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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    My point had been the "good bet" only appeared that way because the national perception of Milton Bradley hadn't quite caught on to him yet. The guy was a broken down clown - they would've been better off paying Carlos Silva in Taco Bell gift cards and calling it a day.
  2. TheLeviathan
    I would say the result justified my opinion - the guy was certifiably nuts and on the downside with his knees. Carlos Silva actually managed a halfway decent season for the Cubs too! I'd wager he managed a near historic consumption of deep dish pizza too.
  3. TheLeviathan
    Buck would be a solid catching option. That would help me feel slightly better about that position next year.
  4. TheLeviathan
    In sentiment we agree, I think my bar is a bit lower. If Sano comes up and looks like what we all want him to be, Buxton takes that next step that we can anticipate a 2015 debut, and the team flirts with .500 - I look to be aggressive. But reasonable people can disagree about timing, there are good arguments either way. The whole "surplus value" thing is utterly meaningless to me once we've concentrated on the things that matter.
  5. TheLeviathan
    Except that the year that netted the Nats a nice package for Morse was a career year followed by a good year with injuries. Willingham had a career year and then a garbage year. If this was last offseason, I'd agree with you because that was a career year for Willingham too. He should've been dealt then, but he wasn't so we have to deal with the value as it is. Not as we want it to be. Their park plays poorly to right-handed power hitters. They tried with Morse and it failed, I'd assume they learned something from that. Willingham is not a rare commodity, not at his age and with his health issues. You're way overplaying his value.
  6. TheLeviathan
    Ah, didn't see the labrum thing. The ankle thing I was less worried about. I just thought it was an interesting idea since he's being shopped around.
  7. TheLeviathan
    I'm not arguing the Twins should acquire Price. I think next year is probably the right time for that big move. Maybe two years, we'll see how Sano comes along. But you're using specific examples of timing (a valid point) whereas the issue with that post is it is a general statement that overinflates prospect value. If the Tigers had worried about surplus value over timing, they'd have never made that deal.
  8. TheLeviathan
    Quick...someone go back a few years and tell the 2nd place 2007 Tigers how stupid they're about to be by giving up all that "surplus value" for Miguel Cabrera!!!!!!! Kab's right, our excitement about our farm is totally distorting our ability to think about prospect value in a rational manner. Brock - you're right, but your reasoning is about timing. Not about the idea of surplus value and using that concept to over-inflate a prospect's value.
  9. TheLeviathan
    Here's a crazy idea.....if the cost was Rosario and Berrios (just a hypothetical, no reasoning other than to put two names out there) and the Dodgers agreed to pony up 50M..... Would you take a gamble on Kemp? Imagine an outfield with Kemp, Buxton, and Hicks with Arcia mercifully moved to DH?
  10. TheLeviathan
    The problem is that it muddles the conversation and gets us into Oliver projections. All prospects have the same dollar attachment to them. So in the end it really comes back to your projection of them as a major league player. Teams that deal established talent for prospects do so because of financial restraints, so the relevant issues are - what are the finances for the team, what is the team's objective, how do the prospects project. Surplus value just deflects into irrelevant tangents. This is not a "rare commodity". If it was - Willingham would have long been dealt. 34 year olds who have a history of health issues, can't field, and aren't having career years do not possess a lot of value. You seem to think the only place to find these type of players is on rebuilders, but teams calling up prospects also move these players. Take Aoki last week. Jason Kubel is available and would fit their park better. Same with David Murphy. They could sign Choo. Corey Hart. Logan Morrison is available. Lucas Duda. I could go on and on. Plodding, position-less, aging players are not exactly a rare or premium quantity people are knocking down doors to get.
  11. TheLeviathan
    So in one thread we say Meyer = Price but in another we scoff at Taylor = Mauer. This surplus value argument is all over the place. Part of why it's irrelevant to trade talks is because its dependent upon a teams plan and wholly dependent on the players progress. So it's basically an irrelevant sidebar to analysis of a players ability to play major league ball. That's the real key. The discussion of Willingham is also flawed because it's totally predicated on comparing him to available free agents rather than available trade targets as well. The whole argument is meant to suggest Willingham is among only a few options available when that a) isn't true and would never fly with a real GM. They may indeed have interest (they shouldn't for the record) but it won't be because its only Cruz or Hammer.
