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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    That would make Santiago more like Suzuki. Nolasco is by far the worst pitcher in baseball for the last 3 years. He doesn't belong on a baseball field at this point. I almost expect Santiago to completely fall apart because that tends to happen with Twins pitchers when they either come here or after signing extensions.
  2. kab21
    Nolasco and Santiago are nothing alike. Santiago has a 3.68 career ERA (4.25 this year) and Nolasco has a 4.58 career ERA (and 3 seasons of 5+ ERA). The Twins paid for that improvement with an intriguing but oft-injured and inconsistent prospect.
  3. kab21
    This is a cash neutral deal so I don't get too excited about the dumping Nolasco part other than he can't pitch for the Twins anymore. The Twins could have just DFA'd him. I am bummed at the deal because of the mismanagement of Meyer. But this is where the Twins were with him. He has been hurt and he completely imploded last year so it wasn't all the Twins fault but there was wasted potential and the Angels could potentially hit big on this trade. Of course I expect to see the 'I told you so's' to come after Meyer has 10 great games. I don't see any way that Meyer can pitch 3 full seasons without a major arm surgery. Overall though I like this trade though. The rotation next year is deplorably awful. Getting Santiago reduces the chances that the Twins go out and sign another aging 4/50M pitcher next year. He could potentially be dealt next year for a better prospect but I really hate the idea of adding more declining pitchers to long term contracts. Busenitz is another potential reliever for the Twins. Nothing special but depth.
  4. kab21
    There is a difference between picking and choosing among a teams prospects and the pu-pu platter. Right now people are talking about pitching prospects that rank near the top of the other teams prospect list. That won't be the level of prospect that is returned. Santana's WAR is meaningless as far as trade value. Opposing teams aren't excited about 33 yr old pitchers with 2.5 yr contracts. Plus fangraphs WAR is based on FIP instead of xFIP. And I have said all along that the Twins might as well keep him since it is unlikely that they will get a decent prospect(s) for him.
  5. kab21
    I think people are quite over optimistic about Santana's trade value. I hope but don't expect a trade to get a borderline top 100 prospect but I don't expect it. I could see a trade where the players are named and everyone (including the minors experts) has to search for information about them. I think Suzuki gets traded and probably Abad for a trivial prospect. I think one of Nolasco or Milone get cut during August.
  6. kab21
    No Trade veterans if the return is decent but start teaching the youngsters how to win. I think if the team goes .500+ in the 2nd half it would have a benefit on the team in 2017/2018.
  7. kab21
    These are professional athletes playing 6 games per week. It is unlikely that they feel 100% healthy most of the season. I know that I routinely had small nagging injuries all the time during the various HS/college sports that I played. I kept playing just like everyone that I knew.
  8. kab21
    So you would dismiss lucky results in the 2nd half of this year but you won't dismiss the awful luck from the 1st half of this year? It seems that nobody will admit at just how terribly unlucky the Twins were at the beginning this year. They were never as bad as they played but nearly everyone hit way below what was expected or pitched terribly. Usually some players outperform while others underperform and it balances out.
  9. kab21
    I think the best case is that Rosario is viewed like Dozier and Plouffe are now. And really, really streaky. We saw the cold streak in April. I wouldn't bring him up for awhile or until there is an obvious opening. Kepler is a tough case. I think he needs more time in AAA but I think he is out of options after year. He kind of needs to establish himself this year.
  10. kab21
    It is more about projection imo. Polanco projects as a fine player but Kepler has far more potential offensively. I could see a very good argument for placing Polanco as high as #3 and Kepler at #2 though.
  11. kab21
    Arcia wasn't in the equation but it was going to take an act of God to remove Mauer from the lineup this year or next regardless of his decline. They have basically locked themselves into a lineup of Mauer/Park/Sano in some combination of 1B/DH/RF. And Vargas basically has to be cut because I am not sure he can even be promoted unless one of those 3 is on the DL. But when you are bad then you don't worry about where to play everyone. Just add more talent to the org and then you can trade an excess like you say.
  12. kab21
    So far this is encouraging. My only problem with acquiring Park is the odd roster construction that is forced on the Twins especially if Arcia's hot streak is legit but he could be a great value. Best news is that it increases the Twins brand in Asia and I live in Asia. I plan on going to South Korea in a year or two and watching a baseball game and it would be really cool to see Twins caps or people coming up to me if I wear a Twins cap.
  13. kab21
    Sano doesn't have a natural defensive position. The Twins are just hoping that they can hide his defensive liabilities in the field because he won't be a good fielder. Right now they aren't going to play him at multiple different positions this season. Just let him hit.
  14. kab21
    I think it is fine to call a top prospect up for 2-3 weeks and be a bench player. There is a lot to absorb by just being around the MLB team. More than a month and the player needs reps. I think we will see Polanco play 2-3 times/wk. I can see the Twins getting Nunez 1-2 days off and possibly a day off for Dozier or Escobar.
