TheLeviathan
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Everything posted by TheLeviathan
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The Twins seem to have cornered the market on innings eaters that don't eat innings. That's been a trend for a long time now. Good pitchers eat innings, not 5th starter castoffs.
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Right now Hicks' bat is barely playable anywhere much less a corner OF spot, but if we do think he'll "bring more", the question would have to be answered about "how much more?" Right now he's awful....so he'll be decent? Maybe. I'm inclined to believe that simply because in the corners he won't have to turn his back on as many balls hit his way. I'm hesitant, however, because we heard this guy was a slick fielder for his minor league tenure and he's been dreadful so far. That makes it hard to count on a lot of improvement moving to a corner.
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I didn't pronounce forever, I said they've shown nothing thus far to base a future prediction of "good" on them. All they've shown is reasons to worry, not hope.
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..... You realize that's only switching one guy right? Yes, this year we're trotting out components that aren't part of the future, but Arcia and Hicks have shown absolutely nothing defensively to be excited about. I also find it a bit odd to call Hicks a "patch" and not part of the build. The bigger issue has been the guys that are part of the build that aren't living up to expectations. Particularly Hicks and his continuing circus act in CF.
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Well played then, when you doubled down on it I thought for sure you were being serious. No reason to talk extension at all right now. You do that at the end of the season if you still find it prudent. On May 19th? No, that just doesn't make sense.
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How about not looking to dump him now (it's May, we have over two more months to make the decision to "sell high" if that even still exists then) but if we're grading things on a scale of what's more rational: it's WAY more rational to be talking trade right now than an extension. There is just zero good reason to be considering that right now.
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This may be illuminating to your position in this thread.
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Totally understandable, but many things felt aren't falsifiable. That standard would render almost any expression or experience of emotion dubious. Bit too skeptical for my liking, even as a practicing skeptic. The problem with most any supernatural question is evidence, but that has never made much sense to me either. Why would we expect evidence in this world for something that definitionaly is not part of this world? I think we try to drag a metaphysical quandary into the physical world and it just doesn't fit. Though, I suppose doing that does give us hours of entertainment watching clowns on TV act like they discovered the meaning of life for seeing an orb on their camera.
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No, without belaboring the house schematics that would not have been possible. There may be some kind of explanation (more likely she thought she heard what she did and a cat opened the door) but it's hard to believe that given how much it shook her. Hell, she still refuses to be there alone. Of my immediate family of six, all but two of us had some kind of experience. Beyond that my wife stayed there alone one night (before any knowledge of supernatural experiences with the fam) and was woken in the middle of the night by the TV coming on and then the VCR and then a tape being sucked in. By the time the FBI warning flashed she was in hysterics with me on the phone. Still hard for me to swallow all of the things I've heard given no experiences growing up there.
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So yeah, again another example today of this. He turns his back (and there was a stiff breeze, no doubt) and he's completely turned around on a ball again. The kid needs to be in AAA. He's doing some things well and should be encouraged by that, but his game isn't getting refined in the big leagues right now. -
Article: The Rising Cost of Brian Dozier
TheLeviathan replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Thrylos is spot on. If Seth's numbers are close (I believe they are) the opportune time to extend him would be after next season. That gives you substantial performance to judge from and still ample opportunity to buy out free agency years in exchange for certainty for Dozier. The small amount of money in the long run that this may cost you is more than made up for in being wise to wait to see how real this start is before investing. -
It tempers predictions. Like, for example, when every fan board thinks they improve by 5-10 games for the next year. We know this won't happen and we can identify the culprits most likely to not fulfill this. If the usefulness of projections and analysis is limited by being 100% accurate - someone should let Parker and every other baseball commentator know they're wasting their time. It's a rather unfair bar to hold anything to. The funny thing is we hear these kinds of objections when there is pessimism about the favored player/club. But if someone were to post the same projections that say we can expect better from Nolasco, Mauer, and probably Perkins? Well, hell, regression to the mean is awesome then!
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Article: The Rising Cost of Brian Dozier
TheLeviathan replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The record for a first year was Ryan Howard at 10M (Morneau at 4.5M had been the previous high) and he got that for hitting 50 homeruns and driving in 140 runs. Dozier is looking at a couple million tops, which has really no bearing at all for the club in the immediate future. It would be seriously jumping the gun to lock him up out of fear that he hits well enough to earn 4-5M for next year. -
Did Diamond suddenly become a turd overnight? Colabello's deal with the devil expired at midnight on April 23rd? The myth is that you can identify the trends any better than a projection system - even one that functions like a caveman club. Parker, who is an excellent analyst of baseball, had two blogs earlier this year detailing the successes of Kubel and Colabello. He identified things that had changed that would indicate why they were being successful. They still succumbed to regression. There are few that don't over time and it's a valuable lesson for fans to keep in mind. (Sometimes, it's also a very good thing! Nudge Nudge to Mauer right now)
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The fact that projections are accurate in the aggregate is informing. In sports, fans like to believe their guy is the outlier because he changed his approach, he's a new player, he's "fill in token optimism here!" In reality, most players DO regress to the mean over time. There will be outliers who establish new performance standards, but they are just that - outliers. We can all hope that Dozier is an outlier like Jose Bautista was. But for every Dozier there are a dozen Colabellos or Diamonds. Their practical use is in tempering expectations by overzealous fans.
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All depends how you want to view a spiritual world I suppose. The devil is in the details and the definitions. For myself, I'm often amused by how quickly people want to laugh off or dismiss such a notion and yet across many cultures throughout human history this notion has persisted. Most interesting to me, it's happened with and without notions of deities. To this story, if I'm remembering correctly, for her it was a challenge to both.
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Article: The Rising Cost of Brian Dozier
TheLeviathan replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
As Mike Trout showed, his arbitration figure is hardly going to reflect his performance value. That's far from a factor in whether you extend him or not. -
Dismissing a projection because it isn't Nostradamus is as silly as putting total faith in it.
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Eduardo Escobar XBH: 13 in 87 PA Joe Mauer XBH: 6 in 165 PA
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Best place to sit at Target Field with a young child?
TheLeviathan replied to zenser's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
This is correct, but getting out can be a real chore with little ones. If you can sit in your seat awhile longer and relax there, it's probably the way to go. Otherwise you're packed in like sardines from the moment you leave the stadium until you get to your destination. For couples or single people it's no bother to head out right away, but I would suggest patience if you have some little ones. -
Article: How Do You Like Chris Parmelee Now?
TheLeviathan replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've never got off the bandwagon with this guy and I really hope he proves he's ready to be part of the future this year. Love the adjustment they made so that he can drive the ball better. The results so far are very encouraging. Also, and this is off topic, but my goodness did that Anthony quote about taking too many first pitches just drive me up the wall. Parmelee needed to drive the ball more, but what Anthony said about him basically applies to our star player more than anyone else. (And I don't even agree totally with that criticism for Mauer either, just a poor way to phrase that criticism on every level) -
And that argument has nothing to do with performance and everything to do with the team and how it structures itself. The Twins boxed themselves in with signing both guys, that's the problem.
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Norris trophies are largely driven by offensive production, not defensive prowess. He's been waning for years in addition to not being able to stay on the ice.
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One who has played a grand total 110ish games in the last three years and has become a minus player who most people recognize as a defensive liability.
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Doughty? The only thing they they have in common is their position. And Letang is a d-man in name only. He's a total liability. Going rate these days ain't what it used to be.
