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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    He has rated at about even (0) UZR in the corners. That probably translates to -10 to -20 UZR/150 in CF. If you calculate his WAR with those numbers then you come to a very, very different conclusion than the one above. that is the point.
  2. kab21
    It won't take a sea-change moment for the Twins to sign a 5M prospect. It would take a sea-change moment for the Twins to sign a 30M prospect (plus 100% tax) like Moncada. It doesn't matter if Ruiz is Cuban, Japanese, Brazilian or Estonian at those prices.
  3. kab21
    They have continued to spend internationally after signing Sano and now they apparently have a BIG deal in place for one of the top prospects this summer. The Sano signing was a complete mindset shift for the whole org. But it really comes down to whether or not it's a prospect price tag or if it is really significant money. They aren't spending Cespedes, Puig, Soler, Moncada or Castillo type money on a Cuban. That is very unlikely but <10M is possible.
  4. kab21
    They are already rumored to have a deal in place for Wander Javier that likely puts them at the max or over it. I doubt they are going to sign just one int'l FA this year (starting July 1st). If you are going over then you might as well sign every prospect you can get. The same was said when they were pursuing Sano. The big deciding factor is whether or not this Cuban is considered a prospect (pricewise) and can be signed for 5M or if he is going to get 20+M (+100% tax) like other high profile Cubans have gotten.
  5. kab21
    Wouldn't you say that Meyer was one of the first signs that the Twins were shifting their focus from the likely cause of that drought? For too many years the Twins went after control type college pitchers that lacked significant upside (aside from Garza). Now they are at least bringing in pitchers with stuff in trades, the draft and internationally.
  6. kab21
    We can judge an individual move as working out or not but criticizing the new emphasis the Twins have in pitchers (stuff), the FO, the AAA pitching coach or anyone else based on one risky prospect is silly.
  7. kab21
    If the Twins are going to exceed the bonus pools then they should spend like drunken sailors. Too many good MLB pitchers? That problem does not exist. The Cardinals have a model where someone gets injured and they call up an actual mid-rotation starter from AAA instead what the Twins have. worst case is that the Twins can trade from this supposed excess of early to mid 20 something year old mid rotation starters.
  8. kab21
    So a team is going to be criticized by inability to develop pitchers in the minors? One of the biggest reasons that the Twins weren't developing any good pitchers is that they weren't filling their minors with upside guys (Garza aside) for several years. They were drafting the next Slowey/Baker types (fine pitchers but limited). Regardless of how this trade ends up working out (and the Revere trade) or the Stewart draft I am happy that they have changed their process. It has to be considered a given that a certain number of pitching prospects will bust. Criticizing a team because the first high upside guy that they added MIGHT bust is shortsighted. Meyer was always a risk and I have always chuckled a little at those that are naming every pitching prospect the Twins have and claiming that there won't be enough room in the rotation.
  9. kab21
    Ugh... It's a sample size problem. One season of UZR isn't even enough so <2 months is a pitiful sample to make any conclusions on a player being historically bad (measured vs his current peers). There is no doubt that Myers is a bad defensive CF'er but I highly doubt his true talent level is -57 on the UZR compared to other CF'ers. Using a 3 year sample (recommended for defensive stats) there are only 8 players at any position (min = 2000 inn) that have been worse than -10 UZR/150 (Willingham is one). When I say historically bad I understand that it is measured vs their positional defensive peers but nobody is even on the same scale as Myers 2 month sample. That leads me to believe that the problem is sample size. If someone wanted to hypothesize the above argument then they should pick someone that has multiple seasons of defensive data. Miguel Cabrera for example wasn't even remotely close to neutralized by playing out of position. His WAR numbers didn't really change when he was moving between 1B and 3B. Neither was Choo in his 1 and only season of playing CF.
  10. kab21
    This is of course predicated on whether or not you think hitting and defense can quantified on the same scale and whether or not Myers is really worth -57 runs for an entire season. I don't think anyone believes that Myers is good at CF defense but is he really historically bad? I have no problem with what the padres are doing.
  11. kab21
    Is it worth mentioning that the Twins frequently have infielders playing all over the place as they come up in the minors? Plouffe played 25 games at 3B in 2006 and 43 games at 3B in 2008. He was always primarily a SS but he did actually play other positions like many infielders do in the Twins system. It's stange that Plouffe's biggest problem at SS seems to have fixed itself. He wasn't rangy but neither was JJ Hardy. Plouffe's biggest problem was that he couldn't hit the 1Bman consistently. He was all over the place. Perhaps 3B is perfect since range is less important and he gets the ball sooner with a little more time and doesn't need to rush his throws.
  12. kab21
    So does this mean that the 'he will get more playing time in the minors' angle was inaccurate? I think he did something to end up in the doghouse and this is a message.
  13. kab21
    I'm more in this camp when players are being told to be patient at the plate. It's a benefit to do so for the reasons listed above (run up the pitch count, allow other hitters to see and time pitches, give the team a break, etc...) but the main motivation should be stay away from pitches where you can't make good contact. In addition to that players should take advantage of hitter counts and look only for certain pitches that are most likely being thrown (like a fastball). It's a lot easier to hit a 93 mph fastball if you aren't guarding against the chance of a curve/change or every location. If it's not your pitch then let it go.
