jmlease1

Congrats to Schobel; he's been raking in Cedar Rapids and deserves the opportunity. I feel like AA is where we'll see just how well his bat will hold up and it should be fun to track him down the stretch. What does it mean that Salas got moved to the developmental list?

Correa has been doing a very nice job in the leadoff role. I'm guessing his foot is feeling better, which I'm sure is helping his swing and his power production, but he's also just doing a good job taking professional ABs at the top of the order. Twins don't have the most natural leadoff man on the club in a lot of ways (Julien certainly gets on base, but he's hardly speedy and you'd rather him hitting with guys on base; Buxton has the speed, but his power and injury struggles make him less ideal right now) so it's good that Correa is comfortable stepping in. I'm annoyed that they screwed him out of an extra hit, even if the Twins didn't need it. If the twins can get Buxton right and Polanco back, the offense could easily be what we hoped it would be with Correa, Julien, and Kirilloff leading the charge.

Really nice seeing the offense kick some butt last night. Julien and Kirilloff are both pretty locked in right now and showing their talent. Julien can really punish the ball and knows the strike zone, and he's done a really nice job making adjustments since his recall. Kirilloff looks healthy and comfortable up there and that was really the only thing holding him back before. Good to see him showing the power stroke a bit more, but this is why a lot of us thought he could be a core hitter for a lot of years. Ober did a nice job of pulling it together after a rocky start. I got nervous that it was going to be a night where he didn't have it after giving up the big bomb in the first inning, but he got it done after the wobbly first. Hate seeing another baffling job by the umpires: inconsistent strike zone again early (when Bremer and company are calling it out, it's a problem; that's not really their style), the blown call on Correa's infield hit was absurd, and Twins got one back on that play by Kirilloff to end the inning...but if that ball was fair, then the one he hit the night before was definitely fair. (IMHO, the umps blew both of them: Kirilloff's liner sure looked fair, and the one he fielded tonight for the out looked foul) Too many missed calls, it's exhausting.

Denard Span (2002) - excellent career, including several all-star quality seasons Chris Parmelee (2006) - AAAA player Ben Revere (2007) - decent MLB player who proved how empty batting average can be; terrible arm but good fielder Aaron Hicks (2008) - quality MLB player before injuries sapped his value Byron Buxton (2012) - all-star player, limited by injury Kirilloff (2016) - finally healthy and showing a good bat (limited defender) YMMV on how many have lived up to expectations; Span has by pretty much any measure, Parmelee did not. What were the expectations for Revere? Don't think he was ever pegged as a future all-star, but he was a useful player and netted us a quality reliever. It's unfortunate that Hicks didn't figure it out as a Twin, but that doesn't change the fact that he became a quality starter, well above average in NY. Buxton has actually been an all-star and played like one quite a bit, but the injuries have cost him both time and production: how much forgiveness do you have for injuries? Kirilloff was pegged as a potential all-star because of his bat, and he's finally starting to show that at the MLB level. But it's possible the wrist problems may prevent him from ever having as much power as he'd need to be an all-star. Still looks like a quality player when healthy. So that's the real question: how much to you put on injuries when weighing expectations? From a draft perspective, it's nigh-impossible to predict for the vast majority of players whether they will be healthy or not as pros. (not all the time: Canterino certainly had warning signs, etc) the last 3 of the HS outfielders on this list have all flashed the talent that made them first-round picks, but for all of them injuries have gotten in the way. I think it's fair to say it's really the only thing that's gotten in the way for all three of them. It's also notable that with the exception of Buxton, none of these guys were top 5 picks. Several were in the 20s, and outside of Buxton the next highest pick was at 14. Getting all six to MLB (and all of them made it to MLB with the Twins) does suggest that the talent evaluation and development process wasn't bad.

Disappointing game last night. Very frustrating to see Gray spiking a pitch like that and not being able to command the zone; the walks really hurt and he let Seattle into that game when he had them on the ropes. Ed Julien looks like the hitter we hoped he would be, which is terrific. But my goodness he's got a terrible arm. I haven't seen throws at 2B so bad since later period Chuck Knoblauch (who got banished to the OF for it) or when Steve Sax had the yips. And he's not exactly smooth in the field either. Oof. 6 runs should be enough to win the game with this pitching staff.

That might work in the playoffs, but you still also have to get there, and dropping Sonny Gray and replacing him with Varland/SWR/Headrick/Kuechel will almost certainly cost the Twins some games along the way as well.

Because the teams that might be trading for him are going for it this year. they're not going to give back anyone who is a significant MLB contributor. Dealing Gray nets you prospects. They might be very good prospects (YMMV on whether his injury history or poor stint with a contending NY team would reduce his perceived value on top of the fact that he's a two month rental; I don't think it matters nearly as much as his current performance, which has been all-star quality) but they're going to be prospects, not MLB players.

Which is why trading Gray is giving up on the season. the teams interested in acquiring him are going for it this season and sending back prospects. There might be some great ones in a package, even potentially one that steps in next season...but the odds of a deal doing anything to improve the MLB team this year are perishingly small.

