho Park's raw power is undeniable, but the same was true for Kennys Vargas, who entered the 2014 season as the hopeful long-term DH solution. But Park himself isn't the only source of ambiguity, of course. His arrival creates a tricky logjam for the Twins with Miguel Sano's natural position occupied by Trevor Plouffe, who Ryan continues to insist isn't going anywhere. That insistence doesn't mean a lot right now – the GM can't very well openly admit to shopping Plouffe, both because it would diminish leverage and would leave the incumbent third baseman in an unfair spot – but whether or not the Twins make a trade, they're going to face some dangerous risks. Moving the 260-pound Sano to the outfield, where he's never played before, has the potential to be a disaster, and that cannot be ignored. He might be fast for his size, but Sano does not have the speed to cover a ton of ground and that's without accounting for the lack of instincts and reactions built up from experience. The two biggest decision-makers in the organization don't even seem to have agreement upon which outfield corner Sano would be best suited for, as Phil Miller laid out in his article for the Star Tribune last week. "Right now, we are very comfortable … moving Sano to right," said Ryan. "I would say right now, left field is what I would be leaning toward," said Molitor. OK then. Either way, putting Sano at a position where he has to guide his large body around vast and unfamiliar territory while trying not to collide with walls and fellow fielders increases his risk for injury. It also decreases Minnesota's chances of boasting an exceptional outfield defense, which ought to be a focal concern considering the high-contact nature of the pitching staff, and the major role that particular strength played in the success of both the Royals and Mets this year. Trading Ploufe and moving Sano to third base is much less likely to have a significantly negative impact on the team's defense, but would leave the Twins dangerously thin on established right-handed bats to complement Sano at the heart of the order. Brian Dozier hit 28 home runs this year but his second-half tailspin casts some doubt on his outlook. Losing Plouffe on top of Torii Hunter and Aaron Hicks (who has an .808 career OPS from the right side) would leave a whole lot of pressure on Park to produce – perhaps more so than we should realistically expect. Judd Zulgad of 1500 ESPN wrote an interesting column recently suggesting that trading Plouffe would be a mistake and that Park ought to be considered a prospect until he proves otherwise. I think we're already past that point, for all intents and purposes, but it's tough to argue with the core thought process there. This situation is the most prominent and visible point of uncertainty on the current projected roster, but it's far from the only one. Is Eddie Rosario going to play center field or a corner spot? That will be dictated by another unknown: Byron Buxton's readiness to be a major-leaguer. Who will be the fourth outfielder, with Shane Robinson gone and no other internal options fitting the bill especially well? Can the Twins find room in that oufield for Oswaldo Arcia? Where does Danny Santana fit? Both are out of options. Who will be the go-to left-hander in the bullpen? Is Trevor May a starter or reliever? What the heck are they going to do about Ricky Nolasco? The number of moving parts and unanswered questions at play leaves the Twins in an unstable state entering the heart of the offseason. We'll see how creative Ryan can get in trying to reduce his redundancies and create some clarity, but for the most part, we'll have to come to terms with the reality that this team is going to have an awful lot of things to sort out in March. Click here to view the article

We learned on Wednesday night that the Twins had elected to tender contracts to all six of their arbitration eligible players. Several members of that group were a given, namely: Eduardo Escobar, Tommy Milone, Trevor Plouffe and Kevin Jepsen. Eduardo Nunez was a little iffy but he did fine in his limited role last year and he'll probably cost the least of the bunch. The most noteworthy decision, in my mind, was tendering Casey Fien.The bullpen has been a primary area of interest for me lately, one that I've written about a few times recently since I view that unit as one where the Twins can make very meaningful and impactful improvements during the offseason. Is bringing Fien back a step in the right direction? He turned 32 last month and his strikeout rate has declined in each of the past two seasons. This year, his 5.8 K/9 rate ranked 125th out of 137 qualified relievers. For a team that ought to have a clear focus on building a more powerful bullpen after finishing 2015 as the only team in the majors with a K/9 rate below 7.0 from its relief corps, bringing back a setup man who has struggled to miss bats like Fien is, on the surface, questionable at best. In fairness, however, there are a few other factors to be taken into account. For one thing, Fien's drop in strikeouts did not coincide with a dip in velocity, reducing concerns that his arm is running out of gas. Indeed, the heightened contact rates appeared to relate to his health, as the strikeouts mostly dried up in the middle of the summer, around the time he was dealing with a shoulder strain. By season's end, he had evidently put those those issues behind him, finishing with a 2.91 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 21 innings over his final 20 appearances. And even with the lack of whiffs, Fien had a good season overall. His 117 ERA+ was his best in a full season. His 1.09 WHIP was undeniably excellent, and exactly what you want from a pitcher getting high-leverage chances. His ability to keep runners off the basepaths was driven in part by his elite control; among qualified relievers, only Oakland's Evan Scribner had a walk rate lower than Fien's 1.1 BB/9. It was the third consecutive season in which Fien has ranked near the top of the league leaderboard in that category, and that is not something to be overlooked. Ultimately, when you account for the righty's proclivity for pounding the strike zone, along with his enduring mid-90s velocity, his strong finish, and the relatively low cost of keeping him around (in the Offseason Handbook, we estimated that he'd make $2.5 million in 2016) the decision to tender him a contract is a very defensible one. The downward strikeout trend is troubling, however, especially on a team that desperately needs to find more K's in the bullpen. All things considered, if Fien is the No. 3 right-hander in the bullpen heading into next season, he's nice to have on board. If he's the second option, routinely being called on to pitch the eighth inning, then some of the concerns surrounding him become magnified. So much will depend on what happens with Trevor May and with the remaining offseason moves. Click here to view the article

