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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    That's all fine and good in a vacuum, but the FO has to deal in reality. Most proven, starting quality players aren't going to sign somewhere if they don't see a job opening. So what are we talking about here? A manager problem who kept going to the well with a vet like Morrison who sucked? That manager got fired. You're not going to have a roster with 25 starters on it. And you're going to have a problem if every guy on the roster thinks they should be starting and isn't willing to fill a role. You have to have guys on your roster that fill roles, not just for pitching but for the lineup, especially when you only get 12-13 spots for the guys in the field. Adrianza fills a role: positional flexibility with at least adequate defense and hitting that's respectable for middle infield. You bring up Jake Cave and suggest he competed for Kepler's playing time, but the reality is, with Buxton hurt/ineffective there was an opening for a guy to get some OF playing time. He didn't take away any time from Kepler, who had a career high in games played and plate appearances. Cave's a useful player, but he also had a BABIP of .363 which probably isn't sustainable. He's still a useful player because he can't be an effective CF for you if Buxton repeats last year and be a nice defensive replacement in the corners. but he's not pushing Kepler out of RF. The problem the Twins have right now in the OF is they don't know if Kepler can hit enough to be an every day RF or Buxton can hit enough to be an every day CF.
  2. jmlease1
    bWAR thinks Adrianza was better than Neil Walker last season, and at 4 years younger I think it's a decent bet Adrianza will be better this year too. The year before Neil Walker was getting paid $17M (and was probably not better than Adrianza; the difference in their bWAR is mostly attributed to playing time, as Walker got double the PAs). Walker looks like an ok starter who has gone into the decline phase of his career and will be out of the league within the next two years if he doesn't have a significant bounceback because no one wants to pay $4-5M to an aging backup whose D is slipping and hit tool is vanishing. Brock Holt was better than Adrianza last year, worse the year before. Holt has a better track record overall, Adrianza is younger and cheaper. Odds are pretty good that they'll be pretty similar players this year. As a backup Adrianza is a useful player, especially at this age and at this cost.
  3. jmlease1
    he's got good positional flexibility and does fine with limited playing time. A useful player with a good floor and a marginal ceiling. I look at a player like Adrianza like this: if you're feeling really good about your regular lineup, you like him and feel fine about him as a bench guy who can stop up the cracks. The worse you feel about your every day lineup, the less you like him. The last two years he's been an effective sub for us as he's gotten more playing time, but that's almost certainly the limit for him. That said, I still think he's a perfectly fine guy to fill out the back end of the 25-man roster.
  4. jmlease1
    Schoop's BABIP in full MLB seasons (at least 135 games): .249, .305, .330, .261 The .330 feels like the flukiest of these. (admittedly, he put up a .329 once as well, but it was also the season he only played 86 games...) I just don't think he's a guy who can sustain a high BABIP and it leaves him vulnerable. JMO. Kinda feel like a reunion with Dozier is a better idea than Schoop.
  5. jmlease1
    I'm not a fan of Schoop. His 2017 season is starting to look like a fluke year to me; just not seeing him put up another BABIP of .330, which was driving some of that. I think he'll bounce back and be a decent power bat at 2B, but his ceiling looks like a 2-2.5 WAR player. I suspect his true value is the 2015-2016 version, not 2017. The low OBP is not what this team needs right now, that's for sure.
  6. jmlease1
    Lol, I'm sure Seth meant "Tendered" on Cron. I agree with all of these. I know there's some who aren't in favorite of Odorizzi, but he was solid enough as a back end guy and there's real value in a guy who you can pencil in for 30 starts and feel competitive with him. He had a nice bounceback season and if he can cut down the walks back to 2015-2016 levels, he'll be a very solid 4th guy.