  15. kab21
    I don't understand the willingness to let Tonkin go. He averages 94mph, has a 3.35 career MLB ERA, a 2.65 AAA ERA, gets a lot of GB's and hasn't actually given up a lot of hits.
  16. kab21
    These are the types of players that good teams have waiting in AAA to call up when players get injured. I see way too much focus on how player X doesn't have a clear path to the starting lineup and no focus on having depth such that when the inevitable injury occurs there isn't a big drop off in performance. If Dozier gets injured (Polanco traded or at SS because Escobar was traded) then the Twins are looking at Santana or Beresford (or some other AAAA player) in the starting lineup. Big dropoff. If Sano at 3B gets injured then the Twins have Nunez at 3B (if Plouffe is traded). Depth is very important.
  17. kab21
    I really don't the issue with signing Bastardo to a 3/18 contract. He would be getting paid about the same as Jepsen and a little more than milone. If you need to save money then trade Milone and move May to the rotation. Bastardo might be better than May in the bullpen and May is likely better than Milone. The years really don't both me. The walks really don't bother me. The prospect of Fien in the 7th/8th inning bothers me though.
  18. kab21
    That really has nothing to do with trading Plouffe. The few teams that could have traded for Plouffe have addressed 3B and didn't give up much to do so. This was basically one of the worst offseasons to have a player like Plouffe on the trade block. 3B is a really deep position right now.
  19. kab21
    Great sample size of one. And that one is contending to be a top 5 player of all time. The skepticism as to when he is ready is justified though. At this point he almost too talented to be a complete bust but who knows what he will be. At least a competent starter imo.
  20. kab21
    I think it is a little over-optimistic to expect all players to work out and not be injured. Pitchers could adjust to Rosario and he can't hit enough to be an MLB starter. Park might not be able to adjust to MLB pitching. Kepler probably has the most upside but good prospects flop all of the time. Buxton is almost too talented to not work out but it could happen. The Twins OF could be stacked in a year or two but it is also possible that it is merely decent after a bust or two and a disappointment.
  21. kab21
    I think Kepler's chance at making the team on opening day are <5% but there is a scenario that exists. If Buxton is headed to AAA then the OF could be a mess. It might be apparent that Santana and the retreads can't cut it and Rosario becomes the CF by default. A combination of not wanting a below avg OF defense at all 3 spots and Kepler looking really good (and ready) could lead to a opening day surprise. I think it is more likely that they go with a retread for a month or two until it becomes painfully obvious but possibly (small chance) not. I think everybody is expected Kepler to regress. The thing about his stats is that he has always had good K:BB ratios. Obviously he won't maintain a 1:1 ratio or BAPIP .359 long term but regressed stats still look very good.
  22. kab21
    I haven't used SDI before but fangraphs flat out says that 3 years of UZR data is needed for the sample size to be sufficient. If someone combines his 3 yrs of SDI data together it shows an average fielder and if someone wants to claim that he is in decline defensively then 3 yrs of data would be needed. As of right now the only thing we can say based on stats is that he is an average defender.
  23. kab21
    there appears to be some sort of disconnect. I posted the ERA's to show that RP'ers naturally perform better than starting pitchers for many reasons that have been stated. Milone to go from an average SP'er to above average RP'er is pretty difficult to envision. Do you see any reason that Milone would become a better than average RP'er (let's target 3.25 ERA)? I think that is very unlikely but I think that is very likely from May. Which brings me back to my original point that you seem to endorse. May SP > Milone SP (May is not even guaranteed to be better but there is upside) May RP >>>>>>>> Milone RP It is very unlikely that Milone's stuff plays up in the bullpen for any of the reasons that Mike previously stated. It is very likely that Mays' stuff plays up and the stats (not a huge sample size) back that up so far. Of course Milone could take the Perkins route to stardom in the bullpen but that is rare for someone that throws 87. Even if he added 3-4 mph to his fastball like Perkins he is only hitting 90-91.
  24. kab21
    Forget about ERA. Do you see anything in his profile that indicates that he would be better as a RP'er than as a SP'er? There are reasons that SP'ers go to the bullpen (you have mentioned some) and get better. Milone doesn't fit that profile. And I will ask this again. Can you envision him as a good 7th/8th inning guy? This is what an above average RP'er is.
  25. kab21
    Actually you can compare ERA's and make a guess as to whether or not Milone will see the same improvement when moving to the pen. And if you are going to consider Milone an above average RP'er then he should be in the 3.25 ERA range (.50ish better than average). Do you think that is likely? I think no for both. Or we could phrase it a different way. Would you put him anywhere near the 8th inning (setup guy role)?
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