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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    I just don't see any similarities in their defense other than neither is particularly good defensively. Right now I take Bryant at #4 if he's there and force one of Sano, Bryant and possibly Harrison to play there unless Plouffe blows up this year. Despite all of Plouffe's criticisms he is probably better than this trio.
  2. kab21
    Meyer with a good but not great game. 6IP, 5H, 4ER, 3BB, 8K 92 pitches and 51 strikes His strike:ball ratio seems a little poor. I'm guessing he is going to struggle a little as a rookie since MLB'ers won't chase as much and he could be in for a 100 pitch games that end before the 6th inning. But I'm still pretty excited that a pitcher with real stuff is coming up for the Twins.
  3. kab21
    The type of hitter that you are concerned about are the easiest type of player to find in FA or trades. Everyone thinks Willingham was really cheap and a great pickup. He has certainly outperformed his contract but older sluggers with no defensive value don't break the bank in FA. The Twins have a chance to fill every up the middle position and 3B with +.150 isoP guys. Mauer, Rosario, Sano, Harrison, Hicks and Buxton. Most teams have weak hitters at so many of those positions that it balances out their sluggers.
  4. kab21
    I wouldn't take too much credit. Max Fried (last year's top HS pitcher) has been a favorite of mine for a long time. Stewart compares favorably to him for upside and risk. the thing with Stewart this year is that there aren't multiple college pitchers out there like last year. The Twins will likely have their pick of Bryant or Manaea and a trio of HS hitters (Meadows, Frazier and Denney) to pick from. Right now the HS hitters don't have buxton no doubt best player buzz going for them. That leaves one of the two college players and comparably risky HS hitters. I think it's close enough that Stewart can move ahead of the HS'ers. Bryant is no doubt #3 for me and I'm still unsure about Manaea. He is a college pitcher but he does have pretty good upside and less risk.
  5. kab21
    He has been a balanced hitter throughout the minors. But he was a balanced masher. He's a legit middle of the order bat. The other problem in this thread is that people are acting like the Twins have a bunch of singles hitters coming up. that isn't true at all. Many of the guys might not profile as 20-30 HR guys but they will be racking up doubles.
  6. kab21
    My only hesitation is 'how much of a project is he'. His fastball is great. His slider has a lot of potential but is still a work in progress and his change isn't much currently. It's really a question of how much risk because it could really hurt the Twins to get nothing with this pick.
  7. kab21
    .750 is pretty much the minimum acceptable number for a hitter with zero defensive value. And even then I look for a replacement.
  8. kab21
    I don't think that is the Ryan doumit going forward.
  9. kab21
    This is one reason that I think Bryant is a great pick at #4. Pitching is a big need but a middle of the order bat that would need <2 seasons in the minors sounds awesome.
  10. kab21
    I also feel that Frazier and Meadows have lost a little buzz. Bryant is pretty much locked in at #3 for me while the two pitchers, the two prep OF'ers and a wild card (prep catcher) are trying to make a case for #4. I'm trying to force either of the pitchers into that spot but I feel a little uneasy with Manaea and Stewart is pretty risky and is a project.
  11. kab21
    I watched some video of Bryant fielding grounders and I got a very different impression. They might have about the same chance of staying at 3B but they seem like very different defensive players. Bryant isn't nearly as big as Sano and I think Sano has more growing to do before the majors. Bryant seems to move well baserunning but he seemed quite stiff fielding grounders. I dunno know why but how he received grounders bothered me also. A couple of youtube videos - !
  12. kab21
    I think it's hard to score runs when you have below average hitters at several positions. With the guys coming up in 2 years I think the Twins could have 7 .750+ OPS bats in the lineup. If there are a couple of legitimately above average bats (Mauer, Sano and maybe Arcia or buxton a year or two later) that will be a really good offense regardless if they only have 1 guy with over 20 HR's.
  13. kab21
    I also think Doumit is overrated. His defense isn't good enough to catch a lot and his bat really isn't good enough to be a full time DH. This is of course why he was a cheap FA. The reality is that you aren't going to be able to trade him for much so his value is catching 1-2 days/wk, spot starting and PH'ing. It's always nice to have that legit bat off the bench instead of some AAA scrub.
