TheLeviathan
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Everything posted by TheLeviathan
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Please show me where I called them "great talent pitchers". I called them pitchers with some talent who are good buy-low options. Which, they were.
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Or instead of what I just posted on the evaluating TR thread, this says a lot of the same points. I agree, we're sellers without much to sell. Not where we'd like to be. -
When I posted that we were 7th, so apparently (and the standings show this too) it's a pretty fluid bottom 10. All the more reason to make sure we're closer to 1 than 10. I know it sounds bad to root for them to lose games, but if you're not in contention any way, then I'd rather have the higher pick. (Unless of course playing all the young guys yields success, in which case I'm cool with that too. As long as it's the young guys, not veterans who aren't part of the long term plan doing it) Agreed and I don't expect that. But the two investments in our rotation will likely not yield much at the deadline. One opportunity we clearly had was to say to a few guys "you've got a spot to prove yourself. It's all yours, but just know that opportunity comes with a risk of being dealt if you make good use of it". And while Correia has been better tahn expected, he hasn't been good enough to generate any value. The lack of trade-able assets isn't all on Ryan, but some of it surely is. A team like the Twins had the ability to offer playing time to veterans wanting to recoup value on the market and so far it looks like they've failed to take adavantage of that. Pelfrey could go on a 5-6 start run here but he's still Pelfrey and not liking to sway anyone out of a significant piece. As is the case with most of the guys on your list. I'm hoping they get something nice out of Fein and maybe out of Doumit, but otherwise I think extremely low expectations is probably the safest bet.
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Hicks' march toward the Mendoza
TheLeviathan replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I think we'll see him become a very fine hitter in time, but I am a bit concerned about his defense. When you watched Torii and Gomez early on you could see the ++ instincts, positioning, and ability. They just looked so smooth and natural out there. Hicks, by contrast, looks clunky and disjointed. He doesn't appear smooth, fluid, or particularly instinctual. Maybe it's nerves or the atmosphere at big league parks or trying to adjust to the larger stadiums where you're watching the ball through fans behind the plate moreso than in minor league parks....but I think it's fair to say he hasn't been impressive in CF. Certainly not what I had expected from scouting reports. -
The last month has certainly helped that cause. Kid can pick it at second too.
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Well, IMO - it should've been last year and then for the next two years as well. I think Deduno and Gibson have rotation spots for next year. I highly doubt Meyer or May are up before June. You'd hope Diamond is in the mix, but that's hardly a certainty. Ideally Correia and Pelfrey are both gone. I'll throw Worley in as a lock, but that still leaves two spots. I see no reason not to be aggressive in filling one of them with someone like Josh Johnson.
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None of this changes that you compared a 28 year old with a career ERA+ of 106, coming off a season where he had a 2.44 ERA in 60 innings with nearly a K/IP to Jeff Gray. You didn't compare him to Fien, you compared him to Jeff Gray. Then you compared a 25 year old Arrieta who was a top Orioles prospect just two years ago and an opening day starter to a 28 year old journeyman. Yes, Arrieta has struggled, but that still doesn't excuse that comparison. What they did in another trade is irrelevant. I'm talking about what the Cubs got for Feldman. They got two international slots and two buy-low guys with talent. I wish we could get that for one of our offseason pitcher signings.
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Except that I openly admitted that there isn't a good comp, just giving a closer one. Worley/Burton as a comp to Arrieta/Strop is about several infinity times more accurate than Walters/Gray. And I may be underselling how much better it is. Last I checked, the Twins didn't get two AAA flyers and money to sign two international specs. They sort of missed that other half. Why are we working so hard to confuse the value the Cubs got? The point is that we should strive to spin the same kind of trades: 1. Former opening day starter who was once among a team's top prospects but strugglingg. 2. A hard throwing reliever who had recent big league success but is struggling. 3. Money to sign one or several young international specs. And this is equivalent to Walters/Gray? That is a mind-blowing spin job right there.
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I should probably flag your post since it seems like you are daily misconstruing a fairly clear point, but I will explain: saying "odds" being "low" about5 what they "will do" is forecasting a future event, not declaring it won't happen. Given what we have to shop in light of their health/production paired with league need is what I cite for that forecast. I Hope they prove me wrong, I only stated given the situation, I doubt they do. if you wish to take umberance with that....by all means. BUt please at least try and treat the point fairly.
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Jake Arrieta isn't young for a spec, but he doesn't fit either of those. He was still a well thought of prospect within the last two years. And they got significant international money. There is no Twins equivalent, the closest would be Hendricks if you magically added a significant amount of talent to him. (Not to menton Strop is closer to a Jared Burton comp if you look at his 2012) The point of my comment was to elicit shock that a player like Feldman on a one year deal, generated this much while we look to have much less value to trade. There is a good chance we get nothing close to Arrieta much less the extra prospect cash.