Now that he has addressed the needs for a catcher and power bat with the additions of John Ryan Murphy and Byung Ho Park, one of Terry Ryan's top priorities will be finding an impact lefty for the bullpen. Here's the latest on some candidates as next week's Winter Meetings approach.* According to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, the Twins "definitely have interest" in bringing back veteran Neal Cotts, who became a free agent at season's end after joining the Twins in August. Cotts, who turns 36 in March, posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 68 appearances this year, including 3.95 and 1.39 in 14 late-season appearances with Minnesota. He signed a one-year, $3 million deal with Milwaukee last offseason and figures to get something similar this time around. Cotts has been decent over the past of couple years but if the Twins are truly trying to craft a power pen, they should aim higher for their top lefty option. * In the same article, Berardino reports that free agent Brian Duensing hasn't heard from the Twins. Once a solid southpaw specialist, Duensing has declined steadily over the past few seasons to the point where he was roundly ineffective in 2015. The Twins are expected to move on. * Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweeted that the Twins have been in contact with Tony Sipp, who ranked as the No. 2 free agent left-handed reliever in the Offseason Handbook following a fantastic season with the Astros. It would probably cost a fair amount to get Sipp signed, but Ryan might be more inclined to meet his asking price given that the 32-year-old is effective against both lefties and righties, providing Paul Molitor more late-inning flexibility. Wolfson mentioned that he didn't get the sense an offer has been made to Sipp. * The best free agent lefty reliever is Antonio Bastardo, who has averaged 11 K/9 in his career and is only 30. In the Handbook we estimated that he would get a three-year, $21 million contract but there has been no public steam surrounding his market up to this point. It looks as though Darren O'Day, a righty who is one of the top relievers in free agency, is poised to sign somewhere soon, and once he does, I'd expect a bunch of other dominos to start falling. * The Rule 5 Draft takes place next Thursday. Ryan and the Twins have used this avenue to add bullpen arms twice in the past three years, though both Ryan Pressly and J.R. Graham were righties. Could the club target a left-handed reliever next Thursday? Baseball America's J.J. Cooper listed several names to remember in his Rule 5 preview last month, and among them were a few hard-throwing southpaws: Chicago's Onelki Garcia, Houston's Reymin Guduan and Kansas City's Sam Selman. All have posted big strikeout rates in the minors, but also have significant control issues that would inhibit their chances of finding fast success in the majors. Another to keep in mind: 22-year-old Cardinals prospect Luis Perdomo, who shares a name with the righty reliever who made 15 appearances for the Twins back in 2012. Click here to view the article

