kab21
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Everything posted by kab21
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I don't have as much hope as the rest of you with Arcia's defensive improvement but possibly he can become Cuddyer-esque bad. Cuddyer didn't cover a lot of ground but he played fairly smart. Delmon on the other hand was a comical mess kind of bad. I do have a lot of faith in Arcia's offensive upside. He has some crazy skills if he command the K zone at all. Miller for Arcia is intriguing though. He struggled last year but I'm buying. The problem is that something significant would have to be added to make the deal work though.
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I would say one of the worst run orgs but not cheap. They love spending money on players that are ready for a massive decline.
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A Possible Budget Dilemma the Twins May Face
kab21 replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I would be very happy if the Twins have a >90M payroll next season. I would also be happy if they onlyl signed 1-2 guys in FA instead of spreading the dollars around. Brandon McCarthy had a strange year. His velocity jumped 2+mph and overall he put up a Hughes type stat line. Not sure what to make of it but he could be a relative bargain in FA while others chase bigger names. I would rather have McCarthy than Shields based on the expected contract costs. -
This is the first indication that teams will have more money than they can spend this winter. The money really isn't a problem but rather the direction that the Mets are going. Seems like a last gasp attempt for an older team to stay .500.
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It only takes one team to sign a FA but I really thought Cuddyer would have no chance at signing with a non-Rockies team.
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At least a few people like having depth on the team. If Santana is the starter then Escobar will still play since he backs up 3 positions. Players don't stay healthy and they all need a day here and there. It's a good problem to have. Escobar still carries very little trade value additionally. I would be shocked if other teams viewed him as anything but a good utility player despite his nice season. This isn't a case of trading to fix a problem elsewhere. It would be a case of trading for depth elsewhere. I think people are prematurely penciling Sano in a 3B. My odds are well below 50% that he plays >150 games at 3B in the majors. Because of that I wouldn't consider trading Plouffe until Sano actually is ready (if ever) to take over at 3B. My guess is that Sano ends up in the OF for a few seasons before heading to 1B.
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I'm not exactly saying that those 4 should accept the QO. I'm saying that they should prepare to be ignored in FA if they do. Predicting what teams will be interested in certain players is an inexact science but 35ish yr old DH's have a limited market. Cruz and VMart had a better season than 2013 Kendrys but it also looks like an outlier (unexpectedly good) and they are old and injury prone. There won't be a line outside their agent's door. Same goes for a 32 yr old catcher that had a career season. It only takes one team to say 'that's our guy' and sign one of them but not all of these guys will have that team. Santana might have floated a 100M number but it doesn't mean anything. Nolasco floated a 80M number and he signed almost immediately for 50ish. Santana's problem was that there were only X number of teams that would sign a 30+ inconsistent starter for 4+ seasons and give up a draft pick. That's the problem that Liriano (and even Santana) will face this year. Shields, Santana and Liriano form a 2nd tier of FA's and there are going to be limited teams that are shelling out 50-80M for a 30+ SP and give up a draft pick.
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How has it been overlooked? He is a part of the org and Molitor can chat with him as much as he wants. It's just a bad idea to put a longtime former Twins manager anywhere in the managing hierarchy. Molitor has to clearly be The Man.
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Some players are just made of glass. He has missed 140 games in the last two seasons. Before that he missed 20-30 games/yr. After 5 seasons of injuries it's time to call him injury prone. He is a helluva player though. At a different point in the rebuild (or if he was available for 2nd tier prospects) I would be interested in the trade also.
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So basically he should keep doing what he is doing?
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I think it's a terrible idea. There should never be the question that it's Molitor's team and he's the manager. Molitor will have growing pains but I think doing something like this undercuts his authority. Glynn has managing experience but he would clearly be under Molitor in the hierarchy.
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It should be the other way around since Ethier makes more money/season. I could handle this but Ethier isn't very interesting as a player anymore. So-so (and declining) power with poor defense. I prefer CC on Dodgers if we go that route. He's actually fairly good offensively and defensively.
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the Twins are at the wrong point in the rebuild curve to trade premium prospects for injury prone, expensive 30 yr olds. Regardless of the position of the players involved. The conversation changes if a guy like Stanton is involved though. I would trade anyone and give his agent a blank check for a contract extension. I don't have a problem adding really good players like Cargo when the cost is cash and some minor prospects but the Rockies will be aiming higher than a salary dump. I understand the fascination with Kemp but nobody that has ever been critical of how much money Mauer makes should want Kemp. Kemp is practically guaranteed to be 20M in dead weight by the end of the contract. I wouldn't sign kemp to that contract (5/100ishM) if he were a FA and I certainly wouldn't give up anything to do it.
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Do you think these liabilities are that much different than the liabilities that Drew, Santana and Morales had when they were shut out of the FA market last year? Santana finally signed but really late in the offseason. I also wouldn't call it the Baltimore model. Teams did this for a long time in the arbitration system before QO's. It's a little early to make this statement especially when players and agents have the ramifications of declining the QO. Two players last year didn't get signed until June, missed spring training and had awful seasons killing their FA value this offseason. The borderline players on the list don't want to be in that position despite what Boras whispers in their ear.