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i wouldn't separate it either but it was the context. You have stated the big league roster was punted, which heavily implies that not a lot of effort was put to it. It didn't make sense to grade that well. My. Point is that 2013 should have been about the future....playing time for youth, signing and playing guys to use as trade value, and avoid treading water with a mediocre record. I'd argue only the first of those is even partially true. That disappoints me personally....it makes this season look like an utter waste for everything but our minors. And that seems wasteful in and of itself.
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I'm not talking about the minors. The minors are in great shape in part to Ryan and an excellent draft last year. So let's stay on topic here, part of the issue is people keep shifting to the minors when we focus on the majors and vice versa. We should all agree the minors are in great shape and Ryan has been a big part of that. So let's be done shifting the argument back and forth please. As for this season, the Cubs last week got more for their future for Scott Feldman than the Twins likely will for all their offseason investments the last two years combined. Read that again if it helps sink in. I wrote a long post, but suffice to say my expectations weren't lofty...I just didn't want the wheels spinning. That's what this season feels like.
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It's also only partially TR's work. If you pull Arcia, Rosario, Sano, and Kepler out of this, it's still a damn good farm, but not probably the best in baseball. Truth is, Ryan built a major league roster that has yielded only a few bright spots in the way of long-term positivity, virtually nothing of trade value, and a roster that is neither contending nor in line for a top 5 pick. Honestly, I can't imagine a scenario much worse at the beginning of July.
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Wow. I'm not sure whether to be happy or a bit depressed by that.
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I don't know....we are slugger starved. In general I agree, but a definitive answer would've been nice.
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Maybe but that's not what he said. I just pointed out that I hope fan reaction didnt sway that decision. I would contend Revere and Span were moved with Hicks in mind. Willy was kept because, at the time, there was no clear replacement. I could certainly be wrong but this answer hardly made things clear.
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Um....Buxton and Sano aren't trade commodities because Ryan would have to be drunk and deaf to trade them. There is no way either of those guys are shopped and nor should there be. If there is anything we know without question about Ryan it's that elite specs aren't moving at the deadline. The biggest issue with where this team stands is that it has nothing to shed for future value. Ryan constructed a team that is vaguely competing with no trade assets other than their young cheap closer. I call that a problem.
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I don't understand this line of thinking. If your point is that he successfully didnt upgrade them enough to be relevant.....I would argue he didn't sufficiently unload some players in that case. Burton, Hammer, Morneau, Doumit, even Diamond. If the point was to tank, this was a crappy roster for that too. they didn't move assets with value and then failed to invest enough to add guys as future assets as proven by our barren cupboard of deadline commodities. I'd argue they are exactly in that blundering nothingness at the deadline.
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Terry was very glib. I didn't like this: I hope it was the value offered and not concern about being criticized. I've long wondered if they were worried about public reaction to that move - part of the loyalty I speculated about earlier this week on that subject.
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How can you acknowledge punting the major league roster and not have at least a below average grade? Ryan's dumpster diving feeds into the bullpen perfectly, it's a great strategy and it has paid off repeatedly. But that isn't enough to offset the rest of the mistakes on this roster. Personally, I'd have given an A for Sanchez and Correia. Or Saunders, Marcum, and whomever. He also could have gone outside the box and tried to overpay a guy like Laroche, give him the DH at-bats (not Doumit) and hope he generates trade value. Lots of ways to skin a cat, not nearly as hopeless as some seem to think.
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You almost seem to start with the idea that doing what he did qualifies for a B because your starting point is a hopeless surrender or that a passive approach is acceptable even with enormous flexibility to spend. (You seem to throw away the idea that adding a legit #2 starter wouldn't be wildly successful in and of itself) So I'm not sure anyone is going to meet your criteria no matter what they suggest.
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Yeah, the explanation was something like "Well, he's not smart enough to be more than a C student unless he works really hard. So that he got Cs is to be expected" Well, sure. Unless he had worked harder to improve that product. Which he very well could have.
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Well, the problem is we don't look to need "one". We need maybe as many as three.
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Most MLB players start their careers between 22-24 years of age. With 6 years of team control, that would place the vast majority of players at 31 (roughly) in their third year of their FA deal. If anything, that's young, not old. If you think a 25 year old pitching stud is hitting the FA market and that's what you're waiting for, I'm going to caution you that it's virtually impossible. So that excuse for FA shopping is really quite invalid. Good pitching is difficult to find...period. There is no easy fix for good pitching. You have to draft and develop it. You have to trade for it. And you have to be willing to spend to get it. If we wait until 2014-15, what happens when the best starter on the market makes Anibal Sanchez look like Cy Young? And you waited all that time to blow your wad and the FA class is abysmal? Take for example that some on this board have been lecturing us that the 2012-2013 FA class was "bad" and that the Twins "should wait". Well, 2013-2014 looks no better and if as many elite players sign pre-FA (like Hamels and Cain) it will actually be significantly worse. 2014-2015 is a long way away to start nest-egging to spend. This isn't the NHL where you can just go spend a mega-ton of money one offseason and transform your team. FA works best in piecemeal....one thing at a time along with using the other avenues at your disposal.
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Im guessing drunken rambling thread material....