  12. TheLeviathan
    This much I agree with. If and when we go for an ace it needs to better align with Sano and Buxton, but I would never hesitate to land a top flight talent because of a possible surplus value. As I said earlier, that concept of value isn't the relevant question.
  13. TheLeviathan
    All depends on your favorite form of gambling I suppose. As for your surplus value point, I'm not sure it's really important compared to actual value to the baseball team. Especially not in a situation like the Twins have where they can afford not to worry about money for the forseeable future.
  14. TheLeviathan
    Because they are an example of how good the guy is. Price is a legit ace. Take any measure you want, he's been a legit major league ace. Meyer has not. He might be, but he hasn't been yet.
  15. TheLeviathan
    Not sure it matters, but I do think he will continue to be an ace for a long time.
  16. TheLeviathan
    Is it looked on as favorably as, say, winning a Cy Young in the major leagues? You overlooked my point completely.
  17. TheLeviathan
    I'd love Franklin or Miller - Franklin might force us to consider moving Dozier back to SS, which is a good thing IMO. Franklin graded out well by the defensive metrics also. If the leadership incompetence in Seattle is as profound as the article posted today indicates, this could be a great idea.
  18. TheLeviathan
    Well there is the problem. If just over 50% is a "good" bet in your eyes, we have different ideas of what constitutes a "good bet". Of course you would. And if Price were a Twin and the Rays came at us with only Alex Meyer - you'd scoff (rightly) at the idea. And the reason is because Price is far more valuable because he's established he can be a dominant starter in the majors. Meyer has only showed promise that he might. Right now it doesn't make sense to trade for Price because it won't cost only Meyer and the Twins are stingy about contract extensions. The question isn't "who is more valuable?" (In a one to one comparison, it's Price and it's laughable to suggest otherwise), it's "why now?" And the answer is that there is no good reason to do it now - not with those factors listed above. So you wait and hope Meyer becomes your own version of Price. And, if the gods be good to us Twins fans and it happens, you never seriously consider the idea that a guy who hasn't pitched over AA yet could be more valuable than your Cy Young winner.
  19. TheLeviathan
    Yeah, guy used to be able to do no wrong. I remember on BYTO I lit up a long thread questioning the Milton Bradley move and people rushed to defend it. If this article is accurate, the guy is a clown.
  20. TheLeviathan
    Right, but as you pointed out - Meyer isn't a super elite SP prospect and he's never thrown a pitch in the majors. He's still got a significant chance of busting. So to suggest Meyer might be as "valuable" is putting the cart way before the horse. Afterall, if that sort of valuation was true, teams would flip their aces in a 1 for 1 deal for prospects all the time.
  21. TheLeviathan
    I think every sane GM on the planet with the ability to pay the price would gladly pay that difference to have an ace over a hopeful. The price tag, by its very nature, represents the value of a talented performer like Price. This conversation has descended into some really bizarre notions of value.
  22. TheLeviathan
    A "good bet"? Meyer hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors yet and Price is a Cy Young winner. No, that isn't a good bet no matter what price tag Price comes with. That doesn't mean you go out and make that deal, but cmon.
  23. TheLeviathan
    If we're going to speculate we should at least speculate about the types of players Oakland looks for: young hitters with good walk rates and older, near-ready pitchers. Guys like Thorpe and Willingham just aren't going to be feasible options.
  24. TheLeviathan
    Another way to chew on this: for two million more for the next seven years the M's bought themselves a vastly superior player. Ellsbury is basically a 100 OPS+ player if you don't count whatever that bizarre 2011 was. Every other season he has been roughly at 100. Cano is consistently at 125 OPS+ or better. By the time year 8 rolls around it may not matter how bad Cano is he'll still be a much better investment.
  25. TheLeviathan
    I think Harrison would have high value to Oakland moreso than other teams. He'd have more value than Willingham for sure. Harrison and a bullpen arm or another spec is more likely to me than tossing them a player they already didn't want to keep recently. that move only makes sense due to position, but nothing else about Hammer makes sense.
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