TheLeviathan
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Everything posted by TheLeviathan
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Yeah, you can definitely tell what they're doing is hated by everyone and it's a complete lost cause to look at them as potentially having hit on something baseball has lost...... This post is giving up perfect vibes of this classic:
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Life guaratees almost nothing. But doing nothing? That will guarantee lost value.- 86 replies
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- jhoan duran
- griffin jax
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Well first off...."other than Lopez and Ryan" is one hell of a caveat. Selling got us our best pitcher and making a wise trade of Arraez got us our second best one. I mean....that's the argument right there. Sure, you misfire on guys like SWR and Martin. That trade didn't work out. You know what else is true? We'd still be sitting here in 2025 with no Berrios. Whether those guys don't contribute because they're never here, or weren't very good doesn't change that Berrios wasn't staying. The alternative is really simple: if you want to do nothing, then you will add nothing to your chances going forward. I assure you when the door closes on the 2027 season, we won't be bringing back Ober, Ryan, and Lopez. Or Jax and Duran. Some of them will be gone one way or the other. The question is when do you move the ones you don't plan to retain. Right now is when that conversation should be happening rather than when it's too late.
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Randballs Stu has psuedonyms now?
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I like the Ewing target. What about Ryan Clifford? Fangraphs has him at 12 and MLB had him at 6. Big lefty swinger.
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What could change is having more talent for some future season. Talent is the issue. The Twins have a simple choice at this point: do nothing and have absolutely zero chance of having more talent in the years to come.....or sell and at least give yourself a half dozen young guys who might help a future team. I'm not sure why any Twins fan would pick option 1.
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Man I hope this gets the FO rolling on a selloff.
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To draw your conclusion you have used an artificially narrow line of testing. That testing, as you constructed it, woupd lead to a 100% failure rate when applied to any team and any process. Including "Be the Dodgers and have a gazillion dollars" If your test yields a demonstrably flawed coclusion of total, 100% failure....the test is flawed.
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I was thinking to buy out 2 arb years with 3 more after it. Crochet had (I think) 1 year of arb. bought out by the Red Sox with a 6 year, 170M contract. So, spitballing.....5 years $130 million?
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- jaime garcia
- joe ryan
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I would like to keep Ryan. If they can give him a 5 year extension...count me in. But if he's going to hit free agency in two years? Then we have to have the conversation on moving him.
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One thing I think worth pointing out, that rarely happens in these situations, is that if the Twins had been doing what is recommended here.....we may not be having this very conversation right now. 2021 the Twins were 73-89 and decided not to trade Sano, Polanco, Donaldson, Garver, Colume, Theilbar, or Duffy at the deadline. They did move Happ, Cruz, and Berrios. Half-assing that deadline cost the team potential talent that could be supplementing the roster right now! Even if two guys from the trade hauls of those players had manifested we might be buyers rather than sellers. (And if...by some terrible luck we had gotten NOTHING from those deals....we'd still be no worse off!) That's the missed opportunity. So much lost value and opportunity for guys that provided virtually nothing in the years ahead. We clutched them so tightly and we're paying the bills now.
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I'm not sure this is coherent, but if you want to tell me the Twins can get a top 50 prospect for Jax or Duran....I'm all ears. That's just leveraging value.
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If we want to add in the ability to be fortune tellers....Manzardo being a replacement level player is a cheaper upgrade over what Civale has provided. 0 is still better than -1. But the pedestal is there because that's the process that has a chance to work. The fact it isn't working right now a year and a half later doesn't necessarily make it the wrong one. They got good value in those moves. Ultimately, they dealt a starter taht was having a good year but with an iffy track record (who wound up mostly being terrible since the trade) for a top 50 prospect. I'll take that process all day long. I'll put it in real terms....if the Cubs offered Owen Caisse for Bailey Ober....I take that trade. I'd take Luke Keaschall for Bailey Ober right now. I have no problem with that pedestal.
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I mean....part of the reason for doing the trade is adding years to your return. The exact issue with the Twins strategy is that you take a finite resource and deliberately put an expiration date on it rather than extending it. I don't need that return/resource to have an immediate impact to justify the decision. Lane Thomas turning into a pumpkin or Kyle Manzardo not being an instant-impact rookie doesn't defeat the purpose of the move. The purpose was to keep expanding your available opportunities to have young, controllable resources at your disposal rather than watching them walk for nothing. You don't stop churning the waters for fish because the first net came up empty. All anyone is advocating for is to keep throwing in nets rather than rolling them up and hoping they jump in your boat themselves.