  7. jmlease1
    Torii Hunter: 2013 defensive bWAR: -1.5 2014 defensive bWAR: -2.3 2015 defensive bWAR: -1.4 Fangraphs might have liked him a bit better, but he was as bad in 2013 as he was in 2015 by at least one measure. Isn't it more like Torii just had an extra bad year his second year in Detroit and reverted back towards the mean than Target Field was so much easier for him to play RF? It's possible you're right and just being in Target Field can cover some of the shortcomings of a RF with bad range and declining glove skills, but Kepler is just flat-out great and it doesn't matter what park it is. he makes all the plays out there and makes plays he shouldn't be able to do. a big part of his value is in the OF defense he brings to the table. you may not think that matters, but I'm guessing the pitching staff disagrees...
  8. jmlease1
    Torii was not a "league average" defender out there in 2015, not even close. he was almost exactly as awful as he was in 2013 with the Tigers, he just wasn't as horrendously abysmal as he was in 2014 with the Tigers. Torii was 2017 Eddie Rosario in Target Field: awful. target Field did not make Torii a league average player again, he was in fact a sub-replacement level player by bWAR. I don't think Target Field is some bandbox with high walls to keep the HRs in play, either. And yes, with Buxton in CF the RF doesn't have to cover as much territory, but with a fielder of Kepler's capacity whomever is playing CF can shade over to LF and help Rosario out without losing anything.
  9. jmlease1
    Yeah, just not loving the idea of putting Kepler at 1B, I mean I guess it might be better than having him DH as a way to get more LH hitters in the lineup because his size and athleticism should translate well there, but man...we're doing it for Jake Cave? I guess I wouldn't care about it for 10-12 games, but I'm hoping Kepler improves offensively and coupled with his elite D can be a mainstay in the OF. but he needs to hit, because if his hitting doesn't improve it's hard to justify his bat at any other position. People haven't been happy with Mauer's production at 1B, and Joe was elite defensively. We don't know if Max could match that D (maybe with enough play time?) and he's hit worse than Mauer the last three years and it's not really close. I do like the idea of letting Astudillo get 500 ABs, though. This lineup could use another high BA guy and it'd be fun as hell to see if he can be one of those guys who can get away with hacking at everything because he just hits it. Super utility guy who can hit over .300? sign me up.
  10. jmlease1
    I'd be fine with adding carlos santana; I think he's likely to have a bit of a bounce back year (career low BABIP last season almost certainly depressed that BA and SLG) and is still a 2-3 WAR player whose switch hitting and ability to hit LHP and get on base would be a solid fit with Cron. What confuses the heck out of me are the people in this thread advocating to move Max Kepler to 1B. Kepler's greatest value to the team last year was defensive and if you dump him in at 1B you diminish his greatest strengths right now (elite D in RF, above average D in CF, ability to PLAY CF effectively) while emphasizing his biggest weaknesses (hitting, hitting, hitting...). He's a terrific defensive player in the OF, why on earth would you move him to the least impactful defensive position on the field?
  11. jmlease1
    This is something of a marginal move, but I was never all that sold on Tyler Austin anyways. I'll have to go look at the FAs but I do think it would be good for this squad to get a high OBP LH hitter to help out. A lot of this probably comes down to Austin v. Cron, and if you had to bet on who's likely to be a better player next year...how do you not take Cron? He's got 2 years of being a 2 WAR player and neither had any unsustainable fluke elements like an out of character BABIP. There's nothing wonky in his splits (like beating the crap out of september callup pitching to pad the numbers) to make you freak out. He's probably a 1.5-2.4 bWAR guy for the next 2-3 years and I'd be nervous on betting Austin can come close to matching that. yes, he's going to cost more than Austin but he's also probably worth 1 more WAR than Austin. I'll take that marginal improvement for $4.5M, especially considering 1 WAR is worth about $8-9M. I'm not a big fan of Austin. Not sure he'll ever get the OBP to where it needs to be to be an effective Three True Outcomes guy. It was a fine acquisition to dump Lance Lynn, and he's a decent depth guy, but I'd much rather have Cron at this point.