By this argument, KC should have traded James Shields in 2014. He was a pending free agent, had a lot of value as a starting pitcher rental, and KC wasn't even leading their division at the trade deadline. Instead they hung on to him, made a run to the wild card, and ended up winning the World Series. I simply don't subscribe to the theory that in baseball if you don't have an obvious top 5 team you should throw away the season and go for assets. Baseball playoffs are weird, and in a short series anything can happen. Phillies finished 3rd in their division and made it all the way to the World Series last season; I doubt their fans would have traded that run for some value at the trade deadline. With Sonny Gray, the Twins have one of the best rotations in baseball. A great rotation is very dangerous in the playoffs, and the Twins also have an elite arm in the back of the 'pen in Duran. they've won season series against teams like NY and Houston that are a) competing for the playoffs, and b) have been in our heads. Trading Sonny Gray to avoid the risk of potentially "losing" him for nothing if he retires (which seems like a slim chance, considering the kind of money he's going to be offered) would be franchise malpractice. Dumping a season when the twins are competing for the division is an insult to the fans.

"I looooove winning, man! You know? Like, it beats losing?!?" Was hoping for a better/longer start from Ryan, but looks like the all-star break did him no favors either. All of our starters in this series looked a bit rusty. Got a bit wobbly at the end, but the bullpen got it done again. I'm thinking we don't see Duran for at least one game and probably two. Hopefully the starters get back to business and the offense makes it completely unneeded. Nice to see Kirilloff have a good game. I still think he's very talented and with as good a swing as anyone in the Twins organization, so it's good to see him carry the club today

Seem to be a lot of Twins hitters in Cedar Rapids with a good understanding of the strike zone these days. Like seeing Cossetti settling in on his promotion: only 6 hits in his first 10 games in high A; 11 in his last 10. 4 walks in his first 10, 6 walks in the last 10. Hopefully he starts to find that power stroke a little more, but he seems to be on track again, and it's good to see him playing plenty of catcher, even if he dropped in at 1B yesterday. I find him to be a really interesting prospect, the kind of guy who is unlikely to ever hit a national top prospect list, but one of those late round guys that if he can keep developing could be a real asset to the franchise. He's doing pretty much everything right so far!

Maeda is pitching himself out of the rotation with one bad start since coming off the IL? (the 3 previous were good) Is Lopez pitching himself out of the rotation too? Twins starters have been very good this season and starting pitching is going to be the most expensive thing at the trade deadline (see also, Mahle, Tyle). If you wanted to add Snell you'd have to give up big time assets, at least as much as we gave up for Mahle, frankly (Snell is pitching better and has a better track record, even as a 3 month rental). Seems like a bad investment. I'm surprised to see so much criticism of bullpen management after this game. Clearly, they're trying to keep for overdoing it on the guys who pitched back to back games, and with some injuries and lack of investment in the bullpen, they don't have have as many guys they trust in late and close situations right now. (4 relievers on the IL right now, and there's no question the Twins would have used Thielbar and Stewart in the last two games) But as a result, they got through it and pulled out 2 wins in 2 days, games they really needed to have. Feels like pretty good bullpen management to me. Now they need a good start from Ryan and a nice cushion of runs so Balazovic or someone can finish it off and give the rest of the 'pen the day off while we hopefully sweep the sorry, no-account A's and their dreadful owner (arguably the worst in sports).

You mean: leave it to the starters for not shutting down a bad team and going deeper into the games. I mean, come on: if you're blaming Rocco for using his entire bullpen to scape together back-to-back wins when neither starter was sharp then the dude isn't going to ever be able to do anything right. Correa is on a bit of a heater right now, and that's good to see. Hitting leadoff seems to be working for him (even if he's not fast). Hope this means he's locked in at the plate for a while and can super-charge this offense for a while. 11 hits and 7 walks certainly should be enough baserunners to pile up the runs. Bullpen has picked up the starters 2 games in a row; time for the starters to return the favor.

I was unaware that wins against KC and Oakland count for less than other wins in the standings. Interesting. 🤣 Maeda's velocity and movement were fine last night, but he just couldn't locate consistently and finish off hitters. Maybe he's one of those guys who gets rusty when they get extra time off? Nice work by the bullpen...with the exception of Duran, which has usually gone the other way. I'm not worried about him per se, but it would be nice to get a good stretch of clean innings again. I'm exhausted with the inconsistent strike zone this year, it just seems to be a constant refrain where you get these games where it sticks out like a sore thumb. Everyone had something to complain about last night so I guess it was "fair", but this is another game where it is objectively reasonable to talking about the strike zone and I'd much rather not be talking about the umpires at all.

