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drjim

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Everything posted by drjim

  1. drjim
    I admit I might be light on Verdugo, haven't dug into him as much. I probably overstated that. Sickels Dodgers list comes out tomorrow.
  2. drjim
    Would prefer pitching, but they'll take talent.
  3. drjim
    The Twins would take Bellinger in a second.
  4. drjim
    To me, one of Calhoun/Verdugo/Sheffield is not strong enough for a second piece. I would maybe consider De Leon and all 3. But I think it is hard to do a trade without one of Stewart, Alvarez, or Buehler in addition to De Leon.
  5. drjim
    That's fair. But I'm skeptical that the Dodgers would include Stewart with De Leon because that harms their immediate depth. But that second piece has to come from somewhere if the Twins are going to do it.
  6. drjim
    They generally aren't traded because value for players that far away isn't as high, especially for pitchers. Certainly teams would like to hold those assets, but they also don't move the needle in trades as much as the upside might suggest. Makes me think Alvarez is more available than his ranking might suggest.
  7. drjim
    I have to admit, Les Miles would be fun. But it's going to be Fleck. Meh.
  8. drjim
    Also might make Alvarez more doable instead of Stewart.
  9. drjim
    But is it clear he knew he was injured? I think the mentality is always play if you can. It's not up to him to decide that he is superior to others. Injuries are rarely black and white, they are often more gradual deteriorations. Athletes can't consider that if they want to perform at the highest level.
  10. drjim
    I don't think Vegas runs straight playoff odds. They run over/under and league champions and world series. Best I could find is 65/1 to win the pennant, so 1.5%. That strikes me as about a 10% chance to make the playoffs. Which I would say is about 20% to be in contention. http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/ But in reality it's pretty academic. Plan on the 4 out of 5, but also don't make a bad trade.
  11. drjim
    I wouldn't bet on 20% either, but it is still part of the equation if the offer for Dozier just isn't there.
  12. drjim
    And that's not saying 20% chance to make playoffs, only to be in contention. I would put odds right now of playoffs as less than 10%. But this is baseball and they have superstar upside on a couple of guys. That is enough that they will always have a floor of 10% to make the playoffs.
  13. drjim
    They are probably about a 74ish true talent team. Slightly more than one standard deviation from that, especially considering their high beta, would put them in the low 80s and playoff contention. 20% chance of being in contention sounds about right.
  14. drjim
    Mlbtraderumors gave the interpretation that it might have been 1 for 1 and LEN3 is a little ambiguous, but probably the best interpretation in my mind is there is not a second significant, highly ranked prospect. Surely there would have to be more to the deal than De Leon otherwise it's a big waste of time to even keep talking. To the previous post, LEN3 is not making this up, clearly a Twins source leaked this to him. The question that Neal doesn't address that we can speculate on is whether it is accurate and what the Twins motivation would be for leaking this.
  15. drjim
    Dismissing a different conclusion as merely narrative seems a little unfair.
  16. drjim
    I think I would value Buehler higher, though the TJ makes it hard.
  17. drjim
    Good podcast. I think this is the year we really finally see the fruits of the passive job Ryan did on talent acquisition. The drafts weren't steller, more missed opportunities than train wrecks, but the lack of good trades and not being aggressive in international markets is what has really caught up to the Twins. Going to take some time to rebuild it.
  18. drjim
    Seems there is a legit shot 5 guys make it this year. Bagwell and Raines are definites, Rodriguez is very likely, Hoffman and Vlad as well. Should clear some of the back log and let other people in the next couple of years. Edgar Martinez is the likely biggest beneficiary along with Bonds/Clemens. And I imagine Mussina makes it soon and Schilling too, if he would shut up for a little bit.
  19. drjim
    Correct. 4th OF types don't exactly bring massive returns at the deadline.
  20. drjim
    I will admit that today was the first day I felt slightly less bad about the upcoming couple of years. Trump may realize that every time he bucks the Republican congress he'll get glowing national press, which is something he clearly desires. That, combined with individuals like Bannon who, despite his many terrible attributes, does want to humiliate Rs and especially Ryan. All this does open up the possibility that Trump and Congress end up going at each other more than actually do anything, which is probably a best case scenario. Alas, doesn't do a whole lot for foreign policy.
  21. drjim
    Fair enough. I would be curious to hear what she and other women like her think was gained by Claeys getting fired. From my perspective, there seems to be battles worth fighting and targets worth going after. Claeys just seems hallow on that front. And potentially risks alienating people who might be allies in future battles.
  22. drjim
    There is a huge difference between Power 5 schools and all others. The first domino to fall will be the non Power 5 schools (plus a handful of others) that give scholarships. That strikes me as a loss. Either the power schools will form a different league or the other schools that give scholarships will downgrade. The D2 and D3 schools that have sports are a clear loss, but would probably argue it attracts students. Not exactly clear that is the case.
  23. drjim
    She was certainly quite useful in helping the administration get rid of Claeys with less blood on their hands.
  24. drjim
    I would support this 100%. Wonder when it will happen.
  25. drjim
    I'm not a woman, but this strikes me as misdirected. But congratulations I guess?
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