  12. jmlease1
    It's going to be very interesting to see if Rogers improvement against RHB is real or one of those relief pitcher variable years. He was massively better against RHBs in 2018 vs 2017...but not that different from 2016. His ability to keep the ball in the park last year was the real key, i think, but it's hard to know how much of that was luck or skill with a relatively small data set. He's a useful pitcher even if he regresses some against RHBs again, but it's encouraging that there's an approach change that has coincided with his increased success. That does help me believe this may be more repeatable and an indicator of future success. no question, Twins will be looking to him as an important late-inning option.
  13. jmlease1
    Looks like a solid group. I'm not worried about their youth/lack of lengthy MLB coaching experience. It's not like this staff is filled up with people who have never coached before. There's some good diversity of experience and background that looks like a positive. Hopefully, they'll be able to work together effectively (probably the most underrated aspect of a coaching staff).
  14. jmlease1
    He was 3rd in ABs on the Elizabethton roster in 2017. He played a full season in that short league at age 18. His 2016 season was Dominican summer league; betting his brief appearance there had more to do with timing and his signing than injury. His injury this season was significant, and it's fair to be concerned about how he'll bounce back, but as the youngest player at Elizabethton he looked awfully promising and I don't think it's justified to call him injury-prone yet.
  15. jmlease1
    I was on this train earlier and Seth is bringing me around. If your list is more about upside and tools (and that's perfectly fair!) then this ranking makes a fair amount of sense. And it's really only this season he missed; kid doesn't even turn 20 until the end of the year!
  16. jmlease1
    Sending Jax to the AFL to get some work in was a good call by management. he's an interesting prospect, and he's going to be one of the pitching prospects I'll be most curious about in the upcoming season. If he puts together a strong season, he could advance quickly. Fun story, he's got some talent, looking forward to seeing how it goes for him.
  17. jmlease1
    On a scale of 1-10, what do you think Joe Mauer's embarrassment level would have been if they'd done a farewell tour, like Mariano Rivera? 10? 14? 22? I'm also not betting against the idea that he's writing thank you notes to everybody he played with/against who paid tribute to him on social media.
  18. jmlease1
    No chance. Joe Mauer is so low-drama and anti-diva he'd never be able to do it. I mean, this is a guy who gets crucified regularly on KFAN for being too boring (and let's be honest, because he no interest in doing media appearances with Dan Barreiro). he just doesn't have the ego in him to try to reappear on the stage after being retired for a year or two. Especially since you know that the number one reason he's hanging it up is because he doesn't want to get another concussion and risk long-term health problems.
  19. jmlease1
    Loved Joe Mauer. What an amazing, beautiful swing. When I think of Joe at the plate, I'll always remember feeling like he was gonna get a hit. How could he not, with that eye and that swing? And then watch him rip another double to the opposite field gap in left center. I really wish he'd gotten the recognition he deserved as a defensive 1B; he should have won a gold glove there, and I really think it says something about who Joe Mauer is and what kind of player that he was that he made that position shift and wasn't satisfied with being solid (which he was almost immediately) but worked to become great defensively again. Good luck Joe, and enjoy retirement with your kids. I was hoping for one last run, but I don't blame you at all for hanging it up after the latest concussion. ****ing hell, concussions are bad ****.
  20. jmlease1
    How many of Scott Boras' "clients" actually get any time with Scott Boras himself? It's one of the reasons you see guys changing agents, not unusual for some of them to realize they may have signed with the super-agent, but he spends most of his time with other people. I'm certainly not worried about a couple of our minor league guys being signed with a blowhard agent who insults the franchise; they're already signed to the team. Don't know that I love Happ as a signing...I suspect if he gets a 3-year deal; that last year is going to be crap. (ineffective and/or injured) I keep thinking it about it this way: Kyle Gibson right now is our #2 starter. I'd like anyone we sign to be better than Kyle Gibson. Not sure Happ is that guy, he feels more like a 3 or 4 guy and seems unlikely to be as good next year as he was this year (and definitely not as good as he was for NY)
  21. jmlease1
    To your credit, you did rank Kirilloff #5 going into last year coming off a significant injury. Part of my concern is I'm worried that coming back from the shoulder injury is actually harder for a baseball player than Tommy John on a hitter. It's interesting to hear that you think the talent level is tightly bunched with the next ten guys after the top 3 (who I think everyone serious about it would say are the twins top 3, really). That's a pretty good sign for the system.
