drjim
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Everything posted by drjim
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I would say being leftist on economics is more populist, but probably more accurate to say anti-corporate and the favors government grants them. This doesn't fit left/right very smoothly but is certainly at odds with the elites in both parties. Our current parties have masked it a little, but I think the biggest divide in the nation is the economic divide between (for lack of a better proxy) college and non college graduates. Neither party really does much for the non college group, so the battle is fought on other issues. Trump is really the first to tap into this from the economic side, which is why he has such a sustained floor of support. Of course there is more there, but this strikes me as a fundamental issue. Even if Trump is defeated, this political space he occupies isn't going away, and it's not clear which party can move in.
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Looks like 6/$22.5 a year. I think he ends up being the best bat signed this winter. Kind of wish it wasn't to another team in the AL Central. I don't think it's enough, but I think it is the right move for the Tigers to push all in. EDIT: 6/$132.75 with an opt out.
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I don't know if it's fair to compare a guys first pro season to second, and rate stats when there is about a 2 to 1 difference in PA is a little dicey. I would still pick Gordon.
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An Updated Look At Twins Payroll
drjim replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Payroll will be at least $200k less than listed. Sweeney is not breaking camp ahead of Buxton. -
They really aren't Democrats and Independents anymore, they are Republicans or non-voters. Democrats are primarily urban, college educated whites and minorities, with osome exceptions. This is pretty much the exact opposite of who is attracted to Trump. They might have been Democrats 10-15 years ago, but there is a reason they are supporting a Republican right now. I think Trump is showing that the re-alignment of the past 10 years has left a significant stream of the Republican base that is not as conservative as is thought on many issues. Much more populist economically with a somewhat socially moderate stream (and relatively irreligious) that is more pushing back against social liberalism than really pushing towards social conservatism, and a desire to be more isolationist. I do believe in the (more or less) three streams of the Republican party right now - business conservatives, social conservatives, and this new Trump supporting stream, with a little Neocon mixed in. I just don't see even one issue, aside from not wanting Hillary Clinton, that they can rally around.
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I would disagree he has the least to offer. If Arcia continues his trend of last year and doesn't hit, he offers nothing. And Santana has tools and ceiling, but not clear he can hit either or that his D at SS is even as good. Nunez offers a floor, probably a good balance to the high upside but no guarantee offered by the other two bench spots. I do agree that Polanco would likely offer more, but he is better off in the beginning of the year playing every day and being available to sub in for an injury if needed. Worry about him as a backup in the second half.
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Who cares about his lifetime WAR? He's a utility guy, which means some initial bad seasons would be expected, and he has produced a little in the last couple of years (including a 1.1 WAR, positive UZR at SS and LF last year). And he has some speed. 8 SBs in limited playing time. Some speed, some pop, acceptable bb/k for a part time guy, can play a few positions. What exactly do you expect from a bench guy?
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The strategy is don't overpay for veteran relievers (especially years), give priority to internal evaluation, emphasize internal talent, don't make changes unless forced to, flood with numbers. I'm not saying it's all good or I fully agree, but it's not especially mysterious. While I agree there was a need in the bullpen for much of the year, I don't really agree there was plenty of opportunity to improve. Even a good move (Jepsen) was crushed on this board, I can only imagine the response to another trade. And I'm a little skeptical that the pitchers often cited as available to be called up (Berrios aside) would have made much of a difference. But of course that conversation has been hashed, rehashed, beaten to death, resurrected, beaten to a second death, rehashed again, etc. IAnd 'm just not that worked up about Rogers. He'll be good or he won't this year. He's one of many options.
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Is it certain Rogers, even if called up, would get those opportunities? And if he blew them himself, would people be thinking that was OK? There was lots of outcry to get Achter up. I don't really agree that pitching a few low leverage innings in September does much for 2016. I will say that looking back at Meyer's numbers down the stretch in Rochester, he did much better than I remembered. I wonder if the decision was based as much on having him end on a high note and reset for 2016 rather than potentially exposing him to another struggle in an important spot in September and being back at square one in March.
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Good chance this happens by midseason. Polanco is still young enough that there is value in having him take everyday reps in the minors for the first couple of months and only coming up if there is an injury and he's going to play every day. On a related note, I do think an underrated aspect of the Twins right now is that they have some pretty good depth heading into the season - which strikes me as a way for a team to outperform their projections.
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Rogers and Meyer didn't bother me all that much. For better or worse they weren't going pitch a meaningful inning in September. Rogers wasn't going to pitch ahead of Cotts. The time for Rogers, if he was going to contribute down the stretch, was late July/early August. I still have some hope that Meyer will be salvageable as a bullpen asset, but it wasn't happening last year. And Rogers is a fine bullpen prospect and I hope he gets a legit chance to break camp in the bigs this spring, but he wasn't going to be a difference maker from day one. Berrios had the chance to be a difference maker down the stretch out of the pen (albeit with the risk that has been discussed). Beyond that, I was fine either way.
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You probably have a different view, but as an outsider I'm still not sure punting was the right move.
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I would also add that money probably have very little bearing on the decision not to bring him up. And likely will have very little bearing this year. I agree it is more about numbers and depth (this year).
