Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

TheLeviathan

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    21,007

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    47

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    Right, but these are things you consider when you are debating where the line for "too great" comes in. They aren't really separate.
  2. TheLeviathan
    Right, Gibson has a good chance to be reliably above average. If you deal him you're willingly agreeing to rely more on Tommy Milone and a very young starter like Berrios to avoid your rotation falling apart. Now maybe you agree to take that risk in order to upgrade another position, but it is a risk.
  3. TheLeviathan
    We're a bad road team playing tough ball clubs. /thread
  4. TheLeviathan
    I don't know what you're arguing for? Tulo or failure?
  5. TheLeviathan
    Good post earlier tobi. The myth of deadline deals and going all-in to win is one of strongest delusions in sports. It's not only ineffective, it's often counter productive in both the short and long term. Middle deals at the deadline and splash in the offseason. That's what actually works.
  6. TheLeviathan
    I don't know how you keep going off the rails here, but I never excluded his June ERA. I didn't look at monthly ERAs - I looked at monthly peripherals. I excluded April on the basis of those, not his ERA. Even with that poor ERA in June, he's still been above average - as have many of his key peripherals. The only one that isn't is K/9 but that just isn't ever going to be his style. Everything else has trended very well the last three months.
  7. TheLeviathan
    Yes, let's continue to use ERA. I'm evaluating Gibson based on consistent peripherals since May and the results those have yielded: an above average major league starter. And yes, that includes one month where his ERA wasn't sterling. I cited ERA as a stat that helps show his success, but there are others. In fact, I'd argue, many of the best pitching stats for evaluation would show that success if we omitted April. Alas, Fangraphs doesn't allow me to go just from May until now.
  8. TheLeviathan
    Except his peripherals in June were similar to May and July, his peripherals in April don't even look like the same player.
  9. TheLeviathan
    No equation was set up, please see the point for what it was, not what allows you to make a strawman. Young players have to be watched in smaller samples by the nature of being new to the league. We may be seeing the best we'll see from Gibson, but if he can maintain this it's an above average starting pitcher. That's what I see the last three months and is the most relevant for evaluating his future.
  10. TheLeviathan
    43rd in xFIP, 27th in ERA, 35th in soft contact - and all of that is with his god awful April dragging him down. Since May he's been well above average.
  11. TheLeviathan
    With any young player, isn't the most recent, consistent data the most relevant? Do we hold 2012 against Dozier or worry more about the player he is today?
  12. TheLeviathan
    1) He is currently above average by a decent margin. So this is already wrong. 2) "most pitchers are who they are" is deliberately holding something against him that wasn't within his control. It's far more relevant to analyze how he has developed since his debut.
  13. TheLeviathan
    No, you seem to be misunderstanding that I want to place Gibson at anywhere near the level of Tulowitski. Tulowitski has been and is an elite player. Gibson appears to be trending towards an above average starter. (Minus his May he's a top 30 picher in all of baseball in xFIP, ERA, and a variety of other meaningful statistics. And even with his bad May he's a in the top 50 in many of these - making him a solidly entrenched #2 starter by many measures) I just believe it's fair that if you're going to evaluate Gibson's value now and in the future that it's worthwhile to note he's been a far better pitcher the last three months than his cumulative numbers would indicate. Much like it's fair for you to point out that any trend downward by Tulo is largely just a one month blip rather than a substantive decline.
  14. TheLeviathan
    By all means use his age against him, that's a fair argument for why dealing him now may be prudent. It's just not relevant to this. It's also a fair argument to say that his May is an outlier that is significantly dragging down his yearly cumulative stats. The problem is that you're justifying the omission of Tulo's worst month based on his career history (justifiable) but refusing to acknowledge the omission of Gibson's worst month based on his continued development as a player. (also justifiable)
  15. TheLeviathan
    He can't control when he was brought up, I would imagine he (like many of us) thought he should've come up sooner. So let's stop using his age against him, that isn't what it's about. Young (read: new to the league) players grow and adapt all the time and positive steps of development should be noted and appreciated as they become consistent. Gibson, like many before him, has worked to make himself better against MLB competition and seems to have found a pretty consistent niche the last three months. Insisting on including a month that stands out as a pretty significant outlier in order to make your point seems more than a bit disingenuous.
  16. TheLeviathan
    Thing is - I don't disagree with your point about Tulo, that month appears to be an outlier that is unfairly making it look like a dip post-injury. Just like looking at the last three months of Gibson (which have been very similar in production) is a much more fair way of analyzing his performance as well. What is fair for the goose, should be fair for the gander.
  17. TheLeviathan
    I love the "Let's conveniently forget a guy's worst month" game! Do we get to play it with Gibson too?
  18. TheLeviathan
    I guess I didn't realize that in order to participate in the trade deadline one HAD to make a blockbuster involving major prospects and elite talents. Shame, figured there might be some competent, helpful players out there that could also be acquired. Oh well......
  19. TheLeviathan
    It's not that it's gospel, just pointing out that it's unlikely they will turn the job over to him full-time given their choices this season. They just seem, for whatever reason, dead set against it. I personally think it's a bit bizarre.
  20. TheLeviathan
    I guess I'm wondering on your basis for that? The trend curves aren't perfect and not everyone will decline. Tulo might well be a productive offensive and defensive player for the rest of his contract, but the aging curves do indicate that into their 30s declining play is just part of the expectation for most players. I think, in the case of Tulo, it might have extra weight given the fragile nature of his last few seasons. Maybe those were just flukes, but to me they are heavy indicators of risk. Not enough for me to write off trading for him, but serious enough to heavily weigh on the decision.
  21. TheLeviathan
    No one said it is a trend, nor need it be a trend specifically to him to make the point. All players decline as they age and we have various statistical models that show us when and how much based on age and position. We should EXPECT that this would be happening soon unless he is an outlier. Could Tulowitski reverse and go back to his earlier numbers? Sure, he might be an aging outlier, but let's not pretend we need to have several years of declining numbers on his part to assign some risk.
  22. TheLeviathan
    I agree, continuing to play Santana is not wise. I'd like to see Escobar or even Polanco at this point. I've said I'm not opposed to Tulo (especially if we're not trading anyone currently contributing) but his injury history and declining defense are pretty much right in line with SS aging curves. And that curve is one of the most precipitous of them all. That really makes me hesitate. But for the right deal? (Berrios+Kepler+?) I could probably get on board. It's just tremendously more risky than some are trying to pitch.
  23. TheLeviathan
    Wait..so your contention is that those are our only options? The hell if I know what is all out there or not out there on the market, but I know this fallacious dilemma is just ridiculous.
  24. TheLeviathan
    That's great that he's accumulated WAR as a part-time player three of the last four years, that not's the point. The point is that his declining defensive stats and age make it unlikely that continues and very likely that injuries continue to hamper his on-field contributions. And since our choices at SS don't necessarily have to be limited to Escobar, Santana, and Tulowitski....it is a false dilemma you're arguing.
  25. TheLeviathan
    You're creating a false dilemma to further fall into this trap. Tulo isn't the only way we could improve SS, so I'm not biting on the false dilemma. WAR seems to be a really poor way to measure that effect of injury. The truth is that his defense, by the metrics, looks to have sharply declined. His recent injury history is a serious red flag. The normal aging curves for shortstops tells us that what we're seeing is typical at this age and likely to get much worse relatively quickly.
×
×
  • Create New...