  14. kab21
    I was hoping that they would spend some money this past offseason as long as they avoided a long term contract. I hope they do it next year since they will have even more money to work with. The problem with moving the goalposts is that there is only so many FA's out there and most of them sign ridiculous contracts. If you are going to really move the goalposts forward then it probably will come at the expense of the farm system like the Royals. Right now I'm just happy that the Twins prospects are moving the goalposts forward and several of them are poised to play at 2 levels this season. We will know more about Buxton's, Sano's, Rosario's and Meyer's timing after the first half is finished. Do they get promoted? Are they holding their own at the next level?
  15. kab21
    I guess it also depends on how well his defense develops. If he becomes the .680 hitter with sloppy defense then he is Luis rivas. If he does hit 10-15 HR's and picks up a few walks he can push that OPS over .750 and he's an actual asset in the lineup instead of that weak hitter that you bury at the bottom and wish you could replace every year. Just to be clear I said he might not walk a lot but I didn't say he had plate discipline. His problem (like Revere) is that he puts swings in play and the count simply doesn't get to ball four very often.
  16. kab21
    I hope you are using more than this his draft position to backup your analysis. Nobody is in the Harper range of talent FWIW. And I have no idea why you are discussing two college pitchers that moved fast. Are you hoping to distract everyone from how wrong you were originally?
  17. kab21
    You can't flip Doumit for anything until he starts hitting and even then he won't bring back a lot. It's better to keep as the backup catchup, occasional DH and PH.
  18. kab21
    Castellanos might have been the 44th pick but he was not well down the talent pool. He was an overslot pick and has one of the nicest swings in the minors.
  19. kab21
    that is one thing about arm injuries. Usually they were caused by something and if you don't fix that something then there's a good chance you could get injured again.
  20. kab21
    The two big questions that concern me about Polanco are if he'll ever walk more than 5% of the time and if he will hit for any power. He's a little bit Revere-esque in his high contact approach. He's obviously not as fast but he should (almost definitely) have more power. The concern - His upside becomes pretty limited with low walks and low power even if he is hitting .285+. He's starter but not a very good one.
  21. kab21
    For the first time ever I agree with something Thrylos typed. Between this and Nick's post there is a pretty good summary of WAR. Currently it's probably the best metric for valuing players (min of one season required). The hitting valuations are much better than defense and pitching though. At best someone should use multiple seasons to roughly determine player's value though. Looking at one month (like Dave) or even a single season can be misleading. I also discount players that only have a decent WAR because of position played and good defense. If a player can't hit then he's not very good even if he manages a 2-3 WAR. I find it a bit ironic that they strip luck out of the pitching stats and use FIP but they don't take luck out of the hitting stats.
  22. kab21
    The Twins should take all 4 games again today. These teams are hot. Sano with a pair of doubles and Levi wants to be a prospect again with a HR. Pinto also with a pair of doubles as this hitting spree continues. Perhaps we have seen the last of Butera. Polanco with 3 hits including a 3B. Now hitting .357. Buxton also with a 3B and a BB. Berrios :go:May
  23. kab21
    The thing that is wrong is that he doesn't have an above average pitch. He has 4 MLB caliber pitches but none of them can be an out pitch. This was the knock against him (along with injury issues) the entire time he was cruising through the minors and the center of some heated debates on BYTO. I think there was an article here that described this a while back.
  24. kab21
    Using past performances is part of projections but it's not the only part. The Twins haven't had a great starting staff in the last 5 years but their issues until recently have been the front end starter. The Twins have had several good middle and bottom of the rotation arms. I'm pretty sure every Twins fan has wanted the team to add an ace but that's not all that easy. Target Field isn't a blank check for the team. Additionally Liriano's disappointing TJ recovery and Gibson's TJ set this team back fairly far as far as adding very good starters to the team. Gutierrez, Hunt, Bashore and Wimmers completely flopping didn't help at all either.
  25. kab21
    What to do with Plouffe? Play him.
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