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You are closing the book on a trade based on the production of a 24 year old over 1.5 seasons. So yeah...the Ryan example is terrible. That's the point. Picking any single time period to judge it, with a narrow lense, will result in making terrible arguments. That's exactly my issue with your argument. So yeah, I don't agree at all that they have to always be immediate. I think that kind of rigidity...applied to any process or strategy....will lead to conclusions that your strategy is doomed. Nothing is guaranteed to always show immediate results and cherry picking 1.5 seasons of a young player is going to lead to a lot of catastrophically silly conclusions made prematurely.
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Because retooling isn't necessarily about immediate gains? It's not like if we sell pieces in 2025 and they don't immediately cash in 2026 that means the moves were the wrong ones. If Manzardo never becomes more than he is today (as a rookie being a slightly plus offensive player and minus defensive player) than it didn't cash out as much as hoped when you made the deal. But it's not a bad deal.....because the guy they gave up in Civale is sub-replacement level now and has been for much of the last two years as well. You can't judge the move in a short-sighted manner because the process behind it is quite literally the opposite. In 2023 someone could've made the same argument about Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan after he settled in at 1.5 WAR. How'd that deal end up in the end?
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You're right, 24 year olds should be full fledged Hall of Famers or they're trash. I guess? I think I'm meeting you at your level here.
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Manzardo is 24 and has a 102 OPS+ Can I sign up for that version of "absolutely nothing" for the Twins please?
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Oh great! I see that we're once again limiting our conversations about the best path forward by "what will win a World Series". Putting aside that the World Series is a small sample size gauntlet (complete with all the whackiness of any small sample) unlike the other major sports.....the primary similarity all World Series winners have had for the last 30 years? Money. Lots of money. So unless you have a plan to explode the population of Minneapolis to LA levels and secure a decade long, mega-bucks TV deal for that new population......maybe sit this one out if you're stuck on WS wins. That measure (if it's even a good measure at all for a successful baseball team) shouldn't lead you to have any conversations about team talent. That measure gets decided by money. But if that's your focus, it damn sure shouldn't lead you to conclude that we should be clutching to Chris Paddack or Danny Columbe like they're your woobie.
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Twins TV Broadcast Being Shopped to ESPN, Peacock, AppleTV
TheLeviathan replied to Vanimal46's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I hope this doesn't happen. MLB needs to stop piecemealing their broadcasting by market. It's the root of so many problems the league has. -
It's pretty simple folks: Until MLB has the fight with the union (and the big market owners) to fix the game's finances......the Twins are going to have to rely on cheap, controllable talent to have a shot at winning. A new ownership group (which hopefully happens just to finally end the nonsense, banal style of the Pohlads) will not change this. So.....a team like the Twins needs to trade Castro, Paddack, Columbe, Stewart, and be open to bigger conversations to keep the churn of young talent alive. I wouldn't be selling Ryan yet, but I would be looking at Lopez in the offseason. I would be fielding calls to deal Duran or Jax. That's the necessary path in this economic world of baseball. If you do nothing......then you will continue to reap the rewards of your inaction. You'll win nothing. Not fan support. Not baseball games. Just spinning your wheels to nothing.
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One way you develop surpluses is by not pretending you are a contender and letting assets walk for nothing. The Twins, for decades now, have been content to be stagnant. This is a clear, shining moment to change that.
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I don't disagree, it was probably 90% me hoping and not an actual prediction. But seriously....send Kiersey down, DFA France, and call up someone that might actually be useful like Austin Martin.
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You apparently didn't read the article. The Twins absolutely have at least two coveted players who could land tremendous hauls and several lesser assets that are still valuable. It is incompetent to think a contending team is going to remove someone from their every day lineup to trade for their bullpen. That's counter-productive. If they are demanding that in trades....they are absolutely incompetent. Targeting AAA players or AA players needing to graduate is the way. This team doesn't have enough talent to win in the next few years without it.
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I really wish Ev the best. The guy clearly has some serious mental health issues. I hope he's getting the help he needs.