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A 36 yr old broken down former catcher coming off of a career season? An often injured steroid linked 34 yr old slugger that is a liability in the OF? A 31 yr old inconsistent pitcher that has topped 165 innings once in his career? A 32 yr old catcher that had his best season since 2007? It will be interesting to see which guys opt for FA but I could easily see any of the above getting the cold shoulder in FA. Teams don't line up to offer multi-year big buck deals to these types. Add in the draft pick effect and it's even more difficult.
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I still think the Dodgers/Twins could match up on Crawford for Nolasco. The Dodgers free up an OF spot and save money while the Twins get a good LF'er for 8M/season (if you consider Nolasco a sunk cost). Kemp is obviously better with higher upside but I'm not seeing the Twins picking up 5 years of contract for a broken player. I also don't see the Twins going after Crawford and his 3 years but that's more palatable. I'm also not sure the Dodgers want to move Kemp. CC and Ethier are the guys they want to move even if Kemp's name is out there.
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Heyward won't be traded if the price is a top 5-10 prospect. Heyward is nothing like Herschel Walker. He's also in the final year of his contract and has been a disappointment offensively. He makes for an interesting potential FA in 2015. A 26 yr old with upside. BJ couldn't be given away much less bring in guys like Plouffe and Thorpe.
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It's almost certain that Cuddyer will accept that offer. No doubt. There will be others that accept as well unlike last year. I don't understand why the market will go crazy if this happens. Liriano is a more interesting case. Teams need pitching but Liriano has so many red flags that make a 3-4 year contract a no go for many teams. The draft pick loss eliminates more teams. He might have not have any teams in on him this offseason. I could easily see Liriano getting the Santana treatment if he declines.
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I don't think it's so crazy. I broke down my thoughts on who would get QO's a month+ ago in a different thread and I thought teams would give a lot more offers than others thought. For some of the players (like Liriano and Martin) it's a matter of having the ability to fit a 1 yr contract into budget. I didn't think Cuddyer would get an offer but that was due to the Rockies team direction (rebuild) and if he was on a different team (a contender) I could easily see a team locking him in for one more year. Teams are scared of multiyear contracts for guys like Cuddyer or VMart but the damage is limited on a 1 yr deal even if it is an overpay per season. A not so bold prediction. Santana is turning that offer down and he will get the contract (or more) he wanted last offseason despite the draft pick loss. We will however see some guys accept the offer unlike last offseason. Quite a few guys that teams aren't going to be excited about committing multiple years to on the list so far and it gets tougher for them when there is a draft pick attached to their FA signing.
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Ricky Rubio - for better or worse I don't think the Wolves had many options here. Saving cap space is only important if you can sign FA's. And Rubio is a pretty solid player but probably not a championship team leader. That's a problem to face when the team is a playoff team though.
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Long term I think he has a better chance to not kill a team in LF/RF than 3B. Long term I think he's a 1B/DH and I think that happens quicker than it did with MCab. Arcia's end will be the result of him not adjusting to MLB pitching. If he starts putting up a .800-.850 OPS then the Twins will deal with the defensive issues because if he does put up those numbers then the Twins could have 3 OF'ers with .800-.900+ bats and another at DH in Vargas. That's a sick lineup. Or the Twins have a <25 yr old, cost controlled bat that is hitting .800+ OPS available in a trade.
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We need to be done with the days of mediocre defenders and poor defense 3B is going to hurt the team more than a poor LF'er. He might be athletic but I think his defense at any position will at best be viewed as adequate by some. Less than adequate by others. I hope the reasoning isn't because of Plouffe but rather that Sano needs considerable time in the minors if he is going to play anything but a brutal 3B at the MLB level. I think his bat is ready to come up sometime next year but it could be quite awhile for the defense to be ready. Similar to the decision with Harper a few years ago.
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Less players were offered QO last year also. This system is far better even for players like Cuddyer. In the old system a guy like Cuddyer could have been offered arb. At that point he could accept or decline. If he accepted he might only get 10-12M in arb (less than the QO) and if he declined he would still have draft pick compensation. The difference between now and then is that the names are a little bigger and teams are even more protective of their draft picks. Before their were several players each year that resigned with their original teams on 1-2 yr contracts but they were lesser players. I think the next CBA will eliminate this but to do so the MLBPA will have to agree to hard slotting and an int'l draft with hard slotting. That's why they allowed this nonsense to continue in this CBA.
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I have always thought the Plouffe dislikers that have complained about his defense would just shake their heads when Sano started playing defense at 3rd base. I approve.
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Better add Duensing to this trade... Yes and no. Teams play 3 game series and they don't juggle their rotation to get different looks. The only thing that I would like to avoid is having 5 soft tossing low K pitchers in the rotation but that has more to do with the upside of such a rotation being low.