Seems really doubtful that Julien is a solution to any of our production questions in the OF. Part of Julien's problem in the infield is his arm is terrible (poor strength and poor accuracy on throws) and that would be a problem for him in the OF too (he might become an average-ish defender in terms of range and catching flies, but people would run on him all day) I do think this FO struggles with sunk costs when it comes to under-performing veterans, especially in-season. They usually seem to want to give a player more time to turn it around and recoup some value. (there are exceptions, of course) And after last seasons collapse where they ran out of credible MLB players, especially in the OF because of injuries, I get the hedging (it's not like we have a clean sheet on injuries this season either). but at a certain point you end up hurting the team more and it's hard to keep acting like a player is going to turn things around or change. (I don't think the Twins are the only front office that struggles with this, especially smaller markets) I wasn't wild about signing Gallo, but a lot of it was about signing Gallo when we were keeping Kepler. Having both is increasingly problematic, because neither is hitting enough. Gallo's really fallen off after a hot start and his defense has been disappointing (though his versatility has been appreciated). Kepler's offense continues to be below par, and while his defensive value is greater than Gallo's right now, he's not a superior player out there any longer either. Gallo is probably the easier one to simply cut: he hasn't had a good month since the start of the season, he's adding less defensive value, he's in a deep slump, there's no obligation after this season, and he's got no track record with the team. (the other side of the ledger is he seems like a good clubhouse guy, he's shown willingness to play wherever asked, he had a couple of minor injuries which may have hampered his defense, and we'd be eating more money on his contract) But it seems hard to keep going to the Gallo well, unfortunately. Kepler shouldn't be safe, though. There's little to suggest that he'll improve; these 2 week bursts where he looks good have always been followed up with stretches of total ineptitude at the plate. He not bad defensively and still capable of making plays, but he's not looking like an elite player out in the field any longer, and he seems restricted to RF. But he's not going to be any real help on offense. He'll be lucky to finish the season with an OPS+ of 95, and it seems highly unlikely he'll reach 100, which is league average. 2019 was a fluke year. I think I would release Gallo now and give either Wallner or Larnach a real shot. I would hold Kepler to see if they could trade him for anything (even if it meant eating some salary, or getting nothing but an A-ball reliever), and try and keep him away from any lefty until the trade deadline. Maybe he's a throw-in on another deal from a team that wants a lefty bat who can play good D. but I have no expectations we'll get much for him (I do think he has at least some trade value or at least less negative trade value than Gallo at this point), and if he can't be dealt, then I'd think long and hard about cutting him too unless Waller/Larnach immediately flopped on recall. We need more offense, and Gallo and Kepler aren't getting it done.

That's probably a little bit of a challenge for some of these elite HS hitters: they could expand the zone and swing more and rack up more hits and HRs against that level of competition, but they also are trying to develop good habits and take walks, show they know the strike zone, etc. Winokur is an interesting player. Should be fun to watch him develop. With a bunch of HS kids entering the system I think it's going to be very interesting to see where the Twins place them in the minors and how fast they adjust and advance. (also how fast the franchise pushes them too; I don't think there's any clear pattern for them on how aggressive they are with younger players. Plenty of examples of them going slow on a guy as well as aggressive moves, so with a guy like Winokur he could be playing complex ball this year and be in low A next season...or he could do an extra season in the "rookie" leagues)

I'm always enthusiastic about pitching prospects with a deadly changeup. It's such a fun pitch. Interesting that the twins drafted him once and are returning there after college for him. I hope that means they know more about him than other clubs and are getting a steal!

That's more value to the franchise and its bottom line, not more value on the field.

I love the fact that he puts Target Field on for HitTrax. That's just kinda neat. I love Target Field and it's cool to hear a high school kid who has never been here throw a little love on it. He seems like another prospect who wants to work, wants to be coached, and has the drive to succeed. here's hoping for good health and success!

Really interesting prospect. Always a fair amount of risk with high school pitchers, but there's a lot to like about Soto and things that might mitigate the risk. Having a big fastball that isn't flat at his age is impressive. It seems really likely that he'll add weight and strength in the next couple of years that can hopefully help keep him strong and healthy (maybe even add velocity to an already impressive fastball?). It'll be really interesting to see how his command and control develops in the minors and what his pitch mix starts to look like as the Twins work with him. heavy fastball, circle change, and slider is a nice base to work from. I do think it's cool that he's already been coached by LaTroy Hawkins and has connections to players already in the system. Lot of potential with this kid, and he sounds like he has his head on straight.

For a college player, he's still on the the younger side, which might increase the upside potential here. Definitely some hitting talent here and he should be fun to watch.

Tough break for him. But you have to take some chances in the draft. And he could still work out, but this is a significant setback for him. Hopefully he can get his arm right and come back next season.

nice run on college pitchers right now for the Twins. No objections to them digging around in the college ranks to see who they can find that might take another step up with their coaching and program; they've had some nice results mining smaller programs too.

Yeah, I think the twins have a bunch of guys in the organization right now at the position, just not anyone that is a breakout guy or projects comfortably as a big-league starter. But there are several guys that might be able to hit their way up clustered in A/AA now. They're missing higher ceiling projection guys right now, which they're not finding late in the draft.

There were a couple of college pitchers left from KLaw's list that i liked, but we're getting in the territory where I've never heard of a lot of these guys, so gotta trust the scouting.