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I don't buy that any of the teams are doing a full Houston, but this is a really good point. Houston might be the fluke. If these teams get it wrong, and have completely stripped down their organization, they are looking at multiple cycles and 6, 7, 10 years or more of not being competitive. That is a huge risk. If I'm a team that is not "tanking" I would certainly welcome another team that is "tanking." EDIT: Thinking about this, fluke is the wrong word, Houston has talented people that executed a plan very well. Outlier might be the better word, though there was some good fortune (such as the emergence of Keuchel) to more than balance out the bad moves. Either way, it is a very thin line to walk to pull it off. I don't recommend it for teams - and the cost was high in lost attendance and cratering tv ratings.
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I'm still quite skeptical of Sanders' chances overall. He might steal a victory in NH, but Clinton is still an 82% favorite in Iowa right now according to 538. NH is close (it does border Vermont after all), and after that I suspect it gets really good for Clinton. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/
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I think if he starts in Rochester he will lose a start or two based on late start to the season and the extra day or two during the callup. If he is up he can be finessed around the all start break and maybe another start or two pushed back/skipped throughout the year. I see them having a plan to maximize his mlb effectiveness as opposed to last year when there was probably no plan in spring training to push him. I would bet the low end of that estimate, more like 170-180 ip by the time the season ends, which would give him the opportunity to make a handful of starts in the playoffs and still not have pushed him irresponsibly. If they don't make the playoffs it is still a good outcome for Berrios, as he won't be pushed and will have logged enough innings to be quite ready to go a full year, opening day to game 7, in 2017.
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Baseball America's Top 10 Twins Prospects
drjim replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I would have Park 5th, but otherwise agree with the list. Burdi is probably 10 because of RP discount. They remain stubborn with Stewart. -
For those into Pocasts, Effectively Wild (Baseball Prospectus) provided an interesting outside perspective on the Twins (and the whole Central). Basically they find doing minimal for a team on the Twins position is probably the best route. Errors of commission over errors of omission and all that - though they did say another minor move (ahem, lh reliever) would probably be a good idea. I don't necessarily agree, I would like to have seen a little more aggression, but interesting that there might be logic to limited moves.
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You were pushing the Yankee example while stating financial considerations for the other two. Didn't think it was an unfair next step to compare the Twins to the three organizations listed.
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Good problem to have? Or they will be so far ahead they can skip a start or three late in the season...
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The primary reason would be they won't have a specific day in mind when to recall him. He will likely be the 6th starter and need to be ready to come up if someone is injured. He'll have to be in the habit of going every 5 innings, and ready to step in. I do think he can go about a full season, he is likely to be more of a 5-6 inning guy than a 7 his first several starts.
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Not understanding correctly. But it also explains the primary reason why he won't start the season in the big league rotation. He'll start in AAA, those initial innings will be managed a little bit, and when he gets called up he'll be ready to go for the rest of the season. Finished around 160 innings last year, should be in line to get around 185 this year. Gradual buildup and then ready for a wire to wire season in the bigs in 2017.
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That specific side thread was more about significantly pushing total innings pitched in a season - so if he would have been called up and allowed to start every 5-6 days until the end of the season and what impact that has on a young arm going forward. Teams are generally very conservative about pushing innings increases significantly for young arms as they first break into the majors - Mike suggested there is no evidence of any downside to doing this, I don't agree, because every team will be conservative in pushing innings, there is likely something driving that internally, even if we don't have all the data externally, and there are really no studies out there disproving it either. Berrios finished 2015 30ish innings above 2014, and if they would have pushed him in September for another 5 starts, that would have been a pretty significant jump. I personally would have called him up in August to work as a multi-inning reliever, but also acknowledge the risk and potential cost going forward (ie potentially setback in his development, not setting him up for finishing this season as a starter). I also think just putting him the rotation towards the end of the minor league season and letting him take a turn every 5 days would have been irresponsible and no team would have done that - without a very specific plan that was implemented for day 1 to limit innings throughout the season to allow a finish. Berrios is much too valuable going forward to take that sort of risk, especially considering the overall quality of the team last year.
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The key difference is the Yankees had a clear plan to get Severino in the majors starting beginning in spring training, because they would have had a higher expectation of competition. And come on, the Twins are much, much closer to the Rays and Pirates than the Yankees in financial matters. The counterexample, in my mind, is Houston and McCullers. But McCullers was a better prospect, probably more ready, and the Astros had the much better start and more time to prepare. The Astros are clearly much more aggressive in many areas.
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Is this referring to the Baseball Prospectus article dealing with the Verducci Effect or a different one? Because that study didn't really address this specific situation, and the little bit that it did was at best inconclusive. Verducci Effect is pretty nonsensical, but it is also an extremely rough theory that looks at pretty basic parameters and looks for only one outcome. This is a much more complex situation. And while many teams are certainly conservative, I would expect that there would be at least a couple front offices secure enough to attempt something like this if they truly believed there was zero evidence of the impact of a large jump in innings as a young pitcher broke into the majors. This is different than doing in game decisions by the book, this is a long term plan and impact.