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving weekend. Let's get caught up on some of the latest Twins-related offseason stories as we prepare to flip the calendar to December.* Korean slugger Byung Ho Park is traveling to Minnesota this week, where his side will meet with the Twins in efforts to hammer out a deal ahead of the December 8th deadline, which is suddenly only a week away. The Twins won exclusive negotiating rights with Park in early November with a $12.85 million bid. Using the contract that Pittsburgh inked with fellow Korean Jung Ho Kang last year as a baseline, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press ballparks a prospective Park contract around five years and $32.5 million. That would represent a total investment of $45 million, which would signal a very strong belief in Park's ability. It would also mark the third straight offseason in which the Twins invest more than $40 million into a free agent. All expectations are that a deal will be finalized this week. * If Park does indeed sign, attention will shift to finding a spot for him in the lineup. Things have been quiet on the Trevor Plouffe trade rumor front up to this point, but that could change when the MLB Winter Meetings get underway in Nashville next Monday. Bringing general managers from all 30 teams together in one central location, the Winter Meetings often serve as a springboard for trade talks. A few weeks ago we took a look at Plouffe's potential trade market. Miguel Sano, who will need to move out of the DH spot in order to make room for Park, has recently missed some time in the Dominican Winter League team for what Berardino reports was a trip back to the United Sates at the Twins' request. Sano was expected to return to action this week. Curiously, he has played only at DH and third base in the winter league despite Twins officials holding the line that the current plan is to move him to the outfield in 2016. * The Tigers made their first big splash of the offseason this weekend when they agreed to terms with right-hander Jordan Zimmermann on a five-year, $110 million contract. It's a return to the midwest for the 29-year-old Zimmermann, who hails from Auburndale, WI, and played college ball three hours east of the Twin Cities in Stevens Point. He has spent his entire career pitching for the Nationals, compiling a 70-50 record with a 3.22 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and his control is elite. It will be interesting to see how his game translates to the American League. While the Twins were adding 13 wins to their 2014 total this year, the Tigers moved in the opposite direction by adding 15 losses and missing the playoffs for the first time in five seasons. They needed a replacement at the top of the rotation with David Price out of the picture, and it looks like they're betting on Zimmermann, who we ranked as the No. 4 free agent starter in the Offseason Handbook. Even with the addition of a premium arm, the Tigers have plenty to worry about going forward. Their roster is aging and they're not likely to get a whole lot of help from a farm system that was ranked by Baseball America in the spring as the worst in baseball (though, in fairness, was bolstered by the Price trade in July). Click here to view the article

As Thanksgiving arrives and we reflect on all of the many things that we are thankful for, our team at Twins Daily has no shortage of gratitude.First and foremost, we're thankful for our readers and commenters here on the site. You all have made this an amazing place to come and discuss our favorite team every day. So far this year, more than half a million unique visitors have stopped by Twins Daily, blowing away our total for the entirety of 2014. We are on track to approach 10 million page views. As long as you folks keep coming, we'll keeping working our hardest to provide the best independent baseball coverage in town. On that note, we're also thankful to everyone who has bought a copy of our Offseason Handbook. It's a fun (though exhausting) product to put together, and the reception in terms of sales and feedback made those efforts feel worthwhile. If you haven't picked up a copy yet, it makes a great read for the long holiday weekend as the Winter Meetings approach. We're thankful for our moderators, who maintain sanity and civility in our forums. That can be a tremendous challenge at times, but these individuals work tirelessly to ensure that the TD message boards remain a welcoming environment where fans of all stripes can feel comfortable expressing their viewpoints and exchanging ideas. We're thankful for every last blog contribution that is submitted to the site. I've read a lot of really great stuff here this year that didn't come from any of the core writers and I've discovered a number of new voices that I thoroughly enjoy. That was always a big part of the vision when we first launched three years ago. We're thankful this Twins team that we cover so obsessively has returned to relevance with a winning season and a clear upward trajectory. With a big wave of young talent entering the fold, and a couple of major moves already in the books here in this young offseason, there's plenty of reason for optimism that even better things are on the horizon. We're extremely excited for everything that lies ahead this winter and into next season. It's a great time to be a Twins fan and we're grateful to be able to share the ride with all of you. Have an awesome holiday! Click here to view the article

Sure. Unfortunately, I don't think a rotation full of flame-throwers or a top-tier power-hitting lineup in 2016 is remotely realistic, so that discussion is basically irrelevant.