  22. jmlease1
    It's a fascinating scenario. I don't love slotting in Marwin Gonzalez; his positional flexibility is really nice, but I don't love paying him $11M a year. (and I don't love paying Grossman $4M either). Even in a "big-spender" mode those feel like less than great investments. Gonzalez hitting in 2017 looks like a fluke year, so dropping this kind of money on him doesn't make my socks roll up & down. The corbin signing would be a risk, but damn if it wouldn't be a hell of a splashy move. Berrios and Corbin would be really nice at the top of the rotation (and set the team up nicely for a playoff series), and Gibson & Pineda should be able to chew up innings well in the 3-4 slots, allowing Romero to develop with less pressure. Donaldson: I could see it. a 1 year "prove it" kind of deal to rebuild his value before he tries for one more big(ish) multi-year? It's not a crazy idea and it seems unlikely that he's going to get a 4-5 year offer at the kind of money he'll want. Maybe he could be convinced to bet on himself. Extend Berrios: love it. I'm 100% behind this. Extend Buxton: I love it and I hate it. Man, I just don't know. I want to believe! I'm afraid to believe.
  23. jmlease1
    I think Wander Javier is too high. I know he's young and has impressive tools, but he's also coming off a big injury and hasn't played any full-season baseball yet. Too much projection and uncertainty for me to have him all the way up at #4. I'd probably argue the most for Ben Rortvedt, who showed real improvement at the plate this year, with solid hitting not just at Cedar Rapids but also after his promotion to Ft. Myers. It looks like someone who will stick at catcher and if he's really improved his hit tool, then he's a much better prospect than #29. Frankly, I'm more excited about Rortvedt than I am Blankenhorn at this point. I suspect it's going to be a hard list this year with a lot of guys bunched around each other. No questions on who the top 3 are in my mind, and Seth has it nailed here. There's a really strong group coming through out of Ft. Myers right now! I wish I was feeling as positive about the guys who are closer to coming out of Rochester; several of those fellows sitting 6-10 have shown some definite question marks now that's they're in the top levels that they need to iron out if they're going to be star potential players and consistent starters, rather than reserves.
  24. jmlease1
    I dunno if this plan is achievable, but I kinda like it. McCutcheon is actually a pretty good fit for this team, and while he would cost quite a bit more than Grossman...I like him a lot better. Grossman was awful until September, has no defensive value, really and is basically a 1 trick pony. McCutcheon may have faded defensively, but he can still be solid in a corner and should be a consistent hitter. at 31 he's still likely to have a few more good years in him...maybe a 3-year deal?
  25. jmlease1
    I think there's a good point here: it's a lot easier to tear a team down to the studs after a brutal season like the 103 loss one. But they didn't and the team bounced back with an over-achieving 85 win season that put them in the playoffs. This season they got smacked around by injuries and so we dumped a bunch of guys unlikely to be part of the future/FAs. I think it gets to be a hard sell (especially in this community where ownership is perceived as cheap and not committed to winning) to start dealing younger players off the MLB roster for even more prospects, especially when the most heralded prospects in recent vintage haven't consistently graduated to become what we thought/hoped they would be. While Tom's strategy might end up being a smart one to set things up for 2021 or beyond (I'm sorry, but I think with all the moves proposed here, you're setting the MLB club back far enough that expecting them to be ready in 2020 is...unlikely) it probably gets the front office fired before it comes to fruition, unless guys like Royce Lewis & Alex Kirilloff stay on their fastest of tracks and have zero setbacks. I dunno. Of course, the bigger problem is Tom's lineup has 4 guys whose last name ends in "O", with a potential 5th in Astudillo and that's just going to wreak havoc with the announcing team.
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