  14. kab21
    Flip = Kahn if Towns isn't the top pick. I'm interested in if and what they can flip Gorgui for. He's a nice player and young but he doesn't have a role with Towns. I also am interested if they can land the Euro MVP this offseason. And before anyone says it - Pek can't be traded unless they take back a contract that is just as ugly. That is kind of self defeating since it would be good for Towns/Pek to split the C role for a season or two. Gorgui should have some good value though. They are starting to run out of minutes to play these young players especially if Bjelica comes over.
  15. kab21
    Perhaps Plouffe has to be my new favorite player (don't currently have one) to replace Cuddyer.
  16. kab21
    Strawman arguments. Nobody and I mean nobody says Sano needs to become an elite level fielder. I think he is several years away from the possibility (not certainty) of playing defense anywhere near Plouffe. In some ways it compares to Harper and Myers. Both were catchers and would have had to stay in the minors at least another 2 years (guess) for their defense to be acceptable but probably still poor. Instead they moved positions and were fasttracked. Sano's bat should be ready sometime between 9/2015 and 6/2016. I'm not willing to wait an additional 2 years (guess) for adequate but below average defense or put up with one of the worst fielders in the majors for a couple of years.
  17. kab21
    Actually to be a full time DH on the Twins he needs to hit a fair amount better than whatever career utility player is DHing. I'm not particularly upset that Vargas was sent down. I'm very frustrated that we are going to have utility IF'ers playing DH and/or RF/LF. Again. Every #$%^#$$# year.
  18. kab21
    I was in the 75+ range (IIRC) at the beginning but after those first couple of weeks I was in full blown 'here we go again' disgust already planning discussions on how high the draft pick would be (again). Now I'm okay adding a couple of wins but not quite .500.
  19. kab21
    I see the Twins Miguel being several seasons ahead of the Marlins/Tigers Miguel in the 'we can't have this guy at 3B' talk. MCab only played 2 full seasons at 3B (30+ games 2 other seasons) for the Marlins at age 23/24. It seemed like more but Lowell was the 3Bman for the 1st 2.5 seasons and in some ways is the Twins' Plouffe. The Tigers only played Cabrera at 3B because they went all in on offense with VMart and Prince with zero other options at 3B. It's not a move that they wanted to make but roster construction necessitated it.
  20. kab21
    I can understand Vargas getting sent down but not considering the other player options. I really hate the idea of starting utility IF'ers at DH. This really burns me. I also think way too much is being read into the benefit of Vargas playing in AAA vs being on the bench in PIT. He has been getting sat in American League games. The only thing that I can think of is that there is a message being sent and in some way Vargas has been dogging it. Bernier just happens to be the live body that benefits from this situation. Such begins the time of the Molitor doghouse for young players.
  21. kab21
    I found one more team that was doing it so I posted something. tbh it's not really a big deal since the root cause is that this league is awful for parity and distribution of players. The 5 player MLB draft didn't help that at all when we had it. I'm actually wondering how long we can keep it going w/o losing 5 owners every offseason.
  22. kab21
    I said something about on the chat board last week and Brutus stopped but I see that others are doing it in your matchups. The funny thing is that I looked back several weeks and it actually did cost DemGrinders a game which may or may not be important come playoff time. Probably not since his team is a powerhouse. I have always felt that the 5th spot should be a flex SP/RP spot since there just isn't enough SP'ing in this league. My team has an awesome record but I feel like it is held together by superglue and it could unravel at any moment. It's still a playoff team but it just can't compete with Dem and TRad.
  23. kab21
    I hate this.
  24. kab21
    18% in the minors by a non power hitter that wasn't young for his leagues is kind of iffy. Typically K's go up a little or at best stay the same when they hit the majors. But there are players that make it work. Brett Gardner for example. His K rate is a large reason that he is a .267 career hitter. Gardner makes it work by translating his MiLB walks to the majors, having an above average BAPIP and hitting 6-10 HR's/yr. With that being said JBJ did have high BB rates (don't always translate), did show 6-10 HR power (not in the majors yet) and had high BAPIP's (most prospects do). I would buy low on him but he is kind of a hit (average ballplayer) or miss (Shafer) type. I might wait a month and see if Hicks flops again though. Maybe his leg kick is the answer.
  25. kab21
    These kind of trades are incredibly rare. This is more like a fantasy baseball trade. The kind of trade that is possible is May or Gibson for Bradley if that matched the two team's needs. If the Twins could buy low on JBJ and he became the player you thought then the move would be to spin off Buxton in a second major trade. But you aren't going to be able to do it in one trade. Especially since Boston has Mookie Betts and Castillo. I also don't think JBJ is the player that you think he is. He had fairly high K rates in the minor except for one half season and he won't hit for much power at the MLB level. He can become a starter but most likely he would be a below average one.
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