When the Kansas City Royals won the World Series earlier this month after coming up just short in 2014, it spawned an army of articles on how every other team could learn from their success and implement aspects of their blueprint. In reality, the foundations of Kansas City's rise to the top have been fairly simple: They get good enough performances from starting pitchers, play roundly excellent defense and consistently execute offensively. Perhaps the defining component of the club, though, has been a phenomenal relief corps that turns virtually every late lead into a victory.Over the last two years, the Royals have gone 138-10 when leading after six frames. There's a certain psychological edge that is gained when you have an array of intimidating power arms at your disposal in the late innings. Many general managers – and Terry Ryan is one of them – will say that starting pitching is at the core of a winning formula. That's true to an extent, but it's becoming a little less true these days with bullpens growing more specialized and prominent. As evidence, here's where the World Champion Royals saw their starting pitchers rank out of 30 MLB clubs across various categories this year: ERA: 22nd OPS: 21st WHIP: 25th K/9: 25th The shutdown bullpen made up for their weakness in the rotation to a rather stunning degree, as the Royals still managed to allow fewer runs than all but two AL teams. The Twins are not likely to have an elite rotation in 2016, but what they lack in top-shelf talent they make up for with quality depth. A group that is solid one-through-five looks like a fairly safe bet. As the Royals have shown, when you combine a good-not-great rotation with a deep and dominant bullpen, you can beat anyone. To me, this is the clearest path to making the Twins a true championship contender in 2016. So just what will it take for Minnesota's bullpen to elevate to that point? They certainly weren't there this year, ranking 10th in the AL in ERA, eighth in WHIP, and dead last in strikeout rate. Last week, Seth looked at how the unit might come together with the pieces that are currently in place. Today, I'll piggyback on that post with a look at some factors that will determine Minnesota's chances of fielding a top-tier bullpen next year. Will Terry Ryan's focus on adding velocity to the bullpen continue? Since Ryan took over the GM reins once again in 2012, his increased emphasis on acquiring hard-throwing pitchers with strikeout stuff has been impossible to ignore, especially when juxtaposed against his previous tenure. In his first offseason back at the helm he traded for Alex Meyer and Trevor May. Each of the past few draft classes has included numerous powerful college arms that profile as late-inning relievers. This year, five of the six highest fastball velocities among Twins relievers belonged to Meyer, May, J.R. Graham (acquired by Ryan in the Rule 5 draft last year), Kevin Jepsen (acquired by Ryan at the deadline this year) and Ryan Pressly (acquired by Ryan in the Rule 5 draft two years ago). Last week, the club's 40-man roster juggling included outrighting A.J. Achter, whose upper-80s heater belied his outstanding minor-league results, while adding several raw young arms that can approach triple-digits, including J.T. Chargois, Yorman Landa, Mason Melotakis and Randy Rosario. Up to this point, the approach hasn't really paid off yet, but as long as the front office continues to prioritize these types of players, it will bode well for the bullpen's outlook. Can Glen Perkins return to form? It's probably the biggest question in this equation. For the majority of the last five seasons Perkins has been easily the most reliable and overpowering reliever on the Twins, so seeing him devolve into a hittable mess over the final two months was disheartening to say the least. That's why I ranked his second half as one of the five worst things to happen to the team this year, but as I said in that article, I'm optimistic that Perk will put in the necessary work to get back to his previous standing. He's been too good for too long to let a couple of months of health-related struggles change our overall perception of him. Will the young guns arrive and make an impact? Several of the hard-throwing hurlers acquired in recent drafts were positioned to break through this season, and that might have contributed to Ryan's conservative approach to addressing the bullpen last winter, when his most high-profile addition was Tim Stauffer. In 2014, a number of different minor-leaguers – such as Nick Burdi, Jake Reed and Zack Jones – put themselves on the fast track by posting fantastic numbers while brandishing upper-90s gas. Unfortunately, all of them stalled out this year and failed to take meaningful steps forward. Fortunately, they're all still under 25, and both Burdi and Reed are coming off eye-popping performances in the Arizona Fall League. Add into that mix Meyer, whose transition to relief may be permanent, and you've got four fireballers in the high minors with a very real chance of entering the picture and developing into potent weapons next year. I'll be interested to see whether Jones, who curiously was not among the recent 40-man additions, makes it through the Rule 5 draft next month unclaimed. I suspect he will not. Can Trevor May become Wade Davis Lite? Davis is the key to the entire Royals bullpen. He's arguably the best reliever in the American League, and since he hasn't been the the closer for most of the last two seasons, Ned Yost has had the luxury of deploying him at the most critical junctures possible, matching him up against the opposing lineup's best hitters in extremely high-leverage spots. I'm not saying that May is going to reach the level of Davis, because that's a preposterously high bar, but he has a somewhat similar profile as the former highly regarded prospect who was solid enough as a big-league starter but unleashed a new level of dominance in short relief stints. If he can continue to get sharper as he grows more comfortable in that role, it's not hard to envision May being the best right-handed reliever that the Twins have had since Joe Nathan. Of course, the question is whether the 26-year-old will indeed be used as a reliever or starter next year. Seth wrote last week that he fully expects May to pitch out of the bullpen all year, and given the circumstances, that's hard to argue against. Will the Twins make another big addition? Entering the season with a bullpen anchored by Perkins, Jepsen and May would be respectable, but the strength of Kansas City's game-changing bullpen is in its depth. It's not just that they have guys like Davis and Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera at the top, it's that they can dig deeper and call on guys like Ryan Madson, Franklin Morales and Luke Hochevar, who are as good as the setup men on many opposing clubs. If the Twins truly want a bullpen that sets them apart from the competition, I believe they need to bring on at least one more established premium arm for the late innings, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Perkins. That might mean an aggressive splash in the free agent market or trading for someone like Drew Storen or even Aroldis Chapman. Would Ryan be so bold? Click here to view the article

Gambling on those big numbers at AAA. It was pretty clear to me even from watching him a little bit that the stuff isn't MLB-caliber.