Jocko87

Lots of good talk about player development and rightly so but I think the main thing we should be discussing in relation to the Twins drafting/player development strategy is that they appear to be pivoting from a draft and develop for every spot organization into a draft the best prospects and trade to fill needs organization. The next 6 years for sure are win now mode and prospects will be sacrificed for the good of the big league team. This will end up being a lot of college shortstops, center fielders and pitchers. I think they have adjusted a bit and we wont see many more Sabato type picks going forward. Versatility trades well.

Except for $20 insert shortstop and for peanuts insert starting pitcher or literally any other position. Get to work meme makers. What a great problem to have and a welcome change in approach from the organization. Do not be surprised if the #5 pick this year is another shortstop either. I don't know the draft board, maybe its the second round pick. Get talent, turn it into what fits best. I love it. I also love Brooks. I got to watch one of the AA playoff games from behind the dugout last year and the dude is impressive. I'm speaking mostly from a body language standpoint here, many others will do the on field. Hugely impressive to watch him interact with a new team in the playoffs after what had to be a whirlwind year. Obvious coaches kid and carries an uncommon confidence that damn few would have in that situation. Also took the loss hard, harder than his new teammates. Selfishly I'm hoping to watch him play in Wichita for a good long time but want that to be because everyone on the big squad is healthy and raking. I'm going to enjoy it while I can.

I'm not a scout by any means and some pitchers won't be good for this model. I most often see Ober mentioned as someone who needs to stay a starter and thats fine. Part of the development is sorting that out. There is only a one or two spots for doing this any given year and AAA needs starters too. For the same reasons they should be playing other sports growing up, they should be situationally flexible as pitchers. It develops different muscles.

This may be more of a pitching development observation but it also directly affects the bullpen. With young starting pitching depth we should be looking for places to get them major league experience and it doesn't have to be starting. Just like they build up their arms for length I think its just as important for most players to get built up to handling major league hitters. Sure, there will still be guys that can go straight to the rotation but unfortunately that's a huge jump that a lot of guys don't make well. I look at it like the NFL and QBs. Every year we see 2-6 guys drafted and thrown into the fire as some sort of savior and what happens? Pass/Fail and Mahomes and Burrow are the outliers. As much as I hate to say it, I expect Jordan Love to be good in Green Bay. Drew Rasmussen of the Rays, who develop pitching pretty well, is a great example of this. He did a great hour long interview with MLB radio a couple of weeks ago that got me thinking. He was a very highly touted prospect with injury issues that bounced around a bit. I found a short audio clip of the relevant part but the whole hour was a good listen. Basically he was put in the bullpen to figure things out and just developed into the rotation. Had he stayed healthy he probably goes straight to the rotation as hes always been very talented-only 74 minor league innings. Point is, every pitcher is figuring things out and they all develop differently. The constant is that getting major leaguers out consistantly is hard and the gap from AAA is larger than any other gap in the path. I think we should be embracing throwing prospects into the major league bullpen. Winder Ober, Varland and SWR should all be in this mix. We know they have good enough stuff to be successful in good situations. Rocco can get them started with favorable match ups and build confidence and technique from there. Doing well with one inning? Heres two, now three. Now one in high leverage and so on. Maybe they add a tick in velocity and can keep it as they build up to starting. Maybe they become Duran and they are stuck there. Maybe we find out they can't hack and we can cut bait earlier. All good outcomes in my opinion that are even worth starting a service clock early. I'm comfortable with the bullpen this year simply because the overall pitching depth is much better. As long as the Twins are willing to use these resources to get outs regardless of what part of the game it is they will be fine.

Looking forward to it!

Brad Hand rumor, DFA Pagan. Off-season done?

Does anyone have a good idea how the new shift rules are going to affect the defensive metrics? As mentioned, these are much less dependable metrics than pitching and hitting and going forward we will likely value a different type of defender. Runs saved/OAA will be more tied to range?

Also Maeda as an experienced option if by some miracle all the starter options stay healthy. The overall pitching depth is much better than last year and that has to flow to the bullpen somehow. I don't know that they are betting on this any differently than they are betting on any other position group. Its a plan and as plans go I'm OK with it-first fire inbound. Well, OK except for the Pagan part, unless they see him as a low leverage rubber arm I'll be nervous.

Sorry I'm late to this conversation as it took me a long time to figure out how to log in again but I have been wanting to say this for a while. Steve Cohen was never going to spend $315m on Correa after the Giants deal fell through. Initially, I was on board with the thinking that he over committed over cocktails but the more I think about it from the business side Cohen is either an amazing negotiator or an amazing *******, but probably both. There is nothing a $20b hedge fund manager likes more than a distressed asset, especially if they see value add opportunities. Its real estate investing 101 and it applies here as well. If you are a hedge fund manager that has already paid almost $2 billion in fines for insider trading its also not a stretch to work to further distress that asset to improve the price. He and Boras could have agreed on any number and it would not have mattered, I'm convinced he was going this route from the beginning. Now that we can see the terms and poison pills the Mets were laying out Cohen was obviously not planning on paying more luxury tax and was more than happy to get the player on ridiculously favorable terms if Correa felt he was stuck. Frankly, good on Boras for getting him out of that situation. Another agent might not have been able to save it for his client. I have no issue being the third choice on this deal, the Twins nailed the market value of the player from the jump and they should be credited for that. At one point I was concerned that Correa would sign with the Mets for roughly what the Twins had offered which would have left a very sour taste in my mouth. We would have all justifiably felt like it was all lip service. It would also be the most Minnesota way to lose a player. However, when I think about it in these terms I'm completely comfortable with the way it played out. The Giants situation seems fairly straightforward and for 65m I couldn't be mad at him leaving. The Mets and Cohen shouldn't affect our thinking as it was not a normal baseball transaction. Normal in the hedge fund business maybe but we haven't seen a lot of negotiations like this in sports. Boras is obviously pissed but can't say a whole lot publicly. It will also be fascinating watching Boras and Cohen in the coming years. Remember a similar situation with Kumar Rocker? Boras client as well. Cohen may be winning in the short term but when agents realize what they are dealing with Mets offers won't even help to drive up negotiations. I've thought from the beginning of the Correa era in Minnesota that this pattern could repeat and be a solid road map for small market teams. Go after superstar talent in a one year prove it situation and try to sign long term if you like them. Win win on both sides and with a guy like Boras driving the change it has a chance to happen again even without a lockout factor.

I was lucky enough to catch his lone home double AA appearance last year and from my vantage point behind the dugout he carries himself with every bit of maturity and comfort that you would expect from a college coaches kid. In a one game sample he had a couple good at bats, squeaked out a couple hits and seemed functional in the field but I was mostly interested in watching him away from the ball, New team, new level, directly into the playoffs as the starting shortstop should be intimidating as hell and if it was he dealt with it well. He certainly belonged in that arena. I grabbed this picture at the end of the game. He was the only player who stayed in the dugout at all and he watched the other team celebrate for a good couple of minutes. It really struck me as something of note with the contrast to his teammates. Maybe the rest of the team was sick to death of the Midland whatevers and maybe he was just a little stunned that the wild ride was over for the year. Regardless, it stuck with me. Whatever the case he was impressive in a small sample and I'm looking forward to watching him in person for what will likely be a short time here in Wichita.